How France and Saudi Arabia are arming Lebanon

[Bubblegum Crisis]

@ al-Hasani, @ Arabian Legend, @ BLACKEAGLE


Need help ? ^^

Link : Google translate

Comment la France et l'Arabie saoudite vont armer le Liban

Par LEXPRESS, publié le 29/12/2013 à 20:04

Le Liban, financé à hauteur de trois milliards de dollars par l'Arabie saoudite, va acheter des armes à la France. Le président Hollande a donné son accord lors d'un déplacement à Ryad.



Le roi Abdallah d'Arabie saoudite a souligné lors d'un entretien dimanche avec François Hollande la "convergence" des positions des deux pays sur la Syrie, l'Iran et les autres crises régionales.

La France va fournir des armes au Liban, financées par l'Arabie Saoudite. "Il s'agit de l'aide la plus importante dans l'histoire du Liban et de l'armée libanaise", a précisé dimanche le président libanais. Au cours de sa visite en Arabie Saoudite, le président François Hollandes'est en effet engagé à Ryad à "satisfaire" les demandes d'armement de l'armée libanaise, pour soutenir le président libanais, Michel Sleimane.

Ryad s'est engagé à octroyer trois milliards de dollars à l'armée libanaise afin que celle-ci puisse se procurer des armes françaises. L'armée du pays du Cèdre est en effet faiblement équipée en armement modernes, mais a reçu au cours des dernières années des aides de la France et des Etats-Unis, mais jamais en armes lourdes. Cette annonce intervient alors que vendredi un attentat a coûté la vie à 7 personnes, en plein coeur de Beyrouth.


"S'il y a des demandes nous les satisferons"

"J'ai des relations avec le président Sleimane (...) et s'il y a des demandes qui nous sont adressées, nous les satisferons", a déclaré François Hollande lors d'une conférence de presse après son entretien avec le roi Abdallah d'Arabie saoudite.

"Les armes seront achetées de l'Etat français dans les plus brefs délais vu les relations historiques qui le lient au Liban et à l'étroite coopération militaire entre les deux pays", a indiqué de son côté le président Sleimane.

Cette annonce n'est pas anodine et pourrait être décisive pour la stabilité de la région. L'Arabie saoudite, un royaume sunnite, soutient en effet la coalition libanaise hostile au régime syrien et au Hezbollah, soutenu par l'Iran. Elle est un virulent critique du parti chiite. Ce parti est le seul mouvement libanais armé, et ses détracteurs l'accusent d'imposer sa volonté à travers son arsenal militaire.

Lebanese Ground Forces

By 2008 Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Elias Murr and Lebanese Army Commander General Michel Sleiman had developed a vision for transformation of the Lebanese Army to a more Special Operations-capable force equipped with a Close Air Support capability such as attack helicopters. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had faced difficulties during the Nahr Al Bared (NAB) campaign in the summer of 2007. The LAF lost a total of 176 service members as a result of the fighting. (At the end of NAB, the LAF had 168 KIA. Since that time, and additional six soldiers have died of their wounds. The two Red Cross workers who were killed at NAB are now counted in LAF casualties.) The LAF had a hard time because of the narrow streets in the camp and the lack of equipment and ammunition for the LAF, and the LAF force structure and training did not meet national requirements.

The primary purpose of this transformed army would be to address terrorist threats inside Lebanon. Syria is still assisting the terrorists that are present in all thirteen of the Palestinian camps. Other Arab nations are using the camps in Lebanon as a dumping ground for their "dirty people."

At the strategic level, Murr said it was apparent that the army needed to shift its training and equipping focus to support more counter-terrorism operations. Murr said, "we don't need this heavy army that was trained and equipped by the U.S. in 1983. Things have changed since 9/11 and we need to rely more on special forces and fewer heavy brigades. We need light and medium weapons and attack helicopters to back up the grond troops." Murr surmised that he needed 10-15,000 Special Forces troops organized in 10-15 Special Forces regiments supported by 20-25,000 conventional troops. He thought that the army's current end strength of 60,000 was too large for the missions assigned. Murr wanted to only retain the five heavy brigades and place them on the borders. The remaining six brigades, and the five intervention regiments, would be disbanded and those personnel billets would be used as billpayers for the new SF Regiments.

The intent was to place all of these special forces under a single command structure that will be known as the Lebanese Special Operations Command (LSOC). The units that will comprise this command are the Marine Commando Regiment, the Ranger Regiment, the Air Assault Regiment and the Mountain Battalion that was being trained and equipped by the French.

Christians will not enlist to be regular infantrymen who are deployed in the south and on the borders as this places them too far away from their families who predominantly live near Beirut. More importantly, Lebanese law requires that the Army be 50% Christian and 50% Muslim. There is much room for the Christian population in the Army to grow. During a recent recruiting drive, there was a call for 5,000 troops; 50,000 men appeared for review. Of these 50,000, 45,000 were only interested in SF duty. There were over 8,600 Christians from Mount Lebanon, a Christian area, who showed up to enlist in Special Forces.

Recruitment efforts over the two years 2006-2008 netted 20,000 new troops for the Army at the same time that many draftees had been leaving the army. When this process began, the Shia accounted for 58% of the enlisted force; now they comprise 25% of the enlisted ranks. At the same time, the Army was able to bring the Christians to 25% and the Sunni/Druze component to 50% of the enlisted ranks. The Shia no longer "pose a threat" to the LAF, even if Nasrallah were to call on them to leave the army [as happened in 1984].

The Sunni troops in the Army are very loyal. Most of the Sunni troops in the Army come from the economically depressed region of Akkar in northern Lebanon. Every one that joins the Army from the north usually has an extensive network of family members who are also in the Army. As for the Shia, they come to the Army for a salary and to eat. Christians come with a sense of community service; this is why the elites want to serve in Special Forces. You won't hear this from the Army, but it is their reality.


GlobalSecurity.org

BALANCE OF MILITARY POWER (2006)

Troop strength

- Israel : 168,000 (125,000 army, 35,000 air force, 8,000 navy), 408,000 reservists

- Lebanon : 72,100 (1,100 in the air force, 1,000 in the navy)

- Hezbollah : 600-1,000 fighters, 3,000-5,000 available, estimated 10,000 reservists


Tanks

- Israel : 3,630

- Lebanon : 310 (mostly Soviet T-54s and T-55s)

- Hezbollah : A few older models


Missiles

- Israel : 360+

- Lebanon : None

- Hezbollah : 10,000 to 15,000 rockets


Combat aircraft

- Israel : 470 warplanes

- Lebanon : None

- Hezbollah : None


Major naval vessels

- Israel : 15 warships, 3 submarines

- Lebanon : None

- Hezbollah : None


Sources: Jane's Sentinel Security Assessment and International Institute for Strategic Studies

Lebanese Armed Forces Budget

$1.645 billion, 2013 (For absolutely everything)

Lebanon says gas, oil reserves may be higher than thought

By Laila Bassam
BEIRUT Wed Oct 30, 2013 12:08pm EDT

(Reuters) - Lebanese Energy Minister Gebran Bassil said new estimates for nearly half of Lebanese waters suggested the country's reserves of natural gas and oil might be larger than previously thought.

"The current estimate, under a probability of 50 percent, for almost 45 percent of our waters has reached 95.9 trillion cubic feet of gas and 865 million barrels of oil," he said.

The estimates are based on seismic surveys conducted ahead of an auction for exploration rights which has already been delayed by several months by a political stalemate in Lebanon.

As Lebanon prepares to move toward exploring and developing its offshore oil and gas resources, Bassil said he hoped that hydrocarbon revenues would give the country "political, economic and financial independence".

"This definitely needs more exploration and drilling activities to get more precise figures, but this is an indication that with more work surveys and analyses, we are getting higher results and higher expectations," he said in an interview at the Reuters Middle East Investment Summit.

The figures are the first estimates by the government for such a large area of Lebanon's 10 exploration blocs, which range from 1,500 to 2,500 square kilometers, and appear to imply higher reserves than several previous estimates.

A 2010 U.S. Geological Survey study estimated that the Levantine Basin, an area of 83,000 square km which includes waters outside Lebanon's jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean, held 122 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas and 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil.

An analyst at survey firm Spectrum estimated in May that the country's total deepwater gas reserves could be up to 80 trillion cubic feet.


DEBT, POWER SHORTAGES

Lebanon has been hoping that sizeable gas discoveries could help address both its high level of government debt and its chronic domestic power shortages.

But progress will be difficult given the country's political turmoil, after Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigned in March amid partisan squabbling that has stalled most government decisions.

Earlier this month, Bassil said he had delayed Lebanon's offshore gas licensing round by another month until January after politicians failed to form a new government, which is needed to approve decrees to launch the bidding process.

Without approval of those documents, Lebanon's efforts to exploit maritime reserves are on hold and 46 companies it selected in April to bid for gas exploration will have to wait.

Bassil said that although no companies had formally withdrawn from the bidding round because of the delays, some were "hesitant and there are questions being raised".

Drilling could also be delayed in southern exploration blocs by disputes over a maritime border between Lebanon and Israel that has never been delineated because the two countries are technically at war.

Bassil warned in July that Israel had the technical ability to draw from Lebanese underwater gas fields. Israel's Energy Ministry declined to comment on Bassil's remarks.

In addition to the tensions within Lebanon's cabinet, economic activity in the country has been hurt by a spillover of sectarian violence from the Syrian civil war next door; clashes continued on Sunday in the Lebanese coastal city of Tripoli.

Separately, Bassil said an onshore oil and gas survey was moving ahead as planned, in the hope that surveys of Lebanon's Mediterranean waters could be matched by similar prospects on land.

He said one of five 2-D seismic surveys had been completed and a second was to start next week.

(Writing by Oliver Holmes; Editing by Andrew Torchia)

Reuters

Continue...

Rafic Hariri (1944 – 2005)

Saad Hariri

Al-Waleed bin Talal


...

 

[al-Hasani]

BBC News - Lebanese troops fire at Syrian warplanes

@Arabian Legend @JUBA @Bubblegum Crisis

 

[SQ8]

The rearming has little to do with Israel.. as neither Saudi Arabia nor France are hostile to them. The former cooperates on regional issues covertly while the other is a regular contributor to Israeli progress. The rearming is to ensure a bullwark to the Shia bloc vs the Sunni bloc. The Saudis would prefer to have Lebanon rid of Shia influence even if it means another civil war.

 

[al-Hasani]

The rearming has little to do with Israel.. as neither Saudi Arabia nor France are hostile to them. The former cooperates on regional issues covertly while the other is a regular contributor to Israeli progress. The rearming is to ensure a bullwark to the Shia bloc vs the Sunni bloc. The Saudis would prefer to have Lebanon rid of Shia influence even if it means another civil war.

There would be no problem had HizbAlShaitan not attempted to hijack Lebanon and rule it while being nothing more than a militia representing SOME of the Shias in Lebanon. Can you imagine having a terrorist group/militia (call it what you want) that is way stronger than the national army?

Let alone their involvement in Syria (out of nowhere) where they actively support the bloodbath of Muslims there while we speak. That is what had turned Muslims against them in great, great numbers. Once former supporters of them when they were engaged in that conflict with Israel 7.5 years ago.

Anyway HizbAlShaitan have not touched Israel for 7.5 long years. They gained nothing. A strong Lebanese army is a much bigger threat to Israel on the long run than a rag-tag militia.

Of course no matter what happens then Lebanon will stand with no chance to defeat Israel. If you want to defeat Israel more countries are needed to do that. HizbAlShaitan and others play a little role in this. Just empty rhetoric. The sole fact that their leader hides in some basement and all of the leadership should be enough.

It all goes down to the Mullah's in Iran and their meddling. They have no business in meddling in internal Arab matters. They are no superpower and should look for their own who fair to say are not in the best of situations and never were since 1979.

Now Lebanon has been dominated by an Iranian proxy for nearly 3 decades and I did not see complains about that. Now because KSA is supporting the Lebanese military (not any particular group, they could have supported Sunni militias) it is suddenly all bad. Why the double standards?

 

[Bubblegum Crisis]

... The Saudis would prefer to have Lebanon rid of Shia influence...

Hezbollah gambles all in Syria

Hezbollah gambles all in Syria

 

[SQ8]

There would be no problem had HizbAlShaitan not attempted to hijack Lebanon and rule it while being nothing more than a militia representing SOME of the Shias in Lebanon. Can you imagine having a terrorist group/militia (call it what you want) that is way stronger than the national army?

Let alone their involvement in Syria (out of nowhere) where they actively support the bloodbath of Muslims there while we speak. That is what had turned Muslims against them in great, great numbers. Once former supporters of them when they were engaged in that conflict with Israel 7.5 years ago.

Anyway HizbAlShaitan have not touched Israel for 7.5 long years. They gained nothing. A strong Lebanese army is a much bigger threat to Israel on the long run than a rag-tag militia.

Of course no matter what happens then Lebanon will stand with no chance to defeat Israel. If you want to defeat Israel more countries are needed to do that. HizbAlShaitan and others play a little role in this. Just empty rhetoric.

It all goes down to the Mullah's in Iran and their meddling. They have no business in meddling in internal Arab matters. They are no superpower and should look for their own who fair to say are not in the best of situations and never were since 1979.

Now Lebanon has been dominated by an Iranian proxy for nearly 3 decades and I did not see complains about that. Now because KSA is supporting the Lebanese military (not any particular group, they could have supported Sunni militias) it is suddenly all bad. Why the double standards?

Regardless of your emotions for the situation; the current scenario suits the west best. The Saudis representing the Sunni bloc and the Iranians representing the Shia bloc locked in a Muslim Civil war keeps Israel relatively safe whilst also ensuring that the instability creates greater opportunity to draw down the economy of oil producing nations in the gulf and raise those in Africa and South America to compete where transportation costs might be cheaper.

Whatever Hizbolloh does, it does worry Israel.. The Saudi government has at no point shown any aggression towards Israel nor does it have issues as such. Hence the idea that somehow the arming is part of a plan for Israel has no backup to it. The Arming is against Iranian influence.. and that is clear.

 

[al-Hasani]

Regardless of your emotions for the situation; the current scenario suits the west best. The Saudis representing the Sunni bloc and the Iranians representing the Shia bloc locked in a Muslim Civil war keeps Israel relatively safe whilst also ensuring that the instability creates greater opportunity to draw down the economy of oil producing nations in the gulf and raise those in Africa and South America to compete where transportation costs might be cheaper.

Whatever Hizbolloh does, it does worry Israel.. The Saudi government has at no point shown any aggression towards Israel nor does it have issues as such. Hence the idea that somehow the arming is part of a plan for Israel has no backup to it. The Arming is against Iranian influence.. and that is clear.

I forgot to tell that who even forced the Saudi Arabians to create blocs or actively counter the aggressive policy of Iran? Iran themselves.

I never said that it was a plan against Israel anyway which is a nuclear power and the superior military in the ME living on the welfare of the West. They are literary using cheat codes or on steroids compared to the rest.

I said that a strong Lebanese army is a bigger threat on the long run against Israel than a rag-tag militia like HizbAlShaitan whose leader is hiding in some basement together with his leadership.

They are no match for Israel anyway. Had it not been for the international community Israel could have utterly destroyed all of Southern Lebanon (literary) and then HizbAlShaitan would never be heard about again. You don't win wars with militias. The closest Israel have been to a defeat was when it was engaged by national armies.

Also once again. HizbAlShaitan has not touched Israel for 7.5 years. Instead they prefer to kill Muslims in Syria.

Of course it is against negative Iranian influence that does not belong in the Arab world. You don't think that Iran would counter negative Arab influence inside Iran?

 

[Full Moon]

The tragedy of the Syrian Civil War brought a number of good things. Among them is the loss of Hizbollah’s legendary image as "liberation forces". Now everybody sees H. Nasrallah as a powerless servant for the Iranians.

All the propaganda of the Iranian regime has also been widely exposed and ridiculed.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Actually it is conventional armies that Israel knows how to fight best. Egypt, Jordan etc back in the day fought Israel with conventional armies and were rather humiliated.
Therefore Lebanese army poses zero threat for Israel.

It is the modern day "Viet Cong's" ala Hezbollah which uses assymetrical methods of war, that Israel does not know how to fight effectively.
Hezbollah is a far more complicated strategic problem for Israel, than Lebanon's army could ever be.

 

[al-Hasani]

The tragedy of the Syrian Civil War brought a number of good things. Among them is the loss of Hizbollah’s legendary image as "liberation forces". Now everybody sees H. Nasrallah as a powerless servant for the Iranians.

All the propaganda of the Iranian regime has also been widely exposed and ridiculed.

If they stopped being a pariah state hellbent on trying to rule all of the ME while using Shia Islam as a slur such situations might not have erupted. But the first is their all and everything since they established their so-called "Islamic" revolution in 1979.

We will simply never allow that and have made it clear for them directly and indirectly. So either they stop or learn about the consequences.

We are ready to sacrifice our lives if necessary against anyone wishing us harm.

 

[Full Moon]

It appears that this is the nature of revolutionary regimes. They somewhat tend to "export" internal tension through opening different fronts.

Overall, this may expedite their loss of power and eventually the end of the Iranian Regime as we know it today.

Let's all remember that there is a sharp division in the Iranian society between Shia conservatives, and liberal nationalists.

The nationalists have been impatiently waiting for the right chance to put an end to the Mullas’ political madness.

I am almost certain that we will all live to see that moment – which may no longer be far from us.

 

[al-Hasani]

It appears that this is the nature of revolutionary regimes. They somewhat tend to "export" internal tension through opening different fronts.

Overall, this may expedite their loss of power and eventually the end of the Iranian Regime as we know it today.

Let's all remember that there is a sharp division in the Iranian society between Shia conservatives, and liberal nationalists.

The nationalists have been impatiently waiting for the right chance to put an end to the Mullas’ political madness.

I am almost certain that we will all live to see that moment – which may no longer be far from us.

You and other Arabs should not really think that much about what is happening in Iran as it does not concern us that much to be frank. Maybe only Iraq as the only Arab country and neighbor of Iran can be really influenced by the events there but that is even as doubtful.

The bottom end is that negative Iranian meddling will never be accepted in the Arab world. Whoever will rule them (Some Grand Ayatollah, Shah or whatever) then normal relations can be welcomed for the sake of all countries of the region but if they don't want that then what can we do? Their choice. We can do without them as we always did.

But since you mentioned this topic then I agree that the Mullah's Iran are not a long-term project. They will either get removed from within (probably a nationalist takeover) or change policy (internal and external) drastically in order to survive. You already see that they are ready to "work" with the evil West that they have been cursing for the past 34 years.

 

[ResurgentIran]

It has not been Iran's policy to NOT work with the West. Its not sanctions that brought us to the table, in fact we have always been at the negotiating table.
Before sanctions and pressure, we had less than 100 (I think) centrifuges. After sanctions, we have almost 20.000.
We dont respond to threats and intimidation. We respond to constructive dialogue and if there is political will from the other side to establish better relations.

In 2003 we made an offer to the US about normalization or "grand bargain", via a letter the Swiss embassy passed on to Washington. We put everything on the table. They refused.
Today our offer is the same as it was then (even after sanctions).

So that we are being pressured into submission or something, is a false narrative. Once the West and the GCC countries change their hostile behavior, we will reciprocate and change ours as well.

 

[Bubblegum Crisis]

...
It is the modern day "Viet Cong's" ala Hezbollah which uses assymetrical methods of war, that Israel does not know how to fight effectively...

Oh, really ?

2006 Lebanon War - Casualties and losses

Lebanese citizens (combatants included) and foreign civilians:

Dead:

1,191 (Amnesty International)

1,109 (including 250 Hezbollah militants)(Human Rights Watch)

1,191 (Lebanese government est.)

Wounded:

4,409

 

[ResurgentIran]

Oh, really ?

2006 Lebanon War - Casualties and losses

Lebanese citizens (combatants included) and foreign civilians:

Dead:

1,191 (Amnesty International)

1,109 (including 250 Hezbollah militants)(Human Rights Watch)

1,191 (Lebanese government est.)

Wounded:

4,409

Thanks. You kinda reinforced my point. I repeat, Israel does not know how to fight Hezbollah effectivel. They did not know it in 2006, which is why they bombed civilians blatantly (I hardly see that as a vicotry, but rather as an act of desperation). And they do not know it today.
Did they eliminate Hezbollah from Lebanon? Hardly no. Today Hezbollah is several times more powerful than it ever was.