How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits?

[RiazHaq]

How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits?

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after yea...

www.southasiainvestor.com

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after year. Other nations among the top 5 with the biggest US dollar reserves are China ($3.4 trillion), Japan ($1.4 trillion) , Switzerland ($1.1 trillion) and Russia ($623 billion). They have all accomplished this feat by running large trade surpluses for many years.

History of India's Trade Deficits in billions of US dollars. Source: Trading Economics

So how did India manage to build over $600 billion in US dollar reserves? The top contributor to India's reserves is debt which accounts for 48%. Portfolio equity investments are known as “hot” money or speculative money flows accounted for 23% of India's forex reserves, according to an analysis published by The Hindu BusinessLine.

While India has accumulated the largest forex reserves in its history, its debt to GDP ratio is also nearing an all-time record of 90%, the highest in the South Asia region. India's debt has risen by 17% of its GDP in the last two years, the most of any emerging economy. By contrast, Pakistan's debt to GDP ratio has increased by a mere 1.6% to 87.2% from 2019 to 2020.

India's Rising Debt. Source: Business Standard

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the Indian government debt, including that of the center and the states, to rise to a record 90.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) during 2021-22 against 89.6% in the previous year. By contrast, the percentage of Pakistan's public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) including debt from the International Monetary Fund, and external and domestic debt has fallen from 87.6% in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019-20 to 83.5% in FY 2020-21.

While large reserves are a source of comfort in terms of balance of payments and currency stability, it also has significant downsides. The biggest risk is the interest rates on the debt (accounting for 48% of India's US$ reserves) which depend heavily on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Should the Fed decide to raise interest rates to tighten money supply amid inflation concerns, the cost of servicing the US dollar denominated debt will rise.

The second big worry is that the "hot money" accounting for 23% of India's US$ reserves could suddenly decide to leave India for better returns elsewhere. This happened in the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98. It began in Thailand and then quickly spread to neighboring economies. Initially, it was a currency crisis when Bangkok unpegged the Thai baht from the U.S. dollar that set off a series of currency devaluations and massive flights of capital.

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How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits?

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after yea...

www.southasiainvestor.com

 

[Pandora]

Pakistans latest lastest Debt to GDP figures are 74% of GDP. Our domestic debt has decreased as percentage of GDP mainly bcz govt hasnt been borrowing from statebank bcz of IMF restrictions on with-drawl.

 

[SaadH]

remittances and taxation makes up the difference...

 

[RiazHaq]

#India's monthly #trade deficit hit record high of $23.27 billion in November 2021. Going by the current trend, India's trade deficit for the third quarter will hit $65 billion. https://www.cnbctv18.com/economy/ex...t-was-at-record-high-in-november-11673872.htm

Triggering concern among macroeconomics experts, India's trade deficit was calculated at $23.27 billion for the month of November. This is the highest India's trade deficit has ever reached. The value of imports has remained above $50 billion for three consecutive months now. Going by the current trend, India's trade deficit for the third quarter will hit $65 billion.

As per official data, the imports have gone up by 57 percent (year-on-year) to $53.15 billion. The value of imports has remained above $50 billion for three consecutive months now. The average value of imports used to be in the $40 billion range.
Why the widening trade gap?
The trade deficit of a country increases when the value of its exports fall below the value of its imports. India’s trade deficit has been increasing on the back of its increasingly higher imports, while exports have been lower than expected as well. Imports have increased by 57 percent, year-over-year.
The value of imports has been increasing not due to increased volumes but increased commodity prices, mainly fuel. India, as a net importer of fuel, has been hit hard by the high prices of crude and coal as nations have been struggling to keep abreast of the power crises across the world.

The increase of 132 percent in crude prices has hit Indian imports hard. The rise in prices of other commodities like chemicals, gold, electronics and machinery has also drastically increased India’s import ledger.
At the same time, the tally of exports has also been the lowest since February 2021, even though petroleum products, engineering goods, chemicals and others have performed well.
Why is it bad?
The concerns are well-placed as this is the third consecutive month when India's trade deficit -- the difference between the value of imports and that of exports -- was upwards of $20 billion. A higher trade deficit may weaken the Indian rupee against the dollar.
While a trade deficit is not inherently bad or good, it can have different effects, depending on the economy in context. In India’s context, the simplest cost will be increasingly higher costs of imported goods for consumers while domestic workers also earn less due to a weakened rupee. Depreciation of the rupee can be welcome in the global economic context, but not over the longer term.
Also read: Will RBI use ‘clutch’ and ‘accelerator’ in its upcoming monetary policy?
Continuing trade deficits also eat into the country’s balance of payments (BoP). India’s balance of payments surplus stood at $80 billion.
What lies ahead
Going by the current trend, India's trade deficit for the third quarter will hit the $65-billion mark. Meanwhile, India's exports fell below $30 billion in November. The last time this happened was in February this year. However,oil exports of petroleum products, chemicals, cotton textiles, and electronics have gone up.

 

[Beast]

By refusing to pay your debt. Of cos, you can slowly build up your reserve.

 

[RiazHaq]

#Indian rupee closes near 18 month-low, ends at 75.52 to #US$ amid #India's soaring #trade deficits. #INR may fall to new record lows as US Federal Reserve withdraws its easy money policy & tightens interest rates. "Hot money" capital flight likely https://www.business-standard.com/a...llar-121120901197_1.html#.YbOcgkTxnZY.twitter

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469375632639287302

The Indian rupee closed at a nearly 18-month low on Thursday, a day after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained a status quo on policy rates but tightened excess liquidity from the banking system.

The partially convertible currency closed at 75.52 a dollar, the lowest since July 1, 2020, when it had touched 75.59. The rupee had closed at 75.45 a dollar on Wednesday, the policy day.


According to currency experts, pressure on the rupee would continue; some even said the domestic currency may cross its record low levels as the US Federal Reserve withdraws its easy money policy and move towards tightening of rates.


The rupee touched 76.92 a dollar in the intraday trade on April 22 last year.

“Within six to seven months, the rupee can be expected to move towards 78-plus level as the Fed becomes hawkish to rein in inflation, triggering strengthening of the dollar," said Samir Lodha, managing director of QuantArt.

“The record trade deficit will be an additional sore point for the rupee, while the RBI will ensure there's no currency crisis,” Lodha said.

The dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against major currencies, continued to strengthen and rose 0.18 per cent to 96.067.

On an intraday basis, the rupee fell 0.086 per cent even as many Asian peers rose against the dollar. Year to date, the rupee has fallen 3.244 per cent against the dollar. In a recent report, economic research firm QuantEco said that the rupee is likely to lose as it had outperformed its trading partners in the recent past.

The relative outperformance of the rupee in the recent past against other currencies in the region could “increase its overvaluation on a real effective exchange rate (REER) basis to 9.4-9.9 per cent in Nov-21, the strongest level in nearly 4-years,” QuantEco wrote in a report.

“Seen from a historical context, the current negative correlation between the dollar index and USDINR is getting ripe for a reversal. This holds from a REER perspective as well, where historical reversals in overvaluation have got triggered in the 8-12 per cent range,” QuantEco said.

Foreign investors have been net sellers of Indian equities in all trading sessions since November 18, withdrawing almost $5 billion during this period, said Sriram Iyer, senior research analyst at Reliance Securities.

Oil prices have risen for the sixth straight day as the Omicron mutation failed to suppress demand.

“Technically, the USDINR Spot pair immediate hurdle now is at 75.67 levels and a break above will push the pair to 75.83 and ultimately to 76.00 levels," Iyer said, adding, supports are at 75.30 and 75.22 levels.

 

[RiazHaq]

Highest #Debt Among Peers Keeps #India Outlook Negative at Fitch. India’s government debt to #GDP ratio was 89.6% in last FY. Higher debt levels may crowd out financing for private sector. #economy #BJP #COVID https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-peers-keeps-india-outlook-negative-at-fitch

https://twitter.com/x/status/1469424437766209537

Highest Debt Among Peers Keeps India Outlook Negative at Fitch
By Rahul Satija +Sign Up
November 16, 2021, 5:24 PM PST
India’s government debt to GDP ratio was 89.6% in last FY
Higher debt levels may crowd out financing for private sector

Highest Debt Among Peers Keeps India Outlook Negative at Fitch

Fitch Ratings retained its negative outlook on India’s sovereign rating that’s barely above junk grade, reflecting concern the country will find it challenging to cut its high public debt.

www.bloomberg.com

Fitch Ratings retained its negative outlook on India’s sovereign rating that’s barely above junk grade, reflecting concern the country will find it challenging to cut its high public debt.

That’s in contrast with Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings, which both have a stable outlook on India’s sovereign score. Fitch highlighted that the country’s general government debt at 89.6% of gross domestic product in the financial year ended March 31 is the highest of similar rated emerging-market sovereigns, in a note published late Tuesday.

 

[letsrock]

But how is india getting so much debt or investment despite running itself so badly.

 

[doorstar]

But how is india getting so much debt or investment despite running itself so badly.

if it was being run competently then it would be a peer/equal of China
it is run badly as a whole but there are still quite few areas that are quite lucrative for the investor.

though China is miles better. in 2020 india received $57 billion, while China attracted $163 billion even though there is a big campaign being run to undermine china and talk up india.
the total value of foreign capital directly invested in india is still significantly lower than China's despite all the US assistance and bias in favor of india.
.
figures taken from fortune.com

 

[RiazHaq]

#India’s current account deficit grows as #trade gap widens in Q3. Net foreign portfolio #investment fell to $3.9 billion from $7 billion a year ago; net #FDI inflows at $9.5 billion, down from $24.4 billion a year ago.#Modi #BJP #Hindutva #Islamophobia

India’s Current Account Slips Back to Deficit on Wider Trade Gap

India’s current-account balance slipped back into a deficit last quarter as the nation’s trade gap widened.

www.bloomberg.com

India’s current-account balance slipped back into a deficit last quarter as the nation’s trade gap widened.

The current account, the broadest measure of the country’s overseas trade and services flows, was in a deficit of $9.6 billion, or 1.3% of gross domestic product, in the three months ended September, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement on Friday. The median in a Bloomberg survey of 12 economists was for a deficit of $10.9 billion.

The account was in a surplus of $6.6 billion in the April to June period, and also a surplus of $15.3 billion, or 2.4% of GDP, in the comparable year-ago period.

Digging Deeper
The latest numbers come on the back of a surge in global crude oil prices which inflated India’s import bill; the RBI cited widening of trade deficit to $44.4 billion from $30.7 billion in the preceding quarter and an increase in net outgo of investment income for the current-account gap
Income from services decreased sequentially, but increased on a year-on-year basis on robust performance of computer and business services, the central bank added
Friday’s data, which covers a period when economic activity in India was picking up after a second wave of Covid-19 infections, saw private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, rise 3.7% from a year ago to $21.1 billion
Net foreign portfolio investment was $3.9 billion as compared with $7 billion a year ago; net foreign direct investment inflows amounted to $9.5 billion, lower than $24.4 billion a year ago

 

[Surya 1]

How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits?

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after yea...

www.southasiainvestor.com

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after year. Other nations among the top 5 with the biggest US dollar reserves are China ($3.4 trillion), Japan ($1.4 trillion) , Switzerland ($1.1 trillion) and Russia ($623 billion). They have all accomplished this feat by running large trade surpluses for many years.

​

History of India's Trade Deficits in billions of US dollars. Source: Trading Economics

So how did India manage to build over $600 billion in US dollar reserves? The top contributor to India's reserves is debt which accounts for 48%. Portfolio equity investments are known as “hot” money or speculative money flows accounted for 23% of India's forex reserves, according to an analysis published by The Hindu BusinessLine.

While India has accumulated the largest forex reserves in its history, its debt to GDP ratio is also nearing an all-time record of 90%, the highest in the South Asia region. India's debt has risen by 17% of its GDP in the last two years, the most of any emerging economy. By contrast, Pakistan's debt to GDP ratio has increased by a mere 1.6% to 87.2% from 2019 to 2020.

​

India's Rising Debt. Source: Business Standard

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the Indian government debt, including that of the center and the states, to rise to a record 90.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) during 2021-22 against 89.6% in the previous year. By contrast, the percentage of Pakistan's public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) including debt from the International Monetary Fund, and external and domestic debt has fallen from 87.6% in Fiscal Year (FY) 2019-20 to 83.5% in FY 2020-21.

While large reserves are a source of comfort in terms of balance of payments and currency stability, it also has significant downsides. The biggest risk is the interest rates on the debt (accounting for 48% of India's US$ reserves) which depend heavily on the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Should the Fed decide to raise interest rates to tighten money supply amid inflation concerns, the cost of servicing the US dollar denominated debt will rise.

The second big worry is that the "hot money" accounting for 23% of India's US$ reserves could suddenly decide to leave India for better returns elsewhere. This happened in the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98. It began in Thailand and then quickly spread to neighboring economies. Initially, it was a currency crisis when Bangkok unpegged the Thai baht from the U.S. dollar that set off a series of currency devaluations and massive flights of capital.

Related Links:


Haq's Musings

South Asia Investor Review

Misery Index for India, Pakistan
Naya Pakistan Housing Program
Food in Pakistan 2nd Cheapest in the World

Western Money Keeps Indian Economy Afloat
Pakistan to Become World's 6th Largest Cement Producer by 2030
Pakistan's 2012 GDP Estimated at $401 Billion

Pakistan's Computer Services Exports Jump 26% Amid COVID19 Lockdown

Coronavirus, Lives and Livelihoods in Pakistan

Vast Majority of Pakistanis Support Imran Khan's Handling of Covid19 Crisis

Pakistani-American Woman Featured in Netflix Documentary "Pandemic"

Incomes of Poorest Pakistanis Growing Faster Than Their Richest Counterparts

Can Pakistan Effectively Respond to Coronavirus Outbreak?

How Grim is Pakistan's Social Sector Progress?

Pakistan Fares Marginally Better Than India On Disease Burdens

Trump Picks Muslim-American to Lead Vaccine Effort

Democracy vs Dictatorship in Pakistan

Pakistan Child Health Indicators

Pakistan's Balance of Payments Crisis

Panama Leaks in Pakistan

Conspiracy Theories About Pakistan Elections"

PTI Triumphs Over Corrupt Dynastic Political Parties

Strikingly Similar Narratives of Donald Trump and Nawaz Sharif

Nawaz Sharif's Report Card

Riaz Haq's Youtube Channel

PakAlumni Social Network

How Has India Built Large Forex Reserves Despite Perennial Trade Deficits?

India's forex reserves of nearly $640 billion are the 4th largest in the world despite the fact that it runs trade deficits year after yea...

www.southasiainvestor.com

Because of highest remittance by Indian diaspora which was 87 bn USD last year.

 

[Tshering22]

Because of highest remittance by Indian diaspora which was 87 bn USD last year.

It is a nice cushion but need to make sure that our economy is ready for further diversification. Many industries are still under public sector/state monopolistic controls; these companies need not be privatized but competition needs to be introduced in them.

We cannot have a situation in the long term where our PSUs just sit on their advantage of monopoly and do nothing. A start can be if the government starts slicing Maharatna and Miniratna companies into 3-5 entities each. It will be stiffly opposed, but it has to be done.

 

[RiazHaq]

#India to borrow $200.7 billion to finance #Budget2022 #deficit.“India government bonds are facing a double whammy,” said Harish Agarwal a trader in #Mumbai. “Without any support, the yields (#interestrates) are set to jump to 6.95% to 7% in coming days.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bonds-tumble-india-record-government-080144551.html

India’s benchmark bond yields surged to the highest in two and a half years after the government unveiled plans to issue record amount of bonds in the next financial year.

The selloff was exacerbated as the annual budget announcement lacked widely expected measures to facilitate inclusion of the nation’s debt into global bond indexes. Elevated bond sales will worsen debt supply worries in a year when the Reserve Bank of India is expected to wind back on its monetary stimulus.

“India government bonds are facing a double whammy,” said Harish Agarwal a bond trader at FirstRand Bank in Mumbai. “Without any support, the yields are set to jump to 6.95% to 7% in the coming days.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose as much as 21 basis points to 6.89%, the highest since July 2019. The rupee fell 0.2% to 74.74 per dollar.

The government’s gross borrowing is estimated at about 15 trillion rupees ($200.7 billion) in the fiscal year starting April, according to the budget documents, much higher than 13 trillion rupees forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The target for the current year is 12.06 trillion rupees. Net borrowing, excluding maturities for next year, is estimated at 11.2 trillion rupees.

The administration also plans to issue sovereign green bonds for the first time as part its market borrowing in 2022-23, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in her budget speech on Tuesday. The proceeds will be deployed in public sector projects which will help in reducing the carbon intensity of the economy, she said.

Bond yields have climbed more than 40 basis points in 2022 as the RBI ramps up its liquidity withdrawal in an effort to gradually normalize policy and amid rising global yields. The central bank has also stopped its bond purchases and banks, the biggest buyers are already overstocked, resulting in a demand-supply imbalance.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

But how is india getting so much debt or investment despite running itself so badly.

It is a Debt trap laid by the Western nations to ensure India always remains a lackey of the West. Modi has taken India into this trap as Modi is a lackey of the West.

 

[Andhadhun]