How Putin outsmarted everyone

[jhungary]

True, but it gives an calculation to the state on how much risk they can take.

don't think the number they gave to ImF is correct, lol. it's about 4 trillions dollars

 

[Declein]

Depends how big the reserve of the Russian state is.

Nope..to occupy something the size of Ukraine you need what?.. around 500-700k troops give or take..if you need to keep the occupation
The more realistic scenario would be to close E Ukraine, which in itself would be very hard due to terrain and would anyway require somewhere around 100-150 thousand troops. How much does that cost and for how long?
Hell, Russia doesn't even have that many combat ready troops in the first place and would need to draw from other theaters or from B divisions, in consequence weakening other areas (hello Caucasus)

^^ That would be without taking in to account the Ukrainian desire to fight it out and the Wests reaction which would sanction Russia in to the ground in such an event.

There's also the obvious which gets ignored: despite being completely unfit to fight, riddled with moles and in a decaying state, the UA didn't collapse last summer, and is improving as we speak

 

[Superboy]

Nope..to occupy something the size of Ukraine you need what?.. around 500-700k troops give or take..if you need to keep the occupation
The more realistic scenario would be to close E Ukraine, which in itself would be very hard due to terrain and would anyway require somewhere around 100-150 thousand troops. How much does that cost and for how long?
Hell, Russia doesn't even have that many combat ready troops in the first place and would need to draw from other theaters or from B divisions, in consequence weakening other areas (hello Caucasus)

^^ That would be without taking in to account the Ukrainian desire to fight it out and the Wests reaction which would sanction Russia in to the ground in such an event.

There's also the obvious which gets ignored: despite being completely unfit to fight, riddled with moles and in a decaying state, the UA didn't collapse last summer, and is improving as we speak

Why would Russia need troops to occupy Ukraine? Ukrainians speak Russian, unlike Iraqis who do not speak American. Ukrainians do not mind Russian occupation, unlike Iraqis who did not want American occupation. Germany easily annexed Austria in 1938 and didn't even need to station any soldiers in Austria because Austrians are ethnically German. Russia can raise a force of say 200,000 pro Russia Ukrainian militia to keep order in Ukraine.

 

[Nefer]

don't think the number they gave to ImF is correct, lol. it's about 4 trillions dollars

8.4 Trillions of rubles I just heard.

 

[Penguin]

Maybe some volunteers KIA, but no service soldiers. Reason is because Ukrainian soldiers do not dare to shoot at Russian soldiers.




That would be against the will of the people.

"

Oh really, and how would you know? Have you conducted a poll?

 

[Superboy]

"

Oh really, and how would you know? Have you conducted a poll?

Because Ukrainian soldiers do not dare to shoot at Russians. How many Russian aid trucks have been shot at? 0

 

[jhungary]

Nope..to occupy something the size of Ukraine you need what?.. around 500-700k troops give or take..if you need to keep the occupation
The more realistic scenario would be to close E Ukraine, which in itself would be very hard due to terrain and would anyway require somewhere around 100-150 thousand troops. How much does that cost and for how long?
Hell, Russia doesn't even have that many combat ready troops in the first place and would need to draw from other theaters or from B divisions, in consequence weakening other areas (hello Caucasus)

^^ That would be without taking in to account the Ukrainian desire to fight it out and the Wests reaction which would sanction Russia in to the ground in such an event.

There's also the obvious which gets ignored: despite being completely unfit to fight, riddled with moles and in a decaying state, the UA didn't collapse last summer, and is improving as we speak

If, the Russian really trying to go an invade Ukraine, the probable action would be DRIVE INTO Kiev and maybe topple the government and get a regime change, if they are deciding to do that, they would only need about 150-200k troops.

Russia currently have about 40K in that border region for "exercise" and rumor has it that they are actually going home for Christmas. And probably less than 10K remaining after maybe a week. So there are in no way, shape or form that Russian have enough number to do anything except helping the rebel.

Ukrainian, on the other hand, start from shit. At the start of the whole thing, not more than 1 brigade (realistically 1600-2500 men) are combat ready, Those are the carry over from Ukrainian NATO Training Mission in Iraq, and they are not really that proficiency as well as the NTM-I finished in 2008 (6 years ago)

I am actually surprise to see the Ukrainian Force can hold on to Rebel/Russian Onslaught, and most of them are militiamen

If Russian cant finish them last summer, there are virtually no chance they can do anything now, Russian position got weaker and Ukrainian Force position is getting stronger

8.4 Trillions of rubles I just heard.

umm, that's about 100 billions dollars.. given 1 USD = 80 Rouble..

If that's true, then there are no way Russian can hold on supplying the rebel for maybe more than 6 months

"

Oh really, and how would you know? Have you conducted a poll?

why are you going all serious with superboy?? lol

Listen to what he said, then laugh a little, that's how I dealt with him. lol, You never gone serious with your fart cushion
lol

 

[Superboy]

If Russian cant finish them last summer, there are virtually no chance they can do anything now, Russian position got weaker and Ukrainian Force position is getting stronger

Check how long it took Kosovo to be independent from Serbia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be independent from Georgia, the US to be independent from Britain. All of the took over 8 years. This is only the first year of Donbas war of independence.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers already died, for nothing. Donetsk and Lugansk are still under rebel control. Question is, how many Ukrainian soldiers deaths can the Ukrainian public tolerate before they say enough is enough, end the ATO.

 

[Penguin]

Check how long it took Kosovo to be independent from Serbia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be independent from Georgia, the US to be independent from Britain. All of the took over 8 years. This is only the first year of Donbas war of independence.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers already died, for nothing. Donetsk and Lugansk are still under rebel control. Question is, how many Ukrainian soldiers deaths can the Ukrainian public tolerate before they say enough is enough, end the ATO.

 

[jhungary]

Check how long it took Kosovo to be independent from Serbia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be independent from Georgia, the US to be independent from Britain. All of the took over 8 years. This is only the first year of Donbas war of independence.

Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers already died, for nothing. Donetsk and Lugansk are still under rebel control. Question is, how many Ukrainian soldiers deaths can the Ukrainian public tolerate before they say enough is enough, end the ATO.

LOL

Then I don't really understand, according to you, Ukrainian Soldier Dare not fire at Russian Soldier, then would the Russian only need to march 1 soldier in to the Kiev Parliament and kill the President of Ukrainian and the whole thing will be over??

 

[Superboy]

LOL

Then I don't really understand, according to you, Ukrainian Soldier Dare not fire at Russian Soldier, then would the Russian only need to march 1 soldier in to the Kiev Parliament and kill the President of Ukrainian and the whole thing will be over??

I suppose. It's not like Ukraine dares to fight a war with Russia.