Ideas for next years Kashmir uprising

[The HBS Guy]

Actually, the sentiment for separation from India is mainly in the urban pockets of Kashmir Valley, and the Valley itself is a very small part of the state.

Include Pakstani Kashmir into it and then you'll see the whole picture.

The numbers don't favour us.

 

[Rig Vedic]

Trust me dear. I've been there and I've seen it.

If you talk of all of J&K including that on the other side of LoC and including Gilgit-Baltistan, we're simply outnumbered.

But that doesn't matter. We'll never leave Kashmir anyways.

I have seen it too - but I am giving you the figures from the polls. And IMHO, the polls underestimate India's strength ... judging from how the separatist Sajjad Lone lost his deposit.

But yes, India's position is that J&K is an integral part of India, and that position is not going to change.

 

[Rig Vedic]

Include Pakstani Kashmir into it and then you'll see the whole picture.

The numbers don't favour us.

That is a point ... but why should Mirpuris be allowed to decide that Ladakhi Buddhists should be subjected to Blasphemy laws?

 

[Rig Vedic]

That's not true.

There are so many rivers like Ganga, Yamuna etc. which originate from J&K.

We can't risk to lose the control of these vital rivers to either Pakistan or China or independent Kashmir.

Good Lord, look at a map, my dear Sir.

 

[jayron]

That's not true.

There are so many rivers like Ganga, Yamuna etc. which originate from J&K.

We can't risk to lose the control of these vital rivers to either Pakistan or China or independent Kashmir.

I thought Gangotri is in Himachal. Indus originates in Kashmir.

 

[Ras]

But I think much of the above is going to happen anyway. And it will continue until someone in India goes back to Musharraf/Jaswant and agrees to at least make the deal public and adopt it as the first step toward a resolution.

See, Musharraf/Jaswant is not an end-state. It is an evolutionary path which creates an environment within which Kashmiris *can* make their own decision. Right now, you've got heavy militarization, Kashmir has been split asunder and no credible way to hold an immediate referendum is on the horizon. I don't disagree that ultimately a fair and free plebiscite should be held. I just don't think you can do that tomorrow without first going down the Musharraf/Jaswant path.

I am 100% convinced that the status quo in Kashmir is completely unsustainable. As I also mentioned earlier, if you trend the shifting demographics over the last 63 years and project them forward, the playing field is going to become harder for the Indian Armed Forces. Before much more blood is shed and treasures are lost, it would be best to pre-empt an unpleasant future and adopt Musharraf/Jaswant post haste.

Just my opinion. Let's see what the future holds.

The percentage of Muslims in the Kashmir valley has increased while the percentage of Muslims in Jammu has decreased through the years.

The Kashmir valley is a small part of Indian held Kashmir(area wise though the most populated) and the separatist movement is confined only to the Kashmir valley. Even this summer's uprising was confined to the valley. Jammu and Ladakh had no issues and even shia dominated Kargil saw no protests.

The valley is a small enough area to be able to be suppressed with military presence. Actually if India had the Pakistan section of Kashmir also to govern she would have a very big problem because the area would have increased. In a way Pakistan did India a favor in 1947 by taking away a big portion of the Kashmir where the people want independence.

And ofcourse India is not going to let physical control of the rives go into Pakistani hands..not when water is going to be more dearer than gold in the future.

 

[TechLahore]

History has shown that no military power on earth has been able to hold a significant territory against the will of the local population for an indefinite period of time. I would suggest you re-evaluate, "the valley is a small enough area to be able to be suppressed with military presence".

Also, please understand that there is a very big price you pay, locally, domestically, internationally, in terms of perception, moral position etc. when you "suppress" millions with "military presence". You don't want this for India, and no patriotic Indian would, frankly. I think it is better to talk about solutions rather than "suppression" of a civilian population with "military presence".

 

[Rig Vedic]

I thought Gangotri is in Himachal. Indus originates in Kashmir.

Wrong on both counts!

 

[CaptainPrice]

Kashmir becoming a country and taking india+Pakistan would be the most epic scenario.But i guess in the next 10 years there wont be a border change.

 

[jayron]

Wrong on both counts!

Why don't you give away the answer instead of judging?

 

[Ras]

History has shown that no military power on earth has been able to hold a significant territory against the will of the local population for an indefinite period of time. I would suggest you re-evaluate, "the valley is a small enough area to be able to be suppressed with military presence".

Also, please understand that there is a very big price you pay, locally, domestically, internationally, in terms of perception, moral position etc. when you "suppress" millions with "military presence". You don't want this for India, and no patriotic Indian would, frankly. I think it is better to talk about solutions rather than "suppression" of a civilian population with "military presence".

Actually the world is full of spots where area is held down forcibly...China holds down Tibet,Russia holds down the entire Caucasus, Spain holds down Basque,Turkey holds down the Kurdish lands etc etc. If you look at the map Kashmir valley is relatively a very small area with a tiny percentage of India's population.

I really do not see what India pays internationally for holding down the Kashmir valley. No one cares to put it bluntly.

 

[Rig Vedic]

Why don't you give away the answer instead of judging?

Sorry for appearing judgmental

Gangotri is in the beautiful and sacred state of Uttarakhand. The Indus originates near the Manasarovar Lake in Tibet.

 

[Veeru]

Few ideas:

1. Protest in gilgit and baltistan for illegal merger.

2. So called Azad kashmir people should also appeal and campaign with international community.

 

[prototype]

History has shown that no military power on earth has been able to hold a significant territory against the will of the local population for an indefinite period of time. I would suggest you re-evaluate, "the valley is a small enough area to be able to be suppressed with military presence".

Also, please understand that there is a very big price you pay, locally, domestically, internationally, in terms of perception, moral position etc. when you "suppress" millions with "military presence". You don't want this for India, and no patriotic Indian would, frankly. I think it is better to talk about solutions rather than "suppression" of a civilian population with "military presence".

J@K is not all about the Kashmir valley,it also comprises ladakh and Jammu,and just some resentment in Kashmir valley does not means the entire state wants independence or freedom from India,people of both jammu and ladakh had already expressesed their happiness of alignment with India,and that will remain the same

Frankly Kashmir is not going anywhere,if some people in the valley resent against us,be it,they can leave,but we cannot leave a state were still their r million's of Indian supporter's.

 

[TechLahore]

Actually the world is full of spots where area is held down forcibly...China holds down Tibet,Russia holds down the entire Caucasus, Spain holds down Basque,Turkey holds down the Kurdish lands etc etc. If you look at the map Kashmir valley is relatively a very small area with a tiny percentage of India's population.

Not to widen the discussion here to so many theaters, but lets take a couple of examples:

Russia has had a whale of a time holding down anything, and things are fragmenting, if you haven't noticed. They've already lost control of swathes of territory. The 'stans, Chechnya, Dagestan, issues with Georgia... where have you been???

I think you have a very short sighted view of history... the USSR tried to hold down people against their will and they did succeed for 70 or 80 years, but then look what happened. And the USSR was far stronger than India militarily.

The Europeans tried to hold down territories across the world, and not only have they lost all of them, the people they tried to suppress are now taking over their would-be colonial occupier! Who would have thought that France would be 10+% muslim in 2010 and would be a society in complete flux, with muslim minorities now the fastest growing demographic. The percentages in some other European countries are even higher.

You mention Spain, yet you forget that even after holding Spain itself for hundreds of years, the Ottomans ultimately had to contend with Spain reverting to what it always was... a christian state.

The Kashmir conflict has been going on for 63 years, which in a way is a long time. But viewed in a different way - from the lens of history - this is a very short period. As long as an armed rebellion continues in Kashmir anything can happen, at any time. The length of the conflict has demonstrated that the rebellion against India has been transmitted through generations... and that is serious. Serious enough for the GoI to want to seek a compromise with Pakistan.

India keeps returning to the negotiating table over and over. Why do you think this is? Countries do things in their interest, and if it wasn'tin India's interest to resolve Kashmir, they wouldn't be participating in the backdoor diplomacy which is going on as we speak.

I really do not see what India pays internationally for holding down the Kashmir valley. No one cares to put it bluntly.

If your government agreed with you, they would not have worked out a compromise with Pakistan that changes the status quo. Please go back and read my posts. I explained my point of view on this cavalier "it's all ok - there's no problem in Kashmir" attitude earlier. You can continue to hold it, of course, but I continue to think nothing of it.