February 2019 Indo/Pak Standoff - Unanswered Questions

[araz]

Intelligence failure probably not .
Because everyone was expecting some kind of retaliation from Pakistan .
So you can understand how much alert they will be .
What we can say about that development it was a calculated yet a standard low risk response to deescalate the situation.
Any way our mission was terrorists not Pakistan or its military .

Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
We dont want war .It will affect our economy.
So in sense we tactically absorb the retaliation of Pakistan without compromising our security .
We also knows that everyone was looking for war especially some foreign vested interests .
Because that is good for their business.

My only observation to your logic is that if that was the case why did IAF persue PAF across IB. They could just have turned back knowing fully well the PAF had crossed over to their side. Did they do it in the heat of the moment or did their radars go blank with them losing situational awareness? These are questions which if answered would have led to political jingoism on both sides but no losses. In short there are more questions then there are answers. The problem from my side is the Indian media which inflated the situation and indeed caused harm to the Indian narrative.

A

 

[ziaulislam]

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=395244447976582

- Spice 2000 strike off target is an assumption. India was and did advertise 300+ casualties from their strikes. Why would they embarrass themselves!! Secondly, they continued, even now, to insist that 300+ casualties did happen. They are bringing all the theories of smart smaller warheads etc. which means to only kill the inhabitants and cause no damage to the buildings. Such elaborate efforts to establish something which was not your intentions! As a bonus laughed at by the whole world!!!
I don't think so. Therefore, the evidence ever since shows that the Indians definitely wanted to strike the buildings, but some how they failed. The reasons may come out later, may be in years.

- I don't agree with your analysis. The strike have caused shame for Indians world over.

- I have been saying this all along, once they enter your airspace, the war is already on. This was the point of view of another person. I am still of the opinion PAF should have made the kill on 26th. IF they did, the Indians could not have claimed that they were shot down on their side of the border. They simply cannot when you are claiming that you have intruded 80 kilometers right up to Balakot.

Its still weird why would spice miss.. Its an excellent and smart weapon ..it has an 80km range...may be it wasnt launched at optimum height and speed..or intel was wrong and target were not selected

 

[Sine Nomine]

They prodded us to reveal capabilities, and we showed them our trump cards while inflicting minimal damage. The joke's on us.

That detective, is the right question

Relax,they have seen what we acquired in past that too from West,if i am not wrong we have good chinese options in EW.
And they haven't seen full wrath of Chinese systems.
And above everything we too have got a very clear picture of them.

 

[The Deterrent]

It was a major success if they were able to
hit few of our military installations because that was their missions .
That doesnt happen.
We dont have lack of resource to deploy
in that problematic sector .
A 5 to 6 squadrons can deploy within minutes and Awacs had already been there 24 hrs .
So our aim was to prevent PAF strike package from creating serious damage.
Not to attack them .

Deeacalation through IAF.PAF could have more assertive but they were also there to make a point.

So you're saying that IAF gambled on allowing PAF to easily strike since IAF didn't deploy SAMs and aircrafts on purpose...while maintaining some sort of magical edge as to 'thwart' the PAF strike. Bravo!
By the way, did anyone forget to inform Wing Commander Abhinandhan of this Master Plan?

- Spice 2000 strike off target is an assumption. India was and did advertise 300+ casualties from their strikes. Why would they embarrass themselves!! Secondly, they continued, even now, to insist that 300+ casualties did happen. They are bringing all the theories of smart smaller warheads etc. which means to only kill the inhabitants and cause no damage to the buildings. Such elaborate efforts to establish something which was not your intentions! As a bonus laughed at by the whole world!!!
I don't think so. Therefore, the evidence ever since shows that the Indians definitely wanted to strike the buildings, but some how they failed. The reasons may come out later, may be in years.

- I don't agree with your analysis. The strike have caused shame for Indians world over.

- I have been saying this all along, once they enter your airspace, the war is already on. This was the point of view of another person. I am still of the opinion PAF should have made the kill on 26th. IF they did, the Indians could not have claimed that they were shot down on their side of the border. They simply cannot when you are claiming that you have intruded 80 kilometers right up to Balakot.

As I said before, as long as the strikes justify their narrative at home, GoI achieved its objective: gave a message to Pakistan and increased its vote-bank. The world has no part to play in that objective.

The 80 km claim is BS concocted by their media houses. I'll repeat, when you have no airborne CAP in the sector, and the next one is coming from a 100km away...then popping up from behind the Pir Panjal range and intruding 4-5kms is not a big deal. IAF had plenty of time to gain the required altitude and release the SOWs from a ~40km standoff distance.

Lets agree to disagree.

 

[Mrc]

They prodded us to reveal capabilities, and we showed them our trump cards while inflicting minimal damage. The joke's on us.

Block 3 is under construction... In 2 years time not only u shud have the real deal block 3 in service but all block 2s shud upgraded to near block 3 standards with aesa upgrades...

Nope laugh is still on them

 

[CriticalThought]

Block 3 is under construction... In 2 years time not only u shud have the real deal block 3 in service but all block 2s shud upgraded to near block 3 standards with aesa upgrades...

Nope laugh is still on them

The leak is not just about Thunder. It is extremely wide ranging. Wait for my next thread.

 

[SrNair]

So you're saying that IAF gambled on allowing PAF to easily strike since IAF didn't deploy SAMs and aircrafts on purpose...while maintaining some sort of magical edge as to 'thwart' the PAF strike. Bravo!
By the way, did anyone forget to inform Wing Commander Abhinandhan of this Master Plan?


As I said before, as long as the strikes justify their narrative at home, GoI achieved its objective: gave a message to Pakistan and increased its vote-bank. The world has no part to play in that objective.

The 80 km claim is BS concocted by their media houses. I'll repeat, when you have no airborne CAP in the sector, and the next one is coming from a 100km away...then popping up from behind the Pir Panjal range and intruding 4-5kms is not a big deal. IAF had plenty of time to gain the required altitude and release the SOWs from a ~40km standoff distance.

Lets agree to disagree.

Not strike but prevent them from doing more misadventure .
A balancing actvto deescalate .
Thats all.
Retaliation was sure ,probably our side had a plan.
Any way Awacs is there for 24 hr monitor.
And nor we face any kind of fighter shortage in that sector .
They could have deployed more than this .
But refrain from doing so.

My only observation to your logic is that if that was the case why did IAF persue PAF across IB. They could just have turned back knowing fully well the PAF had crossed over to their side. Did they do it in the heat of the moment or did their radars go blank with them losing situational awareness? These are questions which if answered would have led to political jingoism on both sides but no losses. In short there are more questions then there are answers. The problem from my side is the Indian media which inflated the situation and indeed caused harm to the Indian narrative.

A

Yes .Abhinandan chased PAF across the LoC itself was a wrong move either he ignored the threat or like you said lack of situational awarness .
But we had at least one more mig 21 there,it returned safely.
So more proabability is it was Abhninadan own decision anyway to use that opportunity .

Indian Media is a total waste .
There is a reason that our PM always avoid our media.And they amount of stupidity they are saying in defence related matters is kind of embarassing.
They dont know difference between SoW and SAM

 

[araz]

Not strike but prevent them from doing more misadventure .
A balancing actvto deescalate .
Thats all.
Retaliation was sure ,probably our side had a plan.
Any way Awacs is there for 24 hr monitor.
And nor we face any kind of fighter shortage in that sector .
They could have deployed more than this .
But refrain from doing so.


Yes .Abhinandan chased PAF across the LoC itself was a wrong move either he ignored the threat or like you said lack of situational awarness .
But we had at least one more mig 21 there,it returned safely.
So more proabability is it was Abhninadan own decision anyway to use that opportunity .

Indian Media is a total waste .
There is a reason that our PM always avoid our media.And they amount of stupidity they are saying in defence related matters is kind of embarassing.
They dont know difference between SoW and SAM

DG ISPR stated two migs' were targeted one fell in Azad Kashmir the other in IOK. There was another plane that went down in Badgam around the same time. Could this have been the second plane that was struck?
I dont have any problem with the IAF hiding its losses as this is traditional way of war. You dont show your losses to keep the morale of the forces and masses up. That is fine by me and PAF has done it when the AWACs were hit.
However the Indian attempts to show a 16/52 down is hilarious as there is no wreckage to be found on either side of the border. Interestingly the US has also not commented after necessary and preliminary inquiries. In this day of mobile phones with cameras nothing that is in public domain can be hidden. Since there is no wreckage to be found and the incident did not occur inside a compound but in full public eyem it is plausible that the loss id a fabrication.
Anyways eventually the truth will come out.
A

 

[amardeep mishra]

It doesn't matters if India is 'ready' (BMD, radars, satellites etc), going first has the chance of reducing inflicted damage a few times over. The problem is, Pakistan can counter this relatively easily by increasing robustness and mobility of its first strike elements, to restore the strategic balance. However as I've been advocating, the result of these shifts in posture will lead both countries towards instability vis a vis launch readiness. It is absolutely not worth it.

Hi @The Deterrent
It does matter because, without the physical infrastructure in place there can be no materialization of the new doctrine. And some of these things we are talking about here take time to mature- for instance the BMD/SSBN patrols etc. My main point here is, you are being overly paranoid here. It will still take India a good 5-8 years before some of these systems mature to the level where it can instill confidence in higher echelon to undertake a change in doctrine. As for Pakistani ability to counter it, I am afraid a lot will depend on the financial capabilities and technological sharing agreement with China. Remember the fact that India is undertaking a massive modernization of her nuclear strike posture (viz the cannisterization, SSBN, ultra long range tracking systems, miniaturization of composite rocket motors etc) has an added effect that it WILL force Pakistan to spend disproportionately more funds towards her own nuclear program. Also regardless of what a lot of people claim here, India spends a lot less as a percentage of her GDP on defence vis-a-vis Pakistan. The real figure hardly ever exceeded 2% of GDP whereas for Pakistan it is officially 3.5-3.7% of GDP and unofficially much more higher. As a result India can sustain the defence spending to the tune of $60-70bn annually without straining too much, however the same is not true for Pakistan. I am afraid I have digressed too much!

And how would you take out the subs?
Each sub is capable of firing upto 16 of cruise missiles.

In the end of day i feel sorry for such large and diverse country to be war with Pakistan over a forceful occupation of Kashmir ....most indians havent seen, talked to, relate to or understand kashmiris ...
Doesnt seem worth it..
I never really understood early why until i met indian here and around the world...
Indians are simply extremists...

Any first wave preemptive nuclear strike will be replied too..it will be foolish to think that india will be able to take out all of Pakistan

Even if from some "vodoo" magic indians are able to get away with it say good bye to indian punjab due to radiations and utter pardash..combined they present 30% indian population ...

End result just by unilateral nuking Pakistan will result in more indian deaths due to fall out

Hi @ziaulislam
You see the problem with being sentimental is that you lose track of your main issues. No need to get sentimental. You're right that most of India is not obsessed with Kashmir-- however that is not the case with Pakistan. But that is not how things work in real life. Anyways, let me answer it categorically without going over to politics- which I do not personally admire. First off, as for the subs, India has acquired/acquiring 12 P-8i ASW plane and eventually plans to have a fleet of 24 such ASW aircraft in the long run. Now, With that kind of number, it will be very difficult for Pakistan to hide their 039s. Similarly there will be 11 Kamorta/follow on stealthy ASW corvettes specializing in sub hunting roles. PN subs will have tough time dealing with a combined ASW asset of IN in the form of P-8i, Kamorta, Ka-28/31 etc.
As for the missile strikes, the cruise missiles can be detected by aerostat mounted look down radars. India already has a couple of these and is planning to form the network grid using this radar along the border. This will take away the low flying advantage of CMs and will provide healthy window for the interceptors to intercept the CMs.
http://www.iai.co.il/Sip_Storage//FILES/6/41636.pdf
This miniaturized system can detect a typical fighter jet at over 250kms so detecting a CM would not be a trouble at over 100kms-- which is a pretty healthy window to initiate counter fire to intercept the CM.
http://www.iai.co.il/2013/36562-46434-en/ELTA - Systems by Product Lines.aspx

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=395244447976582

Its still weird why would spice miss.. Its an excellent and smart weapon ..it has an 80km range...may be it wasnt launched at optimum height and speed..or intel was wrong and target were not selected

Also, kindly quote relevant people with masters or PhD in international relations or those who have worked in the diplomatic circles. Do you really think it is wise to quote a writer on matters of diplomacy, war and international politics? Arundhati roy has perhaps the same level of credibility as Mr Tarek Fateh (both claim left leaning and both have a rabid hatred for the majority).

 

[Sine Nomine]

The leak is not just about Thunder. It is extremely wide ranging. Wait for my next thread.

Do tag me.

 

[macnurv]

Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
We dont want war .It will affect our economy.
So in sense we tactically absorb the retaliation of Pakistan without compromising our security .
We also knows that everyone was looking for war especially some foreign vested interests .
Because that is good for their business.

I

 

[Ahmet Pasha]

For Q3. Our strike packave stayed in our airspace and never entered yours.
Your hotshot Abhinanananananandan and the SU30 came in hot pursuit for a cup of tea and was handed over after 24 hours.

 

[SrNair]

DG ISPR stated two migs' were targeted one fell in Azad Kashmir the other in IOK. There was another plane that went down in Badgam around the same time. Could this have been the second plane that was struck?
I dont have any problem with the IAF hiding its losses as this is traditional way of war. You dont show your losses to keep the morale of the forces and masses up. That is fine by me and PAF has done it when the AWACs were hit.
However the Indian attempts to show a 16/52 down is hilarious as there is no wreckage to be found on either side of the border. Interestingly the US has also not commented after necessary and preliminary inquiries. In this day of mobile phones with cameras nothing that is in public domain can be hidden. Since there is no wreckage to be found and the incident did not occur inside a compound but in full public eyem it is plausible that the loss id a fabrication.
Anyways eventually the truth will come out.
A

We have a Parliamentary Accounts Committee in India .
That committee can summon even PM for questioning .
You know what I mean .The supposed powerful PM is also have to answer the Parliament let alone Triservice Chiefs.

So if there is a single life loss life or the machine ( their service is also important) during a conflict ,they have to acknowledged that ,whether there is a morale in their or not.
After Balakot strike ,the relatives of Pulwama victim asked for bodies picture ,something that will never happen in other nations.
This is India .
Hiding is not an option but disaster in India especially when it deals with national security

You are right .Nothing can cover during this moblie phone era .That is why the video was circulated when three pilots parachuted to Azad Kashmir including Abhinandan .
Two other chutes were 'unknown'
and Mig is single seat and All Su returned to base after it spoofs AIM.

 

[Thorough Pro]

That probably is now the fall back position. If India did not want war, they would never have crossed LOC. If indian planners/leadership thought Pakistan will not respond to it's air violations and bombing by IAF, then that only points to utter incompetence and a very casual and dangerous play with a potent adversary.

Intelligence failure probably not .
Because everyone was expecting some kind of retaliation from Pakistan .
So you can understand how much alert they will be .
What we can say about that development it was a calculated yet a standard low risk response to deescalate the situation.
Any way our mission was terrorists not Pakistan or its military .

Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
We dont want war .It will affect our economy.
So in sense we tactically absorb the retaliation of Pakistan without compromising our security .
We also knows that everyone was looking for war especially some foreign vested interests .
Because that is good for their business.

 

[SrNair]

That probably is now the fall back position. If India did not want war, they would never have crossed LOC. If indian planners/leadership thought Pakistan will not respond to it's air violations and bombing by IAF, then that only points to utter incompetence and a very casual and dangerous play with a potent adversary.

India crossed the border because we want to eliminate terrorists .
And we anticiptated everything except Abhinadab courage