How could the IAF have countered PAF's Operation Swift Retort?

[Lincoln]

Recent analysis done by western think tank ASPI showed the misses were less than 200m from balakot target
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/

Some missiles hit near the village which was over 1000m.

 

[Point 5310]

In short you are admitting that India and its military failed on both days 26 February 2019 and 27 February 2019

Good. There is no shame in admitting the truth

Sll I am saying we achieved objectives on both days.

Some missiles hit near the village which was over 1000m.

No missile fell near village but as you can see in ASPI report one bomb fell near a hutment close to camp.

 

[Areesh]

Sll I am saying we achieved objectives on both days.

No you admitted that you failed on both days

and I appreciate that at least you have started to say truth

 

[PakSword]

OPERATION SWIFT RETORT - PAF's RIPOSTE TO IAF's BALAKOT STRIKE

So starting a new discussion on how the PAF's Operation Swift Retort was conducted as per available information in Indian social media, primarily twitter. There have been a couple of ex IAF Air Marshals (AM Chopra and AVM Subramaniun) and a junior officer (S/L Sameer Joshi) who have spoken on same. I for one after moderating all their tweets/ articles over the last couple of months, will summarise my understanding on the info I have been able to access post that. The larger question once I give my views is -

HOW COULD THE IAF HAVE COUNTERED OPERATION SWIFT RETORT?

Operation Swift Retort - 27 February 2019 - 10:00 to 10:30 AM - Jammu & Kashmir

The PAF launched Op Swift Retort post the IAF's strikes at Balakot. As per my understanding, they had the following strategic aims -

1. Strike back against the IAF to regain honour for Pakistan lost in 26 February strike by Balakot and stabilise the domestic negative PR
2. Demonstrate a capability of equivalence firepower to IAF
3. Not let IAF make this the new normal after Pulwama
4. Ensure no escalation by this action, but still achieve its tactical aim

The Tactical aims were -

1. Get numerical superiority to achieve air superiority for the duration of Op
2. Ensure the strike went through with ease
3. Prevent IAF CAP from exploiting any actionable window against the PAF's action
4. Shoot down IAF Su-30s
5. Ensure No PAF Aircraft is lost.

Conduct

The PAF appeared in an organised and numerically superior manner on the western border between J&K and the P_O_K, taking the IAF forces by surprise.

There were 8 IAF aircraft available during 1000-1030 hours, which responded back.

The PAF had over 25 aircraft - 12 plus F-16, 8 + JF-17 and rest being the MiRIII/Vs. The IAF had 2 Su 30s near Dharamshala, 2 Mirage 2000 (upgraded) in N Kashmir and 4 M21 Bison at Srinagar CAP.

The 9 Sqn F 16s climbed to maintain 35-40,000 feet going supersonic in the area between Nowshera and Poonch, staying 15-20 km inside Azad Kashmir. They launched AMRAAM missiles against IAF Su-30s, who were approaching them. THE AMRAAMS were launched from within P-O-K, thus violating the previous set ROE between India and Pakistan. But what the heck, this was war. These missiles were possibly fired at 80-90 km.

To the North 4 JF-17 took on the 2 IAF Mirages, got into a HOT/ COLD tactical play at BVR ranges. Both sides waiting to exploit positional advantage

The Sukhois avoided the AMRAAMs with tactical cranking and chaff, but could not launch their missiles due to kinematic ability of R77 for a snap up launch. They went COLD as and when required, now being assisted by the IAF AWACs and the IACCS

The PAF in the meanwhile launched H4 SOW by Mirage III/Vs of 15 Sqn PAF. A total of 4 - 6 may have been launched.

The second JF-17 formation with REKs was thwarted by the Mirages to the north and dropped their payload in haste and turned back

A Saab 2000 ERIEYE gave good command and control to the PAF formation, while the IACCS was guiding and keeping the IAF Mirages and Sukhois clear of the numerically superior F16 threat

The IAF scrambled 4 M21s from Srinagar to counter any attempt by PAF to cross the border

The IAF Mirages did not fire at the JF17s and the strike to keep their BVR strength for a possible ingress by the numerically superior force towards Srinagar

2 IAF M21s meanwhile crossed the LOC somewhere in Naoshera.

The PAF was surprised by this ingress and reacted to the threat

Abhinandan, meanwhile locked onto a PAF jet and fired his R-73, just before he was shot down by a PAF AMRAAM from aF16

The IAF claimed that a F 16 had been shot down.

Meanwhile 2 MiG29UPG and 2 more Su 30 were also reaching the Op area to support the IAF's defence

The PAF F16s withdrew to more than 30-40 km and with no further threat for the time being, the IAF Mirages and the Sukhois landed back, handing over to the

PAF called off the OP

____________________

Tactical Pros for PAF

1. Surprise and numerical superiority
2. Ensured partial strike success
3. Kept IAF CAP at bay
4. Shot down Abhi
5. Jamming and control of battle

Tactical Cons for PAF

1. Could not get a kill on the Sukhois with over 5 fired AMRAAMs
2. Range errors with SOW - not as per claimed figures - No video shown
3. Lapse in checking Abhi till late
4. Possible shooting down of a PAF aircraft by Abhi

__________________________

Now, we know that the IAF has been lambasted on this forum with great effect with words being used as 'Humiliated' to further worse adjectives. But IMO, the IAF did well to hold its own with the limited force which was there.

However, the PAF is the clear winner here, achieving its strategic aim of putting a brake to the IAF offensive spirit, thanks to the misadventures of Abhinandan. Tactically however, the PAF's Op SR did not go as per plan and exposed a number of issues, which have been covered above.

The PAF however, was not willing to escalate, hence did not put its heart and soul into the conduct of the Op. Also later claims of a HVT at the strike sites don't hold merit because striking a target with a HVT would have escaped the situation. So we can presume that it had no knowledge of same before, contrary to other claims later. Also, why the range errors when it wanted to demonstrate the capability? Why no video release of this capability?

___________________________

But certainly, the IAF has more to ponder over post this OP

1. Why no warning of large segment strike by PAF
2. Why not enough platforms to counter the PAF
3. Fratricide at Srinagar - loss of command and control
4. No launch against PAF?

THESE ARE THE QUESTIONS I HAVE IN MIND WHEN I AM CRITICAL OF THE IAF's PERFORMANCE.

So the larger question I ask you all is

HOW COULD THE IAF HAVE COUNTERED OPERATION SWIFT RETORT?

Would be grateful if we could focus on the question. Would be happy if folks participate in this.

Thanks

India, with its current inventory, couldn't have done much. Pakistan knew her strengths and Indian weaknesses. They planned, warned India, conducted the strikes in broad daylight, killed a bird (official confirmation), didn't get hurt (international reliable sources), captured a pilot, denied India a reason to retaliate back and earn international brownie points by returning the pilot, and moved on..

India on the other hand: still licking the wounds..

This is a common man perspective in Pakistan and around the globe... What Indians believe, or what they want to believe is not important.

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

Plus I think we should add a Tejas squadron in Srinagar.

Tejas will run out of fuel before reaching LOC.

 

[Zulfiqar]

That was error in my writing - they deployed chaff. Thank you for the correction



You remember what exactly happened then?

It was in Dec 2008 after below incident.

https://nation.com.pk/14-Dec-2008/paf-fighters-beat-back-indian-jets

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/iaf-violated-pakistan-air-space-forced-to-return.17612/

 

[SIPRA]

No missile fell near village but as you can see in ASPI report one bomb fell near a hutment close to camp.

The said report is showing only 3 impact sites, where the distance of impact point from "potential targets" vary from about 150 to 300 meters, according to the attached scale. I am not sure but there may be 1 more bomb, which fell further away. Though, it is not very important matter.

 

[Sidacca]

Recent analysis done by western think tank ASPI showed the misses were less than 200m from balakot target
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/

But initially you guys were claiming that it went inside roof made a hole killed 300 to 400 people and other four sided weak walls remain untouched...... Now you are arguing misses by this much misses by that much..... Lemme tell you the more you quickly come out of your bollywood fantasies the more will better for you and your nation

 

[Point 5310]

No you admitted that you failed on both days

and I appreciate that at least you have started to say truth

I never admitted anything of that sort.
You are only seeing what you wish to see.

 

[Ultima Thule]

I never admitted anything of that sort.
You are only seeing what you wish to see.

but you lot of countrymen said this here on PDF

 

[Sidacca]

India has been badly affected by bollywood they immediately decided to make abhi a hero and announced that he shot a f16 before get shot..... A pure bollywood case.... But but they forgot that he is only carrying four missiles which could be recovered as well.... Very poorly directed movie they should have declare su30 for that f16 kill lolz

 

[Areesh]

I never admitted anything of that sort.
You are only seeing what you wish to see.

You admitted:

1. IAF failed to hit targets
2. IAF didn't anticipate reaction from Pakistan and hence pathetic performance by IAF

Thanks for admitting failure on both days since that is the truth

 

[Ultima Thule]

Recent analysis done by western think tank ASPI showed the misses were less than 200m from balakot target
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indias-strike-on-balakot-a-very-precise-miss/

I think the figure is around 150

yaar you missed the target building is still standing look of your countrymen post he give the links @Jochen Peiper

 

[Mrc]

While IAF has shown exploded part of an Amraam which exploded by eliminating its target (su 30)

Where are the 5 un exploded amraams that IAF supposedly dodged???

Is there not even one person in 1 billion who can ask such a simple question??

 

[Areesh]

Where are the 5 un exploded amraams that IAF supposedly dodged???

Bharati story has more holes than modi has after thrashing of last 5 years by Pakistan


So better leave it