Biggest flaw in argument and its quite an amateurish one is the assumption that pakistan can beat india in a conventional war.The whole point of pakistan's overreliance on nukes is its conventional inferiority.Fight to a stalemate for 'limited war' -sure.Defeat in a large conventional war and take huge territory -
Now indian troops deployed in kashmir range between 300,000 to 500,000.Whole strength of PA is 642,000.You get the picture.
Next is your fantasy start offensive from north of siachen.Lolz,siachen area is mountaneous and high,can't support any logistical buildup of high level.Forget offensive,they are struggling to survive up there.
Next is terrain,to take territory fast u usually need armor.Kashmir are largely mountanous and advancing aganist entrenched enemies on high ground causes heavy casualities as we saw in kargil.In mountanous area military wisdom says at least 5-6 : 1 superiority in men needed for attacker.Forget getting that with PA numbers.Only reason PA could get high ground in kargil because they violated mutual agreement and occupied vacant bunkers in winter.Try that stunt against occupied positions.
Also that india will actually give a shit of pak warning and not escalate along IB,in any case we can win even without escalation in just kashmir alone in a conventional war by sheer weight of numbers and being defender has great advantage in mountanous terrain.
Now kashmiri youth - didn't work in 65 when many pak forces actually infiltrated.Now border is fenced.'Kashmiri youth' -that means the kashmir valley only.Jammu and ladkah -nothing.The chances of actually arousing anything substantial- largely zero.Best case which itself is largely fantasy, u raise a few thousand AK armed militia-so what?Now these irregulars are capable of guerilla harassment nothing more.In a war situation these are largely useless against a conventional army which now has shoot to kill orders irrelevant of civilians and are easily shot to bits by artillery,air force and armor if necessary.
Finally u go to UN and threaten unilateral aggression and nuclear war,u simply get sanctioned.Hardly any country will support you if u attack FIRST and also give nuclear threat lol.Pakistani economy already struggling.
I would like a bit of what ur smoking though.