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(Fake data) Foreign Experts - India’s GDP growth should be 1.5% only

kkacer

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11 June 2012

Last week India published its Jan-Mar 2012 quarter GDP, with real growth headlined at 5.3%. However, a detailed study of the data indicates a gaping hole in imports data. The GDP data, published by the Ministry of Statistics shows imports growing at a nominal rate of 8.7% and a real rate of 2.0% for the quarter compared to the same period of last year. However, if one looks at data on merchandize imports from the Ministry of Commerce, imports have grown at 35% to 40% for goods, partly due to sharp depreciation of the Indian Rupee. There is no indication that Services imports have fallen so sharply as to reduce the growth rate of total imports to 8%.

This sounds like a grave data error leading to a published current account surplus of 2% of GDP in the quarter against a 2% deficit in the same quarter of the last year. This error of 4%, unless compensated somewhere, should lead to reduction in headline GDP growth to about 1.5%.

We believe that this error is compensated partly in low reported growth in investments at 9.3% nominal and 3.6% real yoy. Bank credit in India has grown by 17% for the year ended 31st March 2012. This does not tally with the 9% nominal growth in investment, and the gap is too big between these two data points and also other physical indicators.

Hence, we believe that when the Ministry of Statistics corrects the errors in the import data, it will revise upwards other components, mainly investments, and to some extent consumption, and the GDP growth will be finally headlined between 3.5% to 4.5%, which will tally with many other physical and nominal indicators followed by Decimal Point Analytics..

However, the question remains on the quality of data coming from the Government of India. We have seen a sharp deterioration in the dependability of data since the middle of 2009 and the only reason that we can ascribe to this is sheer incompetence.


http://www.decimalpointanalytics.com/Weekly Digest/Weekly Digest_11June2012.pdf

cheater india gov confirmed by experts! :tdown:
 
11 June 2012

Last week India published its Jan-Mar 2012 quarter GDP, with real growth headlined at 5.3%. However, a detailed study of the data indicates a gaping hole in imports data. The GDP data, published by the Ministry of Statistics shows imports growing at a nominal rate of 8.7% and a real rate of 2.0% for the quarter compared to the same period of last year. However, if one looks at data on merchandize imports from the Ministry of Commerce, imports have grown at 35% to 40% for goods, partly due to sharp depreciation of the Indian Rupee. There is no indication that Services imports have fallen so sharply as to reduce the growth rate of total imports to 8%.

This sounds like a grave data error leading to a published current account surplus of 2% of GDP inthe quarter against a 2% deficit in the same quarter of the last year. This error of 4%, unless compensated somewhere, should lead to reduction in headline GDP growth to about 1.5%.

We believe that this error is compensated partly in low reported growth in investments at 9.3% nominal and 3.6% real yoy. Bank credit in India has grown by 17% for the year ended 31st March 2012. This does not tally with the 9% nominal growth in investment, and the gap is too big between these two data points and also other physical indicators.

Hence, we believe that when the Ministry of Statistics corrects the errors in the import data, it will revise upwards other components, mainly investments, and to some extent consumption, and the GDP growth will be finally headlined between 3.5% to 4.5%, which will tally with many other physical and nominal indicators followed by Decimal Point Analytics..

However, the question remains on the quality of data coming from the Government of India. We have seen a sharp deterioration in the dependability of data since the middle of 2009 and the only reason that we can ascribe to this is sheer incompetence.


http://www.decimalpointanalytics.com/Weekly Digest/Weekly Digest_11June2012.pdf

cheater india gov confirmed by experts! :tdown:

wtf u even made a webpage for it, did u earn 2$ extra for that..
 
u crazy brah??/
foreign experts just tell the truth. the question remains on the quality of data coming from the Government of India. We have seen a sharp deterioration in the dependability of data since the middle of 2009 and the only reason that we can ascribe to this is sheer incompetence.

sharp deterioration in the dependability of data = big cheater or incompetent india gov or both :tdown:
 
foreign experts just tell the truth. the question remains on the quality of data coming from the Government of India. We have seen a sharp deterioration in the dependability of data since the middle of 2009 and the only reason that we can ascribe to this is sheer incompetence.

sharp deterioration in the dependability of data = big cheater or incompetent india gov or both :tdown:

u need treatment.
 
Personally, I wouldn't mind if India had 50% growth rate, as long as the money was spent on the people not weapons.

no one gives a damit what u want or think. we know our country and what we r doing. our money is spent on the right things. dont poke ur advice onto us. keep it to urself.

btw i wont mid if pakistan had -50% growth and spent 50 bill on weapons instead of depositing it in swiss banks.
 
Everyone knows the Indian regime lies about its numbers.
This just confirms it without a shadow of a doubt. Even their own economists don't believe their numbers, that's how fraudulent those numbers are. It's an utter farce.

The regime knows its corruption will bring its tyranny to an end if it can't give high GDP numbers.
They falsify their numbers to grab foreign investors.
Even their official figures show their industrial production declined yet for some crazy reason they magically had 5.3% GDP numbers. Yea right. Like they expect the world to believe that.
Btw India's debt is much higher than what they officially publish, they have massive debt off the balance sheets to hide their true economic situation. That is why their currency is collapsing when their official debt to GDP is 70%. That kind of level don't cause your currency to collapse like it has. India's real debt is multiple times their official debt, it's MASSIVE.

Remember how they tried to cover up the disastrous commonwealth games? the world exposed them superbly. India got utterly humiliated and their image got tarnished.
If they are willing to cover up such a fraud, just imagine how much they lie about their economic numbers to keep the masses and foreign investors happy.

Indians are the most untrustworthy people in the world.
 
Indian has been boasting it's economy is, though only about 1/4 the size of China's, more self-reliable for long time. When the financial crisis comes, however it's growth fells more severely than China's.
 

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