How to Win a War with China

[feilong]

This title is stupid, whoever wrote this article is world dumbest. Title should read like this " how to win a war with the Viet Cong, and or how to win over North Korea". Face the Syrian first before talk about "how to win a war with China".

 

[jhungary]

Spy agencies can easily be known. Zhou enlai was one of the leaders of communist spy network, he operated right next to Dai li the Nationalist spy master during WW2 I mean he was in the next building, and he was still very effective.

Just because people knows about CIA doesn't mean anything, they can tell you who their director is, who anybody is, but that doesn't mean crap. The can give tours of their head office to terrorists and these people wouldn't leave knowing anymore than what some people in the building like for lunch and even that could be false. On top of that even if CIA announces exactly what they are doing and with whom, people would still not believe them, so this harms them in no way.

I said buildings meaning people, meaning an organization, an group, real estate developers have buildings doesn't mean they are listening to America. You said CIA isn't big enough to listen to America (unless I misunderstood here)

CIA could just be a front, but seeing as I don't and don't need to know the other branches, I'm just using CIA as a general name for spy agency.

Also, Snowden didn't say crap, obviously America keeps tabs on people, the war on terror isn't a blind war on terror. Obama can no more control the CIA as he can of the weather.

IF even a dictator like Chang KAi Shek almost lost control of his spy agency, because of the massive influence of his spy master Daili, who by the way greatly exceeded his original task and infiltrated every department and even has an army of hundreds of thousands of American equipped soldiers and the whole of the police department, then how could an elected official hope to even know the extent of the spy agency? Simply because of a few words on a piece of paper that says he should know?

And authorized to tell me? When did you become a leader of CIA. I didn't know CIA let in Austrilian/Swedish/Hong Konger/whatever else into their agencies.

First of all, spy agency recruit expat mostly, that way you got a higher probability to flip local asset in your target country, if you introduce a local, 1.) they are hard to flip, 2.) you can't be sure they don't take 2 or more paycheque

You will be amaze what CIA let in

2.) I have DOD TS clearance which is the second top armed force member can get, inherit from the day I work at HHB S2, I work with special force team (A team) on ground in Afghanistan, I know more about spying than you.

In deed I have many nationality (that's gone against my clearance level, hence I cannot get T1 clearance) I was train with HUMINT collection.

Problem with your thinking is, people knows a lot about CIA, they would expect funding piped thru to the name of CIA. The first thing you know about intel is "denial ops" which your country can denial involvement, which works involving starting a coup, with money, paper trail everywhere, do you think an agency like CIA can actually work Denial op?

You need anonymity to work intelligence asset, of course it won't matter if you are talking about intelligence and counter-intelligence? But ever wonder where those intel came from? Do you think it came from CIA source?

And do you know why MI people call those agent OGA?

I don't know what you do for a living, but what you know about intelligence is utter minimal

Simply speaking, you can't spy if everybody know people are watching.

 

[cnleio]

China is not small country & less people like Iraq/Libya/Afghan, the War with China easily lead to another World War.

I don't think Hot War between America & China just limited by conventional warfare, both have Nuke & ICBM at last nuclear weapons will work . Our mass produce weapons just prepare for WWIII.

 

[Genesis]

First of all, spy agency recruit expat mostly, that way you got a higher probability to flip local asset in your target country, if you introduce a local, 1.) they are hard to flip, 2.) you can't be sure they don't take 2 or more paycheque

You will be amaze what CIA let in

2.) I have DOD TS clearance which is the second top armed force member can get, inherit from the day I work at HHB S2, I work with special force team (A team) on ground in Afghanistan, I know more about spying than you.

In deed I have many nationality (that's gone against my clearance level, hence I cannot get T1 clearance) I was train with HUMINT collection.

Problem with your thinking is, people knows a lot about CIA, they would expect funding piped thru to the name of CIA. The first thing you know about intel is "denial ops" which your country can denial involvement, which works involving starting a coup, with money, paper trail everywhere, do you think an agency like CIA can actually work Denial op?

You need anonymity to work intelligence asset, of course it won't matter if you are talking about intelligence and counter-intelligence? But ever wonder where those intel came from? Do you think it came from CIA source?

And do you know why MI people call those agent OGA?

I don't know what you do for a living, but what you know about intelligence is utter minimal

Simply speaking, you can't spy if everybody know people are watching.

That was sarcasm, but I guess it's harder to know on the internet, besides, it's a minor point anyways.

As to can't spy if they know? I'm a system analyst, I can spy on almost anyone given enough time and patience, and I can do it while I'm telling them exactly what I am doing. The only hard part is to hack into someone who is also knowledgeable in the computer field, then not only do I need to be stealthy but also need timing.

But for the common man, given the CIA's resources I can easily spy on everyone on every device and 24/7 while telling them exactly what I'm doing and there's nothing they can do to stop it. Especially if money can "buy" me a chance to add some "new" functions to a program/app/device.

The CIA can easily deny money trail, war on drugs is never ending, true, it is impossible to stop everything, but the fact that it's rampant means they are not doing EVERYTHING they could. Why?

All spy agencies uses drug money and money from illegal activities, it's nothing against the Americans, it's just human nature, and it's most time needed to keep certain things off the books.

I know you aren't actually Chinese, but being Chinese I know tons of ways of saying one thing and doing the other. For an agency like CIA, they can pick and choose what they report, like hey we spent this money to buy some lunch, but don't report on the way to lunch we also killed that other guy.

 

[Obambam]

China is not small country & less people like Iraq/Libya/Afghan, the War with China easily lead to another World War.

I don't think Hot War between America & China just limited by conventional warfare, both have Nuke & ICBM at last nuclear weapons will work . Our mass produce weapons just prepare for WWIII.

Launching ICBM's from the American continent will easily trigger responses from both China and Russia. They will not sit and wait for the nukes to land and will likely end up firing some of theirs across the Pacific, in retaliation, when they spot launches from satellites and then see these things lighting up their radars.
The US will be blitzed by both China and Russia. Hence all three parties always avoid direct confrontations.

 

[jhungary]

That was sarcasm, but I guess it's harder to know on the internet, besides, it's a minor point anyways.

As to can't spy if they know? I'm a system analyst, I can spy on almost anyone given enough time and patience, and I can do it while I'm telling them exactly what I am doing. The only hard part is to hack into someone who is also knowledgeable in the computer field, then not only do I need to be stealthy but also need timing.

But for the common man, given the CIA's resources I can easily spy on everyone on every device and 24/7 while telling them exactly what I'm doing and there's nothing they can do to stop it. Especially if money can "buy" me a chance to add some "new" functions to a program/app/device.

The CIA can easily deny money trail, war on drugs is never ending, true, it is impossible to stop everything, but the fact that it's rampant means they are not doing EVERYTHING they could. Why?

All spy agencies uses drug money and money from illegal activities, it's nothing against the Americans, it's just human nature, and it's most time needed to keep certain things off the books.

I know you aren't actually Chinese, but being Chinese I know tons of ways of saying one thing and doing the other. For an agency like CIA, they can pick and choose what they report, like hey we spent this money to buy some lunch, but don't report on the way to lunch we also killed that other guy.

Dude, I worked intel for 2 years. I have been interviewing thousand of people, and interrogating some in my time, let me tell you what I know and what did you think wrong

1.) you think if you can hack in somebody computer and you can get any intel you want

Spy craft 101 most intel are existed as one directional non-electronic base media, a coded letter, a messenger, an cryptic broadcast (those number station). Contrary to what you think, hacking on someone computer is actually the easy part. Which computer to hack and what do you expect is on that computer is actually the hardest, in the field, we called it human factor, as you cannot control what your mark put in their computer for you to hack, this is always a variable.

2.) When I say you can't spy if you know someone is watch, it does not mean you have zero way to spy, but you can still spy on someone when he know so body is watch, just you will always get a big fat zero every time you spy on them.

Kind of like, if you are a driver like to speed, and you go 10 km over the speed limit every time, when you enter a stretch of road that said speed camera ahead, chances are you will reduce your speed

Apply them on the case in Afghanistan. If you were up to something no good, a war over there, you would expect someone you saw, someone who talk to you is CIA, you will have a tendency not to divulge any information when you talk to anyone, and you will act extra careful. This is a human psychological condition and this is not the optimal level of human condition we want when we trying to get info on someone

3) CIA is also an governmental agency, you cannot approve a budget and do not care how they use it, in fact, if you ask me they are a bit underfunded for a spy network. Why?

CIA were basically tasked for mission aboard, and yet with a mere 15.billion reported annual budget, put a side salary (average 65 k per) for 20000-25000 employee and oversea asset, and management staff, audit and hard asset maintenance, you are talking about only a few hundred millions left for spying on the world...

Hundred of millions may sound like a lot of money if you are going robust candy with, but in the intel world? When you require state of the art technology and state of the art training to spy? A few hundred millions is just spare change. Even Mercedes have more annual R&D budget than the CIA operational budget

The CIA type guy I saw and interact with in Afghanistan is no where as Advance and all mighty as you said, most of them involve hard work, interview HVI in camp and conduct search and stuff like that

I am not going to say or justified intel agency using drug money to operate, fact is, we made a deal with the cartel back in the 80s, we control the flow of drug to enter the US and our DEA boy bust dealer on the front in exchange for the dealer not to flood our street with their product, you never understood the relationship between drug and intelligence, over in Afghanistan, we have explicit order not to destroy opium field if you see one, unless its necessary to do so, official reason is, we don't want to **** with the life of an average farmer, actually it's because we need them to bride the Taliban, so they are willing to talk, what we learn from Iraq is, you cannot expect to invade and dissolve the government without starting insurgency and civil war, if you need stabilisation, you will need at least some of those old commander to prevent the whole country to fall apart, kind of like the drug dealer thing

Dude, you watch too much TV or YouTube about spy and CIA, you are not actually very well informed

But hey, feel free to believe whatever you believe, i don't really care

 

[Genesis]

@jhungary

1) We are not talking crazy terrorists here, we are arguing that the US is also watching its citizens and I'm saying the difference is the action taken against them. We are hard on somethings and the US is hard on others.


2) Hacking doesn't mean I'm going into someone's computer, without spending too much time, let me say this, one of the programs I was involved in, as a junior recent graduate, we could have easily put some more code into the program and it would track and sent data to anyone we choose as the program is used.

So basically unless the common man has a dedicated social network that hasn't been hacked and added some "virus," or a dedicated email service, then facebook, google and all of these things can easily be tracked 24/7. With a word filter, we can easily filter the content which may raise some eyebrows.


3) CIA's official budget and actual budget cannot be the same, even the transparent budgets are rising here and there and you are saying the CIA isn't?

Besides, I have mentioned before CIA is just a name I'm using as a general term for all American spy agencies.

I never said drug money can't be used, it's for a nation's interests and security even organ money isn't off the table. Moral is for those with little at stake.


lastly I'm just discussing something that affects me in no way, and what I believe matters little, and it's a subject I hardly cares that I would do further investigating.


Now back to the main point are you saying the CIA is not watching the Americans? Not sure what scale they are doing it, but they can't be just sitting around eating donuts all day, that job is taken.

 

[jhungary]

@jhungary

1) We are not talking crazy terrorists here, we are arguing that the US is also watching its citizens and I'm saying the difference is the action taken against them. We are hard on somethings and the US is hard on others.


2) Hacking doesn't mean I'm going into someone's computer, without spending too much time, let me say this, one of the programs I was involved in, as a junior recent graduate, we could have easily put some more code into the program and it would track and sent data to anyone we choose as the program is used.

So basically unless the common man has a dedicated social network that hasn't been hacked and added some "virus," or a dedicated email service, then facebook, google and all of these things can easily be tracked 24/7. With a word filter, we can easily filter the content which may raise some eyebrows.


3) CIA's official budget and actual budget cannot be the same, even the transparent budgets are rising here and there and you are saying the CIA isn't?

Besides, I have mentioned before CIA is just a name I'm using as a general term for all American spy agencies.

I never said drug money can't be used, it's for a nation's interests and security even organ money isn't off the table. Moral is for those with little at stake.


lastly I'm just discussing something that affects me in no way, and what I believe matters little, and it's a subject I hardly cares that I would do further investigating.


Now back to the main point are you saying the CIA is not watching the Americans? Not sure what scale they are doing it, but they can't be just sitting around eating donuts all day, that job is taken.

1.) I never said CIA were watching every american, they did watch American, and that is illegal as the charter of CIA is not to touch local business, but the likeiness of CIA or whatever alphabetic agency are watching the ALL the american is slim, if they have to dig into computer search history and piravcy information to every american, they need more, way more than 20,000 employee, seeing they also responsible for overseas intelligence network.

Do you know how PRISM actually work?? The US have the means to monitor american, but they do not have the resource to all American

And i was talking about intelligence collection, not simply watching.

2.) What you referring to is Data filtering, it is the first part of so caleld "censorship", however those are not count as censorship until you actually use those result fro mdata sensoring to to something.
We use data filter in the field a lot to, whenever we got a HVI, we will start monitoring the phone call and e-mail in the area we believe the HVI was active, and by capture word about his name, alias, his work and so on, we can track where he were and what they were talking about.

Imagine 20,000 to 25,000 employee trying to filter and follow up 300 millions american data??

PRISM only work when there are specific even triggering the monitor and search, filtering is one of the requirement to be met to have thopse "Unwarranted" search. There is a different saying CIA monitor American and CIA Monitor suspect illegally, first one implying that CIA monitoring the whole americ, where as the second one implying CIA operate illegally INSIDE US for intel.

Do you know which one the CIA were doing??

3.) Budget is budget, you cannot just asying those spy agency are clandestine and they therefore ahve a shadow budget, the government have a definite amount of money, now, unless you are claiming the spy agency in the US operate on donation from other Governmental structure, for the sake of planning a governmental budget, you need to fixate on how much spy agency can use.

Apart from CIA or any spy agency, all other governmental budget is of public record, it would not be hard to simply substract all other departmental budget from the total budget and see how much spy agency did use.

You cannot work that in China because the budget reproted by all governmental agency did not give a clear account, but the GAO would have the asses of those director if they have reported an unclear budget, national security reason can only use a few time, when you are talking about the Secretary of Education, you can not use National security as a reason to hide your budget.

Finally, i never say US Government were not spying on their own people, i said even before snowden, people already know US Government have some sort of system in place, now they know it is called PRISM.

But if you ask me, do i care if our government spy on me? IF they want to put mroe camera in for revenue and i will say no, if they want some certain power to look up some dude computer when he was acting suspiciouskly, so i don't get blown up, i would say, keep those survillence coming.

You cannot choose to be safe and yet does not give our authority any power to prevent it. Think of why "Attempted Murder" is a legitimate criminal charge? I mean how do we charge someone before an actual crime even committed? And do we simply arrest every person who said "I am going to kill you" out in the public? Then there goes our freedom of speech thing.

If you do not give our authority the authority to arrest before a murder took place, the only other way is for that person to actually killed someone before the law can touch him. Now you tell me, if you want "Attempted Murder" continue to be a crime? Or you think this is monitoring people mind and is a wrong thing??

 

[Kartal]

Interesting article but i wanted to remind one thing. Soviets collapsed because of this arming race. If any country starts arming race with US it will be Start of falling. US non stop in war since WWII. Because they can finance it they have most powerfull weapon USD.

 

[Oldman1]

China is still a landlock nation, they can transport their good through land and bypass the ocean route all at once. 
US haven't engage in any naval conflict after ww2. 
China border with over 17 countries by land, naval blockade on China won't do US any good.

So what? The U.S. Navy hasn't engaged a foreign navy from 1814 to 1898 so 84 year difference. Then you have 1898 to 1941 because WW1 does not count since U.S. destroyers only did convoy duties and no major engagements, so your statement has no merit. And don't think that we are just blockading. China has many juicy targets.

 

[UKBengali]

Interesting article but i wanted to remind one thing. Soviets collapsed because of this arming race. If any country starts arming race with US it will be Start of falling. US non stop in war since WWII. Because they can finance it they have most powerfull weapon USD.

If you mean China then the situation is completely different to that of the Soviet Union due to 2 principal reasons.

1. China'e economy is already much larger than the Soviet Union was when compared to the US in the 1980s. As every year passes then it just gets that much closer to matching US GDP.

2. China is actually kind of forcing the US to spend more than it would like as it is trying to develop stealth fighters, destroyers, SSNs and SSBNs as quickly as possible. If not for the massive Chinese military build-up then the US could easily reduce defence expenditure by 25% and still remain the uncontested military superpower. The US is currently spending over 4% of it's GDP on defence which is too much.

3. China is only spending a relatively lowly 2% of GDP on defence and that seems to be forcing the US to spend more than 4% as noted above. So in a weird way, all that China has to do is keep spending 2% of it's GDP on defence and that would force the US to divert more money than it should from it's civilian economy to the unproductive military.

 

[Kartal]

If you mean China then the situation is completely different to that of the Soviet Union due to 2 principal reasons.

1. China'e economy is already much larger than the Soviet Union was when compared to the US in the 1980s. As every year passes then it just gets that much closer to matching US GDP.

2. China is actually kind of forcing the US to spend more than it would like as it is trying to develop stealth fighters, destroyers, SSNs and SSBNs as quickly as possible. If not for the massive Chinese military build-up then the US could easily reduce defence expenditure by 25% and still remain the uncontested military superpower. The US is currently spending over 4% of it's GDP on defence which is too much.

3. China is only spending a relatively lowly 2% of GDP on defence and that seems to be forcing the US to spend more than 4% as noted above. So in a weird way, all that China has to do is keep spending 2% of it's GDP on defence and that would force the US to divert more money than it should from it's civilian economy to the unproductive military.

My friend i think you are missing one point US selling USD with zero cost. If you want to have 100 USD you must produce and export a product 100 USD value. But they are selling it with 0 cost. World money because of that they finance any military research or invest. I am not saying China is not growing but no country capable of financing 13 aircraft carrier like US for example.

 

[applesauce]

My friend i think you are missing one point US selling USD with zero cost. If you want to have 100 USD you must produce and export a product 100 USD value. But they are selling it with 0 cost. World money because of that they finance any military research or invest. I am not saying China is not growing but no country capable of financing 13 aircraft carrier like US for example.

this is not 100% true, every country produces their own currency for essentially free. one yuan does not cost more to make than 1 dollar. since the chinese military is far more self sufficient than most, it pays it self in yuan rather than dollars, that and the fact that chinese labor is cheaper, balances the field.

what the US does have an advantage in is that the dollar is an international reserve currency, meaning it is able to print tons of them and still face relatively little inflation. but this is not a magic pill, there are still repercussions, nothing is without cost.

but even with the greater ability to print money, the chinese have another advantage to again even the field, that is, the US spending is spread around the world, meaning, although US spending is higher, the chinese spending is more focus to one area, and because of that, it can even achieve local superiority.

further more, your assertion that no country can finance 13 carriers other than the US, is false. chinese spending currently is only at ~2% of gdp, if it doubles to 4%(still below US levels) that is an extra 100 billion+ dollars every year, which is far more than enough to finance 13 carriers and their supports. ability to pay at this time isnt the problem, the problem is, do we need 13 at this time? every dollar that goes to the military is 1 less dollar for other programs like education, infrastructure and R and D. china is still developing, there are still many many important internal problems that need solving before projecting such massive force externally, after all there is no imminent threat of war, and although china and the US are competitors they are no enemies, certainly not in the way that the US and USSR was, and thus there is no need to try to match the US across the board like the USSR did.