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Gaza-Israel Conflict | October 2023

Since Blinken's arrival via the Greek Cypriot administration was not accepted by the Turks, they stopped in Baghdad for 2 hours and then crossed into Turkish airspace. When Blinken arrived at Ankara Esenboğa airport, the lights of the airport were not turned on. This is Turkish diplomatic practice when an unwanted guest arrives. The US State Department was greeted at the airport by the deputy governor of the provincial local administration and the airport duty officer.

During his meeting with Hakan Fidan, Blinken wanted to hug Fidan in front of the cameras, but Fidan refused with his body language. When the US Secretary of State left after the meeting, he posed for the cameras with a sullen face, again in violation of diplomatic conventions, showing all his tension.

What we have seen in this visit is that the US and Turkiye are only on good terms on paper, but in practice they have become two problematic and conflicting countries, even in front of the cameras. For a long time, the US has not stopped feeding and supporting terrorist organizations that threaten Turkiye's national security, despite all Turkiye's objections and struggles. US-Turkiye relations will no longer hold together as past.
 
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Pictures of Al-Qassam Brigade leaders were hung along Blinken's routes. The Turkish people sent a message to Blinken that it is not these heads of state you need to meet, it is HAMAS.

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Well, again, this is different.......

We need to go in to Iraq because we are taking the country, we tried to flank it thru Karbala gap, but that wouldn't work alone because we have objective like Baghdad, Nasiriyah, Al Kut, and Fallujah, we need to take can control those objective, which mean you can't just flank and cut them off and try to limit their supply, because we want to gain control of Iraq in 2003, not 2023. Which mean we are going to get in and go in deep.

On the other hand, the Israeli objective in Gaza is vague at best, as I said before, I don't even consider they have any objective at all, I mean, what really do take out Hamas mean? I mean sure, if they were going in and take Gaza City and hold it, yes, that could be an objective, but they already said they are not interested in controlling Gaza, now, either that's a blatant lie and they really want to re-occupy Gaza and telling people they are not, or they really don't want to do that, and given the planning at this stage, it looks a lot more like latter than former, I mean, Israeli hasn't have any pre-occupation plan, no large scale Law Enforcement/Intel op (we had 5 weeks from 9-11 to actual boots on the ground in Afghan, they had 12 days), they didn't even have a provisional government selected, now if their objective is really re-occupying Gaza, then I can say either this is one idiotic ops I have ever seen after US went to Iraq without getting a provisional government first (which borne power vacuum and the entire Iraqi insurgency) or this is not very thought out plan there are in military history.....

So, my guess is, they aren't going to go in and clear out the entire city, what they will do is what they are already doing and we are seeing from the last week, stay outside the city limit, and get drone or SF in, and then once they have any solid intel on any target information at all, they send a battle group in and kick the hornet nest Battle of Mogadishu style. Quick in and Quick out using QRF or even recon in force (Which we had already seen them using tank to loop the city) that way they will minimise their casualty which exert maximum effect.

Effectively, they are doing the Scenario 1 I wrote 3 weeks ago, just at this point, they are doing it in lite mode.



I think it is right , if the Israeli troops are encountering serious and professional resistance by Hamas mujahideen , this could take a while. And Israel is losing the international information war, badly.
It is starting to look like the Israeli government has a serious problem.
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It is even possible this turns out like the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah war, where many people expected Israel to crush Hezbollah and instead it was a battlefield stalemate and a major political victory for Hezbollah.
 

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