How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?

[Saudang]

Read your first post and I told myself to refrain from responding since there were replies for you. But your posts really brought me smiles. Thanks LOL. When comparing the impending war in Taiwan to Ukraine's current conflict, do you realize Taiwan is an island and Ukraine is connected to NATO countries by lands? After bombing every radar and power plants, roads, airports, military installations, ports, and anything I left out of this list, PLA is still in no hurry to put boots on the island. Why should they? If minesweepers need months to clean the mines for transport ships, then be it.

are you indicating that weapons can be transported in trucks and aifcrafts but not ships? or you believe that China can create sea denial around Taiwan

 

[White and Green with M/S]

How are they going to do that? Chinese land based bombers would wreck havoc on US navy ships in Taiwan strait. US navy ships don't have the range to hit Kashgar airbase from which strategic anti ship bombers operate.

And USN have no defense against your Bombers lol, THey will lit by Agis PESA hundred miles inland, lolo just lol

 

[White and Green with M/S]

How are they going to do that? Chinese land based bombers would wreck havoc on US navy ships in Taiwan strait. US navy ships don't have the range to hit Kashgar airbase from which strategic anti ship bombers operate.

But they will hit your hundreds of bombers easily, and your kashgar airbase can easily hit by 2500 km range Tomahawk cruise missiles from SCS or Taiwani straight

 

[MajesticPug]

are you indicating that weapons can be transported in trucks and aifcrafts but not ships? or you believe that China can create sea denial around Taiwan

Yes, unless US and Japan want to escort the transport ships with their battle groups -- which means they've openly declared war on China and China could rightfully annihilate their ships. That's still a YES.

 

[MajesticPug]

But they will hit your hundreds of bombers easily, and your kashgar airbase can easily hit by 2500 km range Tomahawk cruise missiles from SCS or Taiwani straight

US ships in the Taiwan Straits to fight China? What in the world had you drunk? Borrowing former Alaska governor's logic, I opened my window in Fujian and could see Taiwan from my house.

From SCS or anywhere your Tomahawks could shoot from? DF-17, 25, and 26 easily out-range your Tomahawks. Perhaps only the nuclear subs could fire Tomahawks and start running. Any surface ships will be in the danger of being annihilated. That... plus all the military bases in Japan, S Korea, and Guam will be subjected to attacks as well. There's no law or international convention that says retaliation could only be limited to the ships that fire the gun. In another word, it's an all-out war.

THAT NOT EASY AS YOU THINK, UK/USA NAVAL FORCES WILL ARRIVED IN NO TIME AND TO DESTROY YOUR NAVAL FORCES IN PACIFIC LOL

They will arive in time to get destroyed. LOL..

 

[White and Green with M/S]

US ships in the Taiwan Straits to fight China? What in the world had you drunk? Borrowing former Alaska governor's logic, I opened my window in Fujian and could see Taiwan from my house.

From SCS or anywhere your Tomahawks could shoot from? DF-17, 25, and 26 easily out-range your Tomahawks. Perhaps only the nuclear subs could fire Tomahawks and start running. Any surface ships will be in the danger of being annihilated. That... plus all the military bases in Japan, S Korea, and Guam will be subjected to attacks as well. There's no law or international convention that says retaliation could only be limited to the ships that fire the gun. In another word, it's an all-out war.

kid kid calm down Agis destroyer also has SM-5/6 to shoot down your mighty DF17/25 and 26 and for USAF bases in far east are protected by THAAD

 

[nang2]

kid kid calm down Agis destroyer also has SM-5/6 to shoot down your mighty DF17/25 and 26 and for USAF bases in far east are protected by THAAD

Maybe it can also shoot down the thing that is your avatar.

 

[MajesticPug]

kid kid calm down Agis destroyer also has SM-5/6 to shoot down your mighty DF17/25 and 26 and for USAF bases in far east are protected by THAAD

I have never heard such anti-science claim, even from the most hawkish American generals to Pompeo to Trump. Can you show me evidence how any anti-missile systems had demonstrated gunning down hypersonic vehicles?

Or it's in your computer game?

And USN have no defense against your Bombers lol, THey will lit by Agis PESA hundred miles inland, lolo just lol

You realized the PESA on American ships were some three decades old, right? They can take on N Korean warships, no questions. They can't even gun down a supersonic missile like YJ-18 or YJ-12, lest a hypersonic one. You'd too much to drink.

 

[gambit]

I have never heard such anti-science claim, even from the most hawkish American generals to Pompeo to Trump. Can you show me evidence how any anti-missile systems had demonstrated gunning down hypersonic vehicles?

You realized the PESA on American ships were some three decades old, right? They can take on N Korean warships, no questions. They can't even gun down a supersonic missile like YJ-18 or YJ-12, lest a hypersonic one. You'd too much to drink.

Science, eh? I will take this. Explain to ME on how science 'proved' that hypersonic missile cannot be intercepted. I will be waiting for your explanation with a bourbon in hand. I do not need to be sober to debunk you.

 

[MajesticPug]

Science, eh? I will take this. Explain to ME on how science 'proved' that hypersonic missile cannot be intercepted. I will be waiting for your explanation with a bourbon in hand. I do not need to be sober to debunk you.

Show me any test result that demonstrates hypersonic missiles were intercepted. I'd be happy to debunk you with or without bourbon. Then you could show me how an intercepting system knows the path of a 'hyper-gliding' hypersonic vehicle. That's science -- the fact that you know today, not tomorrow and not after you get some helps from the aliens.

 

[White and Green with M/S]

I have never heard such anti-science claim, even from the most hawkish American generals to Pompeo to Trump. Can you show me evidence how any anti-missile systems had demonstrated gunning down hypersonic vehicles?

Or it's in your computer game?

first you need to learn basic science, all BMs warhead have BALLISTIC trajectories which can easily predicted by computers, for MARV warheads or boost glide vehicles its more complicated but can be calculated through networked enabled systems and for defense you ever heard LAYERED DEFENSE SYSTEMS

You realized the PESA on American ships were some three decades old, right? They can take on N Korean warships, no questions. They can't even gun down a supersonic missile like YJ-18 or YJ-12, lest a hypersonic one. You'd too much to drink.

LOL Agis flight 3 has a latest PESA and your old junk H-6 (50 era design) doesn't lit by Agis system, in which world do you live in kid

And as for your mighty YJ-12 is not a true cruise missile it cruises at tens of meters instead few meter like subsonic one hence can easily being detected/tracked at cruise stages, it has big IR and Radar signature and can't travel few meter above the waves and can be easily intercepted by ESSM (EVOLVE SEA SPARROW) and RAM (ROLLING AIRFRAME MISSILE) at terminal stages

USN is mostly concern hybrid anti ship Missiles subsonic at cruise stage ( CAN CRUISE FEW METER ABOVE THE SURFACE LIKE SUBSONICS ONE) AND SUPERSONIC AT TERMINAL STAGES LIKE RUSSIAN KLUB WHICH COPIED AS A YJ-18

 

[gambit]

Show me any test result that demonstrates hypersonic missiles were intercepted. I'd be happy to debunk you with or without bourbon. Then you could show me how an intercepting system knows the path of a 'hyper-gliding' hypersonic vehicle. That's science -- the fact that you know today, not tomorrow and not after you get some helps from the aliens.

What you implicitly made is a claim, not science, that a body traveling at hypersonic velocity cannot be intercepted. Bodies on a ballistic descent ALREADY traveling at hypersonic velocity can be intercepted because the body is on a predictable path. So based on hypersonic velocity alone, you are already wrong.

Further, you do not understand the meaning of 'interception'. But I will give you a hint: proportional navigation guidance law.

PN guidance law can intercept any body traveling at any velocity. That is real science. Not the junk you are trying to peddle here. So it seems like you do not know any science at all.

 

[MH.Yang]

it really depends how China does it and how determined it is to take the Island. It could just blitz the country into submission by concentrated cruise and ballistic missile fire or just have Taiwan destroyed in a direct war with Taiwan and a US proxy war in Taiwan. An economic blockade wouldn't be hard to achieve either by threats to international freight shipping and the consequential collapse of the Taiwanese economy. We could then see Western sanctions and grabbing of Chinese assets similar to what has happened against Russia. There would then be a regional anti-Chinese flurry as smaller countries panic into the Western sphere of influence and gang up against China . Depending on the regional reaction it would determine whether a wider regional war is ignited.

Have you ever wondered why the West has been unable to transfer manufacturing from China? Why do Chinese people earn six times as much as Indians, but goods made in India are much more expensive than those made in China? Because China is the only country with a complete industrial system.

Even in the last century, China has never been the country with the lowest labor cost. In fact, in addition to low-end labor-intensive industries, labor cost is not the largest commodity cost, and industrial chain and logistics are the biggest commodity costs, that is also the reason why the cost of goods in countries such as India is much higher than that in China. I am engaged in cemented carbide industry, if I want to sell a batch of drill bits, first I need to buy tungsten powder and cobalt powder from other enterprises, then I need other enterprises to help me press it into alloy rods, I also need enterprises to help me do wire cutting, and I also need enterprises to help me weld the alloy head to the steel bar. A total of more than 10 enterprises are required to cooperate together. If I am an Indian, I need to mail products more than ten times around the world and bear the logistics cost and time back and forth, the logistics cost will exceed the cost of the product itself by several times. In China, I can carry out all production links in one city.

China has the largest, most perfect and most reasonably designed industrial chain in the world, and the most advanced and efficient logistics system, that is the most important reason why capital cannot leave China. Sorry, I forgot that there is also the largest market in the world. Any enterprise leaving China will face fierce competition from China, and it will be difficult for such enterprises to survive.

The modern industrial system is huge and complex, far beyond your imagination.

You come from the West and are not as familiar with industrial knowledge as the Chinese, so you really underestimate the difficulty and time of rebuilding the modern industrial system from scratch.



These are consumables for coal and oil mines. If the supply of consumables is stopped, these mines will be shut down within three days. If the work is stopped for more than three months, these machines need to be overhauled and then scrapped<So if China ZCC.CT group (factory 601, which produces 15% of the world's cemented carbide products) imposes sanctions on Russia, Russia will not be able to produce any resources.>.

The modern industrial system is a result of the gradual upgrading and accumulation of human beings over a thousand years. If the industrial chain breaks, it will be scrapped quickly, but the reconstruction time will take generations.

For example, if you want to make penicillin, a necessity of modern mankind, you first need to be able to make freeze-dried powder. If you want to make lyophilized powder, you first need high voltage current. If you want high voltage current, you first need stainless steel, special steel, rubber and electric welding. Synthetic rubber needs organic chemical industry, which needs ethylene manufacturing and aromatics manufacturing. Welding requires electrical systems, which require capacitor manufacturing and mercury arc rectifiers, which require chlorine manufacturing and aluminum industry. Just one penicillin, you need to develop hundreds of industrial links. It takes only a week for China to get resource countries to abandon the dollar, because Chinese have mastered the necessities of life and production consumables they need. The west can't even make light bulbs in a week, because it needs vacuum pumps, and then vacuum pumps need hundreds of advanced technologies.

Even if Western countries are given a hundred years, they will not be able to rebuild the whole industrial chain from scratch. China is the only country on the blue planet with a complete manufacturing industry.



USA does not control more than 70% of the world's military and financial power, but China controls more than 70% of the world's factories. Once China launches sanctions against the west, confiscate all western factories & Investment & Patents in China. Some of the only factories in the West will also be shut down and abandoned quickly due to the broken supply chain. For example, Kenner and Sandvik of Germany, which need Chinese raw materials in the cemented carbide industry, and Indian and American pharmaceutical companies in the pharmaceutical industry.
Without material and commodity supplies, USA cannot even wage war against a small country like Haiti. Of course, the US military should be busy dealing with domestic riots at that time. Once the supply of goods is cut off, whether rich or poor, Americans will rob supermarkets with guns.

 

[Oom]

Have you ever wondered why the West has been unable to transfer manufacturing from China? Why do Chinese people earn six times as much as Indians, but goods made in India are much more expensive than those made in China? Because China is the only country with a complete industrial system.

Even in the last century, China has never been the country with the lowest labor cost. In fact, in addition to low-end labor-intensive industries, labor cost is not the largest commodity cost, and industrial chain and logistics are the biggest commodity costs, that is also the reason why the cost of goods in countries such as India is much higher than that in China. I am engaged in cemented carbide industry, if I want to sell a batch of drill bits, first I need to buy tungsten powder and cobalt powder from other enterprises, then I need other enterprises to help me press it into alloy rods, I also need enterprises to help me do wire cutting, and I also need enterprises to help me weld the alloy head to the steel bar. A total of more than 10 enterprises are required to cooperate together. If I am an Indian, I need to mail products more than ten times around the world and bear the logistics cost and time back and forth, the logistics cost will exceed the cost of the product itself by several times. In China, I can carry out all production links in one city.

China has the largest, most perfect and most reasonably designed industrial chain in the world, and the most advanced and efficient logistics system, that is the most important reason why capital cannot leave China. Sorry, I forgot that there is also the largest market in the world. Any enterprise leaving China will face fierce competition from China, and it will be difficult for such enterprises to survive.

The modern industrial system is huge and complex, far beyond your imagination.

You come from the West and are not as familiar with industrial knowledge as the Chinese, so you really underestimate the difficulty and time of rebuilding the modern industrial system from scratch.



These are consumables for coal and oil mines. If the supply of consumables is stopped, these mines will be shut down within three days. If the work is stopped for more than three months, these machines need to be overhauled and then scrapped<So if China ZCC.CT group (factory 601, which produces 15% of the world's cemented carbide products) imposes sanctions on Russia, Russia will not be able to produce any resources.>.

View attachment 832134

View attachment 832135

The modern industrial system is a result of the gradual upgrading and accumulation of human beings over a thousand years. If the industrial chain breaks, it will be scrapped quickly, but the reconstruction time will take generations.

For example, if you want to make penicillin, a necessity of modern mankind, you first need to be able to make freeze-dried powder. If you want to make lyophilized powder, you first need high voltage current. If you want high voltage current, you first need stainless steel, special steel, rubber and electric welding. Synthetic rubber needs organic chemical industry, which needs ethylene manufacturing and aromatics manufacturing. Welding requires electrical systems, which require capacitor manufacturing and mercury arc rectifiers, which require chlorine manufacturing and aluminum industry. Just one penicillin, you need to develop hundreds of industrial links. It takes only a week for China to get resource countries to abandon the dollar, because Chinese have mastered the necessities of life and production consumables they need. The west can't even make light bulbs in a week, because it needs vacuum pumps, and then vacuum pumps need hundreds of advanced technologies.

Even if Western countries are given a hundred years, they will not be able to rebuild the whole industrial chain from scratch. China is the only country on the blue planet with a complete manufacturing industry.

Retarded Indians think that with motto like “made in India”- all manufacturing hub will shift, lol. Your analysis was on point, labour cost is not the biggest cost in industries, rather the entire supply chain efficiency and logistics/ infrastructure.

To be fair, Vietnam has done a good job linking its industrial supply chain with China. Wish Pakistan had the foresight for the same. But that requires a command governance model to implement, which we don’t have.

 

[MH.Yang]

Retarded Indians think that with motto like “made in India”- all manufacturing hub will shift, lol. Your analysis was on point, labour cost is not the biggest cost in industries, rather the entire supply chain efficiency and logistics/ infrastructure.

To be fair, Vietnam has done a good job linking its industrial supply chain with China. Wish Pakistan had the foresight for the same. But that requires a command governance model to implement, which we don’t have.

Yes, and even the biggest difficulty is not the equipment of the industrial chain, but a sufficient number of qualified industrial workers. In order to rebuild an industry and reach the level of modern industry, it must be large-scale and standardized. And enough industrial workers is the biggest difficulty.

For example, even if China gives all the machines of the cemented carbide industry in Zhuzhou City to India, will the Indian government be able to find enough skilled workers to use them? Are there hundreds of thousands of workers in India who understand cemented carbide production? I'm afraid India can't even find 10% of qualified workers. Western countries have long ignored the industrial sector, and they are also unable to find enough qualified workers.

Moreover, China's sanctions will inevitably lead to the rapid collapse of the western monetary system. If dollar cannot buy goods, which country is willing to accept it? Therefore, the reconstruction of the industrial system also faces the problem of resource supply.