How long can Pak sustain a war?

[arp2041]

In the last three months, according to various Indian intelligence estimates, the Pakistani army has shifted three more units from the border with India to the tribal areas of Waziristan or FATA. This brings to 100 the total number of units now deployed in fighting Taliban insurgents.

To get a better sense of the size of these units, here's a breakup: Four division headquarters (a division is around 10,000 men) and 22 Brigade headquarters (a brigade is around 2,500 men). That brings the figure to 95,000 men of a total army of 700,000. It would be safe to assume the rest remain focussed on India. So the pitch by some quarters about the "changing Pakistani mindset" regarding India is to put it mildly misplaced.

How long could Pakistan fight a war (other than the one in Waziristan)? From published reports, it seems the Pak army had geared itself for a conflict ranging from 30 to 45 days. But reports in 2007 indicated that the top brass had revised those figures downward to 25 days. Meaning, it had sufficient stocks of arms, ammunition, food and fuel to last 25 days. This translated into:

INFANTRY:

-- Small arms/ammo = 90 days stocks

-- Mortar shells+anti-tank = 30 days stocks

-- Anti-Tank Guided Munitions = 15 days stocks

ARTILLERY (shells) +AIR DEFENCE (surface to air missiles) +AVIATION (bombs/ammo) = 30 days stocks

But Pakistan's ability to fight a war ultimately depends on its economy. It's been evident for many years that the Pakistani economy has been barrelling down the tube. Infusions of US aid have only given the illusion of growth. The continuance of that aid now looks doubtful given the downward graph in ties with Washington. Add to that a debilitating internal conflict, administrative collapse and political discord.

Given that, 25 days seems ambitious. The shrinking economy may give Pakistan only a few days of war fighting capability.

IBNLive : Surya Gangadharan's Blog : How long can Pak sustain a war?

 

[mjnaushad]

We are sustaining a war from last 10 years.......


Plus i would like to know from where did this info came from ??? His assumption or he have any documented proof....Please post those reports of 2007 which suggest the days count above.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

Not sure about Taliban Pak war. But a war betwn Pak and India is off for now.

 

[iajj]

fighting for the welfare of one's own nation, a people can exert relentless effort for centuries; fighting for an anglo-american cause, one second of time is one second too long.

 

[CorporateAffairs]

We are sustaining a war from last 10 years.......

Guess it fighting insurgents bro and not real war.

If that is the case, then India can claim fighting war for past 50 years

 

[Patriot]

The era of conventional war between India and Pakistan is over due to introduction of Nuclear Weapons.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

The era of conventional war between India and Pakistan is over due to introduction of Nuclear Weapons.

That theory was debunked by your own Generals in Kargil.

 

[arp2041]

We are sustaining a war from last 10 years.......


Plus i would like to know from where did this info came from ??? His assumption or he have any documented proof....

He is talking about a full scale warfare, not war against insurgent group which India is fighting for more than two decades now. I will highly agree with this article because a full scale warfare is a one which even Indian economy cannot sustain for more than a month. I would like you to read these two articles:

The Hindu : The cost of war

THE PRICE OF WAR

According to these, It cost India 10k crore in a limited conflict scenario of Kargil which extended for nearly 2 months (that was in 1999) can you imagine the cost of full scale conflict in today's highly inflated scenario?

 

[mjnaushad]

Guess it fighting insurgents bro and not real war.

If that is the case, then India can claim fighting war for past 50 years

What Indian insurgents have are AK47s

What Pakistani taliban have are Ak47, M16s, Dragnoves, Mortars, Recoilless rifles, AA guns, AT guns, Rockets, Humvees (Stolen), Jeeps, And support of many rich rival intelligence agencies.

 

[SQ8]

the final conclusion is absolutely incorrect.. since those reserves will last beyond a "few days"..
But the reduction in war fighting capacity is not wrong.
It also depends on the threat as Pakistan is traditionally bolstered itself along the east..there it holds the infrastructure to sustain an onslaught for at least a week if not more.
for eg.. most independent observers put the PAF with operational capability for around 17 to 25 days until its losses are too great to maintain any significant presence.
The PA is expected to take a battering for over 15 days before its key centre's are overrun(provided it does not take the nuclear option) and the PN is not expected to last beyond a week(except one or two subs).

However, if you replace the threat with say a certain ally then the war capacity shrinks considerably. With that the PAF is not expected to provide any resistance beyond a week and the PN for a few days. Still, the PA is expected to hold out longer due to such an enemy's lack of infrastructure to roll troops on the ground and hold sections without an amphibious operation.
Moreover, for both scenario's.. guerilla operations are not ruled out and it is expected that any final surrender will not come till months after the end of major combat operations.

What is unlikely is that India and our "ally" attack in cohesion since it is still accepted that India has an independent foreign policy and will not be coaxed into playing "toady" to any external power nor will it accept "Help" in responding to any future terror attack.

Again, this assessment was of a war fighting capability where Pakistan is engaged alone.. it would change if Pakistan's closest ally in the north was engaged first and Pakistan respon

 

[mjnaushad]

He is talking about a full scale warfare, not war against insurgent group which India is fighting for more than two decades now. I will highly agree with this article because a full scale warfare is a one which even Indian economy cannot sustain for more than a month. I would like you to read these two articles:

The Hindu : The cost of war

THE PRICE OF WAR

According to these, It cost India 10k crore in a limited conflict scenario of Kargil which extended for nearly 2 months (that was in 1999) can you imagine the cost of full scale conflict in today's highly inflated scenario?

The reports which suggest we have 15 days AT missile ammunition ....... Plzzzzzz

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

What Indian insurgents have are AK47s

What Pakistani taliban have are Ak47, M16s, Dragnoves, Mortars, Recoilless rifles, AA guns, AT guns, Rockets, Humvees (Stolen), Jeeps, And support of many rich rival intelligence agencies.

lol you have literally no idea about what the terrorists are armed with in India, which in fact is rather funny since many of them are coming from your very country. lol

The only thing that they do not have are video cameras and blueprints of our jails. lol

 

[explorer9]

Nukes have changed the the scenario of sustainability of Pakistan especially in Indian context..

 

[Icarus]

lol you have literally no idea about what the terrorists are armed with in India, which in fact is rather funny since many of them are coming from your very country. lol

The only thing that they do not have are video cameras and blueprints of our jails. lol

Indeed, armed with teleportation devices, so that if their cover is blown, they can teleport back to Pakistan, case in point, the recent Would-be Mumbai Attacker 2.0.

India has never been able to provide any proof of these so called border jumpers, because there are no border jumpers. It's simply the fact:
That if you kill a local= Inquiry, Possibly discharge.
Call that man a border jumper(No proof required, the name suffices)= Citation for bravery, possibly a medal.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Indeed, armed with teleportation devices, so that if their cover is blown, they can teleport back to Pakistan, case in point, the recent Would-be Mumbai Attacker 2.0.

India has never been able to provide any proof of these so called border jumpers, because there are no border jumpers. It's simply the fact:
That if you kill a local= Inquiry, Possibly discharge.
Call that man a border jumper(No proof required, the name suffices)= Citation for bravery, possibly a medal.

We will never be able to.

We can wake up somebody who's asleep. We cannot wake up somebody who's pretending to be asleep.