February 2019 Indo/Pak Standoff - Unanswered Questions

[amardeep mishra]

Exactly. There are all indications that India is preparing itself for a comprehensive counter-force strike, not only dependent on BrahMos. Indian SFC now operates more than 15x hardened tunneled storage facilities, some of them combining launch capability within themselves. Also IAF is building extremely survivable HASs (approx 4m thick layering of RC & metal) in all forward airbases, which only a direct nuclear hit can take out.

Whether their calculations are correct or not, is up to us. In any case, these developments can quickly lead to a use-it-or-lose-it scenario in case of an attempted CF strike.

Hi @The Deterrent
You seem to be relying too much on Dr Vipin Narang's evaluation of the situation. I dont think India's nuclear posture has changed, I might be wrong though. It might not be completely wrong to assume that India has re-calibrated or retuned her posture vis-a-vis Pakistan. India might undertake, and that's a BIG MIGHT, comprehensive first counter force strike if she felt that a nuclear strike from Pakistan is imminent. Previously the thinking was that India would absorb the first strike before retaliating, however post 2010 period, with sustained economic growth, the stakes have increased so much for India that it cant risk loosing major urban and industrial centers and this reflects in the thought process of higher echelon (folks like Shivshankar Menon, ex NSA: a very fine diplomat with a legacy) that India will not allow Pakistan to go first. However being realistic I feel a lot needs to be done before this thinking can be effectively materialized into a formal doctrine. For instance it would still take India couple of years before "continuous around the year deterrent patrol" can be undertaken. Similarly, a host of ultra long range radars need to be in place (some are already in place) to track the trajectory of each and every missile tested or fired by Pakistan. I am talking about ranges of >800kms. These radars are not swordfish/greenpine, but LRDE's very own- similar to VC 11184 program.

What is also very important is around the clock monitoring of Pakistani launch sites, now remote sensing satellites are fine, however they cant replace a proper SAR satellite, it is for this reason that a few SAR satellites in X-band and C_band are required for around the clock monitoring in all weather conditions. At the end comes the kinetic means of taking out adversary's nuclear potential. This has already been alluded to in the form of Brahmos etc.

 

[ziaulislam]

There are no answers for majority of them.

Two pertinent questions what was the second aircraft that fell and what happened to mi17

Very dangerous and can be very escalatory...however this is one aspect that can't be ruled out, should there is another terror attack...from an Indian point of view, no matter who is in power...another big terror attack and sitting PM should either resign for good or else give a nod...dangerous times ahead



So many issues with your bold part...first of all...for some reason we believe that casualty is a bigger issue in using air power...no it is simply not...bigger issue is breaching air space...if something hasn't happened for last 48 years then it has to be a big deal no?? We kill(sorry for sounding cold) more people and cause much more damage to infra, on daily basis simply by rockets all along LOC and sometimes even IB....What you think is bigger issue for India or Pakistan? Killing people/damage to Infra or breaching air space and doing nothing? Secondly, anyone in his right mind would know that PAF was pretty much on high alert...which means, an operation for mere photo shop moment, had all the dangers. So risking your fighters, pilots with purpose of killing trees is absolute nonsense...and pretty much saying that our forces are now politically inclined, which to me is even bigger nonsense...now if you are with me so far, then logic pretty much says, neither PAF came in for "sending a message" nor did IAF. If Balakot speciality was indeed a terrorist camp, then SPICE 2000 bombs have indeed been fired, penetrated their target and did what it is supposed to. If anyone was inside then there is nothing left, if no one was inside then our intelligence has to start from scratch...however believing that any Airforce will risk million dollar machines and men, just to send a message, especially when other side is on high alert is absolute crap.

@Pakistani Friends
It might have been answered somewhere however initial reports came in that two Indian pilots were in Pakistan custody and one in hospital, later they changed it to only 1 pilot(Abhinandan)..has there been any explanation as to why/how this goof up happened?

There is a simple and resoanble explanation for that much much more reasonable than what indians are cooking
Abhi was taken at broader in good condition that was reported to DG ISPR than he was taken to thhe hospital for some injuries and a second report came in. This was rectified pretty quickly

The missing link is eye witness telling about second aircraft and pilot ..so whose aircraft went down. Or eye witnwss are wrong?
We know indians didnt shoot it down as claiming abhi did it is been debunked as all of the AAM are intact on his plane and indians never claimed it strongly any way

 

[sparten]

Im more and more convinced this was an intel failure on Indian NSA specifically Doval otherwise the IAF would not have been caught with its guard down. What surprises me is that like our side IAF command recieves thick dossiers on intel on us and yet only put up the standard response?

You can have the best intel on the planet, it’s uselsss if your analysis is off
Our intelligence predicted Indian moves in ‘71 pretty well. Our analysis and political decision making were off.

Israel’s has had many disasters despite Mossad getting good intel. Their innate racism has hit them in their derrières many times.

And political and ideological blinkers are the worst. And Doval has a big case of it.

 

[Zhukov]

Which is why I am repeating the mantra of celebrating too much. This was likely not the best IAF could have done(out of complacency due to their own maliaised national thought process since this government and self-aggrandizement mentality came in a few years ago).

A coordinated Brahmos strike would have a shock and awe affect on us for which we are unprepared.

Launching Cruise missiles At Pakistan? So do you think PAF response would have been These Dummy Strikes we did in response to a Cruise Missile Strike on Pakistani soil? Or are you assuming Babur and Raad are just concept Arts?. A well coordinated Bhramos strike would have meant WAR. Both India and Pakistan have much to worry about from each other to be precise. What everyone is celebrating about Humiliation of Indian Childish Narrative of Pushing the Red lines further and further not expecting anything in return imitating itself as USAF. Not Conventional Superiority over India

 

[SrNair]

Im more and more convinced this was an intel failure on Indian NSA specifically Doval otherwise the IAF would not have been caught with its guard down. What surprises me is that like our side IAF command recieves thick dossiers on intel on us and yet only put up the standard response?


Regarding the last para, perhaps multiple people citing the same event?
Debris being mistaken and then reports of Abhinandan coming from different quarters could have caused the confusion.

I am quite convinced of no F-16 loss due to a close personal connection(almost as if my own brother was flying that day) but whether a PAF loss occured or 2nd IAF loss is confirmed is really upto some serious investigave journalism.

Even AFM has done a piecemeal job of reporting losses on both sides based on media and less on official accounts.

Intelligence failure probably not .
Because everyone was expecting some kind of retaliation from Pakistan .
So you can understand how much alert they will be .
What we can say about that development it was a calculated yet a standard low risk response to deescalate the situation.
Any way our mission was terrorists not Pakistan or its military .

Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
We dont want war .It will affect our economy.
So in sense we tactically absorb the retaliation of Pakistan without compromising our security .
We also knows that everyone was looking for war especially some foreign vested interests .
Because that is good for their business.

 

[Imran Khan]

modi want a little drama to win elections PAF drag him down to real conflict its been one month modi deol licking the wounds like dogs

 

[alee92nawaz]

Two pertinent questions what was the second aircraft that fell and what happened to mi17


There is a simple and resoanble explanation for that much much more reasonable than what indians are cooking
Abhi was taken at broader in good condition that was reported to DG ISPR than he was taken to thhe hospital for some injuries and a second report came in. This was rectified pretty quickly

The missing link is eye witness telling about second aircraft and pilot ..so whose aircraft went down. Or eye witnwss are wrong?
We know indians didnt shoot it down as claiming abhi did it is been debunked as all of the AAM are intact on his plane and indians never claimed it strongly any way

I wish he explains the second pilot.

 

[Hellfire]

I wish he explains the second pilot.

Why bother? Israeli, Indian .. take your pick. Just disregard any insinuation of being - PAF.
In the eagerness to post updates, ISPR (did not) messed up.

Little birdie tells me that W/C Abhinandan may share honours with PAF/PA AD.

@The Deterrent

My final statement on this platform till a far off future date:

"In the fog of war, your AWACS, AEW & C and your platforms have the IFF. Alas, the missiles in air, do not."

I think you have your answers there.

@Oscar

For you too.

Cheers and out for a very long time.

 

[kingQamaR]

Intelligence failure probably not .
Because everyone was expecting some kind of retaliation from Pakistan .
So you can understand how much alert they will be .
What we can say about that development it was a calculated yet a standard low risk response to deescalate the situation.
Any way our mission was terrorists not Pakistan or its military .

Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
We dont want war .It will affect our economy.
So in sense we tactically absorb the retaliation of Pakistan without compromising our security .
We also knows that everyone was looking for war especially some foreign vested interests .
Because that is good for their business.

have some self respect in what you writing here. right guy

your stupid jungle strike. got you endless humiliation the reality of your strength is average. for all to see

Your western ally’s are embarrassed of you now. they realised your not a champ but a useless chump

your military power is no more than Pakistan’s is! No killer punch then

better, just to learn be quite and except your place is right now with Pakistan.

it’s none threatening you are losing men on loc everyday now. you talk about your su30 squadrons who went missing everybody new Pakistan’s retaliation was coming?

blaming business and outsiders for your failures

 

[ziaulislam]

Intelligence failure probably not .
Because everyone was expecting some kind of retaliation from Pakistan .
So you can understand how much alert they will be .
What we can say about that development it was a calculated yet a standard low risk response to deescalate the situation.
Any way our mission was terrorists not Pakistan or its military .

Lets assume this , suppose if we deployed SAM systems or twice stronger squadrons of Su 30 or Mig 29 in that sector .
You know what would be the result and if the Pak strike package will suffer serious casualities,next development would be the declaration of war from the Pakistan side .
We dont want war .It will affect our economy.
So in sense we tactically absorb the retaliation of Pakistan without compromising our security .
We also knows that everyone was looking for war especially some foreign vested interests .
Because that is good for their business.

I mean really ...is that your explanation !?

 

[SrNair]

have some self respect in what you writing here. right guy

your stupid jungle strike. got you endless humiliation the reality of your strength is average. for all to see

Your western ally’s are embarrassed of you now. they realised your not a champ but a useless chump

your military power is no more than Pakistan’s is! No killer punch then

better, just to learn be quite and except your place is right now with Pakistan.

it’s none threatening you are losing men on loc everyday now. you talk about your su30 squadrons who went missing everybody new Pakistan’s retaliation was coming?

blaming business and outsiders for your failures

The thread is started by respected men.
Hope they will not entertain clowns like you here

 

[MystryMan]

Asalam - O - Alikum
One can say this time it was a "controlled conflict". Will it be the same in future i think not. Both sides used air-force & SOWs and thats that. it is not much of use to discuss all these what if scenarios now.

We have to remember that in Pak-India scenario escalation ladder can only go upwards as public pressure/embarrassment shapes the military strategy/response.

By the way any senior member has any reliable info about the LOC operation by land forces ?? especially on the night of 27th and 28th Feb. Rumor mills have churned out a lot of crap on internet about that.

Allah Hafiz
------------

Yep. Most of the discussion focussed on Air engagements of those days.

 

[deckingraj]

Asalam - O - Alikum
One can say this time it was a "controlled conflict". Will it be the same in future i think not. Both sides used air-force & SOWs and thats that. it is not much of use to discuss all these what if scenarios now.

We have to remember that in Pak-India scenario escalation ladder can only go upwards as public pressure/embarrassment shapes the military strategy/response.

By the way any senior member has any reliable info about the LOC operation by land forces ?? especially on the night of 27th and 28th Feb. Rumor mills have churned out a lot of crap on internet about that.

Allah Hafiz
------------

I cant agree more on bold part. Precedents have been set and GOI would be hard pressed to not go hard should there is another significant terror attack. So region will again find itself in boil sooner or later...

Two pertinent questions what was the second aircraft that fell and what happened to mi17


There is a simple and resoanble explanation for that much much more reasonable than what indians are cooking
Abhi was taken at broader in good condition that was reported to DG ISPR than he was taken to thhe hospital for some injuries and a second report came in. This was rectified pretty quickly

The missing link is eye witness telling about second aircraft and pilot ..so whose aircraft went down. Or eye witnwss are wrong?
We know indians didnt shoot it down as claiming abhi did it is been debunked as all of the AAM are intact on his plane and indians never claimed it strongly any way

If you think it was rectified pretty quickly then sure, however it went all the way to President and "quick" didn't see to be that quick. Lesson learnt for DGP ISPR should be to realize Pakistan official communication is not some social media. Verify facts then open mouth. IN the same token, Indian side, pretty much gone silent. In the initial hours only source of Information fed to Indian public was from Pakistan side. Good thing is that, even our Defence Minister acknowledged and i do see some work done, in handling such situations much better.

 

[alee92nawaz]

Why bother? Israeli, Indian .. take your pick. Just disregard any insinuation of being - PAF.
In the eagerness to post updates, ISPR (did not) messed up.

Little birdie tells me that W/C Abhinandan may share honours with PAF/PA AD.

@The Deterrent

My final statement on this platform till a far off future date:

"In the fog of war, your AWACS, AEW & C and your platforms have the IFF. Alas, the missiles in air, do not."

I think you have your answers there.

@Oscar

For you too.

Cheers and out for a very long time.

Can someone translate this to English?

 

[Hellfire]

Can someone translate this to English?

Good one.