I don't like the Odds of Plebiscite in Kashmir being in Pak favour. (Opinion).

[Shamain]

@Shamain Before AJK liberation there were many Hindu families in our region included poonch. But they were migrated to other areas safely, only few cases of their murders happened on behalf of spy cases and their allegiance with Maharaja Hari Singh.

I know that already bahi. Itna tau mujhay bhi pata hai. And they werent pandits as indians claim.

No one had touched them with bad intention or expelled them,they all had willingly moved out.

Under iok and ajk muslims hindus have always remained safe.

 

[Burhan Wani]

I know that already bahi. Itna tau mujhay bhi pata hai. And they werent pandits as indians claim.

No one had touched them with bad intention or expelled them,they all had willingly moved out.

Under iok and ajk muslims hindus have always remained safe.

Fark to kuch bhi nae ho ga hindu ho ya pundit. Aik hi cheez hai par hindu shudur ho skta hai, pundit to Mahan hote heina Brahamin jo tehre.

 

[Shamain]

@Shamain Before AJK liberation there were many Hindu families in our region included poonch. But they were migrated to other areas safely, only few cases of their murders happened on behalf of spy cases and their allegiance with Maharaja Hari Singh.

I know that already bahi. Itna tau mujhay bhi pata hai. And they werent pandits as indians claim.

No one had touched them with bad intention or expelled them,they all had willingly moved out.

Under iok and ajk muslims hindus have always remained safe.

@fakhre mirpur i hope u are aware of this bit of history

Oh and i wud tag @syedali73 too, sir bohat aram say without any massacre izzat say hindu gaey thay ajk say apni marzi say after kashmir war to migrate to iok. No one had killed,rioted then or forecfully taken out.had they stayed again wudnt have been an issue.

 

[Azad-Kashmiri]

@Azad-Kashmiri, If a plebiscite in Azad Kashmir happens, what do you think would be the likely outcome ?

Bhai jaan I don't come on regularly so forgive me for my late reply. We will NEVER let our Army leave us in the hands of darinde-washi-hayawan. I'm under the impression from the Hindus that our Army has to leave it's land which is stupid. We would NEVER accept any foreign Army to come. We are MUSLIMS and only OUR Army can is allowed in our/its land to protect our women, honour, property, etc.

Now, this brings us to another issue, we don't believe in democracy and who said that is the only way we can choose?

Even if those who want to vote, Indians know very well we would choose to be with MUSLIM-Pakistan.

If Indians and others who may think A.K would break away from Pakistan or they can cause descent they are truly mistaken. We are with Pakistan because Allah commands us!!!!

And hold firmly to the rope of Allah all together and do not become divided. And remember the favor of Allah upon you - when you were enemies and He brought your hearts together and you became, by His favor, brothers. And you were on the edge of a pit of the Fire, and He saved you from it. Thus does Allah make clear to you His verses that you may be guided. Surah Al-Imran:103

On a final point, never has there ever been any descent in A.K against the motherland and that says it all.

 

[Jackdaws]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

I too have spoken to Kashmiris. The "azaadi" movement in '89-'90 attracted docs, engineers - the whole spectrum of society. Pandits were hounded out. Then India sent in the troops and the movement was crushed with all sorts of means - of course human rights were violated - the most by the "reformed" militants who were made cops. This resulted in a lot of the youth going to places like Bangalore and Mumbai to study. It kind of changed their view. In the age of 24x7 private news channels and social media , it is not easy for the forces to get away with violations like it was in '89. Kashmiris have also seen that Pak has become a powder keg. So this post is spot on.

At the outset Plebiscite is not going to happen.

Assuming it does, Independence was never an option.

None of the 525 Princely states were given this option.

Junagadh was. There was a plebiscite there.

 

[halupridol]

Khayali pulao,,,plebiscite mehh.

 

[unbiasedopinion]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

This is exactly what India has been saying. Pakistani are being brainwashed with some kind faiyrtale all along. That fairy tale being that whole of J&K like to be part of pakistan. There is nothing called that love towards joining Pakistan among Kashmiris. That is why India as a sane adviser keep on pushing to accept the status quo and leave the past behind and remain happy with what ever we all have.

Even if some say it is religious battle, then it is also not true. Two nation theory has been long defeated at multiple occasions. It is merely a political game and ego game as well ( since pakistan was cut half by India, Pakistanis Army wants to take revenge and thus want to keep the issue of Kashmir alive). Relgion is merely a tool used to fan the sentiments of people.

 

[third eye]

Junagadh was. There was a plebiscite there.

Independence was not an option

 

[SQ8]

I agree with the OP' assertion, the Kashmiri muslims or rather the valley of Kashmir is concerned with its economic outcome more than who goes where. Currently, they have their gripe at being treated unfairly by India and see some further autonomy as the actual goal vis a vis economics(which is always what it is about).

As for Pakistan "occupied" or Indian "occupied".. its already too well entrenched by troops to move any inches left or right as such. The issue for Pakistan has, and will always be the water supply because that is life. If today India is able to sign a massive guarantee that it says "Pakistan will receive more than its fair share of water".. the LOC will be the IB, AJK becomes a province and the whole Kashmiri movement settled...with Hafiz Saeed being shuttled off to Burkina Faso or someplace to fend for himself.

What will remain is Siachen, but that will resolve itself as long as the water issue is resolved.

 

[third eye]

As for Pakistan "occupied" or Indian "occupied".. its already too well entrenched by troops to move any inches left or right as such. The issue for Pakistan has, and will always be the water supply because that is life. If today India is able to sign a massive guarantee that it says "Pakistan will receive more than its fair share of water".. the LOC will be the IB, AJK becomes a province and the whole Kashmiri movement settled...with Hafiz Saeed being shuttled off to Burkina Faso or someplace to fend for himself.

What will remain is Siachen, but that will resolve itself as long as the water issue is resolved.

Thank you.

This is among the first sane posts I have read on the subject. Not that you need any but if I had it in my powers I would have given you a +ve rating for this.

I have maintained that India must ensure Pak gets its fair share of water as water is the only reason why Pak seeks Kashmir.

This to my mind is not such a insurmountable problem & is doable.

We need to work towards it.

 

[zip]

After few decades of independence India looks strong in Jammu and ladhak ..Kashmir valley is still decided on their opinion and if you include(?) independence as a option I think they may like it ..I don't know about Pakistani side of Kashmir so won't comment on that part ..After these many years there are some bottle neck problems to conduct plebiscite and interestingly all problems are due to Pakistan policies
1..aksai chin
2..changed demography of gilgit baltistan
3..changed demography of valley due to pundiths evacuation
4..Shimla agreement
I thought its people of Kashmir valley playing both side of the fence but it looks like Pakistan never wanted a solution of the problem as it made its impossible to conduct a plebiscite

 

[SQ8]

Thank you.

This is among the first sane posts I have read on the subject. Not that you need any but if I had it in my powers I would have given you a +ve rating for this.

I have maintained that India must ensure Pak gets its fair share of water as water is the only reason why Pak seeks Kashmir.

This to my mind is not such a insurmountable problem & is doable.

We need to work towards it.

Funny, Ive been saying this for a long time. Its always been about the water; the Pakistani establishment is not as insane as is thought in India. They know what they are fighting for and it is worth all the mess since it is the keystone of life.

 

[Roybot]

I agree with the OP' assertion, the Kashmiri muslims or rather the valley of Kashmir is concerned with its economic outcome more than who goes where. Currently, they have their gripe at being treated unfairly by India and see some further autonomy as the actual goal vis a vis economics(which is always what it is about).

As for Pakistan "occupied" or Indian "occupied".. its already too well entrenched by troops to move any inches left or right as such. The issue for Pakistan has, and will always be the water supply because that is life. If today India is able to sign a massive guarantee that it says "Pakistan will receive more than its fair share of water".. the LOC will be the IB, AJK becomes a province and the whole Kashmiri movement settled...with Hafiz Saeed being shuttled off to Burkina Faso or someplace to fend for himself.

What will remain is Siachen, but that will resolve itself as long as the water issue is resolved.

Don't you guys already have that in the for of IWT?

 

[tested]

Where did you get that Shia will not favour Pakistan? Pakistan has the largest population of Shias outside Iran. And I have many shia friends and they are as happy with Pakistan as any sunni

Because the Shia's form the bedrock of the Indian Army's intelligence network in Kashmir.

One of the largest reasons why IA is successful in killing infiltrating terrorists is because the Shia's don't want them here.

You can place your last dollar on the bet that 99.99% of Kashmiri Shia's don't want to join Pakistan or go independent. They all want to remain in India.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Just trying to be realistic here, talking to some IOKmiris on facebook and different forums and doing little bit of research looking at Polls and talking to people who have the insight knowledge about the situation and geography . (Although I know thats not enough but certainly IOKmiris know better about the situation than people of PDF).



I honestly don't think the Odds favour Pakistan much, I know a lot of people are under a different impression here in PDF and in Pakistan, that a lot of people think that Kashmiris want Kashmir to merge with Pakistan (Which is a totally false assumption IMO and a lot of polls suggest otherwise), In case of a plebiscite the battle would strictly be between Joining with India vs. Making Kashmir Independent ,most of those waiving Pakistani flags would most likely vote for Independent Kashmir too, Merely 10% would (probably) vote in favour of Joining Pakistan and we'd be left redfaced in front of the World .



How can we be so sure that a plebicite in Kashmir would favour Pakistan?? In Jammu about 66% of the population is Hindu majority, so its obvious the vote of the about 30% Muslims in that area would go waste, about 65% of Jammu's Muslims are Shias who don't seem to like Pakistan either. The Ladakh region is also Buddhish, Hindu majority thus it'd cede to India too.



In the Kashmir region (the Valley) there is Muslim majority about 65-70% are Sunni Muslims, 15% Hindu & Sikhs, rest Shias , the Shias + Hindu & Sikhs would vote for India, while in the remaining 65% of Sunni Muslims , around 5% are Pro India, remaining is divided in opinion of Pro Pakistan & Pro Independence, and opinion has vastly shifted from being Pro Pakistan to Pro Independence in recent years, right now the chances are that if a plebicite happens the Valley would choose Independence, while Jammu and Ladakh regions would choose India, some Population is the region is undecided and just wanna get on with their lives, so that'd be Swing votes .


So what odds are we counting upon?? There is a close possibility that people in Azad Kashmir could choose Independent Azad Kashmir instead of choosing to be a part of Pakistan..


Idk why I think we have more to lose than gain in this whole scenario and we're being very silly and delusional about it and living in some Disney land with no clue whatsoever of the ground situation, the most we'd get from all this is a Independent Kashmir Valley, idk how it'd work/survive on its own and how it'd would benefit us?





So, thoughts ?? Im just being skeptical not judgmental , I have serious doubts over our Odds in case of Plebicite in Kashmir and most people seem to be Unaware of this ..

The Sunnis in the valley have all the muscle power. Even though they are about 45 percent, they wield an unfairly high influence.