Well the authorities were quite lenient what I think for the whole time,they have given him a lot of time,and carried argument with him three times,I feel that they should have wrap up the situation earlier,seeing your analysis,I think that they will try to come closest to him,as much as possible,because they are talking of this,and if succeed then he will be shot,but if not then they may assassinate him.
What authorities fear that if they shoot him today then today ten more groups will stand,our media as usual will blame government for his assassination,another thing,now this man is demanding safe passage.
Best Regards
Slav Defence