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Tuesday, May 24, 2011: Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs trip to Afghanistan had the tell tale signs of a farewell visit. It was a grim reminder of Comrade Najibullahs last visit to Delhi or anywhere else. After signing a stack-ful of MoUs with grandiose plans, Najibullah found himself hanging from a pole in Kabul. Pretty soon Delhi was served with an eviction notice out of Afghanistan. The same story was repeated when the Iranian president visit Delhi. All those plans about building Chahbahra and links to Kabul via Iran are now part of a dustbin.
Theres no question of retreating from Afghanistan, says a senior Indian diplomat. Such bravado is for public consumption, because the Bharati diplomats themselves dont believe it and cannot say it with conviction.
While Delhi touts the amount of money it has spent in Afghanistanmost analysts agree that the amount is exaggerated, and there is little to show for it in real terms in the Hindu Kush mountains (Hindu Killer). Bharat tried to push soft power in a war zone. This is like imagining the East India Company to run arts and crafts projects to win over the hostiles in South Asia, and China. Bharats claims to being a relevant player in Afghanistan relies on an exaggerated idea of what Soft Power can accomplish in the graveyard of empires. It didnt work then and it doesnt work now. Lord Curzons attempts at subduing the fierce tribesman of Pakistan and Afghanistan led to the horrid defeats at Maiwand. Even today the Afghan and Pakistanis name their children Ayub Khan (the Pakistan president was one such person named after the famous Ayub Khan that defeated the British), the hero of that battle which routed the British. There is an overwhelming body of evidence which describes the facts on how India is retreating from Afghanistan and scaling down its failed projects.
1) Nearly 50% of Indian personnel working on various projects in Afghanistan have been sent home.
2) The Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health in Kabul is without an Indian doctor medical guidance is teleconferenced in from New Delhi.
3) Bharat has yet to start on the Salma dam (which would stop water to Pakistan and Iran). The Talibs have sworn to blow it up, if it is ever built.
4) Bharat has failed to construct the Afghan Parliament first started with an un-Islamic design, and still an edifice of rebar, mortar and steel not mature enough to be called a building.
5) Bharats Self-Employed Womens Association (SEWA) scheme has been put on hold.
6) Bharati-run vocational courses have been suspended.
7) The training of Afghan civilian personnel will not be imparted in Kabul though it may happen in India now (but is hampered by costs and budgetary constraints).
Bharat is clueless about Afghanistan and sees the country through Bollywood eyes. Most Bharatis think that the Pathans (as they are called in Delhi) are like Shahrukh Khan there to entertain the masses. The manner in which Bharat set about its Afghan project was as if it would be directing a Bollywood movie. Soft power of soap operas Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi (The Mother-in-Law Was Once the Daughter-in-Law), and a hospital and a road would supposedly transform the country into an Indian state never mind the fact that Bharat does not have a contiguous border with Afghanistan and never mind the fact that the Afghans (with or without the Taliban) are ferociously Anti-Indian and vociferously Anti-Hindu (the Pakistan factor not withstanding). Delusion is endemic in Delhi, insignificance is mistaken for reality. Clarity of short distance is seen as vision. Bharati pundits in South block, far removed from Kabul believe that their adored Bollywood dramas will prove decisive in winning a war in Afghanistan! It is amusing to see how many Bharati policy-makers who actually believe the crock that that is doled out about the significance of Bollywood in Kabul. The Mumbai paradigm cannot be used in Kabul.
Imagine a hospital without doctorsthat is what the Indira Gandhi institute in Kabul is. Children are diagnosed on TV monitors. The amount of frustration felt by the Afghan about this hospital can only be gaged by its empty halls, unvisited Emergency Center and desolate rooms.
The 150 kilometer Zaranj-Dilaram road is one of the most advertised pieces of disused carriageway in the world. Bharat has not lost an opportunity to tout it. Facts intrude to inform the engineers, that the road was unusable the week it was opened. Littered with potholes, all bridges have been blown up, there has been no maintenance of it since it was built, and the irony of the situation is that the Talibs control it. It was supposedly built to offer an alternate route to Kabulbypassing Pakistan. Today the parking lot is owned by the Anti-Indian Pakhtuns.
The Bharati attempt to build the Afghan parliament building is a case study in what not to do. Why would Bharat come up with a design of the parliament building which would not reflect Afghanistan rich Islamic past. Tied to the dream of secularism Delhi tried to ram a strange design down the throat of the Afghans, who balkedeven though it was free. After a national protest the design was changed, but the damage had been done. Instead of garnishing goodwill, Bharat ended up with antagonism and animosity.
Image: Afghan Parliament building: The construction of this potemkin village sort of building began in 2005 and in typical Bharati style, after 6 years, it is still a jumble of wire and steel. Construction has slowed down due to security concerns, and because Indians cannot operate in Kabul and the Talibs have threatened that the building will be blown up.
The end resultafter seven years, the building is a long way off before it can host the Afghan jirga. According to Peter Lee The Afghan parliament building is, as the writer says, greatly symbolic. Indeed, it is an almost perfect metaphor for Indias Afghanistan project Because its not built.
The Bharati attempt to interfere in the Afghan elections has boomeranged. Instead of supporting the Indian educated Karzai, the Bharatis sided with the Americans and supported Abdullah Abdullah who lost the elections. Karzai then threw in his lot with the Pakistanis who had supported him.
For the longest time the Bharatis had been opposed to a reconciliation with the Talibs. This ran contrary to Afghan sensitives who voted for a national consensus with the Talibs. This has left them out in left field. Premier Manmohan retreated and this is the best he could when faced by the Karzai quote the Pakistan consensus in necessary.
Analysts blame no one but India for its plight. It is a victim of its own bad policies. In what seems like proto-history now, Delhi supported the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and Delhi has also supported the American occupation. It was wrong on both counts. Afghan know that Pakistan helped them defeat the USSR, and they also know that Pakistan joined the US venture, only reluctantly and only when faced with Armitages threat of being bombed to the stone age. More than 6 million Afghans were born in Pakistan, and they travel freely across the country. Their kith and kin are in important positions in the Pakistani government and the Pakistani Army. The Afghan Pakhtun and otherwise know Pakistan like the back of their handmany know Pakistani cities better then own villages where their forefathers lived for centuries. More than 3 million refuse to go back to Afghanistan. The Afghans have changed the demographics of Balochistanhence the rumors about the Quetta Shurra in Quetta. Bharat has no capacity to compete with Pakistan either in religion or geography.
Analysts also say that Bharat was not assertive enough in Kabul, lacked the confidence to to deal with the events and Hindustan was overwhelmed by Iran and Pakistan both of which had colossal constituencies in the country. Bharat could have gotten itself a solid foothold in Afghanistan, but it antagonized the two peoples who could helped it get that foothold. Delhi tried to circumvent Islamabad, and then avoid Tehran. Both saw Delhi as a rival and thus opposed every move that Delhi made.
Admittedly, Bharats Incredible India has had some limited success in hiding the plight of the toiling masses but Bollywoods gloss can go only so far. Visitors to Bharat are appalled by the wall of unimaginable penury that hit them right at the airport. Bharats sophisticated marketing prowess works on powerpoint slides, but falls flat on its face as soon as the rubber meets the road. No amount of rhetoric can turn Afghanistan as the next tourist destination for 2011 hippies.
Bharati academics missed the boat and are now once again trying to drive a wedge between the Americans and the Pakistanis in the Post-OBL era. They think that they will be able to portray Pakistan in a bad light over OBL. They forget that a large portion of the Afghan population still has positive feelings for those who support him. So the Pakistanis are at the opposite end of the spectrum.
There is a new kid on the block! Delhi fails to see the Big Dragon in the room. Maybe the pundits in Delhi miss the point that China has a touch-point border with Afghanistan and now is ready to play a role there. The Pakistanis have been urging Hamid Karzai to dump the US and instead look to Pakistan and China for a peace deal with the Taliban and rebuilding the economy. Bharat cannot offer Kabul that, and the US wont be there to help the Bharatis.
As Peter Lee says Despite hopeful prognostications, it is quite likely that the emergence of a reconciled-taliban Kabul government through Pakistans mediation is not going to be a good thing for India.
Theres no question of retreating from Afghanistan, says a senior Indian diplomat. Such bravado is for public consumption, because the Bharati diplomats themselves dont believe it and cannot say it with conviction.
While Delhi touts the amount of money it has spent in Afghanistanmost analysts agree that the amount is exaggerated, and there is little to show for it in real terms in the Hindu Kush mountains (Hindu Killer). Bharat tried to push soft power in a war zone. This is like imagining the East India Company to run arts and crafts projects to win over the hostiles in South Asia, and China. Bharats claims to being a relevant player in Afghanistan relies on an exaggerated idea of what Soft Power can accomplish in the graveyard of empires. It didnt work then and it doesnt work now. Lord Curzons attempts at subduing the fierce tribesman of Pakistan and Afghanistan led to the horrid defeats at Maiwand. Even today the Afghan and Pakistanis name their children Ayub Khan (the Pakistan president was one such person named after the famous Ayub Khan that defeated the British), the hero of that battle which routed the British. There is an overwhelming body of evidence which describes the facts on how India is retreating from Afghanistan and scaling down its failed projects.
1) Nearly 50% of Indian personnel working on various projects in Afghanistan have been sent home.
2) The Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health in Kabul is without an Indian doctor medical guidance is teleconferenced in from New Delhi.
3) Bharat has yet to start on the Salma dam (which would stop water to Pakistan and Iran). The Talibs have sworn to blow it up, if it is ever built.
4) Bharat has failed to construct the Afghan Parliament first started with an un-Islamic design, and still an edifice of rebar, mortar and steel not mature enough to be called a building.
5) Bharats Self-Employed Womens Association (SEWA) scheme has been put on hold.
6) Bharati-run vocational courses have been suspended.
7) The training of Afghan civilian personnel will not be imparted in Kabul though it may happen in India now (but is hampered by costs and budgetary constraints).
Bharat is clueless about Afghanistan and sees the country through Bollywood eyes. Most Bharatis think that the Pathans (as they are called in Delhi) are like Shahrukh Khan there to entertain the masses. The manner in which Bharat set about its Afghan project was as if it would be directing a Bollywood movie. Soft power of soap operas Saas Bhi Kabhi Bahu Thi (The Mother-in-Law Was Once the Daughter-in-Law), and a hospital and a road would supposedly transform the country into an Indian state never mind the fact that Bharat does not have a contiguous border with Afghanistan and never mind the fact that the Afghans (with or without the Taliban) are ferociously Anti-Indian and vociferously Anti-Hindu (the Pakistan factor not withstanding). Delusion is endemic in Delhi, insignificance is mistaken for reality. Clarity of short distance is seen as vision. Bharati pundits in South block, far removed from Kabul believe that their adored Bollywood dramas will prove decisive in winning a war in Afghanistan! It is amusing to see how many Bharati policy-makers who actually believe the crock that that is doled out about the significance of Bollywood in Kabul. The Mumbai paradigm cannot be used in Kabul.
Imagine a hospital without doctorsthat is what the Indira Gandhi institute in Kabul is. Children are diagnosed on TV monitors. The amount of frustration felt by the Afghan about this hospital can only be gaged by its empty halls, unvisited Emergency Center and desolate rooms.
The 150 kilometer Zaranj-Dilaram road is one of the most advertised pieces of disused carriageway in the world. Bharat has not lost an opportunity to tout it. Facts intrude to inform the engineers, that the road was unusable the week it was opened. Littered with potholes, all bridges have been blown up, there has been no maintenance of it since it was built, and the irony of the situation is that the Talibs control it. It was supposedly built to offer an alternate route to Kabulbypassing Pakistan. Today the parking lot is owned by the Anti-Indian Pakhtuns.
The Bharati attempt to build the Afghan parliament building is a case study in what not to do. Why would Bharat come up with a design of the parliament building which would not reflect Afghanistan rich Islamic past. Tied to the dream of secularism Delhi tried to ram a strange design down the throat of the Afghans, who balkedeven though it was free. After a national protest the design was changed, but the damage had been done. Instead of garnishing goodwill, Bharat ended up with antagonism and animosity.
Image: Afghan Parliament building: The construction of this potemkin village sort of building began in 2005 and in typical Bharati style, after 6 years, it is still a jumble of wire and steel. Construction has slowed down due to security concerns, and because Indians cannot operate in Kabul and the Talibs have threatened that the building will be blown up.
The end resultafter seven years, the building is a long way off before it can host the Afghan jirga. According to Peter Lee The Afghan parliament building is, as the writer says, greatly symbolic. Indeed, it is an almost perfect metaphor for Indias Afghanistan project Because its not built.
The Bharati attempt to interfere in the Afghan elections has boomeranged. Instead of supporting the Indian educated Karzai, the Bharatis sided with the Americans and supported Abdullah Abdullah who lost the elections. Karzai then threw in his lot with the Pakistanis who had supported him.
For the longest time the Bharatis had been opposed to a reconciliation with the Talibs. This ran contrary to Afghan sensitives who voted for a national consensus with the Talibs. This has left them out in left field. Premier Manmohan retreated and this is the best he could when faced by the Karzai quote the Pakistan consensus in necessary.
Analysts blame no one but India for its plight. It is a victim of its own bad policies. In what seems like proto-history now, Delhi supported the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and Delhi has also supported the American occupation. It was wrong on both counts. Afghan know that Pakistan helped them defeat the USSR, and they also know that Pakistan joined the US venture, only reluctantly and only when faced with Armitages threat of being bombed to the stone age. More than 6 million Afghans were born in Pakistan, and they travel freely across the country. Their kith and kin are in important positions in the Pakistani government and the Pakistani Army. The Afghan Pakhtun and otherwise know Pakistan like the back of their handmany know Pakistani cities better then own villages where their forefathers lived for centuries. More than 3 million refuse to go back to Afghanistan. The Afghans have changed the demographics of Balochistanhence the rumors about the Quetta Shurra in Quetta. Bharat has no capacity to compete with Pakistan either in religion or geography.
Analysts also say that Bharat was not assertive enough in Kabul, lacked the confidence to to deal with the events and Hindustan was overwhelmed by Iran and Pakistan both of which had colossal constituencies in the country. Bharat could have gotten itself a solid foothold in Afghanistan, but it antagonized the two peoples who could helped it get that foothold. Delhi tried to circumvent Islamabad, and then avoid Tehran. Both saw Delhi as a rival and thus opposed every move that Delhi made.
Admittedly, Bharats Incredible India has had some limited success in hiding the plight of the toiling masses but Bollywoods gloss can go only so far. Visitors to Bharat are appalled by the wall of unimaginable penury that hit them right at the airport. Bharats sophisticated marketing prowess works on powerpoint slides, but falls flat on its face as soon as the rubber meets the road. No amount of rhetoric can turn Afghanistan as the next tourist destination for 2011 hippies.
Bharati academics missed the boat and are now once again trying to drive a wedge between the Americans and the Pakistanis in the Post-OBL era. They think that they will be able to portray Pakistan in a bad light over OBL. They forget that a large portion of the Afghan population still has positive feelings for those who support him. So the Pakistanis are at the opposite end of the spectrum.
There is a new kid on the block! Delhi fails to see the Big Dragon in the room. Maybe the pundits in Delhi miss the point that China has a touch-point border with Afghanistan and now is ready to play a role there. The Pakistanis have been urging Hamid Karzai to dump the US and instead look to Pakistan and China for a peace deal with the Taliban and rebuilding the economy. Bharat cannot offer Kabul that, and the US wont be there to help the Bharatis.
As Peter Lee says Despite hopeful prognostications, it is quite likely that the emergence of a reconciled-taliban Kabul government through Pakistans mediation is not going to be a good thing for India.