Has China "crossed the multiple-warhead Rubicon"?

[Solomon2]

You just prove my point. In 1970s, Soviets didn't nuke us wasn't because we were under the protection of the American nuclear umbrella...

They didn't think of it that way. Instead, the U.S. succeeded in creating an atmosphere of uncertainty as to what the U.S. would do if the USSR attacked China with nuclear weapons. (according to Kissinger & Dobrynin's memoirs.)

Among themselves, the 90%-dead-but-100,000,000-left-alive argument was how the Communist Party justified its position to the Soviet military, the context being that the USSR could then expect a Chinese invasion of Siberia and the Soviet Far East. (quoted from a lecture by a political commissar to Soviet officers in the book MiG Pilot. I'd give you the page number but a Chinese student borrowed my book and never returned it.)

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Of course they were not certains what US would act...because in a nuclear exchange back in 1970s between USSR and PRC, in result PRC would certainly get annihilated, but it would nuke cities like Moscow/St-Petersburg/Kiev/Minsk in retaliation. PRC had developed DF-4 back in mid 1970 which can reach Central Europe.

They didn't know whether Americans would remain neutral or take the opportunity to finish both communist regimes at once.

And today's Russia is very paranoid about the hypothetical Chinese invasion on Siberia, but back in the era of USSR, PRC has no chance to send any of their troops cross the border against the Soviet army. It is conventionally very backward and having a lot of problem with supply of military logistics.

 

[Solomon2]

Of course they were not certains what US would act...because in a nuclear exchange back in 1970s between USSR and PRC, in result PRC would certainly get annihilated, but it would nuke cities like Moscow/St-Petersburg/Kiev/Minsk in retaliation.

The Russians professed no fear that Chinese nukes would destroy their cities. Back then China could scarcely feed and clothe itself; most of its brains had been put out to pasture during the Cultural Revolution, and China's military technology suffered accordingly. Rather, the Russians believed China had only a few nukes and told themselves that these could only be delivered "by donkey". It was less the threat of U.S. or Chinese nuclear weapons rather than the sheer size of the Chinese population compared to the Russian that was feared.