Hunza Lake in Attabad - potential disaster in the making

[Marxist]

Water submerges Pakistani tourist town, hurts China trade

GULMIT, Pakistan — Panicked people took everything they could carry, even doors and windows, as a lake threatened to flood dozens of villages in northern Pakistan, officials and witnesses said Monday.

The lake emerged on January 4 as a result of a massive landslide that killed 20, left about 25,000 people stranded and blocked Hunza river in a remote Himalayan region about 750 kilometres (450 miles) north of Islamabad.

Water from the lake has submerged parts of Gulmit, a tourist resort on the main Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan with China, resident Rehan Shah said.

The highway has already been closed, badly affecting trade between the two countries.

"We have suffered a loss of more than 500 billion rupees (about 59.3 million dollars) since January," president of the Gilgit chamber of commerce, Javed Hussain, told AFP in Karimabad, the main town in the picturesque Hunza valley.

Trade convoys arriving in the border town of Sust are sent to Hussaini town from where they are loaded onto boats to cross the lake, Hussain said.

Then private loaders, carrying goods on their back put the cargo on jeeps for onward shipment to Gilgit, he said.

Pakistani soldiers were seen helping residents to board the boats and leave their villages, an AFP reporter in the areas said.

Around 36 villages may be submerged if the banks of the lake burst as the water level continues to rise, Iqbal Jan, a local government official said.

"We have set up nine relief camps in Gilgit and 11 in Hunza and advised people to move now," Jan said but admitted that most people preferred to go to friends or relatives.

Army engineers have already created a spillway and water was expected to start draining into it later this week.

Officials in jeeps fitted with an address system Monday called on people to leave their homes. Similar announcements have also been made from mosques in the area, an AFP reporter in Gulmit town said.

Reluctant people were seen hurriedly smashing wooden doors and windows of their shops and homes, an expensive item that can be used to help in a future rebuild.

Local official Asadullah Lodhi said around 18,000 people may be affected in case the lake bursts its banks.

Officials say 1,700 people have already fled their homes after floods swept through Ayeenabad and Shishkat villages in the district of Hunza, wiping out dozens of houses.

AFP: Water submerges Pakistani tourist town, hurts China trade

 

[ajpirzada]

Saturday, May 22, 2010
Muhammad Saleh Zaafir

HUNZA: Hunza Lake has caused havoc in the area and fears have been expressed that it could bring disaster if mountainous walls of the lack are burst.

Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani on Friday visited beyond upper Attaabad where landsliding was in progress and huge boulders were rolling down from top of the mountain. The army commander had to wind up the briefing hurriedly to avoid any damage to the premier and guests arrived at the rendezvous.

Prime Minister Gilani drove his jeep on the road that was created by military engineers with debris of the broken mountains to reach the mouth of the spillway drawn up by the army engineers in less than a fortnight.

The World Bank experts, who have visited the area, termed efforts of Pakistan engineers heroic. They said no other option could be better what had been adopted by Pakistani engineers who were working in extremely dangerous environment with fair amount of dedication. The area witnessed a similar happening way back in 1858, 152 years ago when the mountains were torn apart and a lack came into being. The engineers told Prime Minister Gilani on the spot that seismic activity was taking place right over the fault line. The boulders were falling with bang as explosions continued to take place on the mountain and big smoke of dust engulfed the east of the Attaabad Mountain.

Prime Minister Gilani after the visit of Hunza, directed the Cabinet Division to provide additional relief items including tents, generators and food items costing Rs55.125 million to the affected and displaced people of Hunza.

These relief items will be in addition to the goods worth Rs51.523 million already provided to affected and displaced people of Hunza. Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani had also visited the area and had held detailed discussions with the engineers about the action to deal with the situation.

Prime Minister Gilani acclaimed the work of troops and other agencies to save the area from yet another calamity. Prime Minister Gilani has decided to invite all parliamentary groups in the Parliament including the opposition leader to provide opportunity to witness the moments when water will be starting flow through the spillway. Prime Minister Yusuf Gilani later visited the internally displaced persons (IDPs) in one of their camps that has been set up by the Central Asia Institute. The IDPs chanted slogans in favour of Prime Minister Gilani, the late Bhuttos and other leaders of the party.

Gilani visits Hunza Lake ignoring landsliding

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Affectees end protest near Lake - Geo.TV
Updated at: 1801 PST, Saturday, May 22, 2010
HUNZA: The landslide-spawned Lake in Ata Abad area of Hunza is persistently rising, leaving the gap between the Lake and the spillway very little, Geo News reported Saturday.

Meantime, protest by the afectees against no announcement of relief package by the government has ended after Deputy Commissioner Hunza Zafar Waqar Taj assured them of release of funds within seven days.

The government was taking all necessary measures to help the victims.

The affected people here have turned all in protest against no announcement by the Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani for immediate relief package and staged a sit-in near the Lake, exposing their lives to an imminent danger of massive disaster.

The government's tall and inflated claims regarding the provision of electricity, water and other amenities to the camps erected for the affectees from the low-lying areas situated between Hunza Nagar and Gilgit, turned out to be nothing.

The people complained about the non-availability of the facilities at the camps.

Over 250 people mainly children and women from a camp here arrived near the lake and staged a sit-in against the government.

The protesters said the PM Gilani did not announce any relief package for them in his visit here.

According to demonstrators, it is better for them to die in the Lake as it bursts than languish and expire at the camp, adding they would not budge from their current spot until and unless their demands were met.

The protesters raised slogans against the government and Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

According to Geo News, if the protesters persisted where they were at that time, it could lead to catastrophic situation, as the gap between the spillway and the Lake whittled down to only eight feet.

Also, the continuous landsliding could harm them.

The protesters, with tears in their eyes, told that the government did nothing for their relief, as their relatives including their brothers and fathers are present on the other bank of the Lake in extreme precarious condition.

Affectees end protest near Lake - GEO.tv

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

The majority of people effected are Ismaili. So who has let them down GOP or Aga Khan ?

 

[Hyde]

As far as i know Prime Minister Gilani was supposed to visit this area 2 days ago - Pakistan Army was evacuating peoples from helicopters and they stopped this service for the Prime Minister - that was on Geo

I am sure he too have visited this effected lake and yes it is a matter of concern, we need to do something now to protect ourselves from this calamity rather than awaiting for it to come first and then decide what to do

 

[Comet]

What if, God Forbid, the lake breaks? What effect will it have on the areas downwards specially Terbella?

 

[usmanjilani]

What if, God Forbid, the lake breaks? What effect will it have on the areas downwards specially Terbella?

All Engineers who have visited the lake have already said that the Lake is going to break and their is only a small chance that water flows slowly through the lake.


Tarbela Dam's life will be decreased as the flood will bring sand etc along with it.

 

[Comet]

All Engineers who have visited the lake have already said that the Lake is going to break and their is only a small chance that water flows slowly through the lake.


Tarbela Dam's life will be decreased as the flood will bring sand etc along with it.

But surely, there is no direct threat to the walls of Terbella? I mean the water pressure will not be that much, right?

 

[alibaz]

The lake is bound to break but the efforts, desire,wish and pray is that it breaks slowly. It is expected that spill way would work and the walls of dam created by the slide would take some time to break . As a result the dam will take a little longer to release stored water. Every extended hour will reduce losses. The worry is that in any case, the dam bursts or cuts, releases water immediately or relatively slow will bring huge amount of silt in terbela dam and will result into its capacity reduction. Lets pray that Allah be with us and create ease during this calamity.

Now we need to think to increase our water storage capacity at different sites so that water flow can be controlled easily in this type of situation. May be we avoid losses to lives during this calamity but the property of poor people of whole area between Hunza to Terbela will be at the mercy of uncontrolled water.

 

[ajtr]

The huge lake on the Hunza river as a result of a landslide is now available in High Res on Google Earth. The picture is dated March 19, 2010, when the lake is about 10.9Kms long. The town of Hullehgush along with about 15 Kms of Karakoram Highway is deep underwater.

Landslide:

The same area in 2006: There is a small area of low resolution in the middle of this pic.

The lake in March 2010: Notice that the Karakoram Highway is deep underwater.

The same area in 2006

 

[ajtr]

SUMMARY OF LOSSES / DAMAGES DUE TO LAND SILDE / MOVEMENT OF TERRAIN, VILLAGE ATTA ABAD/KOHISTAN - PERIOD COVERED UPTO 14 MAR 2010

---------- Post added at 05:51 AM ---------- Previous post was at 05:50 AM ----------

Upsurge in lake as glacier collapses​

Traders unload their goods at a temporary port along a lake caused by landslide in the Hunza district of northern Pakistan. Panicked people took everything they could carry, even doors and windows, as a lake threatened to flood dozens of villages in northern Pakistan, officials and witnesses said. –AFP Photo

HUNZA: Water flow in the lake formed after a landslide blocked the Hunza River early this year rose by a staggering 3,100 cusecs on Monday when an upstream glacier-lake burst, fuelling fears that more areas in the Gojal valley will be submerged.
Already there were reports that property and orchards in low-lying areas of Shishkat, Gulmit, Ghulkin and Hussaini had been submerged.

Seepage at six points in the debris of the landslide has increased to 150 cusecs. About 23 feet of the freeboard still remains to be overtopped by the lake.

A boat service to the landlocked Gojal tehsil was suspended on Monday due to the inclement weather.

Officials said that the helicopter service would be resumed once the weather improved. The region saw heavy rain on Monday.

The depth of the 18km lake has reached 350 feet and the daily inflow in the lake surged to 3,100 cusecs, up from 2,300 cusecs, due to the glacier-lake burst on Monday.

 

[ajtr]

Karakoram traders flee border post ​

By Syed Fazl-e-Haider

KARACHI, Pakistan - The damage to Pakistan's already fragile economy caused by a landslide blockage of the Karakoram Highway (KKH), the country's key landlink with China, is mounting, with the evacuation this week of Sost, the land port on the border between the two countries.

Continuing heavy rains in the mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan area and melt-waters from surrounding glaciers have brought fresh landslides and further raised the level of a vast lake - now 16 kilometers long - that has built up behind the initial blockage at Attaabad, about 750 kilometers north of Islamabad. The level of the lake at Attaabad has reached 97 meters, according to Dawn newspaper last week, citing the National Disaster Management

Authority, and experts fear it may start overspilling the landslide as early as this weekend.Traders in the region have estimated losses so far of around 5 billion rupees (US$59 million) due to the closure of the Karakoram Highway, whose construction has been central to the growth in cross-border trade, which only started in 1969.

The rising waters have already have submerged parts of Gulmit, a tourist resort that has become an import money earner for the Hunza valley area in Gilgit-Baltistan since it opened in the mid-1980s. The lake has washed away two bridges in Ghulkin and Hussain, on the Karakoram Highway, and cut off three villages, Dawn reported on Sunday.

Downriver, where the Hunza flows into the Indus, about 11,000 families in Battagram, Mansehra, Shangla and Kohistan may have to be evacuated, the report said, citing the Provincial Disaster Management Authority. "We are preparing for a caseload of 40,000 [people] who could be affected by flooding," Nadeem Ahmed, chairman of national disaster management authority, told a press conference in the capital.

Flooding would put at risk 13,500 people downstream and about 25,000 people upstream who were "less threatened", he said. Meanwhile, large rockfalls continue in the area, one as recently as May 12 (for video, see here ) raising fears that one could block slipways being built to allow runoff from the lake. [1]

Gilgit and Baltistan Affairs Minister Mian Manzoor Wattoo on Tuesday dismissed concern that in the event of the lake bursting it would send dangerous flood waters as far downstream as the Tarbela Dam, reiterating the view of Lt-Gen Shahid Niaz, Engineer General Pakistan Army, given last week. The 14-generator power station at the dam, 50km northwest of Islamabad, is an important energy source for a country already suffering regular blackouts due to power shortages.

A 22km section of the Karakoram Highway has reportedly been washed out since the initial blockage by a huge landslide, put at 2km long, in early January, halting overland trade with China. Damage to the highway has increased transportation costs of goods between the two countries and is driving up prices of essential goods in the Upper Hunza, or Gojal, valley. The valley borders with the Xinjiang-Uyghur region of People Republic of China and Afghanistan.



With rain continuing to pour across the Hunza valley and water in the Attaabad lake rising by as much as a meter a day, scores of villages downriver are threatened by a possible breach of its banks. Residents from more than 36 villages have already been evacuated to safer places.

The central government has sent 700 million rupees in aid to the Gilgit-Baltistan authorities to resolve problems being faced by the local population, The News reported, citing Wattoo. Even so, critics say the government has shown inadequate concern and urgency over the situation since the massive January landslide. The people of Ganash village, which will be the first to take the hit in the case of a breach of the lake, recently protested at not receiving relief from the government and an absence of safety measures for the village.

Shahid Siddiqui, Director of the Center for Humanities and Social Sciences at Lahore School of Economics, writing on his Internet blog, said that "the most painful part of the issue was the downplaying of the disaster by the federal and local authorities. They tried to create the impression that everything was either all right or under control. The reality, however, was just the opposite."
He said no help had been sought from China to meet the challenge, countering other reports that a Chinese engineering company had been called in to assist.

Annual trade between China and Pakistan has increased from less than $2 billion in 2002 to $6.9 billion, with a goal of $15 billion by 2014. China, which has surpassed the European Union as Pakistan's second-largest trading partner, exported goods worth $5.5 billion to Pakistan and imported $1.3 billion worth of products. The United States is Pakistan's biggest trading partner.

Both China and Pakistan are keen to increase overland trade between the two countries, and work to upgrade the Karakoram Highway, widening it to 30 meters from 10 meters and increasing its transport capacity threefold, was to be completed by 2012. The upgrade is particularly designed to allow better accommodation of heavily-laden vehicles and extreme weather conditions.

Sost dry port is the first formal port at the China-Pakistan border, facilitating customs clearance and other formalities for goods moving from the Chinese regions of Kasghar and Sinkyang to the commercial centers of Pakistan. The town is connected by the Karakoram Highway to Karimabad, Gilgit and Chilas on the south and the Chinese cities of Tashkurgan, Upal and Kashgar in the north.

The blockage of the Karakoram Highway, part of the Silk Route that links China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Turkey, will also affect tourism, which has grown quickly since China opened its doors to Western tourists traveling in groups via the Karakoram Highway to Pakistan.

Strategically located Gilgit-Baltistan is seen by both India and Pakistan as part of the larger Jammu and Kashmir issue, which has not yet been resolved. Last year, Islamabad approved a package of self-governance reforms for what was then known as the Northern Areas, aimed at giving it full internal autonomy but without the status of a province.

China is playing a central role in efforts to develop the Gilgit-Baltistan region, with Chinese companies and engineers involved in major hydropower projects in the region, including the Bunji and Basha dams and the Kohala and Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric projects.

 

[ajtr]

Hunza Landslide May 12, 2010

Hunza Disaster, Progress at Spillway

This shows just how close to the top of the dam the water level has now reached. The second and third show the impact of the rapidly rising water level:

 

[ajtr]

Daily updates on Situation of Hunza artificial lake.​

NDMA freeboard information for Attabad
In the absence of any other information on the state of play at Attabad, I have plotted up the daily updates on freeboard from NDMA. The reliability of these is somewhat unclear as there are often contradictions between the indicated water level rise and the daily difference between freeboard measurements. There are also sometimes errors - e.g. the data for 19th May suggests that freeboard increased rather than declined overnight, but I have corrected that. So the graph for the last 19 days or so looks like this (the last datapoint is for 19th May at 18:00 local time):

Over the last four days the water level has risen at an average of 1.1 m per day, which means that the remaining freeboard should be lost in 3 or 4 days from 19th May, even allowing for the apparent slight reduction in rate in the last couple of days. On this basis, overtopping might be expected tomorrow (22nd May) or on Saturday 23rd May, but happen earlier.

Of course all of this is dependent upon the NDMA values being correct, but for the last two weeks the Focus and NDMA freeboard figures have effectively been the same. This does also mean that some of the media reported values of lake rise due to the GLOF earlier in the week were wildly incorrect.

The final spillway at the Attabad landslide
The GLOF into the lake behind the Attabad landslide yesterday appears to have raised the water level by something over two metres, in addition to the increase of about a metre from the normal inflow (please see the data on my monitoring site). The upshot is that the freeboard is likely be 4 metres or less. Inflow has increased substantially as well to about 93 cubic metres per second. It has not been possible to measure seepage in the last 24 hours as the site is now too dangerous.

All work on the spillway has ceased and the machinery has been withdrawn. The final form of the spillway is shown in this Focus image:

It pains me to say this, but I simply cannot see how this will resist the peak flow in the Hunza River. However, it has at least served the purpose of reducing the total volume of water involved in any flood that should occur.

The boat service has also now ceased as it would clearly be too dangerous should a breach start.

Water flow past the blockage may start through one of three key processes:
1. Overtopping and water flow through the spillway. In Tangjiashan the initiation of erosion started some hours after initial flow; this may or may not be the case here. Erosion may start on the downstream face or at the crest of the spillway, or there may be slope failures on the downstream face. It is also possible that the sides of the channel may fail, creating a new blockage, stopping water flow for a while.
2. A seepage induced failure. This is less likely than 1., but remains a distinct possibility;
3. Overtopping initiated by a landslide into the lake.

None of these can be ruled out at this stage, but 1. is the most likely. If so, the size of the resultant flood will depend upon the rate of erosion, if any.

I hope above all hopes that erosion happens slowly. My thoughts are with the people of Hunza.


Even more seepage at Attabad
The rate of seepage at the Attabad landslide is now increasing at a rapid rate, and a new seepage point emerged in the last 24 hours. This graph shows the seepage rate since the start of monitoring:

The current rate of increase does pose the risk of a seepage-induced failure. This is not inevitable, but the risk is increasing with time. The authorities need to be prepared for the possibility that seepage could develop very rapidly indeed. The most recent Focus update provided an image of the two main seepage points:

The one below the spillway is the one that developed at the end of last week - yesterday this was discharging about 1 cubic metre per second. To the right is the main seepage point - yesterday this was producing 2.8 cubic metres per second. Note how much erosion these seepage points have generated in the channels they have cut. This does not bode well.



The likelihood of a flood from the Attabad landslide
The water level at Attabad is now within ten metres of the base of the spillway at the saddle, and continues to rise at about 90 to 100 cm per day. Thus, water flow through the spillway is now about ten days away, or possibly less.

So what will happen when water flow starts? Regular readers will know that I have been continually pressing the authorities to assume that a large flood will occur, even if this was an outside possibility. My recommendations were, and still are, to evacuate everyone downstream of the dam located within 60 metres of the river level. Past experience suggests that the flood could be large all the way to Tarbela - i.e. that standard attenuation models don't apply here.

Throughout this crisis I have maintained that a catastrophic flood was possible but not probable. This was very much based upon the plans for the spillway, which we were assured would be 30 metres deep, up to 40 m wide, and with a low longitudinal gradient. We were even assured that the base would be armoured to prevent erosion.

Attabad - the spillway
The Pamir Times has today published a photo of the final spillway at Attabad. All work has now apparently ceased as the overtopping approaches:

The reality is rather different. A couple of days ago the Pamir Times published this image of the spillway (the annotation is from them - I would like to formally thank them for highlighting the monitoring site I run):

Those building the spillway have admitted that it is just 5 metres wide and 14 metres deep. None of us should be under any illusions - this is unlikely to be large enough to cope with the flows that the river experiences in the summer floods. Furthermore, even though the flow from seepage that has developed below the spillway over the last few days is a fraction of the current inflow (seepage = 510 litres per second; inflow = 77,750 litres per second), the water flowing from the seepage point has been able to erode the dam materials. This does not bode well in terms of the landslide dam resisting erosion.

The increase in seepage rate remains a source of concern too, both in terms of the potential for an earlier water release and the likelihood of internal weakening of the dam structure.

All of this means that a flood is now likely, hopefully of just a moderate size, but possibly larger. Once again I urge, as I have throughout this crisis, that the authorities assume that the flood will be large and thus ensure that everyone within 50 metres of the river between Attabad and Tarbela is protected.

Finally, I just cannot understand why the authorities are not getting expert advice to help them to deal with this. Help is being offered - why are they not accepting it?

Developments at Attabad
I have today revamped the monitoring website of the Attabad landslide in Hunza, Pakistan to make the display of information more straightforward as we enter the end game of this situation. In the last day or so there have been three critical developments:

1. Seepage is increasing rapidly
Today's seepage figure is 2.53 cubic metres per second - that is a substantial increase on yesterday, as the graph below shows:

2. A new seepage point has developed
Part of the reason for the increase in seepage is the development of a new seepage point below the spillway. This is not unexpected, though the rate of seepage is increasing quite quickly at this point. The location is shown in this image, provided by Focus:

Note two things here. First, the seepage is probably allowing water to flow beneath the spillway, which will be reducing the resistance to erosion. Second, and more importantly, even though the water flow here is just 0.23 cubic metres per second, a substantial amount of scour and erosion has already been initiated. Readers will not need me to describe the implications of this in terms of the likely performance of the spillway when water flow commences.

3. The authorities are now admitting that the dam will probably breach
For the first time, government agencies are admitting that the dam is likely to erode away. For example, Onlinenews is reporting that Lt General Shahid Niaz stated today that the water will be flushed out within 2 to 3 days. This is a good development. Indeed, he is also reported to have said "“Such types of lakes have to ultimately breach and there is no chance for its preservation as a dam or a permanent water reservoir,”

I also note that he stated that "international experts’ help is also being taken on the issue". I wonder who is providing this help, as they haven't spoken to me. I am delighted that they are getting some expert input though.

I'll post again on this tomorrow. The current probable window of overtopping is 22nd to 26th May, though this could easily change to an earlier date.