Exports to India on downwards spiral

[Perpendicular]

IsLAMABAD: The government has admitted that Pakistan’s exports with its neighbouring countries have been sliding since 2012-13.

As the trade liberalisation agenda has been put on the back burner, the gains made through trade liberalisation with India have started to reverse, official statistics show.

During first eleven months of FY2015-16, the volume of bilateral trade with India was less than recorded during FY2012-13, according to the information provided by the Ministry of Commerce to the National Assembly recently.

The volume of bilateral trade amounted to Rs206 billion during July-May of the last fiscal year, the ministry said. It was Rs232.6 billion during FY2012-13 – the first year after trade liberalisation.

Pakistan, in 2012, took a giant step by replacing the Positive List of 1,946 items, which could be imported from India, with the Negative List of roughly 1,250, which cannot be traded.

As per the figures provided to the Lower House of parliament, there is a constant decline – both in imports and exports – since 2012-13. The export value was Rs35.5 billion during FY2013-14 which jumped to Rs46.4 billion during FY2014-15, but during FY2015-16, it started squeezing to Rs41.5 billion.

Similarly, the import value has also witnessed a downward trend – from Rs197.2 billion during FY2012-13 to Rs162.0 billion up to May 2016.

Surprisingly, besides India, Pakistan’s exports value is also witnessing a decline since 2012-13. The statistics stated that the downward trend is also vivid in exports with Afghanistan, China, and Iran.

The export value of trade with China was Rs260 billion during FY2012-13. It has slipped to Rs162 billion during 2016. While the Chinese import value of trade with Pakistan has seen a whopping increase – from Rs722 billion during FY2012-13 to Rs1.11 trillion till May 2016.

Our exports volume with Afghanistan was Rs183 billion during FY2012-13, but it came down to Rs140 billion during FY2015-16. Similarly, with Pakistan, Iran’s export value was Rs9.4 billion in that specific period and it has also started going down till May 2016 which is Rs3.4 billion.

The ministry has also stated that the value of exports through the border with Iran has currently come to zero from Rs36 million in 2012-13.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 10th, 2016.

 

[Max Pain]

Thats alarming,
as the economy is back in track those trade numbers shouldve reversed and in no way our exports should be declining but thats how its going.

 

[Deepika Maheshwari]

Most of the projects take time before yielding results. As far as I know, power projects from CPEC will begin supplies from 2018-19. I guess that will help boost production in power hungry factories such as Cotton works.

 

[LA se Karachi]

I don't mind the decline in exports to India. The decline in exports to other countries, however, are unfortunate though. Hopefully an improving energy situation, a faster growing economy, and CPEC will help reverse this trend in the coming years.

 

[dray]

Let me guess....the massive inflow of Chinese goods into Pakistan is forcing the local manufacturing units to shut shop....and lesser production is resulting into lesser exports.

 

[Deepika Maheshwari]

I don't mind the decline in exports to India. The decline in exports to other countries, however, are unfortunate though. Hopefully an improving energy situation, a faster growing economy, and CPEC will help reverse this trend in the coming years.

A dollar is a dollar, right? Does it matter it comes from India or China?

 

[Star Wars]

Let me guess....the massive inflow of Chinese goods into Pakistan is forcing the local manufacturing units to shut shop....and lesser production is resulting into lesser exports.

Pretty much, Does not help CPEC uses Chinese goods, Chinese workers, Chinese materials and Chinese everything...

 

[Skull and Bones]

Let me guess....the massive inflow of Chinese goods into Pakistan is forcing the local manufacturing units to shut shop....and lesser production is resulting into lesser exports.

In the early 2000s, there were talks about opening up the Nathu La pass for India-Chinese trade, and i remember the protests by local SMEs. Glad that it didn't went through.

 

[LA se Karachi]

A dollar is a dollar, right? Does it matter it comes from India or China?

Yes, but my point was that there are other fish in the sea. I wouldn't mind Pakistan being less dependent on its larger neighbor (no matter how little they trade), with whom relations are not always good.

 

[ghameed]

Pretty much, Does not help CPEC uses Chinese goods, Chinese workers, Chinese materials and Chinese everything...

I hope the Pakistanis worked this out with the Chinese , because economic exploitation has far more terrible implications than any goddamn war with us Indians

 

[Star Wars]

I hope the Pakistanis worked this out with the Chinese , because economic exploitation has far more terrible implications than any goddamn war with us Indians

Many of them(not all) are a bit too short sighted to see this. CPEC without any trade friendly restrictions in place will destroy Pakistani domestic industries..

 

[DesiGuy1403]

Yes, but my point was that there are other fish in the sea. I wouldn't mind Pakistan being less dependent on its larger neighbor (no matter how little they trade), with whom relations are not always good.

You think we give a damn?

Go and ahead and export to some one else. It's your people who are going to be impacted.
We couldn't care less either way..

 

[ghameed]

Yes, but my point was that there are other fish in the sea. I wouldn't mind Pakistan being less dependent on its larger neighbor (no matter how little they trade), with whom relations are not always good.

Never bring emotions into economics....take an example ...for all of India's and China's grandstanding theatrics and so called enemity , both of them know that India is going to be the largest consumer in the world in a decade or so ...and with India also jumping on to the manufacturing bus ....these two countries are going to be the largest trade partners in the world and the Chinese manufacturers know that ....so whatever happens they won't allow trade to get damaged between the two countries ....

 

[dilpakistani]

Declining Exports must be very serious concern... no matter what terms we have with India ... Trade must go on... Filipino hate Chinese more than Indians hate us.... but still those two countries are gradually increasing their trade...

 

[LA se Karachi]

You think we give a damn?

Go and ahead and export to some one else. It's your people who are going to be impacted.
We couldn't care less either way..

No one said that you cared. Please re-read my post. And I'm sure Pakistan will be fine. As I said, there are many other fish in the sea.