Gwadar, Chabahar and Dubai

[PaklovesTurkiye]

oohh i remember Iran himself has some problem with Pakistani Baluchistan especially oil factor...

I am curious to know what problem Iran has got with our Balochistan/oil factor? Many people are talking about this...If you could tell...??

 

[faithfulguy]

Countries don't have friends. They have interests.

Yes, and now India's interest is to destabilize Pakistan. They even have raw agents in Iranian border lobbing mortars against Pakistan. How can Pakistan make India stop?

Also, why would India regard Pakistan as the enemy when China is a bigger threat to them?

 

[war&peace]

Excellent article rather the very first article about CPEC shared or posted on pdf that is genuine and contributes to the knowledge of the reader.

Thus it establishes that Gwader and Dubai ports are going to be sister ports and that is the fact. They were never going to be competitors and complementary to each other in streamlining and handling the rapidly increasing future needs of the regional and global trades...
I wish and I hope both the govts of Pakistan and Dubai see this reality and hence reset their relations based on this newly found common interest. Pakistan needs some aggressive diplomacy to market Gwader port in its true perspective.

Iran should learn the lesson and stop harbouring the terrorists and non state actors and proxy wars in the ME or it will sooner or later face the existential threat.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/IND_322028.html

Dubai non-oil foreign trade hits $347bn in 2016

 

[pakdefender]

"Brothers" in Iran and UAE are busy sabotaging Gawader , while "Brothers" in Afghanistan are busy sucking up to india.

 

[VFY]

Iran should learn the lesson and stop harbouring the terrorists and non state actors and proxy wars in the ME or it will sooner or later face the existential threat.

Doubtful. Iran is quite smart about its vassals and has been for about 3,000 years. The Persians have always had influence in Phonecia and around the Persian Gulf. It has yet to experience any type of 'blowback' that Pakistan experiences.

 

[wiseone2]

Gwadar, Chabahar and Dubai
By Naveed Ahmad
Published: March 14, 2017
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PHOTO: AFP

Less than 100 kilometers apart, Gwadar and Chabahar are emerging ambitious rivals. For decades, both the sleepy coastal towns relied on marine fishing and trivial shipping trade. Pakistan never profited from Balochistan’s potential until recently. Legend has it that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had consented to Kremlin to building a Soviet naval base in Gwadar port. The agreement was never formally signed, thanks to the Pakistani leader’s domestic political woes. Around the same time, the US wooed Shah of Iran for a naval base in Chabahar. Both lost power to lasting coups. The next-door capital of Sistan-Balochistan province was particularly snubbed after blood-soaked coup of 1979 for being a rare Sunni majority region.

Not only Gwadar but also the entire Makran coast – stretching over 1,500 kilometers of shoreline from Alkouh region north of Iran’s Mina port to Lasbela District north of Karachi port in Pakistan – owes much to US President Barack Obama. America crafted ‘pivot to Asia’ policy to rebalance its foreign policy and backed it with Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Though Barack Obama’s Russia reset was projected as another masterstroke of a statesman, the US foreign policy faltered on almost every count. While the ‘pivot’ got India as its supreme beneficiary, China remained far from deterred. Not only did it strengthen control over the South China Sea through new naval bases, Beijing also checkmated Washington with its one-belt-one-road strategy and string-of-pearls venture. US President Donald Trump topped it up by abandoning the TPP to China and Russia’s gain. The White House’s Russia ‘reset’ was at best a hallucination. Obama’s misadventures left the Pacific and Indian oceans amidst newer challenges.

Notwithstanding an assortment of trials, Gwadar fits perfectly in China and Pakistan’s scheme of things. Already signatory to defence pact with Iran since 2003, India chose Chabahar to not only challenge China’s entry in the Indian Ocean but also to encircle Pakistan while gaining backdoor entry in Afghanistan. As per its stated policy, Iran neither portrays Chabahar rivalling Gwadar nor being a strategic asset for India. The reality is, of course, to the contrary.

Owing to its unique status in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Gwadar is projected to resemble Singapore in the future. Chabahar emerges as India and Iran’s reply to China and Pakistan. Some analysts forecast that each of the nascent ports will upset Dubai one day. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has always jealously safeguarded its ports’ monopoly in the region, has been warily observing developments on the mouth of Strait of Hormuz. Are the neighbouring but competing ports worth the hype?

As for Chabahar, India’s prospective benefits can be gauged from its investment in the project along with other indicators. Delhi had earlier committed about $500 million to the port’s development while its recently announced budget earmarks paltry $22 million. China’s trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members dwarfs India’s existing and projected trade volume with Central Asian states (including Afghanistan) and Eurasia.

Gwadar is slated to handle not only China’s imports from and exports to members of GCC but also Africa and partly Europe. Being the world’s largest energy consumer since 1993, China devours over 25 per cent of the global output; the GCC states are its largest source of hydrocarbons. Come 2020, Beijing will soar by a notch to become the GCC’s largest trading partner. The Asian giant will likely be importing GCC goods worth $160 billion while exporting goods worth $135 billion. By 2025, its maritime commerce will overwhelmingly divert to Pakistan’s Gwadar port instead of passing through narrow and tense Strait of Malacca in the South China Sea. For now, Saudi Arabia is China’s single largest oil-trading partner after Russia, supplying more than 15 per cent of the country’s total annual imports. With the expected signing of the China-GCC FTA this year, China will surpass the entire European Union as the GCC region’s top trading partner. Seeing heavy reliance on Pakistan, the GCC nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar are mulling over setting up refineries and laying pipelines to Gwadar. Aramco already is repositioning and diversifying itself while pursuing an aggressive and multifaceted strategy for growth.

By far, Gwadar is a decade ahead of Chabahar in terms of development and higher brand recognition among the maritime industry. Iran’s belligerent security posturing and interventionist policies of harbouring non-state actors in Muslim countries constantly put her at the risk of war as well as sanctions.

Chabahar is and continues to be a fishing port and does not match Gwadar, which is a natural harbour and the deepest in Asia, with little need for continuous dredging. Gwadar is naturally suited to dock ‘very large crude carriers’ (VLCC) while Chabahar requires massive development and maintenance effort.

Gawadar or Chabahar will never be able to challenge Dubai’s Jebel Ali and Port Rashid. While the Makran coastal ports are under development, the Dubai ports boast 102 berths, with active VLCC petroleum supply terminals. While the Iranian port is no match to its Pakistani rival’s capacity and potential, Gwadar will complement the UAE’s maritime trade. In the times to come, the Strait of Hormuz will face ever more congestion which can either be solved through laying of pipelines to the Makran coast to serve China, Pakistan and other GCC oil buying nations or using Gwadar as auxiliary anchorage.

Dubai and Gwadar are set to be sister ports, for China is now the city’s biggest non-oil trade partner. Thus, nearly entire maritime share of UAE’s $50 billion China trade will take place via Gwadar. For all practical purposes, the Gulf state will invest in the emerging port instead of torpedoing it like Pakistan’s neighbours. Dubai is a mature port with state-of-the-art facilities located in the heart of the GCC while Gwadar will have to learn a lot from the success story. However, Dubai may face serious intimidation from Oman’s Sohar port. The most ambitious and realistic challenger to ports perched on the Strait of Arabian Gulf lies just outside the bottlenecked passageway. Separated by 200 kilometers to the southeast of Dubai, Sohar is starting to compete for traffic with Jebel Ali and other top ports inside the Gulf. Backed by Omani rail system, Sohar plans to increase its container capacity further to 4 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent unit cargo capacity) in 2017. The planned GCC railway network will place Sohar at par if not above Dubai a decade or less later. Once fully operational, Gwadar will help bolster maritime for trade Dubai and Sohar while innately lessening the congestion challenge.

While securing its vast territorial waters from rival sabotage bids, Pakistan must institutionalise a maritime partnership regime with GCC ports. Besides, it also requires a multilateral interface with the GCC on a wide-range of issues. Moreover, Islamabad and Beijing require a forum with the Gulf nations. Pakistan must also actively participate in China-GCC strategic dialogue, as Islamabad’s ties with the Gulf nations have been bilateral. Unlike India, the Islamic republic does not even maintain observer status in the Arab League. The same holds true for the African Union as Gwadar will be engine for the mega continent’s trade with China, Pakistan and Central Asia

Published in The Express Tribune, March 14th, 2017.

It is highly unlikely Chinese oil imports from GCC will go to Gwadar. Where are the pipeline infrastructure to support it ?

 

[zubair_chachar]

I am curious to know what problem Iran has got with our Balochistan/oil factor? Many people are talking about this...If you could tell...??

Simply ha ka iranian balochistan ma joo oil ha os ka flow Pakistan balochistan ki taraf ha our balochistan is rich in oil ....jab nikalen ge tu irani oil per os asar hoga

 

[PaklovesTurkiye]

Simply ha ka iranian balochistan ma joo oil ha os ka flow Pakistan balochistan ki taraf ha our balochistan is rich in oil ....jab nikalen ge tu irani oil per os asar hoga

This is amazing fuk up we are doing...I just can't believe this...

 

[Fledgingwings]

So many speculations have already been causing lots of counfusing reagarding the subject.I think we should wait.Let alone the time show who gets who.and I some what agree with Zubair.

 

[xyxmt]

for once get out of that sectarian hate and look things with open eyes
if Iran was Pakistan enemy then why did it provide air bases during indo Pak war which helped us alot as iaf was unable to destroy our jets on ground as we wer successfully destroying enemy air bases and planes on ground. If Iran is or was not Pakistan friend then why did it provide oil and other help at a time when we wer under sanctions due to our nuclear test???? the list is long but these are very prominent points just to clear mis information

Still its true their wer some issues in recent past like kulbushan and some cross boarder shelling all these wer to defame relation between the two and now all that is clear and two countries are getting more closer day by day

as for charbahar if you say its influnced by endia then rechecked again PNS ALAMGIRE PNS TIPU PNS SHAHJAHAN and PNS JAHANGIR ship has called port at charbahar and these PNS ships are not trading ships these are fighting ships which can make things clear how much ****** influence is on charbahar, its very big thing to get your enemies top line battel ships to get docked at a strategically important port which you are trying to use against your enemy

thats was different Iran, I dont think anyone in Pakistan looks at Iran with Sectarian Goggles but Iran does. Pakistan has large Shia population and Shias are just as Pakistani as Sunnis and always has most powerful seats in Pakistan. If Pakistan was a weaker country like Yemen or Qatar then Iran would have done the done the same hare as they are doing in middle east. I know you have religious affiliations with Iran but look at things with Pakistani Goggles not Shia Goggles.

 

[VFY]

thats was different Iran, I dont think anyone in Pakistan looks at Iran with Sectarian Goggles but Iran does. Pakistan has large Shia population and Shias are just as Pakistani as Sunnis and always has most powerful seats in Pakistan. If Pakistan was a weaker country like Yemen or Qatar then Iran would have done the done the same hare as they are doing in middle east. I know you have religious affiliations with Iran but look at things with Pakistani Goggles not Shia Goggles.

Amazing how much Iran can do under constant Western sanctions while being surrounded by American ships in the Persian Gulf. Does this mean that Arab allies of the West, with all their weapons, aid from the Zionist-occupied Western governments, are that stupid and imbecilic that they cannot handle such a weak country like Iran?

 

[Advocate Pakistan]

for me...
as for Air base as far as i remember Shah of Iran was in power up till 1969. it was your so called mullah regime in 1971 and even after 1971 their was a time when we had to scatter our jets due to some reason which can not be made public ...

Your history is weak dear. Shah was in power till 1979 and not 1969. And it was the shah that provided us with bases in 1965 and 1971. Shah also recognized Pakistan in 1947.

 

[mrrehan]

As Trump Confronts Iran, Chabahar is in the Eye of the Storm.
By:Maya Mirchandani (senior journalist with NDTV, India)

On the roller coaster of ties between the United States and Iran, President Trump’s apparent extreme hawkishness towards Tehran is one more loop in which the world has turned upside down.

This time, though, it’s not just US-Iran ties that are susceptible to damage. While Trump’s dealings with China and Russia may be more significant in determining how India leverages itself as an Asian powerhouse, how Trump deals with the Iran conundrum is a reality Delhi also needs to address.

It was only after the landmark nuclear deal between the P5 +1 and Iran in 2015 under the Obama administration that India finally inched forward on thee right side of Trump mean a pause in India's engagement with Iran?

New Delhi has clearly found itself in a spot. Iran has a long memory and Delhi’s vote against it at the International Atomic Energy Agency in 2006, referring Iran to the UN Security Council for its nuclear program, may be history in India, but hasn’t been forgotten in Tehran. Many Iranian commentators point out that Modi’s visit to Iran in 2016 took place well after many other major players. In fact, Chinese leader Xi Jinping was the first major leader to visit Tehran once the nuclear deal was signed. The message between the lines is that India under Modi won’t make a move to upset Washington, even if other world leaders criticize or question Trump’s policies or style.

In a post-Trump election world, despite the killing of at least 2 Indians in apparently hate crime incidents, India’s prime minister, perhaps waiting for Pakistan to be added to the list of countries facing the US immigration ban, is one of the few global leaders who has steered clear of commentary on Trump’s executive orders that many argue have emboldened racism and Islamophobia in the United States. It’s clear that the US-Iran relationship is volatile. It’s also clear that growing tensions between Iran and the US will cause concern in Delhi. But here’s the rub. The European Union and the rest of the P5+1 that negotiated the nuclear agreement have spoken out against renegotiating the deal, while calling for stricter policing of Iran. China, which was hit by the recent missile sanctions, has gone so far as to warn Trump against moves that destroy what little trust has been built up with Iran. In December 2016, China’s Foreign minister, sharing a podium with his Iranian counterpart had said the deal "should not be affected by any changes” in domestic policy.

While India certainly needn’t be adversarial on the issue, Delhi, for the sake of its own strategic and economic interests, needs to be confident of its commitment to Chabahar’s development and let America know that its bilateral relationship with Washington cannot be intertwined with its dealings with Tehran.

Maya Mirchandani is a senior journalist with NDTV based in New Delhi and is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center.

 

[Advocate Pakistan]

As Trump Confronts Iran, Chabahar is in the Eye of the Storm.
By:Maya Mirchandani (senior journalist with NDTV, India)

On the roller coaster of ties between the United States and Iran, President Trump’s apparent extreme hawkishness towards Tehran is one more loop in which the world has turned upside down.

This time, though, it’s not just US-Iran ties that are susceptible to damage. While Trump’s dealings with China and Russia may be more significant in determining how India leverages itself as an Asian powerhouse, how Trump deals with the Iran conundrum is a reality Delhi also needs to address.

On the other hand Pakistan should make the Americans realize that India is just a passing phase in your relationship (friendships) and it is Pakistan to whom you will have to return once your objective with India is fulfilled and once India shows you a thumbs down. As I have pointed out in another thread "today's counterweight to China will be tomorrow's headache to U.S of America"
And Pakistan will be the doctor to cure that headache.