Floods to hit economic growth: Finance Ministry
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Dark Angel
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Pakistan floods: an emergency for the West
Unless we act decisively, large parts of flood-stricken Pakistan will be taken over by the Taliban, writes Ahmed Rashid
By Ahmed Rashid
Published: 8:11PM BST 12 Aug 2010
Pakistani flood survivors use a boat to ferry their belongings Photo: AFP
Pakistan's floods have not just devastated the lives of millions of people, they now present an unparalleled national security challenge for the country, the region and the international community. Lest anyone under-estimate the scale of the disaster, all four of Pakistan's wars with India combined did not cause such damage.
It has become clear this week that, unless major aid is forthcoming immediately and international diplomatic effort is applied to improving Pakistan's relations with India, social and ethnic tensions will rise and there will be food riots. Large parts of the country that are now cut off will be taken over by the Pakistani Taliban and affiliated extremist groups, and governance will collapse. The risk is that Pakistan will become what many have long predicted a failed state with nuclear weapons, although we are a long way off from that yet.
The heavy rain and floods have devastated the poorest and least literate areas of the country, where extremists and separatist movements thrive. Central Punjab the country's richest region, where incomes and literacy are double those of other areas has escaped the disaster. The resentment felt towards Punjab by ethnic groups in the smaller provinces is thus likely to increase.
In Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KP), formerly the North Western Frontier Province, where both the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban are based, millions of people have lost their homes and are on the move this just a few months after many of them had returned home after successful military offensives against militants in the Swat valley. Now every single bridge in the Swat valley has been destroyed and the roads washed away.
Across the province, hundreds of miles of electricity pylons and gas lines have been ripped out, power stations have been flooded, and at least half of the livestock and standing crops have been destroyed. All of this will dramatically loosen the state's control over outlying areas, in particular those bordering Afghanistan, which could be captured quickly by local Taliban.
Cont .......
Unless we act decisively, large parts of flood-stricken Pakistan will be taken over by the Taliban, writes Ahmed Rashid
By Ahmed Rashid
Published: 8:11PM BST 12 Aug 2010
Pakistani flood survivors use a boat to ferry their belongings Photo: AFP
Pakistan's floods have not just devastated the lives of millions of people, they now present an unparalleled national security challenge for the country, the region and the international community. Lest anyone under-estimate the scale of the disaster, all four of Pakistan's wars with India combined did not cause such damage.
It has become clear this week that, unless major aid is forthcoming immediately and international diplomatic effort is applied to improving Pakistan's relations with India, social and ethnic tensions will rise and there will be food riots. Large parts of the country that are now cut off will be taken over by the Pakistani Taliban and affiliated extremist groups, and governance will collapse. The risk is that Pakistan will become what many have long predicted a failed state with nuclear weapons, although we are a long way off from that yet.
The heavy rain and floods have devastated the poorest and least literate areas of the country, where extremists and separatist movements thrive. Central Punjab the country's richest region, where incomes and literacy are double those of other areas has escaped the disaster. The resentment felt towards Punjab by ethnic groups in the smaller provinces is thus likely to increase.
In Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KP), formerly the North Western Frontier Province, where both the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban are based, millions of people have lost their homes and are on the move this just a few months after many of them had returned home after successful military offensives against militants in the Swat valley. Now every single bridge in the Swat valley has been destroyed and the roads washed away.
Across the province, hundreds of miles of electricity pylons and gas lines have been ripped out, power stations have been flooded, and at least half of the livestock and standing crops have been destroyed. All of this will dramatically loosen the state's control over outlying areas, in particular those bordering Afghanistan, which could be captured quickly by local Taliban.
Cont .......
Dark Angel
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The poverty-stricken plains of southern Punjab and northern Sind, another major recruitment centre for extremists, have also been drowned. Millions of acres of crops have been destroyed and villages washed away. Joblessness and helplessness will lead to more young men joining the militants, who are propagating the idea that the floods are God's wrath against the government.
In Balochistan, the country's poorest region, which is beset with a separatist insurgency as well as hosting Afghan Taliban bases, flash floods and heavy rain have destroyed infrastructure and the below-subsistence economy. Baloch separatists are already blaming the government for poor relief efforts and urging a stepped-up struggle for independence.
And the floods have not stopped the rampant violence in the country. The Pakistani Taliban continue to carry out suicide bombings and assassinations and have vowed to wipe out the Awami National Party which governs KP province. The Taliban are now threatening to prevent Pakistani non-governmental organisations from carrying out relief work, while allowing militant groups who have set up their own relief camps to expand. In Balochistan, separatist violence goes on, while in Karachi, inter-ethnic killings have continued, with more than 100 murders in the past four weeks.
More than 60,000 Pakistani troops, many of whom were recently fighting the Taliban in KP, and virtually the entire helicopter fleet of the army, are now involved in flood relief. For months to come the army is unlikely to be in a position even to hold the areas along the Afghan border that it has won back from the militants.
That means the war in Afghanistan is about to become even more bloody. US and Nato efforts to secure southern Afghanistan – and new US troop deployments expected this month in eastern Afghanistan – will be affected, as more militants come across the border. The Taliban see the floods as a huge opportunity for recruitment in Pakistan, rather than a disaster.
Moreover, the truly catastrophic long-term destruction is to infrastructure and communications, and that will badly affect any campaign by the Pakistan army against the Taliban for years to come. Terrorists who have used border regions for training and contact with al-Qaeda will find it even easier to do so with the collapse of governance.
With the chronic shortage of foodstuffs and the beginning of the fasting month of Ramadan, food prices have doubled or even tripled, which is likely to lead to acute social tensions. Vegetables are becoming scarce and the lack of livestock is already creating serious shortages of meat and milk for children.
So far, the international aid response, apart from American and British contributions, has been next to pathetic, something for which the US Special Envoy for the region, Richard Holbrooke, has publicly castigated America's allies. Britain has "earmarked", in the FCO's phrase, up to £31.3 million, while the US is providing some $71 million and has sent 19 heavy lift helicopters.
The proceeds of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which sanctioned $1.5 billion a year for five years for development projects in the civilian sector in Pakistan, are now likely to be diverted to flood relief. It is helpful that such money is available, but vital development projects on which the money should have been spent will now be halted.
Donations from the European Union, Nato countries and especially the Islamic world have been negligible, prompting international aid organisations such as Oxfam to complain of the lack of response. The UN appeal for $459 million to cover immediate relief for the next 90 days is so far not even half fulfilled.
Once there is sufficient humanitarian relief, the most urgent need is for donors to deliver project assistance to rebuild bridges and restore power and roads, particularly in the strategic KP province. The government's ineffectiveness and lack of response so far has been much criticised, but the reality is that Pakistan's coffers are empty and the country is entirely dependent for economic survival on a long-term $11.3 billion loan from the IMF.
India has failed to respond to the crisis and there remains bitter animosity between the two countries, particularly because India blames the current uprising in Indian Kashmir on Pakistan – even though Indian commentators admit that it is more indigenous than Pakistan-instigated.
Help is needed for the two countries to sort out their acute differences over their common river systems, [U]the building of new dams on both sides of the border and the need to allow Indian relief goods, as well as cheaper food and construction materials, to enter Pakistan easily. International agencies would find it much simpler and cheaper to buy such goods from India rather than shipping them in from further afield. [/U]
None of this is going to be possible unless there are international diplomatic efforts to get the two rivals to talk to one another. India should understand that it does not further its own national security to have a destitute Pakistan on its borders.
Finally, the crisis adds urgency to the need for the US and Nato to open talks with the Afghan Taliban. A huge influx of Pakistani Taliban into Afghanistan, recruiting thousands more fighters from flood-affected Pakistan as they go, would seriously undermine the Afghan government and Nato.
The floods are more than a natural disaster: they herald a potential regional catastrophe that has to be met with far more determination, generosity and diplomacy than the West has shown so far.
Ahmed Rashid's latest book is 'Descent into Chaos: the United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia' (Viking). A revised edition of his best-selling 'Taliban' has been reissued by IB Tauris
Pakistan floods: an emergency for the West - Telegraph
In Balochistan, the country's poorest region, which is beset with a separatist insurgency as well as hosting Afghan Taliban bases, flash floods and heavy rain have destroyed infrastructure and the below-subsistence economy. Baloch separatists are already blaming the government for poor relief efforts and urging a stepped-up struggle for independence.
And the floods have not stopped the rampant violence in the country. The Pakistani Taliban continue to carry out suicide bombings and assassinations and have vowed to wipe out the Awami National Party which governs KP province. The Taliban are now threatening to prevent Pakistani non-governmental organisations from carrying out relief work, while allowing militant groups who have set up their own relief camps to expand. In Balochistan, separatist violence goes on, while in Karachi, inter-ethnic killings have continued, with more than 100 murders in the past four weeks.
More than 60,000 Pakistani troops, many of whom were recently fighting the Taliban in KP, and virtually the entire helicopter fleet of the army, are now involved in flood relief. For months to come the army is unlikely to be in a position even to hold the areas along the Afghan border that it has won back from the militants.
That means the war in Afghanistan is about to become even more bloody. US and Nato efforts to secure southern Afghanistan – and new US troop deployments expected this month in eastern Afghanistan – will be affected, as more militants come across the border. The Taliban see the floods as a huge opportunity for recruitment in Pakistan, rather than a disaster.
Moreover, the truly catastrophic long-term destruction is to infrastructure and communications, and that will badly affect any campaign by the Pakistan army against the Taliban for years to come. Terrorists who have used border regions for training and contact with al-Qaeda will find it even easier to do so with the collapse of governance.
With the chronic shortage of foodstuffs and the beginning of the fasting month of Ramadan, food prices have doubled or even tripled, which is likely to lead to acute social tensions. Vegetables are becoming scarce and the lack of livestock is already creating serious shortages of meat and milk for children.
So far, the international aid response, apart from American and British contributions, has been next to pathetic, something for which the US Special Envoy for the region, Richard Holbrooke, has publicly castigated America's allies. Britain has "earmarked", in the FCO's phrase, up to £31.3 million, while the US is providing some $71 million and has sent 19 heavy lift helicopters.
The proceeds of the Kerry-Lugar Bill, which sanctioned $1.5 billion a year for five years for development projects in the civilian sector in Pakistan, are now likely to be diverted to flood relief. It is helpful that such money is available, but vital development projects on which the money should have been spent will now be halted.
Donations from the European Union, Nato countries and especially the Islamic world have been negligible, prompting international aid organisations such as Oxfam to complain of the lack of response. The UN appeal for $459 million to cover immediate relief for the next 90 days is so far not even half fulfilled.
Once there is sufficient humanitarian relief, the most urgent need is for donors to deliver project assistance to rebuild bridges and restore power and roads, particularly in the strategic KP province. The government's ineffectiveness and lack of response so far has been much criticised, but the reality is that Pakistan's coffers are empty and the country is entirely dependent for economic survival on a long-term $11.3 billion loan from the IMF.
India has failed to respond to the crisis and there remains bitter animosity between the two countries, particularly because India blames the current uprising in Indian Kashmir on Pakistan – even though Indian commentators admit that it is more indigenous than Pakistan-instigated.
Help is needed for the two countries to sort out their acute differences over their common river systems, [U]the building of new dams on both sides of the border and the need to allow Indian relief goods, as well as cheaper food and construction materials, to enter Pakistan easily. International agencies would find it much simpler and cheaper to buy such goods from India rather than shipping them in from further afield. [/U]
None of this is going to be possible unless there are international diplomatic efforts to get the two rivals to talk to one another. India should understand that it does not further its own national security to have a destitute Pakistan on its borders.
Finally, the crisis adds urgency to the need for the US and Nato to open talks with the Afghan Taliban. A huge influx of Pakistani Taliban into Afghanistan, recruiting thousands more fighters from flood-affected Pakistan as they go, would seriously undermine the Afghan government and Nato.
The floods are more than a natural disaster: they herald a potential regional catastrophe that has to be met with far more determination, generosity and diplomacy than the West has shown so far.
Ahmed Rashid's latest book is 'Descent into Chaos: the United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia' (Viking). A revised edition of his best-selling 'Taliban' has been reissued by IB Tauris
Pakistan floods: an emergency for the West - Telegraph
Yeh, India should also offer help. I didn't come across any post quoting relief from Indian authority. The reason may be because the floods situation in pakistan is not covered extensively by Indian media. 
Very sad and disappointed. In these times, we should forget past differences and work together for the greater good.
I hope, the GoI, corporate sector and even the students of India, come up with relief for People affected by floods.
Very sad and disappointed. In these times, we should forget past differences and work together for the greater good.
I hope, the GoI, corporate sector and even the students of India, come up with relief for People affected by floods.
Meengla
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Indeed, if India can send boats and helicopters in large number it will go a long way in removing cobweb of suspicions from the Pakistani mind. Remember that in 2005--even though American image was very bad then in Pakistan--American help following the earthquake in northern Pakistan really helped form a positive opinion about America in millions of Pakistanis.
India can do the same. Many Pakistanis may not like me saying that--it is a question of ego. But think through the eyes of someone whose entire life possessions and loved ones are being lost. The clock is ticking for them.
India can do the same. Many Pakistanis may not like me saying that--it is a question of ego. But think through the eyes of someone whose entire life possessions and loved ones are being lost. The clock is ticking for them.
stevesteevy
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My god! Going to affect 4.5 per cent of GDP ..................No wonder they call the worst floods in 80 years.
Hi, I just wanted to add some clarifications to some of the comments made. Pakistan was projected to have a 4.5% GDP growth in the upcoming year. Due to the floods, it has been projected that the growth rate will fall by at least 1%-1.5%, translating into a 3%-3.5% growth rate now.
Pakistan's GDP is not expected to contract, rather not grow that much. However a 3%-3.5% GDP growth is not optimal, given the inflation rate (>10%), a high population growth rate, and most importantly current debt obligations. Also a loss of 1.5% GDP growth in FYI 2011, compounded over future growth rates adds up to a huge opportunity cost/loss.
Moreover, Pakistan is going to have to take loans to cover the reconstruction costs, which will only add more future debt servicing costs in the future. This additional debt servicing will constrain future development spending.
However, if the reconstruction is managed properly, it can stimulate other industries, construction, cement, steel, etc. Moreover, there is the opportunity to move some of the affected people away from subsistance farming to more permanent type of employment.
However, given the corruption in Pakistan and the sorry state of its affairs, I only see more corruption and the poor getting screwed once again. There are people in Kashmir, who are still living in relief camps and waiting for help after the 2005 earthquake.
Pakistan has the money to finance this reconstruction itself, if it only gets people to pay taxes, cracks down/recovers bad loans given, and curbs corruption. Pakistan has one of the lowest tax to GDP ratios.
However, the current government finds it easier to simply go begging for a free handout. I just find it disgraceful that a country of 180M cannot even cough up $450M itself to feeds its own people. Moreover the damages have been estimated to be around $10B, it is a shame Pakistan cannot even cover that itself and Zadari and the Pakistan Foreign Minister go around begging for money. Take care.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/asia/17pstan.html?_r=1&ref=world
Corruption in Pakistan hurts common People and Breeds Extremism Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj)
DAWN.COM | Pakistan | PM?s wife paid Rs45.5m against Rs570m liabilities
Pakistan's GDP is not expected to contract, rather not grow that much. However a 3%-3.5% GDP growth is not optimal, given the inflation rate (>10%), a high population growth rate, and most importantly current debt obligations. Also a loss of 1.5% GDP growth in FYI 2011, compounded over future growth rates adds up to a huge opportunity cost/loss.
Moreover, Pakistan is going to have to take loans to cover the reconstruction costs, which will only add more future debt servicing costs in the future. This additional debt servicing will constrain future development spending.
However, if the reconstruction is managed properly, it can stimulate other industries, construction, cement, steel, etc. Moreover, there is the opportunity to move some of the affected people away from subsistance farming to more permanent type of employment.
However, given the corruption in Pakistan and the sorry state of its affairs, I only see more corruption and the poor getting screwed once again. There are people in Kashmir, who are still living in relief camps and waiting for help after the 2005 earthquake.
Pakistan has the money to finance this reconstruction itself, if it only gets people to pay taxes, cracks down/recovers bad loans given, and curbs corruption. Pakistan has one of the lowest tax to GDP ratios.
However, the current government finds it easier to simply go begging for a free handout. I just find it disgraceful that a country of 180M cannot even cough up $450M itself to feeds its own people. Moreover the damages have been estimated to be around $10B, it is a shame Pakistan cannot even cover that itself and Zadari and the Pakistan Foreign Minister go around begging for money. Take care.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/17/world/asia/17pstan.html?_r=1&ref=world
Corruption in Pakistan hurts common People and Breeds Extremism Indus Asia Online Journal (iaoj)
DAWN.COM | Pakistan | PM?s wife paid Rs45.5m against Rs570m liabilities
Hi, more information on the potential GDP rate loss. Thanks!
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
Business Recorder [Pakistan's First Financial Daily]
nightcrawler
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The people of Pakistan have been left to rot by the international community. The scale of the flood disaster has either been wholly misunderstood or else there are forces at play which wish to take advantage of a destabilized Pakistan; the pitifully weak response by the international community moves this country and the region nearer to the abyss of chaos.
Pakistan: Where the International Community Got It Wrong - Pravda.Ru
Pakistan: Where the International Community Got It Wrong - Pravda.Ru
Guynextdoor
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I'd like to communicate to all my Pakistani brothers my deep condolences and sympathies during this time of crisis. May God give your people the stregth to overcome this disaster and rise and shine like never before.
Hi, I do not feel sorry for the financial situation Pakistan is in. It has brought this on itself. If that country was to clamp down on corruption and also make people pay their taxes, they can easily finance this reconstruction themselves.
The international community is under no obligation to pay for this damage. Pakistan has mismanaged its own house, and should not get a bailout. If you or I were to fall behind on our financial obligations, or not live within our means, we would have our homes, cars, and material possessions repossessed by the bank. Why should a sovereign state be treated any differently for not being able to pay its bills?
The article and acompanying video gives a good explanantion of the reasons behind Pakistan's fiscal woes. Take care.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/19/world/asia/19taxes.html
The international community is under no obligation to pay for this damage. Pakistan has mismanaged its own house, and should not get a bailout. If you or I were to fall behind on our financial obligations, or not live within our means, we would have our homes, cars, and material possessions repossessed by the bank. Why should a sovereign state be treated any differently for not being able to pay its bills?
The article and acompanying video gives a good explanantion of the reasons behind Pakistan's fiscal woes. Take care.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/19/world/asia/19taxes.html
fawwaxs
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Pakistan floods destroy crops over 4.25mn acres
ISLAMABAD: Floods in Pakistan have destroyed or extensively damaged crops over 4.25 million acres (1.72 million hectares) of land, Food Minister Nazar Muhammad Gondal said on Monday.
The total areas under cultivation is about 23 million hectares, food ministry officials say.
The floods have destroyed or extensively damaged crops, including cotton, rice, sugarcane, maize and others over an area of 4.25 million acres, he told Reuters.
According to an estimated breakdown of losses prepared by the food ministry, rice was the worst hit with an area of 1.51 million acres (614,157 hectares) destroyed by the floods.
Industry officials say that translates into a loss of 1.5 million tonnes of rice. Less output means Pakistan will have a smaller surplus for exports.
Pakistan had a bumper crop of 6.7 million tonnes of milled rice in 2009/10 and exported about 4.5 million tonnes, traders say.
But a US Department of Agriculture attache in Pakistan said in a report this month that the country exported 3.75 million tonnes of rice in 2009/10. -Reuters
ISLAMABAD: Floods in Pakistan have destroyed or extensively damaged crops over 4.25 million acres (1.72 million hectares) of land, Food Minister Nazar Muhammad Gondal said on Monday.
The total areas under cultivation is about 23 million hectares, food ministry officials say.
The floods have destroyed or extensively damaged crops, including cotton, rice, sugarcane, maize and others over an area of 4.25 million acres, he told Reuters.
According to an estimated breakdown of losses prepared by the food ministry, rice was the worst hit with an area of 1.51 million acres (614,157 hectares) destroyed by the floods.
Industry officials say that translates into a loss of 1.5 million tonnes of rice. Less output means Pakistan will have a smaller surplus for exports.
Pakistan had a bumper crop of 6.7 million tonnes of milled rice in 2009/10 and exported about 4.5 million tonnes, traders say.
But a US Department of Agriculture attache in Pakistan said in a report this month that the country exported 3.75 million tonnes of rice in 2009/10. -Reuters
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