Exploring Pakistan’s Nuclear Thresholds – Analysis

[Jinx1]

I am sorry I dont know who is MMS? but the Indian bigness syndrome in a trash only Indians believe. I'll just quote an earlier article written by Mr. Sufyan which explains where India stands today. And Pakistan's nuclear deterrence is not cold start specific, which the Indian Army Chief has himself said does not exist, when the world trashed it and he backed down - so much for his astute nature!

Quote ......
Many believe that India is a regional power, yet they fail to realize the fact that its regional prowess can only be exercised against nations as small and vulnerable as Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh. It has not been able to convincingly project its power potential against present day Pakistan and China and it is unlikely to happen in the future as well. US Embassy, New Delhi (courtesy wikileaks) corroborates this fact indicating that, with present Indian military capabilities, Cold Start doctrine would encounter mixed results.

US, France, UK, China and Russia etc can project their power potential because either they do not have a powerful regional threat to counter or they have enough capability to deter a regional threat and also project their capability to take care of extra-regional threats.

India cannot laterally expand its influence beyond its western borders due the existence of geo-political impediments in addition to the geographical restrictions placed by the presence of Pakistan. Expansion of its influence towards the east is impeded due to the large geographical lay of China. Myanmar can provide India with limited ability to expand towards South East Asia. She attempted to undertake such a venture but due to its internal upheaval in adjoining areas failed to take timely advantage. Chinese influence in Myanmar has in the meantime increased manifold which may limit future Indian endeavours. Therefore the only direction it may be able to expand its influence is towards the vast expanse of sea in the south.

As per the perceived US game-plan for India, garnering of a seaward influence is likely to be supported by the US and West. This fact is corroborated by increased number of Indian naval exercises with navies of US and other western nations in recent years. The plan seeks India to act as a countervailing force against China, as a milkman to sustain US economy while competing with Chinese economic progress and to stabilize regional disputes with limited force projection capability.

India may become a strong economic power and be able to generate fair bit of economic influence in all those countries which are its trading partners and may also be able to exercise fair bit of negativity against Pakistan and China in this domain. However, it’s overall power projection and generation of influence in the key regions would still remain limited unless it drastically improves relations with both Pakistan and China. It also highlights the importance of strategic nature of Pak-China relationship.
http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...-pakistan-s-geopolitical-dilema-china-us.html

 

[S_O_C_O_M]

Point Made in the article is : If Pakistan feel "JUST THREATEND" they will use Nuclear Weapons and have rights and moral force and logic to do it. They will use it even if an Indian Helicopter goes to Lahore to kill say Dawood.

Well.....by this logic ...India should have used nuclear weapons after Parliament Attack, Kargil Incursion and Mumbai Attack.

What SHITTY article and SHITTY analysis.

India also reserve the right to use force like USA ...and I am sure it will use it despite Kiyanis warnings..I am pretty sure.

If you do not want to get humiliated again, please stop using terrorism as your state policy. PERIOD.

lol, troll, india does not have the balls to go into Pakistan. Its been proved over and over again. Even after the 26/11 joke, india did what??thump its chest cried, like a big baby, talked big but did NOTHING.

 

[Jinx1]

lol, troll, india does not have the balls to go into Pakistan. Its been proved over and over again. Even after the 26/11 joke, india did what??thump its chest cried, like a big baby, talked big but did NOTHING.

On the dot and in complete harmony with the nuclear thresholds explained by the writer.

 

[InExile]

On the dot and in complete harmony with the nuclear thresholds explained by the writer.

You can mock India if you like; but Pakistan is playing an extremely dangerous game. You assume that India will take any level of provocation with terrorist attacks; but sooner or later it will go too far, the internal political pressure to retaliate will be too high , and there will be a nuclear war.

It appears that millions of Indians and Pakistanis have to die before some people see sense; assuming they are alive to do so.

 

[Nassr]

You can mock India if you like; but Pakistan is playing an extremely dangerous game. You assume that India will take any level of provocation with terrorist attacks; but sooner or later it will go too far, the internal political pressure to retaliate will be too high , and there will be a nuclear war.

It appears that millions of Indians and Pakistanis have to die before some people see sense; assuming they are alive to do so.

Nobody's taking about any provocations by Pakistan. If you read the article the response is only against Indian provocations and not due to any Pakistani acts. Don't spread false things and misquotes. Get out of the tactical and small mindset and think strategic as this is what the article talks about.

 

[InExile]

Nobody's taking about any provocations by Pakistan. If you read the article the response is only against Indian provocations and not due to any Pakistani acts. Don't spread false things and misquotes. Get out of the tactical and small mindset and think strategic as this is what the article talks about.

All the terrorist attacks in India that have been alleged to have been planned in Pakistan or by the ISI are serious provocations. Pakistan assumes that because of their nuclear weapons India will never attack them no matter what. That is a very reckless What if there is a terrorist attack that kills tens of thousands; maybe a dirty bomb or something like that? The political pressure for a war will be impossible to resist for the Indian Government. Nuclear weapons or not.

 

[Jinx1]

All the terrorist attacks in India that have been alleged to have been planned in Pakistan or by the ISI are serious provocations. Pakistan assumes that because of their nuclear weapons India will never attack them no matter what. That is a very reckless What if there is a terrorist attack that kills tens of thousands; maybe a dirty bomb or something like that? The political pressure for a war will be impossible to resist for the Indian Government. Nuclear weapons or not.

Sir, the key word is alleged. If you want to go to war with Pakistan for alleged interference - it may be going too far. However, if India is bent upon going to war with Pakistan, I dare India to cross the nuclear thresholds and face the wrath.
In my opinion the American attack inside Pakistan is probably the harbinger to geo-political change in this part of the world. This probably is the biggest US misadventure which is likely to cost dearly to the American efforts in gaining Pakistani support for their future presence here. The jingoism on both sides notwithstanding, US recklessness will be costly for them. If the Indians would want to take advantage of this it would certainly be very costly for them as well. You dont mess with a nuclear power, no matter how weak it is. The Soviets could squeeze themselves back to Russia - here there is no squeeze - there will be only response.

 

[Tinu]

I agree with Jinx1. The American action will have ramifications for both the US as well as Pakistan. In any case even if Mr Manmohan Singh walks on his head to gain influence in Afghanistan, this will not happen despite concerted American efforts to replace Pakistan's influence with India. Pakistan's nuclear thresholds and response would be enough for the trans-atlantic alliance to tread very very carefully.

 

[Nassr]

The news that Americans will put boots on ground in Pakistan to protect its nuclear assets displays a lack of understanding of Pakistan's steely resolve in response to any such action against her nuclear assets. Like the Americans are serious about launching strikes anywhere to kill or capture Alqaeda leadership, Pakistan's response would be devastating and would lead to disastrous response and circumstances. The Americans dont understand this and need to very very seriously factor this when talking about launching such actions.
For the first time in the history of Pakistan, the country's leadership is responding and acting as a serious nuclear power. Pakistan has for the first time responding to the Americans as a serious power and at geo-political level. The Americans should listen seriously.

 

[Jinx1]

After printing of this article there has almost been a flood of articles written by Indians against Pakistan's nuclear weapons and its stance. It indeed is funny that instead of coming out with something new and worthwhile, the same old - same old propaganda is being churned out again and again. It seems as if that Indian intellectual response has been rusted and they don't have anything new to say.

 

[Tinu]

There is a very thin red line that the Americans may cross inadvertently or because of their hardline approach towards Pakistan and this part of the world. They have to tread very carefully here as their long time interests would be definitely harmed and threaten their long term presence and interests for a very long time. The Arab Spring may spring something damaging in Pakistan and Afghanistan if the people think they have had enough of US shenanigans. This may spiral out of control and may become a harbinger for China, Iran and the Russians to link and control this area against American interests. The US does not have to make Pakistani public their enemy as all others are acrimonious to American presence in any case. The US is a powerful country and influence in Middle East and Pakistan, however any public uprising against America here in Pakistan would definitely have far reaching negative impact on Arab Spring movement and may turn the US advantage on its head.