How Putin outsmarted everyone

[gau8av]

Actually, war now is on stalemate, the frontline has not been changed since October. The initial shock of Russia Para and Russia Special Force have been absorbed and now both side has been using the ceasefire to rearm and resupply.

Time is on Ukraine side tho. As Russia is now on a ticking clock, It's estimated by OECD that funding the rebel costing 5 to 6 millions USD per day 3 to 5 billions in general for all the welfare payment, military cost, and Russia own economy is about to collapse. Either Rebel can finish off the war t few months, or Russia have to seriously think they may need to pull out to avoid being sucked in another "Afghanistan"

The only thing left now is see who collapse first. The Ukrainian defence in Eastern Ukraine? Or Russia Economy first.

But highly unlikely the defence is gonna break soon, as news like this keep coming in

Donetsk airport terminal ‘free of militants’ : UNIAN news (2 weeks ago)

Боевики пообещали оставить "киборгов" в покое | УКРИНФОРМ

I don't think this is anything like Afghanistan. The Russian Duma might pass a law that would authorize use of their military inside Ukraine, meaning a full scale invasion. If that happens the Ukies will capitulate in a matter of days and NATO will do nothing but sit and watch.

 

[Shadow_Hunter]

OP forgot to check the ruble and the policy rate of Russian central bank

 

[jhungary]

Because Crimea is what they wanted?

If Crimea is what they wanted, then explain to me why they are fighting in Eastern Ukraine??

How easy for Russia to march 20,000 soldier to Eastern Ukraine and finish it off? Or you are saying Russia enjoy spending money and their soldier but denial any involvement?? How fun is that??

 

[gau8av]

by their own charter, neither the EU nor NATO can absorb another state while there is a civil war being fought.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

If Crimea is what they wanted, then explain to me why they are fighting in Eastern Ukraine??

To keep Ukraine divided?

What they really wanted was Crimea, and they already took it.

 

[jhungary]

I don't think this is anything like Afghanistan. The Russian Duma might pass a law that would authorize use of their military inside Ukraine, meaning a full scale invasion. If that happens the Ukies will capitulate in a matter of days and NATO will do nothing but sit and watch.

If they have resource and money to do it, they would have done it already, why use rebel fighter when you have 20,000 soldier just station across the border? Afraid the west found out and sanction them? Well, they already did, and they have already done a lot of sanction even Russia protest their innocents.

So why depend on the rebel and don't just march their troop in Eastern Ukraine like they do with Georgia? literally, the Russian have nothing to lose.

I never underestimate Russian Capability, but you seems very much underestimate the Ukrainian Capability. What the west did was an open invitation to the Russian, either make a move in Ukraine or get out. So far, I have yet to see Russian making a move.

To keep Ukraine divided?

What they really wanted was Crimea, and they already took it.

But they aren't keeping Ukraine divided. Hell, 5 months in, the Russian can't even get Donetsk Airport divided.

BBC News - Ukraine crisis: New battle rages at Donetsk airport

Donetsk airport terminal ‘free of militants’ : UNIAN news

Для прекращения огня в Донецкий аэропорт выехали украинский и российский генералы - АТО : Новости УНИАН

On the other hand

http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrSbmWxWpFU31wAiy8L5gt.;_ylu=X3oDMTE0MXJnOWhvBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMwRjb2xvA2dxMQR2dGlkA1ZJUEFVMjhfMQ--/RV=2/RE=1418840881/RO=10/RU=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4bb50fcc-7937-11e4-9567-00144feabdc0.html/RK=0/RS=_cDSMmnJO9Ntgb__OeBzSXEavF0-

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

II never underestimate Russian Capability, but you seems very much underestimate the Ukrainian Capability. What the west did was an open invitation to the Russian, either make a move in Ukraine or get out. So far, I have yet to see Russian making a move.

Annexing Crimea doesn't count as a "move against Ukraine"?

So do you guys now recognize that Crimea is not a part of Ukraine?

 

[gau8av]

If they have resource and money to do it, they would have done it already, why use rebel fighter when you have 20,000 soldier just station across the border? Afraid the west found out and sanction them? Well, they already did, and they have already done a lot of sanction even Russia protest their innocents.

So why depend on the rebel and don't just march their troop in Eastern Ukraine like they do with Georgia? literally, the Russian have nothing to lose.

I never underestimate Russian Capability, but you seems very much underestimate the Ukrainian Capability. What the west did was an open invitation to the Russian, either make a move in Ukraine or get out. So far, I have yet to see Russian making a move.

If the Ukrainians had any sort of capability we would have seen it in Crimea, they were literally not allowed to even leave their barracks lol

Russia have supported the rebel cause in the east, but not too a very large extent and that is why they have been protesting their innocence.

who knows, though.. with the economy looking like it's going to tank, they may go on a full war footing and ultimately might launch a full scale invasion. They already know NATO will be but a silent spectator, they will take all the way up to Kiev easily and that will end any EU/NATO dreams of absorbing Ukraine once and for all.

That's a worst case scenario, but that'll end the whole Ukraine drama.

 

[jhungary]

Annexing Crimea doesn't count as a "move against Ukraine"?

So do you guys now recognize that Crimea is not a part of Ukraine?

technically no, Crimea is neither Ukrainian Land nor Russian they belong to tartar

And is your disc have another track? Said so many time, Crimea is not important for Ukrain to lose and they are glad to lose it as they are majority Ethnic Russian there, will be an obstacle if Ukraine go full pro west. Now crimea gone as well as half of the prowest opposition.

Thats why Ukraine did not even fight in Crimea but fought in Eastern Ukraine. Even tho there were more support from Russia in Eastern Ukraine then in Crimea

If the Ukrainians had any sort of capability we would have seen it in Crimea, they were literally not allowed to even leave their barracks lol

Russia have supported the rebel cause in the east, but not too a very large extent and that is why they have been protesting their innocence.

who knows, though.. with the economy looking like it's going to tank, they may go on a full war footing and ultimately might launch a full scale invasion. They already know NATO will be but a silent spectator, they will take all the way up to Kiev easily and that will end any EU/NATO dreams of absorbing Ukraine once and for all.

That's a worst case scenario, but that'll end the whole Ukraine drama.

lol you really believe that?

By the way NATO DID NOT SAT IDLE like you said, or else how can the puny Ukraine defence force hold out combine GRU commando and spetsnaz attack for over 5 months

Not going to tell you what kind of support is there but there are no way Ukrainian can hold on the airport by themselves

had a lot of fun but i need to sign off. Man gotta eat somehow

 

[somsak]

Is weapon that expensive? Given Russia can produce them from metals?

 

[christian warrior]

I don't give a d about CCP. I am Chinese so I work for China.

But u r a Canadian.

 

[gau8av]

lol you really believe that?

what, the part about literally not being allowed out of their barracks when the Russians went in to save Crimea from the maidan nazis ? hell yes.. and they had full stocked armories and small and heavy arms but pussied out of a fight.

To be fair though, the political situation in Kiev was all chaos with no real leadership (thanks to the US sponsored coup and all the ensuing violence)

By the way NATO DID NOT SAT IDLE like you said, or else how can the puny Ukraine defence force hold out combine GRU commando and spetsnaz attack for over 5 months

firstly, you're exaggerating a bit there but Russian paras/SF did come and help the rebels beat back the Kiev forces, but only for a short period during the counter offensive after they had to retreat from Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

and NATO did sit idle and will continue to if this escalates, else they risk a direct confrontation with the Russian military.. article 5 does not apply to Ukraine. They've done some joint drills in Lviv and the western parts with the Ukies apart from state department contractors training (confirmed) and possibly even fighting alongside the Kiev forces in the donbass

Not going to tell you what kind of support is there but there are no way Ukrainian can hold on the airport by themselves

not going to tell me there are US state department mercenaries ?

man, there are literally miles of nuclear blast proof underground bunkers and tunnels under the Donetsk airport (old soviet architectural doctrine)

my old "cyborg" granny could sit in those with her cat all day knitting as grad salvos fell from the skies

had a lot of fun but i need to sign off. Man gotta eat somehow

bon appétit



I know @vostok is not a neutral observer but perhaps he can come and give you some facts and back it up with citations and proper proof, and correct me if I got something wrong.

 

[vostok]

what, the part about literally not being allowed out of their barracks when the Russians went in to save Crimea from the maidan nazis ? hell yes.. and they had full stocked armories and small and heavy arms but pussied out of a fight.

To be fair though, the political situation in Kiev was all chaos with no real leadership (thanks to the US sponsored coup and all the ensuing violence)

firstly, you're exaggerating a bit there but Russian paras/SF did come and help the rebels beat back the Kiev forces, but only for a short period during the counter offensive after they had to retreat from Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

and NATO did sit idle and will continue to if this escalates, else they risk a direct confrontation with the Russian military.. article 5 does not apply to Ukraine. They've done some joint drills in Lviv and the western parts with the Ukies apart from state department contractors training (confirmed) and possibly even fighting alongside the Kiev forces in the donbass



not going to tell me there are US state department mercenaries ?

man, there are literally miles of nuclear blast proof underground bunkers and tunnels under the Donetsk airport (old soviet architectural doctrine)

my old "cyborg" granny could sit in those with her cat all day knitting as grad salvos fell from the skies


bon appétit



I know @vostok is not a neutral observer but perhaps he can come and give you some facts and back it up with citations and proper proof, and correct me if I got something wrong.

80% of the Ukr militaries in Crimea switched to serve to the Russian army. And very happy with it. If Putin entered "polite people" on the whole territory of Ukraine result would be about the same. Apart from a few western regions, where the strong position of the Nazis.

 

[gau8av]

80% of the Ukr militaries in Crimea switched to serve to the Russian army. And very happy with it. If Putin entered "polite people" on the whole territory of Ukraine result would be about the same. Apart from a few western regions, where the strong position of the Nazis.

how do you see the situation in the rest of Ukraine now, is the western region completely taken over by the nazis or is there still some support for Russians in Kiev ?

do you see an escalation now that there is so much pressure on the Russian economy by western sanctions ?

 

[vostok]

how do you see the situation in the rest of Ukraine now, is the western region completely taken over by the nazis or is there still some support for Russians in Kiev ?

do you see an escalation now that there is so much pressure on the Russian economy by western sanctions ?

Western regions under full control of the Nazis. They removed all professional managers and put "ideologically correct" ones. No one requires professionalism any more - the main thing to shouting Nazi slogans. In Kiev, every day for 8 hours electricity is cut off. Everywhere strikes, prices increased by 2 times. Gloom, in general. And this is only the beginning of "reforms".