How Pakistan’s Nuclear Stockpile Compares with the Rest of the World

[The SC]

Only 2 countries have the means for that simulation today
and Pakistan is not one of them.

This is not computer graphics you're talking about.

Good day, Tay.

"The fastest supercomputer currently in use in Pakistan is developed and hosted by the National University of Sciences and Technology at its modeling and simulation research centre."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supercomputing_in_Pakistan

"ScREC is a supercomputer developed by the Research Centre for Modeling and Simulation (RCMS) at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) in Islamabad, Pakistan. With a 132 teraflops performance, it is currently the fastest supercomputer in Pakistan"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ScREC

We are talking about supercomputers not childish talk..

Only 2 countries have the means for that simulation today
and Pakistan is not one of them.

This is not computer graphics you're talking about.

Good day, Tay.

Can you name these 2 countries? there is the US and China, but many other countries do have super computers.. The list is way too long ..

 

[Itachi]

China

Even if we don't have a supercomputer for that specific simulation(s), we can always use China's.

That's what no one is taking into account here. Plus, whose to say we don't have the supercomputer ourselves!?

Also, Pakistan's fastest Supercomputer is at 132 TFLOPS, while the fastest in the world (China's) is at 93.01 PFLOPS.

132 TFLOPS = 0.132 PFLOPS. Still long way to go

 

[Taygibay]

Can you name these 2 countries? there is the US and China, but many other countries do have super computers.. The list is way too long ..

You need 3 tech bricks to make nuclear weapons simulation :

Supercomputers / high quality imagery / real explosions data.

The 2 countries that have all 3 exchanged the first and middle
terms circa 1980-90s. Check known nukes on even wiki* and it
will be easy to know which : America and France. Corporations
involved were GE and Thompson.

The last part is why France continued testing until the very end
of the period allowed, until they became forbidden. We needed
a given amount of test for our data to have statistical meaning.
We're not talking a dozen or even a hundred explosions here but
rather 200+. With that hyperactive test run, we reached 210+.

Russia is the only other nation holding the data amount ( 720 +- ).
America logged over 1K.

Thus, in the immediate future, the only possible new member to
the simulation club could be Russia if they got the other stuff or,
but that would be dissemination and surprising to boot, anyone
that either they or the other two would share the data with.

Flash radiography & supercomputers are easy to get by comparison.

And yes, those 2 knew what they were doing as both the secrecy
and the part about France going on against all public opinions show.

Have a great evening, Tay.

P.S. Depending on your choice of simulation techniques,
you'll also need super lasers or particles accelerators, etc.

* Deux pays sont particulièrement avancés dans ce domaine,
les États-Unis avec le National Ignition Facility (NIF) dont
la construction a coûté 3,5 milliards de dollars (de 1997 à 2009)
et la France avec le Laser Mégajoule du programme Simulation.
Des mouvements pacifistes s'opposent à ce qu'ils jugent comme un
détournement du TICE et qui fait que seuls les États qui en ont les
moyens peuvent poursuivre leurs recherches.


Link to the treaty [ CTBT ] that ended legal nuclear tests :
http://www.un.org/fr/documents/view.../fr/disarmament/instruments/ctbt.shtml&Lang=E

 

[The SC]

You need 3 tech bricks to make nuclear weapons simulation :

Supercomputers / high quality imagery / real explosions data.

The 2 countries that have all 3 exchanged the first and middle
terms circa 1980-90s. Check known nukes on even wiki* and it
will be easy to know which : America and France. Corporations
involved were GE and Thompson.

The last part is why France continued testing until the very end
of the period allowed, until they became forbidden. We needed
a given amount of test for our data to have statistical meaning.
We're not talking a dozen or even a hundred explosions here but
rather 200+. With that hyperactive test run, we reached 210+.

Russia is the only other nation holding the data amount ( 720 +- ).
America logged over 1K.

Thus, in the immediate future, the only possible new member to
the simulation club could be Russia if they got the other stuff or,
but that would be dissemination and surprising to boot, anyone
that either they or the other two would share the data with.

Flash radiography & supercomputers are easy to get by comparison.

And yes, those 2 knew what they were doing as both the secrecy
and the part about France going on against all public opinions show.

Have a great evening, Tay.

P.S. Depending on your choice of simulation techniques,
you'll also need super lasers or particles accelerators, etc.

* Deux pays sont particulièrement avancés dans ce domaine,
les États-Unis avec le National Ignition Facility (NIF) dont
la construction a coûté 3,5 milliards de dollars (de 1997 à 2009)
et la France avec le Laser Mégajoule du programme Simulation.
Des mouvements pacifistes s'opposent à ce qu'ils jugent comme un
détournement du TICE et qui fait que seuls les États qui en ont les
moyens peuvent poursuivre leurs recherches.


Link to the treaty [ CTBT ] that ended legal nuclear tests :
http://www.un.org/fr/documents/view.../fr/disarmament/instruments/ctbt.shtml&Lang=E

Who can say that Russia did not do it with China?
China has the supercomputers and the data for thermonuclear weapons' real tests as well as the technology for high resolution imagery, Pakistan has only the data to borrow for validating its findings..High resolution imagery technology was available on the civilian market a while ago..and let's say that simulation took more time..due to the "slowness" of Pakistan's supercomputer..So even if that has taken a decade (very unlikely), results and design would have been obtained/realized at least 5 to 7 years ago..

Salut..

 

[Taygibay]

Think of the interest for those 3 with that dataset NOT to share it.
Even the US did not share it which is why France had to push far
and long.

If they keep it, they remain sole producers of new proven designs
and not just old types replicas.

It won't be shared.

Salut, Tay.

 

[Itachi]

Think of the interest for those 3 with that dataset NOT to share it.
Even the US did not share it which is why France had to push far
and long.

If they keep it, they remain sole producers of new proven designs
and not just old types replicas.

It won't be shared.

Salut, Tay.

Well, surely the US is well-known to guard it's most precious tech (like the F-22 etc etc) from all of it's allies except one, Israel, i.e.

Which can be the reason why Israel doesn't need to produce nuclear tests (speculations...)

On the other hand, with the fastest supercomputer in the world being in China's hand (currently), China can easily test out results for Pakistan (Pakistan is to China what Israel is to USA)

Plus, Pakistan & China have no beef. One cannot become the enemy of the other (at least in the next 100 years).

 

[DavidSling]

Well, surely the US is well-known to guard it's most precious tech (like the F-22 etc etc) from all of it's allies except one, Israel, i.e.

Which can be the reason why Israel doesn't need to produce nuclear tests (speculations...)

On the other hand, with the fastest supercomputer in the world being in China's hand (currently), China can easily test out results for Pakistan (Pakistan is to China what Israel is to USA)

Plus, Pakistan & China have no beef. One cannot become the enemy of the other (at least in the next 100 years).

There's a suggestion that Israel tested it's nukes virtually, but well, no one knows

 

[Itachi]

There's a suggestion that Israel tested it's nukes virtually, but well, no one knows

Well, it was a thought that crossed my mind without any prior thought, suggestion or investigation. Thanks for the input .

Since Israel is a tech hub of the M.E. and of the whole world, it's not surprising Israel can do that with or without outside help.

Though the raw data itself would have to be provided by outsiders or those who have already tested the nukes.

Given Israel's relationship with both the US & France I can wager at least the former gave the raw data while the later could have taken more diplomatic touch to produce it's data.

Highly possible on both sides.

 

[DavidSling]

Well, it was a thought that crossed my mind without any prior thought, suggestion or investigation. Thanks for the input .

Since Israel is a tech hub of the M.E. and of the whole world, it's not surprising Israel can do that with or without outside help.

Though the raw data itself would have to be provided by outsiders or those who have already tested the nukes.

Given Israel's relationship with both the US & France I can wager at least the former gave the raw data while the later could have taken more diplomatic touch to produce it's data.

Highly possible on both sides.

Anyway, beyond certain number of nukes, number loses any importance, and the more powerful nuke u can deliver, and the way of delivery becomes more relevant.
Nukes are used for deterrence, anyway, and should stay this way

 

[Itachi]

Anyway, beyond certain number of nukes, number loses any importance, and the more powerful nuke u can deliver, and the way of delivery becomes more relevant.
Nukes are used for deterrence, anyway, and should stay this way

Well, that is the old way of thinking, though correct, it's flawed in today's age and secrecy.

1) If nukes are going to be used in today's world, the first ones between major powers (take Russia or/& the US) would be "dirty" nukes. Untraceable or only to those that the progenitor wants to (like say, oh the terrorists blew a dirty bomb in Washington, DC).

The reasoning behind this is that DARPA was seen recently (1-3 years back) testing new smart devices (thousands) spread around the DC area that could monitor any radiation spikes in the devices vicinity.

A thousand spread across a big city like NYC (for example) could easily detect a so called dirty bomb (the original purpose was so too).

2) I always laugh when I see people saying like "Nukes are for deterrence" etc.

Yes, in scenarios like Pakistan-India they definitely are. But the FIRST & foremost use & development of nuclear weapons was NOT as a means of deterrence but as a means of completely annihilate your enemy(ies).

Scenario of WWII and the US using it on a non-nuclear state like Japan (for whatever reasons they might come up with).

Also, with the passage of time & of emerging + disruptive technology, MAD will be a lesser concern to highly advanced nations (or those pioneering the correct fields).

My 2 cents.



*DARPA = Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (under the Pentagon; brainchild of Pentagon)
**MAD = Mutually Assured Destruction (you nuke me, I nuke you, we both die, end of story)

 

[Fawadqasim1]

UK has 512 nuclear warheads carried by just 4 nuclear submarines; 16 missiles x 8 MIRV nuclear warhead x 4 submarines = 512..
So, how come Britain has a total 215-225 on the chart above!!!? most likely they have missed a digit..


There are reports that Pakistani nukes have up to 250kt and up yield since they are the miniaturized Fusion-boosted fission weapons type..

tyler ulam staged radiation implosion weapons to be more correct

You need 3 tech bricks to make nuclear weapons simulation :

Supercomputers / high quality imagery / real explosions data.

The 2 countries that have all 3 exchanged the first and middle
terms circa 1980-90s. Check known nukes on even wiki* and it
will be easy to know which : America and France. Corporations
involved were GE and Thompson.

The last part is why France continued testing until the very end
of the period allowed, until they became forbidden. We needed
a given amount of test for our data to have statistical meaning.
We're not talking a dozen or even a hundred explosions here but
rather 200+. With that hyperactive test run, we reached 210+.

Russia is the only other nation holding the data amount ( 720 +- ).
America logged over 1K.

Thus, in the immediate future, the only possible new member to
the simulation club could be Russia if they got the other stuff or,
but that would be dissemination and surprising to boot, anyone
that either they or the other two would share the data with.

Flash radiography & supercomputers are easy to get by comparison.

And yes, those 2 knew what they were doing as both the secrecy
and the part about France going on against all public opinions show.

Have a great evening, Tay.

P.S. Depending on your choice of simulation techniques,
you'll also need super lasers or particles accelerators, etc.

* Deux pays sont particulièrement avancés dans ce domaine,
les États-Unis avec le National Ignition Facility (NIF) dont
la construction a coûté 3,5 milliards de dollars (de 1997 à 2009)
et la France avec le Laser Mégajoule du programme Simulation.
Des mouvements pacifistes s'opposent à ce qu'ils jugent comme un
détournement du TICE et qui fait que seuls les États qui en ont les
moyens peuvent poursuivre leurs recherches.


Link to the treaty [ CTBT ] that ended legal nuclear tests :
http://www.un.org/fr/documents/view.../fr/disarmament/instruments/ctbt.shtml&Lang=E

The shortest possible way is to have a well tested design.

 

[The SC]

tyler ulam staged radiation implosion weapons to be more correct

Sorry, but more correct about what? we are not discussing history of nuclear weapons! the thread is about Pakistani stockpile compared to other nuclear states..

"The design breakthrough came in January 1951, when Edward Teller and Stanislaw Ulam invented radiation implosion—for nearly three decades known publicly only as the Teller-Ulam H-bomb secret.

The concept of radiation implosion was first tested on May 9, 1951, in the George shot of Operation Greenhouse, Eniwetok, yield 225 kilotons. The first full test was on November 1, 1952, the Mike shot of Operation Ivy, Eniwetok, yield 10.4 megatons."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_design

 

[Fawadqasim1]

Sorry, but more correct about what? we are not discussing history of nuclear weapons! the thread is about Pakistani stockpile compared to other nuclear states..

It was just a hint

 

[The SC]

It was just a hint

This wad the basic thermonuclear weapon design:



Ablation mechanism firing sequence.

1. Warhead before firing. The nested spheres at the top are the fission primary; the cylinders below are the fusion secondary device.
2. Fission primary's explosives have detonated and collapsed the primary's fissile pit.
3. The primary's fission reaction has run to completion, and the primary is now at several million degrees and radiating gamma and hard X-rays, heating up the inside of the hohlraum and the shield and secondary's tamper.
4. The primary's reaction is over and it has expanded. The surface of the pusher for the secondary is now so hot that it is also ablating or expanding away, pushing the rest of the secondary (tamper, fusion fuel, and fissile spark plug) inwards. The spark plug starts to fission. Not depicted: the radiation case is also ablating and expanding outwards (omitted for clarity of diagram).
5. The secondary's fuel has started the fusion reaction and shortly will burn up. A fireball starts to form.

Since 1990 the Oralloy thermonuclear warheads is the new design

 

[Fawadqasim1]

This wad the basic thermonuclear weapon design:



Ablation mechanism firing sequence.

1. Warhead before firing. The nested spheres at the top are the fission primary; the cylinders below are the fusion secondary device.
2. Fission primary's explosives have detonated and collapsed the primary's fissile pit.
3. The primary's fission reaction has run to completion, and the primary is now at several million degrees and radiating gamma and hard X-rays, heating up the inside of the hohlraum and the shield and secondary's tamper.
4. The primary's reaction is over and it has expanded. The surface of the pusher for the secondary is now so hot that it is also ablating or expanding away, pushing the rest of the secondary (tamper, fusion fuel, and fissile spark plug) inwards. The spark plug starts to fission. Not depicted: the radiation case is also ablating and expanding outwards (omitted for clarity of diagram).
5. The secondary's fuel has started the fusion reaction and shortly will burn up. A fireball starts to form.

Since 1990 the Oralloy thermonuclear warheads is the new design

Study these published designs with a pinch of salt the indians learned it the hard way in pokhran 2