Has Lalu Prasad derailed Narendra Modi juggernaut in Bihar?

[Yaduveer]

Lalu Prasad is emerging one of the most interesting and intriguing characters in Indian politics. Having been reduced to four MPs in 2009, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) got battered further, getting only 22 MLAs in the 243-member Assembly in 2010. However, the political divorce between the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party has given Lalu Prasad enough elbow room to script a return from political wilderness. Despite his growing marginalisation in national politics, Lalu Prasad has shown remarkable political astuteness in staying alive in Bihar politics. Will he hit the jackpot in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls?

For 20 years, Bihar’s politics has been essentially bipolar, with Lalu Prasad representing one end, and forces opposed to him constituting the other end of the axis. At this stage, it seems that parties have taken a back seat and the electoral battle has boiled down to a triangular fight between three personalities — Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad and Narendra Modi. But spoiling the much-vaunted poll arithmetic of the JD (U) as well as the BJP is a resurgent RJD boss with the Yadavs once again rallying around him, both angry and sympathetic about his imprisonment, loss of MP status and disqualification from contesting.

To a large extent, the RJD’s recovery in poll battle against all odds has put Bihar National Democratic Alliance leaders in a panic and they have begun to realise the RJD is their enemy No.1 in the state. If Lalu Prasad-led RJD-Congress alliance is seeing a better chance for itself in comparison to 2009, it is because of the political equations that backed the BJP-JD(U) coalition is dead now. Also, it is easier for Lalu Prasad to play the caste card at an election time as he belongs to a dominant backward caste and has the personality to impose himself on his loyal following. Yadavs have consolidated solidly behind Lalu Prasad as they are fighting the elections for their political survival and to remain significant in the state’s politics.

“Every party is working on caste calculations in the state. Bihar is a deeply traditional society and it is very difficult to bring people out of their caste mindset. It was Nitish Kumar who brought the state back on track and worked hard for its overall development, but he failed to break the caste barriers in the state. Caste realities, instead of economic factors, continue to influence voters in the state. Lalu Prasad’s biggest achievement has been the empowerment of Yadavs and their climb up the social ladder. At the same time, Lalu Prasad is still a hero to many poor and backward castes as his rise from humble origins to chief minister was seen to give millions a voice,” observes Sunanda Banerjee, professor of political science at University of Patna.

The BJP’s biggest social engineering came when Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan crossed over to the NDA. Paswans constitute 6% of voters. The entry of Rashtriya Lok Samata Party chief Upendra Kushwaha, too, is aimed at wooing a particular caste (read Koeri). The entry of Ram Kripal Yadav was aimed at giving the party a Yadav face. Narendra Modi has displayed his backward caste origin, eyeing the OBCs who constitute approximately 60% of the state’s voters. A section of BJP leaders is hopeful that the 'Modi wave' might cut across the complicated layers of the state’s caste-based social order seeing Modi through finally. In 2009, Lalu Prasad managed to get over 19% of the votes against the JD(U)’s 22% and BJP’s 16%. His vote share came primarily from his traditional base — 14% Yadavs and 16% Muslims, besides a section of the upper caste Rajputs.

“It is not late recovery for the RJD in Bihar. It was in the reckoning from the very beginning since the Lok Sabha elections were announced and Narendra Modi became BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. In the backdrop of national polarisation between the BJP and Congress, any political party which got latched on to either the Congress or the BJP got revived. For instance, the LJP got revived because it attached itself to the BJP. In the same way the RJD got revived as it got latched on to the Congress. As there is some sort of bipolar thing which appeared at the national level that is in the reckoning in the context of Bihar too,” argues Shaibal Gupta, secretary of the Patna-based Asian Development Research Institute.

The saffron party’s game of polarisation gave a fresh lease of life to Lalu Prasad. On the ground, Muslims, fearful of polarisation in favour of Modi, are unifying behind Lalu Prasad. The main loser, ironically, may be Nitish Kumar, who broke off his alliance with the BJP over Modi in his bid to woo the 16% Muslim voters. From 2005 onwards, Nitish has been successful in making inroads into Lalu Prasad’s Muslim votes. At present, the Muslims feel the RJD leader’s secular credentials are more reliable. Of late, during his election rallies, Lalu Prasad stressed that he, as Bihar CM, had got Lal Krishna Advani arrested when he was on his rath yatra to Ayodhya.

“It seems that Lalu Prasad may pull off a big surprise with his tried-and-tested Muslim-Yadav formula in Bihar this time. The RJD's famed Muslim-Yadav combination is a vital electoral group that constituted Lalu-Rabri regime’s core strength for 15 long years through 1990s till 2005. Undoubtedly, the Nitish Kumar government did a good job as far as law and order and the state’s economic growth are concerned. However, after the JD(U)-BJP split, Nitish Kumar has been isolated and finds himself a corner in the state’s political arena," said Rajhans.

Will the Muslim bloc voting in favour of the RJD alienate large parts of the much bigger Hindu constituency? If the minority community votes as one bloc, it can tip the scales either way. Thus, generally speaking, can Lalu Prasad claim to have stopped the Narendra Modi juggernaut in Bihar? Come May 16, the picture will be clear.

Has Lalu Prasad derailed Narendra Modi juggernaut in Bihar? | Business Standard

 

[hunter_hunted]

Babua koi jeeta na jeeta lalu to jeeta ga

 

[Arya Desa]

Lalu is one of the sexiest guys I've ever seen, no homo.

 

[Yaduveer]

Lalu Plays Spoilsport for Bihar's Saffron Surge

Barely a month ago, when polls began in Bihar’s southern Gangetic plain, a powerful Narendra Modi wave was reportedly sweeping the state from the west to the east. By the last week of April and first week of May when elections and campaigning moved to the northern Gangetic terai region, bordering Nepal, an equally potent cross-current from the east to the west—a late Lalu Prasad surge led by minorities—seems to have mowed down the Modi wave. The locals call the former Modi lehar (wave) and the latter Lalu samikaran (alliance advantage).

How did the Modi wave get displaced by the Lalu samikaran in north Bihar? Where did the development plank of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) disappear? Which way will the polls head in the next two phases? What will be the final outcome?

Muslim Consolidation in Seemanchal

Much has been written about the Modi wave. In order to understand the nature of the late Lalu surge, let us focus on two regions separated by the turbulent Kosi river: Seemanchal to the east of the river and Mithilanchal to its west. Devastated by the Kosi, this is the poverty zone of Bihar thronged by minorities. Bordering West Bengal and almost touching Bangladesh, the four Seemanchal districts have the highest Muslim population in Bihar—Kishanganj (78 per cent), Katihar (43 per cent), Araria (41 per cent) and Purnia (37 per cent).

The first visible sign of minority consolidation started in Kishanganj where JD(U) candidate Aktraul Iman withdrew from the contest in favour of Mohammed Asrarul Haque, the sitting MP, fielded by the Congress, in order to prevent splitting of Muslim votes. This move, combined with Congress’s announcement of opening up of an Aligarh Muslim University centre in the region, is likely to ensure Haque’s victory against BJP candidate Dilip Kumar Jaiswal.

While this move embarrassed Nitish, especially since Iman had recently quit the RJD to join the JD(U), it has sent a strong symbolic message to the minorities across the region to consolidate their votes and arrest the Modi wave. In 2009, the BJP in alliance with the JD(U) had swept Araria, Katihar, Purnia and Bhagalpur. Today the strategic voting by Muslims in the region and the alliance among the RJD, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is clearly favouring NCP candidate Tariq Anwar in Katihar and RJD candidate Mohammed Taslimuddin in Araria. The RJD-Congress combine might even win some other seats in the region.

Advantage RJD in Mithilanchal

The hub of Mithilanchal, Darbhanga, was until recently associated with luscious lychees and Malda mangoes, magnificent palaces of Darbhanga Raj and the rich Mithila culture dominated by educated Brahmins. Not any more. Today the decaying city is associated with the drama of the arrest of Indian Mujahideen mastermind, the dreaded terrorist Yasin Bhatkal, and his associates.

Muslims, Brahmins and Yadavs are the three largest communities in Mithilanchal. In the past, the Congress would consecutively win with a Brahmin-Muslim-Dalit secular alliance. The social realignment of the 1990s transformed the
politics of north Bihar with Lalu’s RJD forming the formidable Muslim-Yadav alliance. With the decline of the Congress, the Brahmins moved over to the BJP.

The NDA had won almost all seats of Mithilanchal in 2009. Today, the minority consolidation in Mithilanchal combined with other factors is favouring RJD in key constituencies of Darbhanga and Madhubani.

Fatimi Forges Ahead of Azad in Darbhanga

With over 23 per cent Muslim votes, Muslim candidates have won in the past from Darbhanga since 1989. RJD’s Mohammed Ali Ashraf Fatmi’s hat-trick victories in 1991, 1996 and 1998 were only stopped by the BJP’s cricketer-turned-politician Kirti Azad’s googly in 1999. Since then it has been a ding-dong battle. Azad lost to Fatimi in 2004 but won the seat defeating Fatimi again in 2009. Although a Modi wave in the rest of the country is helping BJP candidates, in Darbhanga a triangular contest between these two and another Brahmin JD(U) candidate Sanjay Jha, nicknamed “Nitish Kumar’s man Friday”, has thrown a spanner in the BJP’s wheel. Fatimi has forged ahead in this fight between two Brahmins.

Madhubani’s Marginal Seat

The big fight in the neighbouring northern constituency of Madhubani is between BJP’s 75-year-old Hukumdeo Narain Yadav, the sitting MP from Madhubani, and RJD’s Abdul Bari Siddiqui, who also hails from Darbhanga. In 2009, Hukumdeo, supported by JD(U), had narrowly defeated Siddiqui by a little over 9,000 votes. Reason: the Congress’s star candidate Shakeel Ahmed had split the Muslim vote with Siddiqui. In 2014, the Congress and RJD alliance at one point had collapsed given Congress wanting to field Ahmed again from Madhubani. But Lalu prevailed during the negotiations and Siddiqui, a more popular candidate, contested. Although the JD(U) has fielded Ghulam Ghous from Madhubani, majority of the Muslims are voting for Siddiqui.

Lalu’s Sociology Trumps Nitish’s Development Agenda

“In 2009, a BJP-JD(U) alliance swept all the seats of Mithilanchal. Today the situation is reversed. The RJD-Congress-NCP alliance has recreated the formidable M-Y coalition. In contrast, the JD(U) candidates in all seats are cutting into BJP votes post the NDA divorce,” says Shivanand Tiwari, former Rajya Sabha MP from JD(U) who quit the party.

Whether Lalu’s Muslim-led late surge prevents Modi wave in the next two phases of polling in May in Bihar is an open issue. Nitish’s decision to divorce BJP has proved very costly for both the allies, more for Nitish than BJP. Moreover, Lalu’s political sociology has trumped Nitish’s development agenda in 2014.

Lalu Plays Spoilsport for Bihar's Saffron Surge -The New Indian Express

 

[Android]

Thanks to Paswan BJP is getting big number of dalit votes and will easily cross 20 mark in Bihar which I think is more than enough. Still I want Modi in last phase to try and break Yadav consolidation behind SP and RJD by praising them and invoking Hindutva and stating of Lord Krishna's connection with both Yadav clan of UP&Bihar and Dwarka city of Gujarat as he has done in past. BJP can reach 25 in Bihar and 60 in UP.

 

[livingdead]

lalu is a smart politician, you can never write him off.
muslim-yadav combo is going to be headache for bjp.

 

[Tshering22]

lalu is a smart politician, you can never write him off.
muslim-yadav combo is going to be headache for bjp.

Spoken like a true Indian. Caste/communal focused.

Under Lalu, Bihar was the official 'wild' zone in the country for years.

Whatever wee bit development came there, came during Nitish's first term as a CM. But now even that is being undone because of his ego problem for leaving NDA.

If Lalu wins there, then Biharis deserve the underdevelopment they see.

Even here in the article above, if this were to happen, Muslims will once again prove that they want underdevelopment, poverty anddivisiveness over development, electricity, education, water, infrastructure and jobs.

 

[Yaduveer]

The Muslim-Yadav combination is triggering a RJD comeback in Bihar

On April 21, speaking to NDTV, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav had boasted: "In all the 40 seats in Bihar, there seems to be a wave in our favour. I had not expected this. As the phases are progressing, the people's enthusiasm seems to be increasing." (RJD bouncing back in Bihar, but Lalu Prasad remains grounded)

Voting for seven Lok Sabha seats took place in Bihar on Wednesday. More than half of the state has voted, and Mr Yadav's RJD, which has forged a partnership with the Congress, is back in the reckoning, threatening to upset the electoral calculations of Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and the BJP, which were allies till about a year back. (India Votes 2014: full coverage)

In the 2009 general election, the JD (U)-BJP combine had swept all the seven constituencies which voted today, with Mr Kumar's party cornering five. The JD(U) faces a wipe-out, and the BJP's hopes of filling up the ground being ceded by its erstwhile ally have gone awry in the face of a resurgent RJD-Congress combine. (Lalu Prasad does it again; calls Narendra Modi 'executioner')

The seven constituencies facing polls in the seventh phase have a strong concentration of Muslims and Yadavs, the two communities which have rallied behind the RJD. In Madhepura, where Yadavs constitute a whopping 29 per cent of the electorate, JD(U) president Sharad Yadav faces the dreadful prospect of finishing third in a triangular race. The RJD's Pappu Yadav and Vijay Kumar Kushwaha of the BJP have emerged as the main contestants.

The Muslim-Yadav (MY) combine is also working well in Madhubani and Darbhanga, two seats which the BJP had won in 2009. (Lalu Prasad confident of his party's victory, says 'no Modi wave in Bihar')

The BJP, which is banking on the Modi wave to see a surge in its tally in Bihar, is pinning its hopes on a non-MY consolidation. It has stitched alliances with Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samata Party. The two outfits have strong pockets of influence among the Dalits and the Koeris, a numerically significant OBC.

The BJP had won 12 seats in 2009, and the RJD four. The Congress could win only two, while the JD(U) had walked away with half of the 40 seats.

 

[livingdead]

Spoken like a true Indian. Caste/communal focused.

Under Lalu, Bihar was the official 'wild' zone in the country for years.

Whatever wee bit development came there, came during Nitish's first term as a CM. But now even that is being undone because of his ego problem for leaving NDA.

If Lalu wins there, then Biharis deserve the underdevelopment they see.

Even here in the article above, if this were to happen, Muslims will once again prove that they want underdevelopment, poverty anddivisiveness over development, electricity, education, water, infrastructure and jobs.

lolz.. what I said is what is going to happen.. I have nothing to comment about what should happen.

 

[kbd-raaf]

LOL, the Modi/BJP wave is strongest in Bihar as corroborated by many.

RJD comeback. lol.

 

[Tshering22]

lolz.. what I said is what is going to happen.. I have nothing to comment about what should happen.

This time it is a bit uncertain. But honestly, the only reason for Bihar to be called Bihar is Biharis themselves.

I am not blaming you mate.

 

[Android]

Situation is ripe in West Bengal for BJP's grand entry with anti incumbency against TMC at all time high and dark days of CPM still fresh in peoples mind its ideal situation for BJP and Modi to go in for a kill. Campaign hard aggressively and go all out.

 

[Yaduveer]

RJD chief Lalu Prasad's march aided by not just MY but also Rajputs


While it is well known that Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal draws its strength from its core vote bank of Yadavs and Muslims, the party also gets the support of a large section of the powerful Rajput community. Even as RJD's rivals accuse Lalu of playing caste politics and indulging in minority appeasement, the former Bihar chief minister has very assiduously cultivated the Rajput community too.

In fact out of the four MPs that the party had in the outgoing 15th Lok Sabha, three were Rajputs with the fourth being Lalu himself before he was convicted and sent to jail in a fodder scam case resulting in his disqualification from Parliament. The party's three Rajput MP Prabhunath Singh from Maharajganj, Vaishali's Raghuvansh Prasad Singh and Jagadanand Singh from Buxar are leaving no stones unturned to ensure that the party bounces back with a vengeance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Bihar.

Faced with a strong Bharatiya Janata Party and the development image of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the RJD chief was forced to play his cards very carefully knowing fully well that if he fails to bag a large chunk of seats, his political survival would be at stake after having being mauled in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections and 2010 Bihar Assembly elections.

Out of the four MPs that RJD has in the outgoing 15th Lok Sabha, three are Rajputs.
In the next two phases of polling in Bihar, Lalu's MY combine will also have a potent R (Rajput) factor with it making it an extremely formidable combination.

On May 7 voting will take place in Sheohar, Sitamarhi, Muzaffarpur, Maharajganj, Saran, Hajipur and Ujiarpur. The RJD won Saran and Maharajganj in the 2009 election with Lalu bagging the first by a margin of 51,815 and the late Uma Shanker Singh emerging as the winner in the second by a narrow margin of 2,797 votes. Incidentally Uma Shanker Singh had defeated Prabhunath Singh, who was with the Janata Dal United then.

Later Prabhunath Singh, a leader known for his strong arm tactics, later quit the JDU following differences with Nitish Kumar and joined the RJD. After Uma Shanker Singh's death on January 24, 2013, he was nominated to contest from Maharajganj against JDU candidate and Bihar Education Minister PK Shahi and Congress's Jitendra Swami, the son of Uma Shanker Singh.

But with the JDU-BJP alliance already on the verge of breakup, Prabhunath Singh trounced Shahi by a huge margin of over 1,37,000 votes. Singh's massive win was the result of the Muslim-Yadav vote bank combining with the Rajputs.

Now as the elections enter the home stretch, the same combination has ensured that a confident Lalu is eyeing many more seats riding on the Muslim-Yadav-Rajput combine.

RJD leaders in Saran, neighbouring Maharajganj, from where Lalu's wife and former Bihar chief minister Rabri Devi is facing a tough contest against BJP's Rajiv Pratap Rudy are confident that Prabhunath Singh's influence will ensure that a large number of Rajput votes go to the RJD. Even BJP workers admit that Rudy, himself a Rajput, does not have the hold over his community the way Singh has.

Similarly the much respected Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, who has won five consecutive elections from Vaishali, is one whom Lalu's trusts very much. The mild-mannered Raghuvansh Prasad Singh's popularity cuts across the caste and community barrier.

The RJD is hopeful that both Prabhunath Singh and Raghuvansh Prasad Singh along with Buxar MP Jagadanand Singh will ensure that Rajputs back RJD candidates in all 13 Bihar seats where voting will take place on May 7 and 12. With the MY combine aggressively behind Lalu, the Rajput votes gives the RJD a big edge over its rivals.

RJD chief Lalu Prasad's march aided by not just MY but also Rajputs - IBNLive

 

[Android]

https://twitter.com/x/status/463637841235296256

 

[Yaduveer]

Even BJP is saying about Rise of Lalu.. Lolz

BJP assessment: Lalu’s stock on the rise in Bihar

An internal assessment by the BJP for Bihar has indicated the rise of Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), mostly at the cost of the Janata Dal (United) that could be headed for its worst performance in recent years.

The analysis is in line with the findings of several independent surveys.

After Wednesday’s fourth round of elections in Bihar – the polling got over in 27 of the 40 seats – the BJP’s assessment indicates a significant shift of the Muslim vote towards Lalu Prasad while signalling cracks in his OBC vote bank, particularly the Yadavs. An alliance with the Congress, which wasn’t the case in 2009, is also helping the RJD.


“Last time, the RJD got four seats and the Congress won two. Their combined tally may double this time,” a BJP leader told HT.

The BJP, however, is confident that its figure (along with its two allies) could be around 25 seats while the JD(U) would get only three seats. The BJP and JD(U), in alliance in 2009, won 12 and 20 seats respectively.

This time, the BJP has forged an alliance with Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which has fielded seven candidates, and backward leader Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, which is contesting three seats.

“Barring Muslims, every other section is supporting us. There are indications of a section of MBC and Maha Dalit votes coming to the BJP,” another BJP leader said.

The leader admitted that the BJP’s tally would have been higher if Nitish had got a major chunk of minority votes, making it a triangular contest. But the JD(U) has been practically relegated to the third position on most of the seats.

BJP assessment: Lalu’s stock on the rise in Bihar - Hindustan Times