First Embraer Lineage 1000 has arrived in Pakistan

[araz]

PIA has decided to finish its commercial ATRs service which means in about 24 months they will get rid of all ATRs and any ground services associated with them. This is bad news for PN whose primary consideration for buying ATRs was using PIA ability for repair and service ATRs periodically and at much cheaper rates. Flying a commercially built non militarised/ marinized ATR for access of 6 hours over the corrosive Arabian Sea environment tremendously increases the MTBF and MTTR of external engines and components. This could mean that very soon PN may as well consider replacing the expensive to maintain ATRs with smaller sized jets as well. Lets see how that comes about in the next five years or so.

Is this not bad planning? Surely PIA would have had its plans well in place. If 0N is relying on PIA should they have not consulted them prior to procuring the platform?
Now another plane has to be procured so another outlay in a cash restrained environment.
A

 

[Cookie Monster]

PIA has decided to finish its commercial ATRs service which means in about 24 months they will get rid of all ATRs and any ground services associated with them. This is bad news for PN whose primary consideration for buying ATRs was using PIA ability for repair and service ATRs periodically and at much cheaper rates. Flying a commercially built non militarised/ marinized ATR for access of 6 hours over the corrosive Arabian Sea environment tremendously increases the MTBF and MTTR of external engines and components. This could mean that very soon PN may as well consider replacing the expensive to maintain ATRs with smaller sized jets as well. Lets see how that comes about in the next five years or so.

Since the investment has already been made in acquiring the ATR-72 based MPAs...the ideal scenario would be to make do with them. However if the cost to operate them over their lifetime would turn out to be more than outright replacing them with something more cost effective...then alternatives could be looked at. Personally I always wondered why PN didn't use SAAB 2000 as the base platform(as opposed to these ATRs) since PAF already has a sizable quantity of those...along with the ability to maintain and repair them(with SAAB's help presumably).

	RAS Sea Eagle	SAAB 2000 Erieye
Length	27.17 m	27.28 m
Height	7.65 m	7.73 m
Wingspan	27.17 m	24.76 m
MTOW	23,000 Kg	23,000 Kg
Endurance	> 9 hours	> 9.5 hours
Range		> 2000 NM
Take off distance	1,170 m	1,400 m
Service Ceiling	25,000 ft	30,000 ft
Powerplant	PW 127 F/M (2750 shp)	Rolls-Royce AE 2100P (4,152 shp)

SAAB 2000 is similar enough to do the job. IMO it would be more efficient and synergistic for PAF and PN(air assets) to try to aim for as much commonality as possible.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Since the investment has already been made in acquiring the ATR-72 based MPAs...the ideal scenario would be to make do with them. However if the cost to operate them over their lifetime would turn out to be more than outright replacing them with something more cost effective...then alternatives could be looked at. Personally I always wondered why PN didn't use SAAB 2000 as the base platform(as opposed to these ATRs) since PAF already has a sizable quantity of those...along with the ability to maintain and repair them(with SAAB's help presumably).

	RAS Sea Eagle	SAAB 2000 Erieye
Length	27.17 m	27.28 m
Height	7.65 m	7.73 m
Wingspan	27.17 m	24.76 m
MTOW	23,000 Kg	23,000 Kg
Endurance	> 9 hours	> 9.5 hours
Range		> 2000 NM
Take off distance	1,170 m	1,400 m
Service Ceiling	25,000 ft	30,000 ft
Powerplant	PW 127 F/M (2750 shp)	Rolls-Royce AE 2100P (4,152 shp)

SAAB 2000 is similar enough to do the job. IMO it would be more efficient and synergistic for PAF and PN(air assets) to try to aim for as much commonality as possible.

Perhaps they can transfer the RAS-72s to the MSA? We can start off-loading more of these policing, patrol, and even asymmetrical ops work to paramilitary / support forces.

I'd rather we tune our core military (i.e., Army, Navy, Air Force) to focus on unleashing as much destructive havoc on another military, and leave all this COIN/CT, 'CPEC security,' policing, etc, to other specialized forces. Of course, delegating is not our strong suit, so I may be asking for too much, right @PAR 5

 

[Yasser76]

Perhaps they can transfer the RAS-72s to the MSA? We can start off-loading more of these policing, patrol, and even asymmetrical ops work to paramilitary / support forces.

I'd rather we tune our core military (i.e., Army, Navy, Air Force) to focus on unleashing as much destructive havoc on another military, and leave all this COIN/CT, 'CPEC security,' policing, etc, to other specialized forces. Of course, delegating is not our strong suit, so I may be asking for too much, right @PAR 5

It's not just kinetic effects, as we know know in modern war, and as Feb 27th proved, information sharing, networking and EW/SIGINT helps with a much more efficient use of resources. Yes, Sea Sultan will be fast and maybe carry 4 heavy anti-ship missiles and torpedos, but fleet of relatively cheap ATRs flaying with radar acting as a mobile data relay and date link to other assets can be just as effective, literally an AWACS for surface warfare. PAF invested heavily in this and seems PN is too

 

[Cookie Monster]

Perhaps they can transfer the RAS-72s to the MSA? We can start off-loading more of these policing, patrol, and even asymmetrical ops work to paramilitary / support forces.

I'd rather we tune our core military (i.e., Army, Navy, Air Force) to focus on unleashing as much destructive havoc on another military, and leave all this COIN/CT, 'CPEC security,' policing, etc, to other specialized forces. Of course, delegation is not our strong suit, so I may be asking for too much, right @PAR 5

Technically that would be the ideal scenario...where Pak can sort of build PMSA as a backup navy...with the specific intention of it supporting PN in case of war. IMO the OPVs acquired for maritime security should specifically be made to be modular in the sense that they can easily be armed to the teeth in case of war. This dual use can allow PN to either beef up the number of vessels very quickly if needed...or rely on PMSA assets to sort of plug holes in case of attrition to frontline PN assets. Using Israeli SAAR 6 class 1900ton corvette as an example...
...imagine if PMSA had a gutted(lightly armed) version of this SAAR 6 class...designated as an OPV...which would have less operating cost(as opposed to the fully decked out version)...and would do the maritime patrol/security duty just fine.
...then if war breaks out...PN takes over this OPV...arms it to the teeth(turning it into like SAAR 6 corvette is right now)...and just like that PN gained a corvette in a matter of days.

If that's how PN/Pak gov is thinking/planning then...that's amazing...and in that case it makes sense to transfer RAS 72 Sea Eagles to PMSA. Not only would they do an excellent job during peacetime...they can also be relied upon to offset attrition during wartime.

If that's not the case however...then I think the best course of action for PN(keeping in mind how their budget is spread thin due to all the goodies being acquired)...would be to try to sell these RAS 72 Sea Eagles to Turkey or Italy(since those two already operate aircraft very similar to these) or even some other small third country that is in need of MPAs...
...of course that's only if the total operating cost over the lifetime of these aircrafts is going to be exorbitantly higher than previously projected.

The money gained from selling these...could be used to acquire additional subsystems(while the subsystems for LRMPAs are being purchased)...and either have PAC integrate those on SAAB 2000s in house(if they can do it)...
...or have whichever company is gonna do LRMPA...do the SAAB 2000 MPA as well.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

It's not just kinetic effects, as we know know in modern war, and as Feb 27th proved, information sharing, networking and EW/SIGINT helps with a much more efficient use of resources. Yes, Sea Sultan will be fast and maybe carry 4 heavy anti-ship missiles and torpedos, but fleet of relatively cheap ATRs flaying with radar acting as a mobile data relay and date link to other assets can be just as effective, literally an AWACS for surface warfare. PAF invested heavily in this and seems PN is too

Not disagreeing with keeping the RAS-72, but as an addition to it, perhaps look at fitting MALE UAVs with the same Seaspray AESA radar? I wonder if we can make those UAVs into automated AEW&C-type aircraft (using AI and ML?) that can co-guide AShMs, coordinate USVs and low-flying VTOL UAVs? You pair that with a SATCOM and SATNAV capability plus a back-up COM/NAV using HAPS (like the one Integrating Dynamics is developing)?

 

[Path-Finder]

Not disagreeing with keeping the RAS-72, but as an addition to it, perhaps look at fitting MALE UAVs with the same Seaspray AESA radar? I wonder if we can make those UAVs into automated AEW&C-type aircraft (using AI and ML?) that can co-guide AShMs, coordinate USVs and low-flying VTOL UAVs? You pair that with a SATCOM and SATNAV capability plus a back-up COM/NAV using HAPS (like the one Integrating Dynamics is developing)?

I think Akinci could be the drone contender for it!

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

I think Akinci could be the drone contender for it!

I'd prefer a jet like Cloud Shadow or Soar Dragon.

 

[Path-Finder]

I'd prefer a jet like Cloud Shadow or Soar Dragon.

indeed, maybe we can turn K8's into pilotless drones.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

indeed, maybe we can turn K8's into pilotless drones.

Unfortunately, I don't know if we have much of a development base for the K-8 in Pakistan. IIRC we took on about 25% of the production under a workshare agreement, but beyond that, not much from what I know.

That said, a turbojet or turbofan-powered HALE UAV would be a logical next-step from AvRID's MALE UAV.

 

[mingle]

PN should look

We haven't received the third RAS-72 yet and here you are saying such discouraging things

If that's what @PAR 5 said is correct then PN should look other country whom will buy theior ATR if they looking to replace with smaller jet or PN should took over PIA ATR maintenance facilities if this option is cost effective just retiring them or ground them is not a way farward can look swordfish system for smaller jet

 

[GriffinsRule]

Replacing newly inducted ATRs just because PIA returned some lease aircraft? That is just nuts. The disconnect between reality and wishful thinking is ever growing on the forum it seems.

 

[Cookie Monster]

Replacing newly inducted ATRs just because PIA returned some lease aircraft? That is just nuts. The disconnect between reality and wishful thinking is ever growing on the forum it seems.

PAR 5 has provided accurate info so far...ahead of time(before the news officially broke)...so whatever his sources are...any info coming from him obviously carries some weight.

Ppl here are only speculating/brainstorming solutions out of their love for their country and armed forces. Obviously if the RAS 72 Sea Eagles are doing just fine as planned...then of course that's the best.
...the alternatives being thrown around are only in case that the maintenance costs over the lifetime of these aircrafts become exorbitantly high...
...there's no harm in thinking.

 

[Yasser76]

So much speculation and noise, so little actual facts. PIA are not getting rid of ATR completely. Even if they did PN can still efficiently operate ATRs. Turk Navy operates ATR and yet Turkish Arlines does not. People need to remember ATR is a very very popular plane, there are over 1,500 in service! Spares, support etc will never be an issue for the rest of it's life in PN.

Again, it is not about having Sea Sultans or ATR. Both make an ideal combination. Firstly, as mentioned it is a great sensor platform and can carry equipment that UAVs cannot. Secondly there will be many missions, maybe the majority, where we will not need the weapons and targeting capabilities of a Sea Sultan, mainly anti-piracy, anti-terror, fishiries protection, anti-smuggling, search and rescue. For these we need a cheaper, smaller plane that can identify targets/rescue location and cordinate PN ships. ATR fits that role perfectly.

Really time to end pointless speculation now

Not disagreeing with keeping the RAS-72, but as an addition to it, perhaps look at fitting MALE UAVs with the same Seaspray AESA radar? I wonder if we can make those UAVs into automated AEW&C-type aircraft (using AI and ML?) that can co-guide AShMs, coordinate USVs and low-flying VTOL UAVs? You pair that with a SATCOM and SATNAV capability plus a back-up COM/NAV using HAPS (like the one Integrating Dynamics is developing)?

Seaspray radar is very big, also ATR has torpedos too. I really cannot think of anything less that Predator UAV that could fill it's role, taking that into account ATR makes perfect sense. Also much more capable than any UAV would be (weapons, lift raft/emergency supplies etc). PN can also even use it for light transport duties.

UAV would need a lot more tine and development before it becomes even close to ATR

 

[PAR 5]

PIA own existence is at stake, hence keeping the ATR 42 May be temporary as well as the short haul prop flights are generally operated at a loss that is covered via Jet routes profits. In this case however even the PIA jets are internationally grounded. So whichever way you look at it, News is not good for PIA, ATR and PN as well.