Hypothetical Afghan-Pakistan War & Repercussions

[.]

I don't Intend to open this discussion for War mongering but With Intention to have viable discussion.Will it ever happen? If so How will the world react .
Below I have Some reasons which can support my Thread that Pakistan can In-fact go to war with Afghanistan under some conditions.
-A(Afghans Continue to have border skirmishes killing and Injuring Pakistani Soldiers and civilians

• • 13 June 2016 - A Pakistan Army Major Ali Jawad Changezi was injured by Afghan firing along Torkham border. Jawad later died in CMH Peshawar on 14 June. Two Pakistani border guards and nine civilians were also injured in Afghan firing. Afghans started "unprovoked firing" at roughly 9pm on Sunday to disrupt the construction of a gate 37 meters inside the Pakistani side of the border.The gate is designed to curb illegal cross-border movement and check the movement of terrorists, and is part of the greater under-construction Pakistan–Afghanistan barrier.The Torkham border crossing was forced to close due to skirmishes.Afghan chief executive Abdullah Abdullah claimed that one of their soldiers was killed and six were wounded. Pakistan reacted by capturing three Afghan border outposts.
  • 14 June 2016 - An Afghan soldier and two civilians were killed allegedly in Pakistani firing and 12 soldiers were also injured.
  • 15 June 2016 - An Afghan soldier, Khushal Wakilzada was killed and five others were injured in Pakistani firing, whereas the Torkham crossing remained closed. Pakistan reportedly restarted the construction of the border gate. Two Pakistani soldiers were also injured in Afghan firing.

-B(Blame game of terrorist backing in the region and a terrorist attack from which Pakistanis blame fully on war torn Afghanistan,Believe it or not APS attackers and various other attackers have planned their attacks and crossed into Pakistan from Afghanistan.

Pakistan responsible for failure of peace initiatives of Afghanistan: Ashraf Ghani

WARSAW: President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani has held Pakistan responsible for failure of the peace initiatives taken by Afghanistan saying Pakistan differentiates between good and bad terrorists "in practice".


Addressing Nato summit on Saturday, Ashraf Ghani said,"Our regional initiatives with neighbours are beginning to yield significant cooperative dividends. However, the exception is with Pakistan."


He went on saying that despite clear commitments to the quadrilateral peace process, Pakistan's dangerous distinction between good and bad terrorists was being maintained in practice.


Ashraf Ghani said that the key problem among our neighbouring states was an absence of agreed rules of the game, thus we seek regional and global support in creating those rules, which will bind us to collective security and harmony.


The world leaders should understand that Afghanistan is facing a multi-dimensional conflict and is fighting all sorts of groups "ranging from Al-Qaeda and Daesh to terrorist groups with Central Asian, Chinese, and Russian origins, to Pakistani groups classified as terrorists by Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban groups," the Afghan President maintained.


Citing the 2015 Makkah declaration against terrorism as an example, Ashraf Ghani claimed that Afghanistan's dialogue within the Arab-Muslim community was also productive.


He was of the view that the recent terrorist attack near the Mosque of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) in Madina has outraged the Muslim community and "should result in a consensus against the minority which is attempting to hijack our civilization".


Ghani thanked all the Nato countries for "fighting shoulder to shoulder" with Afghanistan's own forces and claimed that the organization has maintained its relevance and effectiveness in the paradigm shift presented by post-9/11 Afghanistan.


"The organization’s fulfillment of both its combat and support missions in Afghanistan is a corroboration of NATO’s continued global relevance, adaptability and effectiveness. Its transformative legacy, however, is building our 352,000 strong security and defense forces," said Ghani.


He also thanked US President Barack Obama for expanding the authorities of the Resolute Support Mission and his latest decision to maintain American troops throughout his term.

http://nation.com.pk/international/...peace-initiatives-of-afghanistan-ashraf-ghani
-C(Pakistan Invades under a dictatorial Leader (Civil or military) short tempered.
-D(Pakistan wants to Expand its borders and takes a Afghan state for resources.
-E(Continuous Influence of India on Afghanistan and which draws concerns to Pakistan's National security prompts Pakistan to have Air raids inside Afghanistan.(A disturbed and dysfunctional Pakistan is in the Interests of India because honestly Economic downfall of Pakistan is also in the Interests and serves in the Interest of India)

Hopefully this never happens we saw the whole world laughing on Muslims when Iran Iraq Kuwait war happened.

http://nation.com.pk/international/...peace-initiatives-of-afghanistan-ashraf-ghani

 

[M.SAAD]

I think the main factor would be NATO.


Afghan army vs. Pakistan and Afghan army backed by NATO vs. Pakistan would result in 2 different scenarios and possibly results ..

 

[.]

I think the main factor would be NATO.


Afghan army vs. Pakistan and Afghan army backed by NATO vs. Pakistan would result in 2 different scenarios and possibly results ..

Oh I completely forgot NATO Damn man that's right and BTW it should be NATO+Afghanies+India= Against PA .
Makes sense now but..NATO ain't gonna stay forever

 

[That Guy]

Oh I completely forgot NATO Damn man that's right and BTW it should be NATO+Afghanies+India= Against PA .
Makes sense now but..NATO ain't gonna stay forever

NATO, nor the US wouldn't go to war against Pakistan. In fact, the security pact that Ghani agreed to actually address that US/NATO forces would not defend Afghanistan's territory, nor fight on its behalf, if a foreign national force attacked or invaded Afghanistan. This was the main reason why Karzai didn't want to sign the pact, as he felt that foreign forces should have helped Afghanistan, if Afghanistan ever went to war with Pakistan.

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On topic, Afghanistan will no longer exist in its current borders, if it goes to war with Pakistan. Likely, Pakistan will go in, force Afghanistan to surrender, and get out. If Afghanistan's government, or military doesn't survive the war, Afghanistan will likely break into multiple states.

 

[.]

NATO, nor the US wouldn't go to war against Pakistan. In fact, the security pact that Ghani agreed to actually address that US/NATO forces would not defend Afghanistan's territory, nor fight on its behalf, if a foreign national force attacked or invaded Afghanistan. This was the main reason why Karzai didn't want to sign the pact, as he felt that foreign forces should have helped Afghanistan, if Afghanistan ever went to war with Pakistan.

----

On topic, Afghanistan will no longer exist in its current borders, if it goes to war with Pakistan. Likely, Pakistan will go in, force Afghanistan to surrender, and get out. If Afghanistan's government, or military doesn't survive the war, Afghanistan will likely break into multiple states.

Dear sir Excellent analysis!!!Multiple states I have always maintained that.. way to establishing Peace in Afghanistan is to Divide it into various states..! that way you have Some sort of stability or complete chaos ,Stability in a sense you have the taliban imposing shariah in one part (At least Restricted to one part hopefully) ,War lords getting the rest of the chunk,Might Bring peace to afghanistan @A-Team

 

[Indika]

Dear sir Excellent analysis!!!Multiple states I have always maintained that.. way to establishing Peace in Afghanistan is to Divide it into various states..! that way you have Some sort of stability or complete chaos ,Stability in a sense you have the taliban imposing shariah in one part (At least Restricted to one part hopefully) ,War lords getting the rest of the chunk,Might Bring peace to afghanistan @A-Team

Be careful what you wish for. It will end up like syria-iraq scenario with many groups battling it up. It will destabilize the whole region.

 

[.]

Be careful what you wish for. It will end up like syria-iraq scenario with many groups battling it up. It will destabilize the whole region.

Broo I don't wish anything ,But I wish to have peace in Afghanistan,We have 2/3rds of our western front bordering Afghanistan ,Its a destabilized region no matter how it effects Pakistan through terrorism smuggling and preventing economic growth .If you have any other Solution to Afghanistan please I love to hear it.
Thank you

 

[jha]

There will never be a war between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Period. Border tension will have to be managed.

 

[Path-Finder]

It will be a rifle being fired on a afghani shoulder and nothing more. most importantly the principality of Kabul has its strings being pulled from multiple direction, furthermore many of these elite afghans are trying to settle in Pakistan yet in Kabul they bad mouth us.

 

[Centurion2016]

Afghanistan is firmly in indian sphere of influence.

They have out manoeuvred the Pakistanis

 

[hussain0216]

Afghanistan is firmly in indian sphere of influence.

They have out manoeuvred the Pakistanis

You have no influence in Afghanistan, it has been decimated, the afghan government themselves are limited to Kabul, this is both your and afghans problem.

The afghans want us to help but still screw us, they are desperate for us to help but in return we want india neutered hence the indianesq randi rona

 

[shah1398]

President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani has held Pakistan responsible for failure of the peace initiatives taken by Afghanistan saying Pakistan differentiates between good and bad terrorists "in practice"

Two things at work.

1: He is reading from script handed over to him by his masters.

2: The same script enables him to blame others for his own incompetence and failures. Who doesnt want that in any case?

 

[Jhon Smith]

In Future Pak would have war with Afghan army at full scale.

As Afghans considered Pak as there arch enemy.
Every solider and General , Major and colonel consider Pak as real and ultimate Enemy as every one in Pak army consider the India as enemy.

If U read Afghan views on Pak u will be shocked. They hate Pak by heart.

As There is war going in Pak between Talbian and Afghan army and the Afghan army consider Talbain as B team of Pak army.

Afghanistan would attack the Pak in case Indiao Pak war.

NATO gives $1bn to boost US security effort in Afghanistan
One billion US dollars of support for the American effort in Afghanistan has been agreed by NATO, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. The commitment…
RT.COM

Afghanistan reviewing Islamabad’s 8-Article Action Plan
http://www.en.rahapress.af/afghanistan-reviewing-islamabads-8-article-action-plan/

Pakistan has sent an 8-article action plan to President Ashraf Ghani through a high-level Afghan delegation that visited Islamabad on Thursday to convey the message of the Afghan president regarding action against the Taliban who are enjoying safe havens in the neighboring country, said an official.

In the aftermath of a wave of deadly terrorist attacks in Kabul that led to the killing of dozens of Afghans, Kabul sent a delegation, comprising of the acting defense minister Masoom Stanikzai, Minister of Foreign Affairs Salahuddin Rabbani and the chief of National Directorate of Security Rahmatullah Nabil, to Islamabad.

An official told Azadi Radio on condition of anonymity that the Afghan government is looking into the action plan.

Though contents of the action plan are not clear so far, a number of lawmakers assume that Pakistan may have stuck to its old demands—unconditional access to Central Asia via Afghanistan, recognition of the Durand Line as international border, control over Afghanistan’s foreign policy and natural resources.

 

[Path-Finder]

In Future Pak would have war with Afghan army at full scale.

As Afghans considered Pak as there arch enemy.
Every solider and General , Major and colonel consider Pak as real and ultimate Enemy as every one in Pak army consider the India as enemy.

If U read Afghan views on Pak u will be shocked. They hate Pak by heart.

As There is war going in Pak between Talbian and Afghan army and the Afghan army consider Talbain as B team of Pak army.

Afghanistan would attack the Pak in case Indiao Pak war.

NATO gives $1bn to boost US security effort in Afghanistan
One billion US dollars of support for the American effort in Afghanistan has been agreed by NATO, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said. The commitment…
RT.COM

Afghanistan reviewing Islamabad’s 8-Article Action Plan
http://www.en.rahapress.af/afghanistan-reviewing-islamabads-8-article-action-plan/

Pakistan has sent an 8-article action plan to President Ashraf Ghani through a high-level Afghan delegation that visited Islamabad on Thursday to convey the message of the Afghan president regarding action against the Taliban who are enjoying safe havens in the neighboring country, said an official.

In the aftermath of a wave of deadly terrorist attacks in Kabul that led to the killing of dozens of Afghans, Kabul sent a delegation, comprising of the acting defense minister Masoom Stanikzai, Minister of Foreign Affairs Salahuddin Rabbani and the chief of National Directorate of Security Rahmatullah Nabil, to Islamabad.

An official told Azadi Radio on condition of anonymity that the Afghan government is looking into the action plan.

Though contents of the action plan are not clear so far, a number of lawmakers assume that Pakistan may have stuck to its old demands—unconditional access to Central Asia via Afghanistan, recognition of the Durand Line as international border, control over Afghanistan’s foreign policy and natural resources.

The Late Gen Hamid Gul was right Afghanistan Bahana and Pakistan Nishana! We shall see what happens. What is that movie you posted?

 

[Signalian]

I would never wish a Pakistan -Afghan war. I would prefer dialogue and negotiations between both though.

Since its only a "hypothetical" scenario. In a hypothetical war, Considering ISAF will not join ANA and Pakistan will not attack ISAF, Pakistan's main aim should be to take Kabul and capture/kill Afghan top brass swiftly to end the war.

Just before the war, Pakistan finds local Afghani warlords who are against ANA and pays them handsomely to keep ANA engaged in all sectors outside Kabul till PA forces reach Kabul.

Militarily :

Pakistan Air Force:
1. Deploy PAF 16th Squadron to attack defensive positions of ANA 201st Corps around Kabul.

2. Deploy PAF 26th Squadron to attack reinforcements and supply columns coming towards Kabul.

3. Deploy PAF 19th Squadron on AD-Alert and to provide air cover to 16 and 26 squadrons to counter IAF Mig-29 from Tajikistan.

4. Deploy UAV squadron to monitor movements of Afghan Top brass leaving Kabul. Target top brass with UCAV Squadron when they leave Kabul.


Pakistan Army

1. SSG platoon along with an infantry company is heli-dropped near Jalal abad. Their task is to capture Jalalabad or engage ANA forces there till link up with ground troops.

2. Deploy AH-1 Squadron to clear the route on highway from Torkham to Jalalabad.

3. The Armoured Brigade from Nowshera spearheads the ground forces supported by an Infantry Brigade from 7th Infantry Division towards Jalalabad. Elements of AH-1 squadron provide Air-cover to advancing Pakistani ground troops on this highway.

This ground force is then followed up by remaining elements of 7th Infantry Division moving towards Jalalabd..

4. Once Jalalabad is captured. 7th Divison establishes Field HQ in Jalalabad and the airfield can now be used. Meanwhile forward elements of 9th Infantry Division start moving from Torkham to Jalalabad.

5. Airlift SSG to be paradropped around Kabul, near Kabul International Airport. Airlift 7th Division's 2 X infantry battalion for heli drop near Kabul, area secured by SSG. Deployed SSG and infantry forces at landing zone are provided air cover by AH-1 detachment and PAF 16th Squadron.

This force is required to secure Kabul Airport and then makes its way towards government buildings of Kabul city.

6. Two Infantry brigades of 7th Infantry division advance towards Kabul under air cover of AH-1 squadron on Kabul-Jalalabad highway.

7. Once Kabul Airport is secured, 1 X brigade of 9th Infantry Division is Air lifted from Peshawar and lands at Kabul Airport to reinforce SSG and battalions of 7th Infantry Division in kabul before the ground force of 2 Brigades of 7th Infantry Division arrives.

8. Once Kabul is taken, the war can come to an end.