Hi
@The Deterrent
You seem to be relying too much on Dr Vipin Narang's evaluation of the situation. I dont think India's nuclear posture has changed, I might be wrong though. It might not be completely wrong to assume that India has re-calibrated or retuned her posture vis-a-vis Pakistan. India might undertake, and that's a BIG MIGHT, comprehensive first counter force strike if she felt that a nuclear strike from Pakistan is imminent. Previously the thinking was that India would absorb the first strike before retaliating, however post 2010 period, with sustained economic growth, the stakes have increased so much for India that it cant risk loosing major urban and industrial centers and this reflects in the thought process of higher echelon (folks like Shivshankar Menon, ex NSA: a very fine diplomat with a legacy) that India will not allow Pakistan to go first. However being realistic I feel a lot needs to be done before this thinking can be effectively materialized into a formal doctrine. For instance it would still take India couple of years before "continuous around the year deterrent patrol" can be undertaken. Similarly, a host of ultra long range radars need to be in place (some are already in place) to track the trajectory of each and every missile tested or fired by Pakistan. I am talking about ranges of >800kms. These radars are not swordfish/greenpine, but LRDE's very own- similar to VC 11184 program.
View attachment 548301
What is also very important is around the clock monitoring of Pakistani launch sites, now remote sensing satellites are fine, however they cant replace a proper SAR satellite, it is for this reason that a few SAR satellites in X-band and C_band are required for around the clock monitoring in all weather conditions. At the end comes the kinetic means of taking out adversary's nuclear potential. This has already been alluded to in the form of Brahmos etc.
Dr. Vipin Narang only scratched the surface, sticking to statements and weapon capabilities. I've held this view for a couple years now, and only recently began talking about it here and there due to increase in 'activities'. My post covers the same, none of it has been talked about by anyone.
Of course, as you pointed out, India will not allow Pakistan to go first. This was not the case before, which is exactly my point. This is a MASSIVE change in posture. It doesn't matters if India is 'ready' (BMD, radars, satellites etc), going first has the chance of reducing inflicted damage a few times over. The problem is, Pakistan can counter this relatively easily by increasing robustness and mobility of its first strike elements, to restore the strategic balance. However as I've been advocating, the result of these shifts in posture will lead both countries towards instability vis a vis launch readiness. It is absolutely not worth it.
Launching Cruise missiles At Pakistan? So do you think PAF response would have been These Dummy Strikes we did in response to a Cruise Missile Strike on Pakistani soil? Or are you assuming Babur and Raad are just concept Arts?. A well coordinated Bhramos strike would have meant WAR. Both India and Pakistan have much to worry about from each other to be precise. What everyone is celebrating about Humiliation of Indian Childish Narrative of Pushing the Red lines further and further not expecting anything in return imitating itself as USAF. Not Conventional Superiority over India
Relax, war is not fought on calculators. Capability to carefully proportionately escalate the situation is a MUST when it comes to nuclear foes. Otherwise the thresholds remain low and its MAD from the beginning.
Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
Are you seriously advocating that IAF deliberately 'allowed' Pakistan to hit back, with major success?
Little birdie tells me that W/C Abhinandan may share honours with PAF/PA AD.
@The Deterrent
My final statement on this platform till a far off future date:
"In the fog of war, your AWACS, AEW & C and your platforms have the IFF. Alas, the missiles in air, do not."
I think you have your answers there.
To add to that, PAF used a DA20 EW aircraft during the strike. That might answer some of your questions as well.
have some self respect in what you writing here. right guy
your stupid jungle strike. got you endless humiliation the reality of your strength is average. for all to see
Your western ally’s are embarrassed of you now. they realised your not a champ but a useless chump
your military power is no more than Pakistan’s is! No killer punch then
better, just to learn be quite and except your place is right now with Pakistan.
it’s none threatening you are losing men on loc everyday now. you talk about your su30 squadrons who went missing everybody new Pakistan’s retaliation was coming?
blaming business and outsiders for your failures
When that adrenaline rush is over, try to analyze how lucky PAF and Pakistan have been in this skirmish.
1 - The Indian never ventured deep in to Pakistan airspace. There are two evidence/narratives available to support it.
A- DG ISPR said Indian jets were within 2/4 km in to Pakistan airspace.
B- In one of the articles I shared earlier on the forum, an Indian sources declared on condition of anonmity that IAF jets never crossed the LoC. They fired the Spice 2000 from Indian Airspace as stand off weapons.
2- According to the Pakistani sources Pakistani jets were sent to intercept and due to their threat the Indian jets off loaded their cargo quickly before fleeing.
3- In the light of the above information coming from official/or supposedly official sources it is more likely than not that the targets were missed due to the potential danger faced by IAF on 26th from Pakistani interceptor rather than because of any technical reasons or intentions.
If hitting the targets were not in Indians planning they would have not made it an issue. The amount of criticism India got from around the world for misleading the world on what targets it hit, makes it counter productive to make such claims.
The desperation shown by Indian media subsequently to create unfathomable excuses shows that hitting the targets with full force was definitely planned by India, but they failed to execute them due to the pressure applied on them by PAF.
It has been revealed on this forum by someone who is supposedly in the know that the PAF pilots were instructed not to shot down IAF planes on 26th. I can not vouch for that, but if that were the instructions given by high command, I don't agree with them, I think a massive mistake had been made, it gives completely the wrong signal to the enemy.
-Um I mentioned nowhere that IAF penetrated deep inside Pakistan.
-Highly likely that SPICE-2000s were meant to hit 100-200m off the target, they are autonomous weapons. If any error was there while launching or if they were released in a 'hurry', they would have landed a few kms away. If dumped the payload to bug out, then they wouldn't have armed them.
-So far the attempted strike has been able to achieve the objective at home for BJP and abroad against Pakistan. If it continues to be that way, then it doesn't matters if the strike is proven missed.
-That's BS, as long as enemy fighter aircraft is in Pakistani territory, it is cleared to be shot down. However if its already bugging out and is a few kms away from the border, then the shoot-down is risky because the wreckage may crash in enemy territory, leading to the enemy claiming that it was falsely shot down. In all likelihood, PAF didn't have enough assets in the air at the time of incursion.
.
