East Asian Union China+Taiwan+Japan+Korea, possible?

[kalu_miah]

"Japan would rather create tighter economic and military alliance with ASEAN rather than China,"

How? You know Japan and Korea are already much more integrated with China than with ASEAN nations. Nationalism and historical mistrust apart, I think North East Asian countries are more aligned.

The reason why Japan is not sincere to apologize for its war crimes is Japan only bows to more powerful nations and Japan is more economically developed than Korea and China right now. When Korea and China are equally developed, Japan will have to repent its past war crimes and everyone should move on. A lot of right wing Japanese see China as backward and no longer the same Chinese they used to admire so they don't want to associate with China. But I don't see this as anything special since even urban people look down upon their own poor countrymen. We are still savages in a way.

Because a continuously rising China will eventually threaten security of Japan and South Korea, even with USA having bases in these countries. At some point a few decades from now when Chinese hard military power increases to a certain level, USA as the off shore balancer will no longer be able to provide security for these two countries. A developed and integrated ASEAN on the other hand can bring a balance, if Japan and South Korea make an effort to make ASEAN developed and integrated. That is the basis of my argument for the ASEAN+ idea, the link for this thread I included in OP. You can look at that thread for further details.

So both Japan and South Korea, I am predicting would increase their investment in ASEAN economies and continue moving away from China, because of the above scenario and also because labor is getting expensive in China.

Past issues like war crimes, lack of apologies and attitude of more urbanized Japanese towards more rural Chinese, could be factors, but it is their national security in the future that would be the main factor for their current and future geopolitical strategy.

Iran, turkey?? That is too broad, impossible.

Perhaps, I am talking about very long term, not just a few decades.

 

[kalu_miah]

I will only say two things here

1.) you cannot have an UNION when you have a dominant partner. Otherwise the so called "Union" are only a sock puppet for the dominant force. You obviously know nothing about EU, Germany did not dominate EU, it's a 3 pillars system using in the EU, where the UK, France and Germany dominate EU and they sort of go against each other all the time. Hence a working Union can exist. NATO is not a Union and they are dominated by the American.

2.) You cannot pick random country from the world and form a Union....
China have no border with Turkey and most Former Soviet states, you cannot maintain union integrity when you share no common border. You can form a pact, but not a union.

1)I would say Germany still leads among the trio, as it is the biggest (around 25-30% bigger than the other two in GDP) and most successful economy in EU.

But I agree about the point you made about too big and powerful dominant nations being unfit for being in a union with other smaller less powerful nations. So large nations like China or India have no hope of getting into any sort of regional union with any neighbors, according to my own theory of course. Instead, small nations will team up to resist bullying from big nations. There will be no way to avoid this natural phenomenon in international regional geopolitics.

2) Not sure who suggested China, Turkey and former Soviet states to be in one Union, please read the post more carefully. I mentioned Turkey and former Soviet states could be a part of Eurasia+, far in the future, perhaps a century from now, not in coming decades, not China.

 

[kalu_miah]

I don't ever foresee a Chinese Economic zone with Japan and South Korea, let alone South Pacific Country like Australia and New Zealand.

To establish a economic zone, all party are to trade with the same currency, either you are asking to pick one currency from the above list and trade with (Which is impossible) or you ask China to use the international currency- US Dollar(Again it's impossible) or you ask all the country above switch to RMB (Well, unless China rollover all the country, I would say it's impossible)

Currently there are no direct linkage between RMB and other currency, you will need to establish that first, when the world started to depend more on RMB, then it's time to talk about bumping RMB into international currency. And then only after then, you can talk about establishing an economic zone.

Lol I always thought FTA is Free Trade Agreement......Anyway, strangely China have a FTA with ASEAN but not individual country like SK, Japan, Australia or New Zealand.....

Currency is not the main factor, in fact many economists warned Eurozone not to have a common currency before further fiscal and political integration and it seems like they were right, looking at current eurozone crisis, that is mainly a result of this premature set up of common currency zone.

What is more important is free flow of investments, goods, raw materials, guest workers, infrastructural links (roads, railway etc.) so the economies integrate further. But even before all this, there is the question of security, which nation do people trust as their long term ally, who they can build a union with.

It is in this question of security, I think Japan, Korea or ASEAN will not choose China, instead they will choose themselves with USA as an off-shore security balancer for the time being.

 

[jhungary]

yes, RMB is still not an international reserve currency. But UK and France are going to sign currency exchange agreement with China. You can google that. Many other developing countries have already established such exchange agreement.

You probably are thinking agreement to trade directly from RMB and their own currency, which many country have that agreement already,but not exchange rate.

Last I check France are in Eurozone and using Euro, French alone do not have the power to negotiate exchange rate deal when they are using Euro.....

All the while, it's a longgggggggway to call RMB is going to be anywhere near top 10 Global Reserve Currencies.......

HSBC estimate by the end of 2011, RMB will be on the list of top 3 currency of Global exchange reserve on account of their economic achievement, however til today the top 5 is still US, EU, GBP, JPY and Strangely Canadian Dollar......US + EU alone made up 86% of world reserve. It will be long way for RMB to have anywhere close to top 5, let alone replacing US as global reserve currency...

 

[StarCraft_ZT]

You probably are thinking agreement to trade directly from RMB and their own currency, which many country have that agreement already,but not exchange rate.

Last I check France are in Eurozone and using Euro, French alone do not have the power to negotiate exchange rate deal when they are using Euro.....

All the while, it's a longgggggggway to call RMB is going to be anywhere near top 10 Global Reserve Currencies.......

HSBC estimate by the end of 2011, RMB will be on the list of top 3 currency of Global exchange reserve on account of their economic achievement, however til today the top 5 is still US, EU, GBP, JPY and Strangely Canadian Dollar......US + EU alone made up 86% of world reserve. It will be long way for RMB to have anywhere close to top 5, let alone replacing US as global reserve currency...

Oh, my mistake, it is a currency swap agreement. Well...better than nothing. At least yuan is accepted to some extent.

China central bank's capital account is still not open to foreign market. Maybe govt try to protect domestic market from risks of international currency fluctuations. Still a long way to be an international currency.

 

[jhungary]

1)I would say Germany still leads among the trio, as it is the biggest (around 25-30% bigger than the other two in GDP) and most successful economy in EU.

But I agree about the point you made about too big and powerful dominant nations being unfit for being in a union with other smaller less powerful nations. So large nations like China or India have no hope of getting into any sort of regional union with any neighbors, according to my own theory of course. Instead, small nations will team up to resist bullying from big nations. There will be no way to avoid this natural phenomenon in international regional geopolitics.

2) Not sure who suggested China, Turkey and former Soviet states to be in one Union, please read the post more carefully. I mentioned Turkey and former Soviet states could be a part of Eurasia+, far in the future, perhaps a century from now, not in coming decades, not China.

1.) Germany have many, MANY hidden factor that set them back as a leader of EU, one major factor does not comes with financial side, but rather political side.....That was the aftermath of WW2. It will be the end of EU when they do headed by the German, the other European nation will simply not allow it to happen, the day when Germany lead EU is the day EU kick Germany out.......

2.) My bad, it was 8 am in the morning when I original answer your post, my eyes wasn't wide open back then...

Currency is not the main factor, in fact many economists warned Eurozone not to have a common currency before further fiscal and political integration and it seems like they were right, looking at current eurozone crisis, that is mainly a result of this premature set up of common currency zone.

What is more important is free flow of investments, goods, raw materials, guest workers, infrastructural links (roads, railway etc.) so the economies integrate further. But even before all this, there is the question of security, which nation do people trust as their long term ally, who they can build a union with.

It is in this question of security, I think Japan, Korea or ASEAN will not choose China, instead they will choose themselves with USA as an off-shore security balancer for the time being.

actually currency do matter.......

One can only enjoy genuine "Free Trade" is when both side (The buyer and seller) uses the same currency. Exchange rate in itself comes with tariff, taxes and also most important of all, the exchange rate. Bear in mind in the current financial system all trade are not done instantly, that was called a "Batch" processing. In short, all those tariff, taxes and exchange rate will eat up either the buyer or the seller. And this factor will make trade uneven depend on the performance of currencies.

You either unilaterally trade with other party's currency or have the other party trade with yours, or both uses a third party currency, otherwise free trade zone most likely cannot be established as the currency itself will become an obstacle for the trade agreement....

 

[jhungary]

Oh, my mistake, it is a currency swap agreement. Well...better than nothing. At least yuan is accepted to some extent.

China central bank's capital account is still not open to foreign market. Maybe govt try to protect domestic market from risks of international currency fluctuations. Still a long way to be an international currency.

heh, it's okay.

It will greatly depreciate the value of RMB if Central bank do so, of course they are going to close up to protect their own market first. Unless Chinese market on its own become competitive, there are no point opening up to foreign market....

 

[Wholegrain]

That is the core issue. Will Japan (regardless of the right or left wing shift) as a nation accept China as their leader? Will Russia accept Germany as the leader, if it wants to join the EU?

I doubt it. Lets see what others think. That is why I believe my ASEAN+ and Eurasia+ (former Soviet+Turkey+Iran+AF-Pak) "fantasy/lunatic" ideas are more feasible.

Western style ethnic nationalism was introduced to Japan and Korea in the 19th century and left a permanent mark on their brains. Japan now looks down on all non Japanese and thinks it's superior to everyone else.

I think only the union of China and Okiwana is possible. No union with Japan or Korea.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-...pendence-japan-turns-serious.html#post4518825

Sure minus china and taiwan

If the Moros wish, they can join the China+Okinawa Union, just minus the Filipinos in Luzon and Visayas.

And @kalu_miah besides the obvious trolling going on here by Zero_wing, (I'm messing around) historically Okinawa (Ryukyu Kingdom) and the Moro Sultanate of Sulu really were the closest allies of China during the Ming dynasty. Read what I posted on the Okinawa thread. Despite not being linguistically related they welcomed Chinese to settle down in their Kingdoms and mix with them and had positive relationships. Ryukyu adopted Chinese culture and Confucianism and turned away from its native shamanism and superstitions.

 

[Reashot Xigwin]

How can you have a Union when these 4 hate each other guts.

 

[Viet]

Chinese hate Japanese and vice versa. Koreans hate Japanese, while Japanese look down on Koreans. And Taiwanese? interesting, they like Japanese more than their brothers and sisters in Mainland. I don´t see how they can overcome.

Last but not least, China is too big and will dominate an proposed union.

 

[Snowden]

I don't ever foresee a Chinese Economic zone with Japan and South Korea, let alone South Pacific Country like Australia and New Zealand.

To establish a economic zone, all party are to trade with the same currency, either you are asking to pick one currency from the above list and trade with (Which is impossible) or you ask China to use the international currency- US Dollar(Again it's impossible) or you ask all the country above switch to RMB (Well, unless China rollover all the country, I would say it's impossible)

Currently there are no direct linkage between RMB and other currency, you will need to establish that first, when the world started to depend more on RMB, then it's time to talk about bumping RMB into international currency. And then only after then, you can talk about establishing an economic zone.

Lol I always thought FTA is Free Trade Agreement......Anyway, strangely China have a FTA with ASEAN but not individual country like SK, Japan, Australia or New Zealand.....

Wrong, there are 3 currencies directly trading with the RMB. The US dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian dollar. More currencies will be directly traded with the RMB as stated by the PBOC. New Zealand Dollar is next.

China has an FTA with New Zealand since 2008. Negotiating FTA's with South Korea and Australia. Negotiating a trilateral FTA with Japan and South Korea.

 

[Snowden]

You probably are thinking agreement to trade directly from RMB and their own currency, which many country have that agreement already,but not exchange rate.

Last I check France are in Eurozone and using Euro, French alone do not have the power to negotiate exchange rate deal when they are using Euro.....

All the while, it's a longgggggggway to call RMB is going to be anywhere near top 10 Global Reserve Currencies.......

HSBC estimate by the end of 2011, RMB will be on the list of top 3 currency of Global exchange reserve on account of their economic achievement, however til today the top 5 is still US, EU, GBP, JPY and Strangely Canadian Dollar......US + EU alone made up 86% of world reserve. It will be long way for RMB to have anywhere close to top 5, let alone replacing US as global reserve currency...

Direct currency trading IS exchange rate of two currencies without using a third currency such as the dollar. You seem to be an economic noob pretending to know everything. China also has currency swap arrangements with around 20 countries.

The RMB has risen to 11th most used payments currency according to SWIFT. Another way of finding out how much a currency is used is using foreign exchange transactions but that data is released once every 3 years by the Bank of Internatinal Settlements. The last report was released in 2010 before the RMB internationalization really took off. Next report is the 2013 one and will be released next year.

The RMB is also being used as foreign exchange reserves by a few countries already. The Renminbi is fully convertible under the currenct account but only 'fully' convertible in 10 of the 40 capital account items.

The expansion of the offshore RMB centers will mean more RMB will flow out of China and be used by other parties.

Within 10 years the RMB will be the 3rd most used currency behind the US Dollar and Euro. Maybe even the second depending on how fast the CPC wants the RMB to internationalize.

 

[Zero_wing]

Western style ethnic nationalism was introduced to Japan and Korea in the 19th century and left a permanent mark on their brains. Japan now looks down on all non Japanese and thinks it's superior to everyone else.

I think only the union of China and Okiwana is possible. No union with Japan or Korea.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/china-...pendence-japan-turns-serious.html#post4518825



If the Moros wish, they can join the China+Okinawa Union, just minus the Filipinos in Luzon and Visayas.

And @kalu_miah besides the obvious trolling going on here by Zero_wing, (I'm messing around) historically Okinawa (Ryukyu Kingdom) and the Moro Sultanate of Sulu really were the closest allies of China during the Ming dynasty. Read what I posted on the Okinawa thread. Despite not being linguistically related they welcomed Chinese to settle down in their Kingdoms and mix with them and had positive relationships. Ryukyu adopted Chinese culture and Confucianism and turned away from its native shamanism and superstitions.

Well your full of b.s its not trolling if trying to stop disinformation by no brainier your so called facts are half trues and all bull one people in mindanao is sick tried of war only those who like it benefit from it love it tell me how can a no body tell us living here otherwise? second you just angered Japan India, US and the Philippines and South Korea how can it be possible to have this Union yours? Your kind is now becoming a problem due to the fact it wants to be Imperial Power which many have already rejected because those days are over and done for and you so called victims wanna bring it back? what kind of logic is that?

Chinese people in this country is that you sprinkle a urinary countries will be able to put you off.

I think that was your country and the whole world nice fantasy i guess it helps you people sleep at night

 

[jhungary]

Wrong, there are 3 currencies directly trading with the RMB. The US dollar, Japanese Yen and Australian dollar. More currencies will be directly traded with the RMB as stated by the PBOC. New Zealand Dollar is next.

China has an FTA with New Zealand since 2008. Negotiating FTA's with South Korea and Australia. Negotiating a trilateral FTA with Japan and South Korea.

I never said there are no Direct exchange rate established with RMB. I am saying the "Free Trade Zone" Idea is impossible as Chinese RMB is not yet an "International" Currency and can be establish a "Zone" for it.

You are right, US Dollars, Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar all signed the direct conversion deal with China, can you form a Free trade zone with 4 country? Which one of them are the US? What "Currency" do you think if China, US, Australia and Japan will use if they form a FTZ? RMB??

Bear in mind the original question is a FREE TRADE ZONE, not a Free Trade area or agreement.

Direct currency trading IS exchange rate of two currencies without using a third currency such as the dollar. You seem to be an economic noob pretending to know everything. China also has currency swap arrangements with around 20 countries.

The RMB has risen to 11th most used payments currency according to SWIFT. Another way of finding out how much a currency is used is using foreign exchange transactions but that data is released once every 3 years by the Bank of Internatinal Settlements. The last report was released in 2010 before the RMB internationalization really took off. Next report is the 2013 one and will be released next year.

The RMB is also being used as foreign exchange reserves by a few countries already. The Renminbi is fully convertible under the currenct account but only 'fully' convertible in 10 of the 40 capital account items.

The expansion of the offshore RMB centers will mean more RMB will flow out of China and be used by other parties.

Within 10 years the RMB will be the 3rd most used currency behind the US Dollar and Euro. Maybe even the second depending on how fast the CPC wants the RMB to internationalize.

lol who's noob??

A direct currency trade is using A "Pre-existing" forex to trade, for France, they pre-exchanged Euro into US/Australia dollar or Yen and then into RMB before handing those RMB (from their forex) to China, this eliminated the need to convert the currency on payment, thus eliminated a risk of exchange rate fluctuation and either China ended up paying more or France ended up paying more.

Trading with China without a Direct currency trade agreement will require the buyer to use either USD/AUD/JPY to trade with China and China will accept those currency and turn it into RMB on receiving the money. Or China convert RMB into USD/AUD/JPY to buy from those country and give them USD/AUD/JPY on requiring goods, as per international financial regulation, all TT/Tele Cheque/Bank Draft require 3-10 business day to clear, you don't go do a TT and expect the money is received immediately on the other end.

Trading with China with Direct Currency trade agreement will require the buyer to pre-exchange(Unless it's US/Japan/Australia) their own currency into RMB and pay the Chinese into RMB. Or Chinese pay RMB to those country for goods and they exchange it back with Foreign currency reserve and exchange it back to whtever currency there are.

Those 20 odd country you mention is only willing to trade with RMB, they do not establish a linkage from their own currency to RMB, and that will be Direct Currency CONVERSION/EXCHANGE not direct currency trade.


Again with the within XXX[insert number here] year China will be something something, come to me when RMB actually become top 3 most used global trade currency. HSBC pegged in 2011 that China will be top 3 in 2011, and you think you are better than those idiot who's working for HSBC??

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/05/2011528134321176264.html

Recently, HSBC bank released an upbeat survey predicting that China's currency, the renminbi (RMB), will become one of three global settlement currencies (alongside the dollar and euro) sometime this year.

Article wrote in 2011

now let's see what those overpaid idiot of HSBC have to say

The RMB, or Chinese yuan, would be able to become one of the top three global traded currencies in volumn term by the end of 2015, said Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC Holdings plc, in London Friday.

well, a push of 4 years, pretend they said nothing in 2011 good move

http://www.china.org.cn/business/2013-05/25/content_28929765.htm

You are calling me a noob when yourselves do not know the different between currency trade and direct trade. Now, who's noob?? Do you even know what is require to establish a Direct Currency Conversion for any country to any country, and why only 3 are doing them with China now??

Read this please

http://articles.economictimes.india...1037783_1_global-reserve-currency-yuan-dollar

 

[Zero_wing]

Other thing you gonna have mutual trust which china lack with other countries due to the fact china claims everything