How Pakistan could effectively cripple Indian’s air force with rocket artillery, and what is needed.

[Philip the Arab]

What is the turn radius of the Brahmos at Mach 5 60,000 ft? What is it at 500ft? Once you have that answer you will be better informed about the efficacy of S and doughnut turns. Heck the brahmos could do a Bollywood song and dance before end game - it will still get killed by the USN. I don’t know much about Pakistan ADS so I can’t comment.

PN isn't

Good, Now here is an assignment for you,

Think of yourself as some Indian planner, How would you counter such situation and make it impossible or tough ?

Hoping to get a reply, take your time

I really don't know, even Iron Dome can't deal with a concentrated threat that easily. I would try to have counter battery radars at the ready coordinated with MLRS that can fire on the target within a few minutes. This may be hard, but it isn't impossible.

Mate, the Smerch is an old system with at the most 100km range rockets, most PAF targets are not in range if launched even at the border.


What makes you think MLRS rockets wouldn't hammer a base In barrages? 150kg of fragmentation is 1/3 of a Tomahawk, and dozens hitting means it is almost certain that vital areas will be destroyed like runways.

probably take them out in preemptive strike or use drones and human intelligence for air or artillery attack.

It would be hard if defended correctly, they would be going for MLRS using IAF but have to deal with SAMs, and PAF. I suspect they would probably not be able to penetrate or would lose whole or most of strike package. This is to try to penetrate to Lahore outskirts.


Artillery could work but range is not that high. MLRS would have to aim precise, Smerch is an old Russian system without precision guidance.


The A300 uses a combination of inertial measuring unit and GPS guidance that gives the former a CEP of 30 m and the latter a CEP of 30 m when using a unitary warhead and 45 m with a "shaped-charge fragmentation cluster" warhead.

 

[ARMalik]

They have the SMERCH. An absolute hammer of a weapon to have in your arsenal. In fact, PA didn't have an answer to this system for the longest time till the introduction of A-100. They could have literally decimated PA's Armoured Formations without any threat of counter battery fire.

Without Air Superiority, SMERCH is no good as well. In fact I would say it would be a sitting duck.

 

[The Raven]

What makes you think the Indians could do the same to our airfields? Given the proliferation of cruise missile and long range stand off weapons on both sides, any opening salvo of a conflict will include such tactics. If anything, the greater strategic depth of the indians gives them an advantage.

 

[Robbie]

Stop being so overconfident. They still have superior equipment compared to us, and they have the Smerch, which is as good as they get.

with out date equipment and very dubious missiles.

That's an interesting view Notorious Eagle. I disagree though. Pakistan on average has superior forward edge of battle area (FEBA) platforms compared to India.

The Pakistan armed forces have countered Indian weapons effectively by using American or European equipment as the tip of the spear with the rest being comprised of Chinese or other equipment. In contrast, almost all Indian equipment is of Soviet origin. Pakistan's tip of the spear (usually American) is better than Indian (usually Soviet) in most areas. To paint an example, Pakistan's F-16s bring AIM 120 C5, that outrange what IAF possesses by a significant margin. This plays out in almost every area I can think of: A-100 outranges Smerch, M series howitzers outrange IA's artillery (even including the new Korean K-9), etc. Exceptions include Naval platforms as Pakistan does not prioritize the Navy.

Part of this is because Pakistan has preferred US systems which, on average, tended to be better than Soviet/Russian ones (notable exceptions in certain strategic areas). The other part has been India's broken procurement system and consistently declining defence budgets.

It is only in the last few years that India has been more open to Western armament and though modernization has started, is still piecemeal. It has so far not touched the Indian military's tip of the spear. The only exception being Rafales which are till date not in India and in any case, are too few to really constitute anything other than a token force (2 squadrons, split over 2 fronts, compared to 4 squadrons of F-16's all for one front).

The real modernization for India has started happening in the mid-end areas like naval P-8, and logistics area where C-17, C-130, and Chinooks have rather dramatically changed efficacy and capability of the IN's maritime domain awareness fleet and IAF's transport fleet. Apache's and MH-60R will start modernizing battlefield support roles in the next few years. The differences, in terms of availability and sortie rates, are significantly better than what the military has had so far. As Indian comfort with US weapon systems and training philosophy grows, so will the nature of acquisitions, moving towards FEBA platforms.

I am sure you understand that this doesn't mean Pakistan is militarily stronger than India. However, it will take at least a decade more before India's tip-of-the-spear starts changing. Till then, at least, in the context of skirmishes with limited assets at play, Pakistan will be able to bring more lethal force, more precisely, and faster than their Indian counterparts.

If you are shooting and scooting you can’t barrage attack Indian bases can you? Cruise missiles, PGM, cluster munitions are all superior options. Heck PAF Mirages successfully attacked an Indian base last year with a PGMs so the whole premise of shutting down an enemy base with rocket attacks is flawed.

Well said.

 

[The Raven]

That's an interesting view Notorious Eagle. I disagree though. India on average has inferior equipment compared to Pakistan.

The Pakistan armed forces have countered Indian weapons effectively by using American or European equipment as the tip of the spear with the rest being comprised of Chinese or other equipment. In contrast, almost all Indian equipment is of Soviet origin. Pakistan's tip of the spear (usually American) is better than Indian (usually Soviet) in most areas. To paint an example, Pakistan's F-16s bring AIM 120 C5, that outrange what IAF possesses by a significant margin. This plays out in almost every area I can think of: A-100 outranges Smerch, M series howitzers outrange IA's artillery (even including the new Korean K-9), etc. Exceptions include Naval platforms as Pakistan does not prioritize the Navy.

Part of this is because Pakistan has preferred US systems which, on average, tended to be better than Soviet/Russian ones (notable exceptions in certain strategic areas). The other part has been India's broken procurement system and consistently declining defence budgets.

It is only in the last few years that India has been more open to Western armament and though modernization has started, is still piecemeal. It has so far not touched the Indian military's tip of the spear. The only exception being Rafales which are till date not in India and in any case, are too few to really constitute anything other than a token force (2 squadrons, split over 2 fronts, compared to 4 squadrons of F-16's all for one front).

The real modernization for India has started happening in the mid-end areas like naval P-8, and logistics area where C-17, C-130, and Chinooks have rather dramatically changed efficacy and capability of the IN's maritime domain awareness fleet and IAF's transport fleet. Apache's and MH-60R will start modernizing battlefield support roles in the next few years. As Indian comfort with US weapon systems and training philosophy grows, so will the nature of acquisitions, moving towards forward edge of battle area (FEBA) platforms.

I am sure you understand that this doesn't mean Pakistan is militarily stronger than India. However, it will take at least a decade more before India's tip-of-the-spear starts changing. Till then, at least, in the context of skirmishes with limited assets at play, Pakistan will be able to bring more lethal force, more precisely, and faster than their Indian counterparts.


Well said.

So nearly 300 Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000s, Mig-29s, upgraded Mig-21s...all completely useless until the Rafales come along? The Indian "tip of the spear" as you say is unlikely to become any larger with US or Western equipment given the reluctance of the US to sell F-35s to a nation which also operates the S-400 system. Maybe a couple of more squadrons of Rafales, but that's it, otherwise there just isn't enough money for all the other programs your have such as FGFA and the numerous "Tejus" iterations.

 

[Mace]

So nearly 300 Su-30MKI, Mirage 2000s, Mig-29s, upgraded Mig-21s...all completely useless until the Rafales come along?

And yes once the Rafale comes to India, PAF’s 70 odd F16s and 200 odd JFs will be obsolete

 

[The Raven]

And yes once the Rafale comes to India, PAF’s 70 odd F16s and 200 odd JFs will be obsolete

It's you and your fellow compatriots who are pushing this line, not us. Even your Modi said this. Where was the much vaunted "Raptor of the East" on the 27? No indian fighter managed to let off a single missile against the PAF!! So yes, better wait until you guys have a couple of squadrons of Rafales.

 

[Robbie]

It's you and your fellow compatriots who are pushing this line, not us. Even your Modi said this. Where was the much vaunted "Raptor of the East" on the 27? No indian fighter managed to let off a single missile against the PAF!! So yes, better wait until you guys have a couple of squadrons of Rafales.

You are severely constrained in English comprehension skills.

 

[Mace]

It's you and your fellow compatriots who are pushing this line, not us. Even your Modi said this. Where was the much vaunted "Raptor of the East" on the 27? No indian fighter managed to let off a single missile against the PAF!! So yes, better wait until you guys have a couple of squadrons of Rafales.

Modi was making a political statement. If you don’t know the context ignore it.

I have said this before. IAF was caught with its pants down. There was unnecessary urgency shown by Indian establishment to deescalate knowing very well PAF will retaliate. IAF should not have left it’s guard down.

Despite what we witnessed on 27th, equation between current IAF and PAF has not changed. IAF has and will have the upper hand. IAF has plugged the BVR deficiencies which they should have done long time back. They allowed the BVR advantage slip.

Now with Rafale, the gap between IAF and PAF will only increase.

 

[Philip the Arab]

What makes you think the Indians could do the same to our airfields? Given the proliferation of cruise missile and long range stand off weapons on both sides, any opening salvo of a conflict will include such tactics. If anything, the greater strategic depth of the indians gives them an advantage.

They don't have anything to use except ballistic missiles, and if they do launch them expect a nuclear war if interpreted wrong.

And yes once the Rafale comes to India, PAF’s 70 odd F16s and 200 odd JFs will be obsolete

Nope, this tactic I am proposing would kill your whole Western air command including Rafales and PAF would have virtual air superiority even if you use fighters from the other commands with aerial refueling the sortie rate would be low.

Well said.

Nope, all 8 rockets can be launched in 50 seconds.
4 vehicles spread out into groups each targeting one airbase would be quite hard to kill.

 

[notorious_eagle]

And yes once the Rafale comes to India, PAF’s 70 odd F16s and 200 odd JFs will be obsolete

If i substituted 'SU30MKI' with 'Rafale', that's exactly what i used to hear 10 years ago. SU30MKI, the Raptor of Asia, 12 SU30MKI are enough to decimate the F16 fleet of PAF and the MIG21 Bisons would finish the job. Any new platform that India acquires automatically becomes the most superior weapon. I remember Indian members here celebrating how the SU30MKI decimated the Rafales and EuroFighters in exercises, but apparently now it is going to be the saving grace of the IAF. I must say, you guys are doing a horrible job by placing enormous pressure on your Armed Forces to deliver impossible results.

Now with Rafale, the gap between IAF and PAF will only increase.

But i thought the SU30MKI was superior to the Rafales, that's why the SU30MKI bossed them.

 

[Mace]

They don't have anything to use except ballistic missiles, and if they do launch them expect a nuclear war if interpreted wrong.


Nope, this tactic I am proposing would kill your whole Western air command including Rafales and PAF would have virtual air superiority even if you use fighters from the other commands with aerial refueling the sortie rate would be low.


Nope, all 8 rockets can be launched in 50 seconds.

You are making too many simplistic assumptions. Pak can achieve this only if does another Kargil - talk peace by politicians and quietly deploy its assets against India.

If i substituted 'SU30MKI' with 'Rafale', that's exactly what i used to hear 10 years ago. SU30MKI, the Raptor of Asia, 12 SU30MKI are enough to decimate the F16 fleet of PAF and the MIG21 Bisons would finish the job. Any new platform that India acquires automatically becomes the most superior weapon. I remember Indian members here celebrating how the SU30MKI decimated the Rafales and EuroFighters in exercises, but apparently now it is going to be the saving grace of the IAF. I must say, you guys are doing a horrible job by placing enormous pressure on your Armed Forces to deliver impossible results.



But i thought the SU30MKI was superior to the Rafales, that's why the SU30MKI bossed them.

The first one was sarcasm.

SU30s will dominate the air war if it happens today without Rafales.

Rafale is only adding capabilities to IAF.

 

[notorious_eagle]

The Pakistan armed forces have countered Indian weapons effectively by using American or European equipment as the tip of the spear with the rest being comprised of Chinese or other equipment. In contrast, almost all Indian equipment is of Soviet origin. Pakistan's tip of the spear (usually American) is better than Indian (usually Soviet) in most areas. To paint an example, Pakistan's F-16s bring AIM 120 C5, that outrange what IAF possesses by a significant margin. This plays out in almost every area I can think of: A-100 outranges Smerch, M series howitzers outrange IA's artillery (even including the new Korean K-9), etc. Exceptions include Naval platforms as Pakistan does not prioritize the Navy.

I think you're being a bit harsh on the Indian Armed Forces here. While i do agree that PA's artillery is certainly superior to that of the IA, Indian Armed Forces have largely done a good job in modernizing in the last 20 years. IA's Armour/Infantry pack quite a serious punch and if it weren't for the geography across LOC and Punjab, IA's Armour would be the favorite against PA's Armour.
R77 is by no means an inferior missile as it is being portrayed. It was not the AMRAAM's that won the day but it was the entire collective force and aggressive tactics that resulted in PAF's superior performance. This was something that was lacking on the IAF side.

It is only in the last few years that India has been more open to Western armament and though modernization has started, is still piecemeal. It has so far not touched the Indian military's tip of the spear. The only exception being Rafales which are till date not in India and in any case, are too few to really constitute anything other than a token force (2 squadrons, split over 2 fronts, compared to 4 squadrons of F-16's all for one front).

If you personally ask me, IAF does not need the Rafale's to dominate against the PAF. IAF already has the existing resources to win the day. The only thing lacking are the tactics and the employment of those assets in a cohesive manner. It was extremely disappointing to see how IAF wasn't able to pick up PAF's incoming strike package when they were on a high level of alert. Swordfish and Phalcons are extremely potent platforms and can look deep inside Pakistan.

The real modernization for India has started happening in the mid-end areas like naval P-8, and logistics area where C-17, C-130, and Chinooks have rather dramatically changed efficacy and capability of the IN's maritime domain awareness fleet and IAF's transport fleet. Apache's and MH-60R will start modernizing battlefield support roles in the next few years. The differences, in terms of availability and sortie rates, are significantly better than what the military has had so far. As Indian comfort with US weapon systems and training philosophy grows, so will the nature of acquisitions, moving towards FEBA platforms.

No doubt, as i have said above, India has made very impressive progress in the past 2 decades.

I am sure you understand that this doesn't mean Pakistan is militarily stronger than India. However, it will take at least a decade more before India's tip-of-the-spear starts changing. Till then, at least, in the context of skirmishes with limited assets at play, Pakistan will be able to bring more lethal force, more precisely, and faster than their Indian counterparts.

That is something to be seen as to what the balance of power will look like in a decade. But your analysis discounts a major factor in this scenario and that is China. China's military continues to make progress at a break neck speed, and by default Pakistan would have access to their top tech. Russia's military budget is small, Europe is declining, which means in a decade the top two most dominant military powers will be the US and China. It is far cheaper for China to subsidize Pakistan and force the bulk of the Indian Armed Forces to concentrate on Pakistan front.

 

[Philip the Arab]

You are making too many simplistic assumptions. Pak can achieve this only if does another Kargil - talk peace by politicians and quietly deploy its assets against India.

Nope, say India tries Balakot like strike and Pakistan sees it necessary to prevent future attacks. You would be set back trillions of dollars, and with no real way to counter it except limited amount of LACM Brahmos in Indian inventory. If you launch a ballistic missile like Prithvi nuclear war is likely.

 

[crankthatskunk]

Modi was making a political statement. If you don’t know the context ignore it.

I have said this before. IAF was caught with its pants down. There was unnecessary urgency shown by Indian establishment to deescalate knowing very well PAF will retaliate. IAF should not have left it’s guard down.

Despite what we witnessed on 27th, equation between current IAF and PAF has not changed. IAF has and will have the upper hand. IAF has plugged the BVR deficiencies which they should have done long time back. They allowed the BVR advantage slip.

Now with Rafale, the gap between IAF and PAF will only increase.

Big statements made without much substance and proofs to back up the statements.

Are you trying to say that within one day the IAF presumed that Pakistan is not going to respond to their venture on 26th Feb 19 and deescalated!!

IAF will have the upper hand!! OK let's analyse, the IAF supposed superiority was based on their SU 30s, Mirage 2000s, Mig 29 and upgraded Mig 21, in that order. Am I right, I didn't missed any superior assets!!

Were these jets not involved on 26th and 27th Feb 19!!
Did they maintained any superiority on both occasions!!

On 26th they left the theatre quickly by off loading their loads in a hurry.
On 27th 2 jets down, helicopter shot down by the Indians themselves while on search and rescue mission.

The Indians shown the fragment of BVR AMRAM but no news on its intended target.
The Indians decorated their pilots for avoiding BVR AMRAM.

The above facts are not disputed, with some exceptions.

Indians denying the kill of SU 30. But with the same token their own channel showing the news that SU 30 of IAF had been shoot down by PAF. I am sure you can find that clip on the net.

Indians claiming that they shot down F 16. This claim is not supported by any international commentator. PAF has shown the evidence that all 4 BVRs on Abhi's jet were intact. Pakistan has produce the evidence to independent commentator Alan Warnes, who not only accepted but also shown in the video to point to the intact, unused BVR, not fired, which has supposedly shot down the F16.

Similarly story of killing 300 men in the air strike also died down, deservedly like a fake rumour should.

I failed to see that "Superiority" in practice. Please enlighten us all.