Exports to India hits record high

[mb444]

Unfortunately, inelastic demand for essential goods (mainly food-related products) is what is driving up imports from India as the cheapest source (offers lowest procurement and shipping costs). The only effective way to tackle this without driving up inflation is to produce substitutes locally.
We really need to transition away from subsistence farming and incentivise large scale, mechanised farming - this would have the dual benefit of multiplying crop yield while freeing up land for secondary and tertiary industries.

Absolutely agree on what you are saying.

 

[mb444]

This is far too simplistic a way to look at it.

Indian exports to BD are reaching a saturation point and they can only grow with BD economy and not as a percentage share of the total imports, unless India all of a sudden finds huge oil/gas reserves or moves decades up the technological ladder within a few years.

BD exports to India are nowhere near saturation point and it can keep growing many 10s of per cent a year till 2030 at least.

BD imports from India is around 20% of all it's imports.

Indian imports from BD make up just 0.3% of it's total imports. Plenty of room for BD to increase it's share here and I have talked about 10 billion US dollars by 2030 before as a realistic possibility.

The upcoming FTA will benefit the BD economy far more than the Indian one as nearly everything that India can export to BD it is already able to do so with little if any barriers.

BD cannot keep sustaining it's economic growth without close co-operation with India and any sensible government would have done similar trade arrangement with India.

Your position is logical although with a very positive spin.

An FTA is necessary but should only be signed if india truely reduces its tarrif and para tarrif barriers. And that is a big IF and we need to be careful and insist of formal and simple arbitration process to deal with any issues that may come up.

Given the relative size of the economies and the comparative advantages trade is never going to be equal between the countries but we can negotiate our way to less of an imbalance.

India has a history of aggresive protectionism, however we should negotiate in good faith and if it is reciprocated we should sign an FTA as it would be win win for both BD and india.

 

[UKBengali]

An FTA is necessary but should only be signed if india truely reduces its tarrif and para tarrif barriers. And that is a big IF and we need to be careful and insist of formal and simple arbitration process to deal with any issues that may come up.

That is the whole point of a FTA.

Anyway a lot of people are missing out on the fact that India has realised that protectionism has been holding it's economy back for decades.

India wants this FTA as it wants an economy(BD) that is more efficient giving it's somewhat inefficient companies some true competition which will force them to become more efficient.

Indian trade barriers have been coming down and BD exports to India have hit 2 billion US dollars last fiscal and so far this fiscal exports are up 20%.

 

[HydraChess]

India Exports to Bangladesh - 2024 Data 2025 Forecast 1988-2023 Historical

India Exports to Bangladesh was US$11.25 Billion during 2023, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. India Exports to Bangladesh - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on July of 2024.

tradingeconomics.com

Cotton 3.74 billions
Cereals 2.3 billions

Rest 9 billion is a laundry list of diverse exports.

Don't have data on imports...

 

[bluesky]

We really need to transition away from subsistence farming and incentivise large scale, mechanised farming - this would have the dual benefit of multiplying crop yield while freeing up land for secondary and tertiary industries.

BAL or any other govt party is not interested to modernize farming. The country adheres to subsistence farming, and the production/ yield remains low.

And to offset the food deficit the ruling party cronies are asked to import staple food items from India. In the process, the ruling party head and her/his ministers and related bureaucrats also get their Bakhra.

It has been continuing for many decades.

 

[Sliver]

No need to jump with joy because import from India also experienced similar growth rate. Import from India used to be 8-9 billion Dollar, now it has skyrocketed to 16 billion Dollar. This is much more detrimental to our trade balance than gaining from 1 billion to 2 billion Dollar export growth to India.

And, India is already exporting $16 billion worth of goods to BD and importing only $2 billion.

Do you think your fatherland India is not cheating our country?

in 2020
exports from china to BD -> 15B
exports from BD to China -> 750M

China (CHN) and Bangladesh (BGD) Trade | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Find the latest trade data and tariffs between China and Bangladesh.

oec.world

 

[bluesky]

in 2020
exports from china to BD -> 15B
exports from BD to China -> 750M

China (CHN) and Bangladesh (BGD) Trade | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

Find the latest trade data and tariffs between China and Bangladesh.

oec.world

China has offered BD to import more than 8000 items from it. But, BD has no industrial base to produce and export them.

While China keeps its border open for BD goods, India keeps its border closed to stop entry of BD goods.

So, the Indian attitude is quite opposite of the Chinese one.

 

[Turingsage]

While China keeps its border open for BD goods, India keeps its border closed to stop entry of BD goods.

That is a complete lie. BD goods have to pass stringent import controls that are more arbitrary than any India imposes.
Just because the draconian Chinese propaganda machine paints a fantasy about liberal import rules does not gel with the actual reality.
IF you do not continually praise the Chinese and tell absolute lies, they will make things extremely hot for BD.

BD exporters know the truth and bite their tongues.

 

[Sliver]

China has offered BD to import more than 8000 items from it. But, BD has no industrial base to produce and export them.

While China keeps its border open for BD goods, India keeps its border closed to stop entry of BD goods.

So, the Indian attitude is quite opposite of the Chinese one.

net net- no chance of BD exporting anything of value to China

and if BD joins the RCEP (Which it has already expressed the desire), there will be more imports from the mass manufacturer with huge economies of scale and industrial base - which BD cannot compete with and no recourse to stop.
you think BD can develop any in house companies to compete with that?

 

[Cheepek]

China has offered BD to import more than 8000 items from it. But, BD has no industrial base to produce and export them.

While China keeps its border open for BD goods, India keeps its border closed to stop entry of BD goods.

So, the Indian attitude is quite opposite of the Chinese one.

It's a lolipop China dangles to many countries, need some nuance.

 

[UKBengali]

That is a complete lie. BD goods have to pass stringent import controls that are more arbitrary than any India imposes.
Just because the draconian Chinese propaganda machine paints a fantasy about liberal import rules does not gel with the actual reality.
IF you do not continually praise the Chinese and tell absolute lies, they will make things extremely hot for BD.

BD exporters know the truth and bite their tongues.

Unfortunately some here see India as the bid bad boogeyman.

Facts are that BD exports to India are more than twice that to China and growing at many 10s of per cent a year. In fact some experts are already predicting a 50% hike in exports this year from 2 billion US dollars to 3 billion US dollars a year.

BD needs both India and China for it's economic growth and cutting one out would have the effect of making BD growth slow down and making its position via the other weaker.

Every country has its interests and BD's is to have good relations with both China and India. That is why BD is strictly neutral in any disputes between the two countries.

 

[bluesky]

net net- no chance of BD exporting anything of value to China

and if BD joins the RCEP (Which it has already expressed the desire), there will be more imports from the mass manufacturer with huge economies of scale and industrial base - which BD cannot compete with and no recourse to stop.
you think BD can develop any in house companies to compete with that?

BD has almost no industrial base except that low-value garments. BD certainly cannot establish other industries soon.

However, when China encourages more than 8000 industrial items for exports from BD, I guess China wants its technology companies to build shops/ factories in BD, produce all those goods, and export them to China.

My assumption is based on the Chinese knowledge of what products BD is producing already. Very few out of those 8000 products are being produced in BD.

 

[itsanufy]

China has offered BD to import more than 8000 items from it. But, BD has no industrial base to produce and export them.

While China keeps its border open for BD goods, India keeps its border closed to stop entry of BD goods.

So, the Indian attitude is quite opposite of the Chinese one.

So cute. So if it is with China no issues.

Question - Why you are importing from India though you have sooo much of trade deficit?
1. Cotton
2. Cereals
3. Naptha
4. Vehicles
5. Heavy Machinery
6. Iron and Steel

These above 6 categories comprise of around 75% of import from India.
1. You don't produce cotton, neither you have correct natural environment to produce cotton. And India cotton is cheapest for you. Its simple economics.
2. Around 80% of them are wheat, corn, Sorgum, Barley, Millet, Oats etc. Again you don't have correct natural environment to produce them. Again India's cereals are cheapest.
But why you import 900 million rice its a question to be asked. But historical data shows the BAL govt has done better than BNP in this respect.
3. You don't have capability of producing Naptha. Neither it makes economic sense to build a 20B plant for an usage of 1 B.
4. As you have told you have a very small market of vehicles. No economic sense to build a plant for domestic uses.
5. ...
6. You don't have sufficient ore to have a iron and steel plant.

Its on your interest that you trade with India, no one is shoving you to buy from us.
You have many options to buy. Why you are not going to them?

 

[bluesky]

So cute. So if it is with China no issues.

Question - Why you are importing from India though you have sooo much of trade deficit?
1. Cotton
2. Cereals
3. Naptha
4. Vehicles
5. Heavy Machinery
6. Iron and Steel

These above 6 categories comprise of around 75% of import from India.
1. You don't produce cotton, neither you have correct natural environment to produce cotton. And India cotton is cheapest for you. Its simple economics.
2. Around 80% of them are wheat, corn, Sorgum, Barley, Millet, Oats etc. Again you don't have correct natural environment to produce them. Again India's cereals are cheapest.
But why you import 900 million rice its a question to be asked. But historical data shows the BAL govt has done better than BNP in this respect.
3. You don't have capability of producing Naptha. Neither it makes economic sense to build a 20B plant for an usage of 1 B.
4. As you have told you have a very small market of vehicles. No economic sense to build a plant for domestic uses.
5. ...
6. You don't have sufficient ore to have a iron and steel plant.

Its on your interest that you trade with India, no one is shoving you to buy from us.
You have many options to buy. Why you are not going to them?

Probably, @Bilal9 can give answers to your inquisitiveness. But, the issue is not what you asked. The issue is why Indian Customs people put impediments to our goods when entering India.

India seems to be worried about our high-quality goods taking away Indian market shares.

 

[itsanufy]

Probably, @Bilal9 can give answers to your inquisitiveness. But, the issue is not what you asked. The issue is why Indian Customs people put impediments to our goods when entering India.

India seems to be worried about our high-quality goods taking away Indian market shares.

Its not inquisitiveness, hard fact. If you cant digest then its your problem.

You reciprocate the impediments. Stop India's export to BD instead of whining. Trade if its not a win win for both parties should be stopped.