Thunder Bolt
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AZERI TODAY: What provoked the recent tension between India and Pakistan?
KT: The recent rise in tensions between India and Pakistan is a result of the unresolved issue of Kashmir. The insurgency by Kashmiri separatists has been going on for over six decades. In the most recent surge, the Indian troops have killed 90 freedom fighters and injured over 500. The casualties include many children as well. It is in response to these atrocities that some militants from within Occupied Kashmir targeted an Indian Brigade Headquarter in Uri. India found this incident to be a convenient excuse to blame Pakistan for facilitating it, particularly as Uri lies very close to the Line of Control in Kashmir. Indian policymakers thought that by blaming Pakistan, they could ward off world-wide criticism of its own terror campaign in Kashmir, and could single out Pakistan as a supporter of terror. After blaming Pakistan, India very irresponsibly conducted retaliatory artillery shelling across the border, and in an effort to satisfy its public, falsely claimed that these were ‘surgical strikes’ against terrorists sanctuaries. Quite naturally, Pakistan was compelled to pay back by shelling Indian positions across the Line of Control. It has to be understood that such brinksmanship between nuclear-armed neighbours is fraught with extreme danger, and can have very serious consequences for the region, as well as the world at large.
AZERI TODAY: Can India or Pakistan use nuclear weapons?
KT: Whereas possession of nuclear weapons aims at deterring aggression through conventional means, there is a distinct possibility that the conflict escalates to a level where nuclear weapons could come into play. This can happen if one of the countries feels that it is confronted with an existential threat. In case of Pakistan, it considers that, being a smaller country with lesser military resources, it may face a situation where: i) the capture of the country’s heartland (major cities or industrial areas) by the Indian forces is imminent, ii) the main lines of communication (rail and road links between north and south of the country) are liable to be severed, iii) the water supplies from major rivers originating in India are choked. In such cases, the very existence of the country could be at stake. The mortifying experience of the loss of East Pakistan in 1971, in which India played a major role, cannot be forgotten easily. It is for this reason that Pakistan’s declared nuclear policy clearly states that it could be compelled to use nuclear weapons first. One of the scenarios could involve use of low yield tactical nuclear weapons against Indian armoured formations which have broken through deep, and threaten to break-up the country. India, on the other hand, declares that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, but will respond ‘massively’ if Pakistan uses them first.
For the past 16 years it has been seen that the risk of an all-out conventional war has been curtailed due to possession of the nuclear deterrent by both countries. However, this situation could go out of control as incidents like the recent one in Uri, have the potential of escalation beyond critical limits.
AZERI TODAY: What is the position of Islamabad regarding the on-going war in the Middle East? Does Pakistan support Syrian Bashar al-Assad or the opposition?
KT: Pakistan’s position in the Syrian crisis has generally been neutral, though it is not altogether opposed to Assad’s rightful fight against outside players. This stance is apparently not to the liking of USA and the Gulf States, who would have liked to see Pakistan doing more, or at least providing diplomatic support to the Syrian opposition. Russia and Iran seem satisfied about Pakistan’s neutral stance, which is quite in line with the shifting power play in Eurasia where Russia and Iran are resurgent, and would like to see countries like Pakistan not opposing their active involvement in the Middle East.
It must also be noted that Pakistan is far removed from the Middle East scene, and is too committed in its own war on terror; this precludes any active involvement in Middle Eastern affairs, at least for the present.
AZERI TODAY: How do you assess the current state of military and technical cooperation between Azerbaijan and Pakistan?
KT: Although it has been over quarter of a century since the break-up of Soviet Union, Pakistan’s relations with Central Asian countries, especially those of the Turkic Council and TURKSOY, have generally remained static (with the exception of Turkey). As for Azerbaijan in particular, there has been considerable improvement in recent times. Pakistan sees Azerbaijan as a neighbour of its good friends Iran and Turkey, and considers her as a perfect ‘bridge’ for bringing the people of this region together. It was for such reasons that Pakistan was amongst the first countries to recognise Azerbaijan as an independent country in 1991.
While there has been limited cooperation in military training between the two countries, there is considerable scope for enlargement in this domain. Given the volatile situation in the Caucasus region, and Pakistan’s clear support for Azerbaijan’s position in the conflict with Armenia, defence ties can be further strengthened. The experience of Pakistan’s military in fighting the extremist insurgents for over a decade, can be a useful subject for collaboration between the militaries of Azerbaijan and Pakistan.
AZERI TODAY: What type of heavy weapons produced by Pakistan could be of interest to Azerbaijan’s military?
KT: Pakistan has a highly developed defence industry that manufactures aircraft, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, and naval craft. Because of availability cheap labour, these products are very reasonably priced compared to those produced in USA and Europe. The technical standards are world class, as the exports and successful service of these products in many countries testify.
The Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) produces advanced jet fighters, jet trainers and piston-engined trainers. The JF-17 ‘Thunder’ jet fighter is produced on a 50:50 partnership basis with China. Five fighter squadrons of JF-17s have achieved Full Operational Capability in the Pakistan Air Force and these aircraft are expected to replace the old fleet of PAF’s Mirage III/5 and F-7 (Chinese version of the MiG-21F) in the next few years. PAC also produces the K-8 advanced jet trainer in partnership with China. Another very successful product is the ‘Mushaak’ fully aerobatic primary trainer that has been exported to several countries and has been in use with the Pakistan Air Force and Pakistan Army for many years.
The Pakistan Ordnance Factories manufacture tanks, armoured personnel carriers and small arms including machine guns, sniper rifles and a wide range of ammunition.
