Has Saudi Arabia declared "Oil Price War"?

[al-Hasani]

This is obviously a closely calculated move whose ultimate consequences are yet to be known. I am not sure where I stand myself but that's not strange given the fact that I do not know about the calculations that have caused this policy etc. Despite that I do not believe that KSA would be willing to make such a "gamble" without reason.

All I know is that KSA has the most healthy account balance in the world and that it is the biggest surplus nation together with China. Not strange then that those two countries trade volume and relations on all fronts (nuclear energy, military, politics, economy etc.) are growing at a high rate each year. Moreover the Saudi Arabian economy is growing at a very fast rate contrary to most other economic powers. In fact if I am not wrong then we have been predicated to have the highest growth rate from 2015 until 2025 among all the G-20 Major Economies Member States.

People speak like there is no shale oil reserves in KSA. They are wrong. In fact KSA has one of the biggest reserves as well and most of the country is yet to be explored due to the high costs of such operations.

Anyway for each year the non-oil/gas/natural resources portion of the Saudi Arabian economy is growing at a very high level on a yearly basis (about 8% if I remember correctly) and there is no sign of that changing anytime soon rather the opposite according to all economic reports out there whether local or international.

In the future I am also very hopeful of the GCC or the Arabian Peninsula as a whole uniting into 1 country. This way the enormous natural riches of those countries will be centralized and belong to 1 federal state. Of course the West and everyone else (almost) is not interested in that but if certain things change there is little they can do. That's another discussion though.

Anyway regarding shale oil extraction. It's true that innovations in drilling and hydraulic technologies have opened new supplies of shale oil and gas for the US and other countries but there is good reason to believe that the "shale boom" may be overstated.

Firstly the processes are costly. Chemicals and water are pumped underground, requiring the disposal of millions of liters wastewater. The new wells have a shorter lifespan and the scale of additional investment required to keep the boom going appears unsustainable giving the absent technological breakthroughs as of now.
A secure market requires the right geology, government regulations, technical expertise and funding. Also without further technological development, the shale oil revolution could be a passing trend that simply delays the search and development of alternative fuels that stem climate change.

@Full Moon

That's my quick take on it.

 

[ResurgentIran]

It's obvious, there has been some sort of secret agreement between the West and the GCC especially the KSA to pull the oil prices down before the end of Iranian nuclear talks to force it to kneel down to their demands regarding it's nuclear program and it's policy in the Arab world. Russia comes as the second target here to force her to soften her tone in Ukraine and Syria So it's basically hitting more than one bird with the same stone. The third bird here is helping oil importing allies especially Egypt.

Very smart and effective policy that will surely work out in getting Iran down.

Iran has been absorbing sanctions for 30-40 years and learned to adapt, so its childish (but cute) if you think your little "oil weapon" is going to be a blunt enough knife to force Iran to accept the West's demand in nuclear negotiations.
News flash: The West position in the nuclear dossier is moving closer and closer to that of Iran's.
10 years ago their position was no enrichment. Now they have put on the table 5000 centrifuges and a so called "sunset clause" of 10 years.
Meaning after 10 years the agreement would expire and Iran would be treated as any other signatory of the NPT. Ie it can move full steam ahead with a full scale industrial enrichment program.
But we think we can extract more concessions because Obama is more desperate to get a deal than Iran, juding from reports.

Lol at your puny oil weapon theory
Besides, in the long term this will not be a bad thing for us. It will compel us to move away from oil-economy.

 

[Falcon29]

This has nothing to do with Iran. It's US/Saudi coordination against Russia. Russia can't sustain itself like this. And it's only asset left will be natural gas. So now there is drilling in Mediterranean. If Israel sells that gas to Europe than Russia is in big trouble. It would force region to shift alliances. Turkey and Russia would have to become allied and it could turn into a bad war. Russia may have to take military option in Europe due to ongoing scheme against it. The missile systems are there to enforce European domination over area and drain Russian economy then divide it up.

So Russia would have to take preemptive action.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Good step this would help the world to come out of recession faster.

 

[al-Hasani]

This has nothing to do with Iran. It's US/Saudi coordination against Russia. Russia can't sustain itself like this. And it's only asset left will be natural gas. So now there is drilling in Mediterranean. If Israel sells that gas to Europe than Russia is in big trouble. It would force region to shift alliances. Turkey and Russia would have to become allied and it could turn into a bad war. Russia may have to take military option in Europe due to ongoing scheme against it. The missile systems are there to enforce European domination over area and drain Russian economy then divide it up.

So Russia would have to take preemptive action.

Would the foreign minister of KSA have met with the foreign minister of Russia last Friday in Russia if this was a war on Russia? Who says that this is a war on anybody? It's probably just a regime move to get a bigger share of the oil and that it hurts Russia and others in the process (some conflicting reports about that) might just be a coincidence. Large portions of the American media has since September (make a quick google search) claimed that this move was a move against the supposed shale oil of the US. Read post number 32.

 

[Falcon29]

Would the foreign minister of KSA have met with the foreign minister of Russia last Friday in Russia if this was a war on Russia? Who says that this is a war on anybody? It's probably just a regime move to get a bigger share of the oil and that it hurts Russia and others in the process (some conflicting reports about that) might just be a coincidence. Large portions of the American media has since September (make a quick google search) claimed that this move was a move against the supposed shale oil of the US. Read post number 32.

Mate diplomacy is meaningless. European nations and US president also recently met with Russian PM. I don't see any intention of war by KSA. I believe the US asked KSA to make this move. However KSA will not be involved in any such war if it took place in the future. But, this is effective playing card used by Western world against Russia along with the natural gas aspect. I doubt they want to turn into it a war anytime soon but they have the card to play whenever they wish to. And Russia knows what's coming but it can't take counter measures. Besides trying to increase cooperation with China but most importantly it's going to be forced into military measures in Europe.

 

[marbella]

69$ a barrel. da me mas gasolina....

 

[al-Hasani]

Mate diplomacy is meaningless. European nations and US president also recently met with Russian PM. I don't see any intention of war by KSA. I believe the US asked KSA to make this move. However KSA will not be involved in any such war if it took place in the future. But, this is effective playing card used by Western world against Russia along with the natural gas aspect. I doubt they want to turn into it a war anytime soon but they have the card to play whenever they wish to. And Russia knows what's coming but it can't take counter measures. Besides trying to increase cooperation with China but most importantly it's going to be forced into military measures in Europe.

Everything in this region is very confusing and often very disturbing. I just hope that our regime knows what they are doing and that they are not going to hurt the country just to please others and create unnecessary enemies that could be potential allies and partners.

Anyway as everything else it's a game between the US and their allies/proxies/ (or whatever you want to call them) and the other side which is Russia/China and their allies/proxies call them what you want.

We are caught in between. The ME needs to unite. At least us Arabs. Reading about the stuff that is going on is just…well….See my "status update".

Well at least we did not elect our rulers so as a people we cannot be blamed for anything that our rulers do...

 

[Falcon29]

Evertying of this region is very confusing and often very disturbing. I just hope that our regime knows what they are doing and that they are not going to hurt the country just to please others and create unnecessary enemies that could be potential allies and partners.

Anyway as everything else it's a game between the US and their allies/proxies/ (or whatever you want to call them) and the other side which is Russia/China and their allies/proxies call them what you want.

It is confusing because we don't have dominance in the region. Our states are largely on their own and it's hard to get us united around a common cause. Arabs will not form major alliance without having a common cause, and being Arab isn't enough. It also wouldn't make sense to disclude other countries such as Turkey in the region. I think we have no choice in the future but to form one republic or something along those lines and Islam is what could unite the people but that won't happen until they become more desperate.

 

[HAIDER]

Recent Russian AF move of entering EU fly zone mean something. Its warning for lots of countries.

 

[al-Hasani]

It is confusing because we don't have dominance in the region. Our states are largely on their own and it's hard to get us united around a common cause. Arabs will not form major alliance without having a common cause, and being Arab isn't enough. It also wouldn't make sense to disclude other countries such as Turkey in the region. I think we have no choice in the future but to form one republic or something along those lines and Islam is what could unite the people but that won't happen until they become more desperate.

Well if you know what happened roughly 100 years ago and the promises that the Brits made (they are in many ways the root of much evil in the ME and the world) then they broke all promises and it was their plan all along to leave a fractured Arab world and not 1 united Arab state in the ME that would eventually have attracted other parts of the Arab world to unite similarly. As they promised. They also lied in regards to Palestine. All because they wanted our riches and strategic position. Like many other invaders before.

I know that as soon as you are criticizing anything you are being labelled or put into boxes and this kind of thinking is also the problem. Anyone that is against the regimes is either an islamist, traitor or Western agent. You know what thinking I am talking about. Same with those that support the regimes. What about all of those in between like me? Where do we stand? We are the majority I believe.

Well, Islam and everything else we share in common. Culture, language, literature, history be it ancient Semitic one or Islamic etc. We have similar aspirations. Look at Lebanon for instance. Probably the most mixed country in the ME and one of the most complex. Go ask a Shia, Sunni, Christian, Arab, Armenian etc. what they hope for and the answers will be similar in terms of changes. They might have different ideologies but they all want similar social, political, economic etc. changes.
Anyway this topic is not about Arab unity but it is understandable that we touch on this.

It annoys me that people in power cannot see what us ordinary folks can see. What their people want. Or maybe they can but don't want to fulfill those hopes or aspirations or maybe even worse they are not allowed to pursue those dreams/plans because of third parties. I tend to think that it is a very unpleasant mixture.

There are also the internal conflicts. Islamist vs secularists, regime supporters vs. those that do not support status quo etc. It's one big mind-****. Excuse me language.

And our enemies are laughing. Read anti-Muslims and anti-Arabs hellbent on hurting us and our interests. Then those same idiots wonder why some people turn to extreme methods. **** me the ignorance is big. I am especially talking to some of the Western public some of them users on PDF (Brits and 1-2 American users). Very annoying ones.

 

[Falcon29]

Well if you know what happened roughly 100 years ago and the promises that the Brits made (they are in many ways the root of much evil in the ME and the world) then they broke all promises and it was their plan all along to leave a fractured Arab world and not 1 united Arab state in the ME that would eventually have attracted other parts of the Arab world to unite similarly. As they promised. They also lied in regards to Palestine. All because they wanted our riches and strategic position. Like many other invaders before.

Well said.

I know that as soon as you are criticizing anything you are being labelled or put into boxes and this kind of thinking is also the problem. Anyone that is against the regimes is either an islamist, traitor or Western agent. You know what thinking I am talking about. Same with those that support the regimes. What about all of those in between like me? Where do we stand? We are the majority I believe.

People like you are stuck between rock and hard place. I know many people who feel let down by Arab 'spring' ever since they saw what happened in Syria they prefer to keep the status-quo elsewhere. I am in your position as well although sometimes I do take explicit positions more than others.

Well, Islam and everything else we share in common. Culture, language, literature, history be it ancient Semitic one or Islamic etc. We have similar aspirations. Look at Lebanon for instance. Probably the most mixed country in the ME and one of the most complex. Go ask a Shia, Sunni, Christian, Arab, Armenian etc. what they hope for and the answers will be similar in terms of changes. They might have different ideologies but they all want similar social, political, economic etc. changes.
Anyway this topic is not about Arab unity but it is understandable that we touch on this.

We have many things in common but nothing can unite us in a genuine way. I suspect if we achieve some sort of unity we will be attacked on a large scale. And our minorities wouldn't want to take part in that as it will be devastating. It's better to recruit our own people and provide protection for minorities like in the past.

It annoys me that people in power cannot see what us ordinary folks can see. What their people want. Or maybe they can but don't want to fulfill those hopes or aspirations or maybe even worse they are not allowed to pursue those dreams/plans because of third parties. I tend to think that it is a very unpleasant mixture.

I agree, our leaders no longer connect with our people. And our people know this, however our leaders offer us quality life in exchange for tolerating them and it has been this way for a while.This is why we have some individuals attracted to extremism since they connect to their leaders and feel inspired by them. We really do lack leadership and we have a sense of suspicion to anyone.

There are also the internal conflicts. Islamist vs secularists, regime supporters vs. those that do not support status quo etc. It's one big mind-****. Excuse me language.

It is and this is way I've laid off a little but always return to update myself on developments because we all actually care. However, getting to your point it seems like we are denied this aspect in our lives. I would get involved in politics if it was possible. In the West no, for obvious reasons. But in our region it is either being a servant to a regime or joining Islamist party which can be dangerous. It's sad that it is a risk to ones life to promote anything related to Islam/justice. Not just for Muslims but for non-Muslims. It appears like a war on Islam because it's largely Muslims trying to alter status-quo.

And our enemies are laughing. Read anti-Muslims and anti-Arabs hellbent on hurting us and our interests. Then those same idiots wonder why some people turn to extreme methods. **** me the ignorance is big. I am especially talking to some of the Western public some of them users on PDF (Brits and 1-2 American users). Very annoying ones.

Same thoughts as you, but I feel more Westerns are understanding our plights. It depends what enviroment you put yourself in,if you follow liberal sources you will get lots of people who oppose right wing type of thinking and it is healther enviroment for both sides to get feelings across. But, right wing enviroment is completely intolerant and have a grudge against us. You can't reason with them and unfortunately they have influence in the world superpower. This is why it requires our leaders to take a new direction and if it means showdown with West than so be it. We aren't living under this bullshit anymore where our lives are wrecked while they profit off oil. They should have nothing.

Some conservatives are rational though. Like the Steve person from UK.

 

[al-Hasani]

Well said.



People like you are stuck between rock and hard place. I know many people who feel let down by Arab 'spring' ever since they saw what happened in Syria they prefer to keep the status-quo elsewhere. I am in your position as well although sometimes I do take explicit positions more than others.



We have many things in common but nothing can unite us in a genuine way. I suspect if we achieve some sort of unity we will be attacked on a large scale. And our minorities wouldn't want to take part in that as it will be devastating. It's better to recruit our own people and provide protection for minorities like in the past.



I agree, our leaders no longer connect with our people. And our people know this, however our leaders offer us quality life in exchange for tolerating them and it has been this way for a while.This is why we have some individuals attracted to extremism since they connect to their leaders and feel inspired by them. We really do lack leadership and we have a sense of suspicion to anyone.


It is and this is way I've laid off a little but always return to update myself on developments because we all actually care. However, getting to your point it seems like we are denied this aspect in our lives. I would get involved in politics if it was possible. In the West no, for obvious reasons. But in our region it is either being a servant to a regime or joining Islamist party which can be dangerous. It's sad that it is a risk to ones life to promote anything related to Islam/justice. Not just for Muslims but for non-Muslims. It appears like a war on Islam because it's largely Muslims trying to alter status-quo.



Same thoughts as you, but I feel more Westerns are understanding our plights. It depends what enviroment you put yourself in,if you follow liberal sources you will get lots of people who oppose right wing type of thinking and it is healther enviroment for both sides to get feelings across. But, right wing enviroment is completely intolerant and have a grudge against us. You can't reason with them and unfortunately they have influence in the world superpower. This is why it requires our leaders to take a new direction and if it means showdown with West than so be it. We aren't living under this bullshit anymore where our lives are wrecked while they profit off oil. They should have nothing.

Some conservatives are rational though. Like the Steve person from UK.

Actually it s rather bad position to be in. Why? Because you become hopeless. I have days where I do not care about anything related with the ME and other days it's the direct opposite. I think that we can easily get pulled into those two "boxes" depending on what is going on. We should create a third "box" instead. Whatever that might be. My solution is a mixture of Islamic thoughts and Arab nationalism (not the one we knew before with socialism etc.) or call it Arab brotherhood and ideas relevant to our current world and reality. Inclusiveness, independent though, focus on education, science etc. I have explained it in detail before so I will leave it just there.

Well, I don't agree with this unless you are talking about our leaders. I think that a shared religion (Islam) by large, culture, language, literature, ancient and modern history, something as non-important as cuisine, mentality etc. is by large similar. We actually are extremely similar when you think about the fact that we are the second biggest ethnicity on earth and inhabiting a huge geographical area. If we took the best from that it could succeed easily. But the problem with that is division. I mean what can we expect when even some Islamists are waging wars against each other or secularists (liberals vs socialists etc.).

Me and @Syrian Lion agreed on much regarding the Arab world last time we discussed (outside of Syria and the role of the Iranian regime) but he seems to be a fan of socialism etc. which is totally opposite to what I stand for which is liberal-conservatism. I am not sure what emphasis he places on culture, traditions, religion, FOREIGN policy, aspirations etc. either. Other than being an Arab nationalist. Whatever it means in his case in reality I do not know? Syrian hegemony. Just an example.

Exactly. You described it very well. Although the rulers now try to become closer to the people and pamper some as they saw what happened with the "Arab spring" but my fear is that they will return to old habits as soon as the neighborhood calms down. My hope is our current generation and the next one. Status quo cannot continue. I refuse to believe this. Anyway instead of sitting in coffee shops and talking big we should do something. Or the locals at least but it is easier said than done…

You are spot on again Hazzy.

Actually that Steve guy is a clown IMO and a anti-Muslim and anti-Arab racist.

Yes, some. Unfortunately none of them have any influence in the decision making. It all boils down to those in control of the US. Do they really want the best for us Arabs and people of the ME and Muslims? Based on what they are doing then obviously not.

 

[Azeri440]

. Russia is biggest energy supplier of EU. Reduce in price will badly hurt Russian economy . That is one of the reason Russia remove arm embargo on Pakistan. Plus Iran is already facing sanction , this will hardly hurt Iran. If that's the reason KSA would have done that way before. Right now US close to Iran nuclear deal, wouldn't do anything which can intimidate Iran and push the negotiation any further or beyond Obrama tenure.
Iran EU, US nuclear treaty will be biggest Democrates victory for coming election.
KSA won't get anything in return, accept security from IS. KSA is slowly losing the center age of energy, because US production high and successfully maintained the production on their own shores.
And if TAPI show some success then oil price will fall more.

You got no clue what you are talking about.

Russia is mainly the supplier of gas to Europe , gas prices are fixed with contracts and not affected.

 

[HAIDER]

You got no clue what you are talking about.

Russia is mainly the supplier of gas to Europe , gas prices are fixed with contracts and not affected.

That's your perception , but world perceive it different way .

"Lower oil prices could have lots of knock-on effects around the world. Take Russia, which depends on oil sales to bring in foreign currency. The Russian government has set its three-year budget with the expectation that oil prices would stay at $100 per barrel. A sustained fall in prices could seriously hurt the Russian economy and drive up deficits. (Note that Russia's economy was already teetering near recession territorythanks to a recent round of Western sanctions.)"