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Discussion: Donald Trump as POTUS and its implications for Pak-US relations

It isn't about what Pakistan can deliver since 9/11. It's about what Pakistan can deliver since 5/2 - the day America hunted down and killed Osama bin Laden in his safe house on Pakistani soil. Does Pakistan have the guts to eviscerate all its internal demons or not?
Launching Zarb-e-Azb and going after the terrorists Pakistan showed it has guts to do what was necessary. Today we are doing pretty alright, terrorism has dropped significantly and economy is improving. The whole episode about Osama is now a moot point because US itself gave a clean chit to Pakistan.
 
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Launching Zarb-e-Azb and going after the terrorists Pakistan showed it has guts -
As far as I'm aware Pakistan still supports the Haqqanis and armed violence in Kashmir. There is no effective check on abuses committed by the police or intelligence services. Then there are all the pet criminals Pakistani politicians keep the law away from for their own purposes.
 
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Finally, Donald Trump has won the election and been elected the president of the USA (PotUS) by people of USA. The purpose of this thread is to discuss its implications for Pak-USA relations (NOT whether it is a wrong decision or a good decision by US people).
It will be interesting to see how our predictions / opinions it turns out in reality over the course of time given the apparent notion about Donald Trump being an unpredictable and an anti-establishment character. We should also keep in my mind that USA is a big establishment (CIA, Pentagon, NSA, Think Tanks, Banker, Billionaires, Oil Cartel, defence industry) and that determines the long term policies and at least one hand of PotUS is believed to be tied to his neck.

I pose the following question to the audience to start the discussion. Please feel free to add relevant questions
Will the apparent thawing of relations between the two countries will accelerate, decelerate or we will be up for some surprises (in positive sense). How would this affect USA-India, US-China, US-Russia and US-other relations and their fallout on Pakistan.
Will USA continue to feed Afghanistan? as Donald Trump does not believe in free lunches and also wants good relations with Russia

To avoid trolling I have created this thread in seniors cafe, but not to exclude the juniors

@MastanKhan @Oscar @Kaptaan @Khafee @Indus Falcon @GreenFalcon @waz @Horus @Moonlight @risingsinga @Spring Onion @Akheilos @Arsalan @django @KAL-EL


Thank you for tagging me.

First of ALL I personally believe that US institutions are stronger than a one man :)

When it comes to Pak-US relations then the fact is that the driving factor had always been the US interests and long term plans (irrespective of the fact if these plans, foreign policy bear the expected results). So as long as US has interests in the region where we are located well the policy of do more and occasional praise showering will continue.

On a practical level as far as US military assistance is concerned well that is already at minimal level so to this end we are or would be standing at the same point.


NOW the bigger question if Trump will bring a 180 degree changed foreign policy viz a viz Pakistan? Well I personally see it could be linked to US Foreign Policy viz a viz Syria, Russia.

If Trump engages Russia for bringing down tension in Syria well then I feel he might like to look into US policy with regards to Afghanistan war/engagement. If that happened then Indeed US might leave Pakistan in the lurch once again.

If that happened then I see another chaos in our region and consequently another interference from US :)

Trump had made tall claims regarding domestic policies hence I see he might be under pressure specially about the issue of migrants and creating jobs etc etc.

I am also waiting to see his policy towards China since he was seen having anti-China sentiments. Let us wait and see all these factors might determined US policy towards Pakistan.
 
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Again what more do you think Pakistan can or cannot deliver since 9/11? Isnt it obvious that from US perspective Pakistan delivered almost nothing and has been a dubious partner? Why would Trump believe otherwise?
and where did i say that trump will believe otherwise? All i am saying is that India is not a factor in what they believe...see the difference??

Besides China there is also the Indian market that US is looking to tap in. So its the economic factor plus the strategic factor which alone are big enough to keep US and India allies in the foreseeable future.
Indian markets are desperate for FDI...to be honest they don't need any special invitations there...also as said India and US interests align pretty much viz a viz China(thanks to her being more and more assertive)....this is not true viz-a-viz Pakistan....Pakistan US undoing is all due to Pakistan role in AF.....India in fact has shown her frustration on so many occasions...Just recently they banned taking the bill of more F-16's however still will go ahead and sell it to you guys if you opt to pay for them....no??

Despite all that investment US and China are not allies rather adversaries. Besides i can make a similar argument that considering huge Chinese investment in US, will US really want to risk it? But than we all know superpowers dont work that way. They also have strategic interests to look after. Yes?
Yes, however economic angle is very important...that is why superpowers don't directly go after each other...right??

Let us forget the investment factor for the moment and focus on strategic factor and its implications if China loses Pakistan as an ally. It will mean that India will be left unchallenged and one who could focus solely on China. Isnt this a popular believe amongst Indians as well that Pakistan is used by China to contain India? I am just using a counter narrative..
True...agree with above....but where did i raise the question of China loosing Pakistan?? Let me ask you this...was this counter narrative was true in 1999?? Was this counter narrative true in 2001?? I believe it was...then why did China not intervene?? because there was no threat to Pakistan as such and no threat to Chinese interests....

US and China will not go to war directly, perhaps because super powers dont fight like that but that still does not mean that one will be left unchallenged while the other suffers. If Pakistan is taken out of the equation that will put China on a severe disadvantage viz-a-viz India and USA. Now take your pick which side China is going to take.
First of all there is no questions of taking out Pakistan..as it is not even in US interests...Secondly China is still not there that she can challenge US directly....the arrival of Chinese in that domain has still some years/decade left....otherwise i agree with your narrative but seems like you misinterpret on what i am trying to say....key is "as long as Chinese interests are not threatened"....
 
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As far as I'm aware Pakistan still supports the Haqqanis and armed violence in Kashmir. There is no effective check on abuses committed by the police or intelligence services. Then there are all the pet criminals Pakistani politicians keep the law away from for their own purposes.
You being aware is of no significance, what matters is what one can prove. Pakistan supports Kashmiri freedom struggle and their right to self determination as promised under the UN resolutions. As for Haqqanis, Pakistan made it clear that their will be no selective approach and no such distinction is being made. Yes US accuses Pakistan of not targeting the Haqqanis but even that has reduced. But at the end of the day Pakistan's own interests are paramount and with US turning a blind eye towards Indian activities in Afghanistan, we cannot remain in oblivion. Pakistan shares a large porous border with Afghanistan and anything that happens there affects us significantly. US should had taken our concerns a tad more seriously.
As for the highlighted part what has that to do with the topic at hand? Arent blacks killed by the police in the US regularly?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...t-kill-unarmed-black-man-160920042318546.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...l-mentally-ill-black-man-160928065635824.html
Any check on these abuses?
 
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....Pakistan supports Kashmiri freedom struggle...Yes US accuses Pakistan of not targeting the Haqqanis but even that has reduced. But at the end of the day Pakistan's own interests are paramount -
Exactly. So the answer is, "No, Pakistan's leaders will use whatever tools it wants, even if these are rejected by others on moral grounds, and even if they hurt our own populace."

Arent blacks killed by the police in the US regularly? Any check on these abuses?
Sure, political leaders and the courts are quite effective checks in the U.S. on police abuse of power. Of course, that doesn't silence some media from saying otherwise. The test is do such stories hold water or are they full of holes.
 
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and where did i say that trump will believe otherwise? All i am saying is that India is not a factor in what they believe...see the difference??

I think US has on more than one occasion made it clear how they see India and Pakistan and where their future interest lies. Even if India is desperate for FDI, the defense market of India is large enough to stroke interests and shape future policies of countries when it comes to this region.


India in fact has shown her frustration on so many occasions...Just recently they banned taking the bill of more F-16's however still will go ahead and sell it to you guys if you opt to pay for them....no??

They banned the bill none the less knowing well enough that Pakistan would not go ahead and buy them on full cost. That is what diplomacy is all about. Its never a zero sum game.


True...agree with above....but where did i raise the question of China loosing Pakistan?? Let me ask you this...was this counter narrative was true in 1999?? Was this counter narrative true in 2001?? I believe it was...then why did China not intervene?? because there was no threat to Pakistan as such and no threat to Chinese interests....

I am talking about combine military threat of India and US in the future. In 1999 there was no US threat. As for 2001 you have to be clear whether the reference is to Indian parliament attack or 9/11? But you do have to realise China than and China today are a completely different ball game. In 1996 US sent a carrier to threaten China over Taiwan, today US chooses to remain mostly on issuing verbal threats.


First of all there is no questions of taking out Pakistan..as it is not even in US interests...Secondly China is still not there that she can challenge US directly....the arrival of Chinese in that domain has still some years/decade left....otherwise i agree with your narrative but seems like you misinterpret on what i am trying to say....key is "as long as Chinese interests are not threatened"....
China as you said has recently been more assertive in its approach whereas US is more passive. This assertiveness is not empty but based on the fact that China sees herself as a growing power that can challenge US and it has been challenging US on a lot of things the islands mostly. China is more assertive in her approach and support towards Pakistan, the recent example of that was blocking Indian move on Masood Azhar, at NSG despite strong US backing. China lately has been very vocal about standing with Pakistan in case of any eventuality. This was never before but now it is and this is what i am pointing at.
 
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I think US has on more than one occasion made it clear how they see India and Pakistan and where their future interest lies. Even if India is desperate for FDI, the defense market of India is large enough to stroke interests and shape future policies of countries when it comes to this region..
You are also saying what i am ...however that is not equivalent to letting Pakistan go for good...because it will only strengthen China...so they have to keep some balance...

They banned the bill none the less knowing well enough that Pakistan would not go ahead and buy them on full cost. That is what diplomacy is all about. Its never a zero sum game..
But that was not music to India...what would be music to India is that we wont sell you...as those F-16 are only to be used against us....

I am talking about combine military threat of India and US in the future. In 1999 there was no US threat. As for 2001 you have to be clear whether the reference is to Indian parliament attack or 9/11? But you do have to realise China than and China today are a completely different ball game. In 1996 US sent a carrier to threaten China over Taiwan, today US chooses to remain mostly on issuing verbal threats.
and why would China be any more than that?? and even in today's world US can still give those verbal threats...China unfortunately still have some distance to cross...


China as you said has recently been more assertive in its approach whereas US is more passive. This assertiveness is not empty but based on the fact that China sees herself as a growing power that can challenge US and it has been challenging US on a lot of things the islands mostly. China is more assertive in her approach and support towards Pakistan, the recent example of that was blocking Indian move on Masood Azhar, at NSG despite strong US backing. China lately has been very vocal about standing with Pakistan in case of any eventuality. This was never before but now it is and this is what i am pointing at.
China has always said that it will stand for Pakistan...however in 99 they showed cold shoulder to you...why? Was China not a success story then?? If they can fully back North Korea all this along(when they were literally a third world country)why they stopped at Pakistan?? Similarly if in 50's they can fight with US for Korea why they could not give you much support in 2001??
 
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Slightly besides the topic but still a lesson for Pakistani politicians to learn

 
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Trump called John McCain a loser for getting captured, apparently McCain got 1.5 million more votes, Trump called Romney a loser, Romney got 2 million more votes than him, and they both lost badly, I do not think this man is very popular, he was just in the right place at the right time, maybe he will get impeached if he goes after one of his critics, the man is temperamentally unfit to be a police officer let alone POTUS.Kudos
Mention a single Republican candidate that stood up to Trump during the election campaign. Numbers are largely irrelevant now. People are expecting tangible results.

Trump is a business man. He creates jobs for the people. This is his primary focus. The appeal is natural.

As for leadership, Trump is the owner of more than 500 business entities worldwide. Let that figure sink-in for a while.

Do not judge people by their views; judge them by their actions.

You being aware is of no significance, what matters is what one can prove. Pakistan supports Kashmiri freedom struggle and their right to self determination as promised under the UN resolutions. As for Haqqanis, Pakistan made it clear that their will be no selective approach and no such distinction is being made. Yes US accuses Pakistan of not targeting the Haqqanis but even that has reduced. But at the end of the day Pakistan's own interests are paramount and with US turning a blind eye towards Indian activities in Afghanistan, we cannot remain in oblivion. Pakistan shares a large porous border with Afghanistan and anything that happens there affects us significantly. US should had taken our concerns a tad more seriously.
As for the highlighted part what has that to do with the topic at hand? Arent blacks killed by the police in the US regularly?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...t-kill-unarmed-black-man-160920042318546.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/...l-mentally-ill-black-man-160928065635824.html
Any check on these abuses?
Bro,

Best way forward is to craft an entirely new chapter of foreign policy for the US, with clear terms-of-engagement on various issues including terrorism, economy, CPEC and military. It is still not too late for us.
 
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Mention a single Republican candidate that stood up to Trump during the election campaign. Numbers are largely irrelevant now. People are expecting tangible results.

Trump is a business man. He creates jobs for the people. This is his primary focus. The appeal is natural.

As for leadership, Trump is the owner of more than 500 business entities worldwide. Let that figure sink-in for a while.

Do not judge people by their views; judge them by their actions.


Bro,

Best way forward is to craft an entirely new chapter of foreign policy for the US, with clear terms-of-engagement on various issues including terrorism, economy, CPEC and military. It is still not too late for us.
How do you know he has 500 business entities, have you seen his tax returns lol how do you know that those building which carry the Trump name actually belong to him, he hires his name out as a franchise because of the fame and notoriety he gained from the "Art of the deal" a book which he claimed to have wrote except he did not write a single word of it.Kudos
BTW his business record is vastly over-rated, he is not nearly as rich or successful in business as he claims, his tax returns would corroborate his actual wealth , that is why he never released them nor will he.Kudos
 
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How do you know he has 500 business entities, have you seen his tax returns lol how do you know that those building which carry the Trump name actually belong to him, he hires his name out as a franchise because of the fame and notoriety he gained from the "Art of the deal" a book which he claimed to have wrote except he did not write a single word of it.Kudos
BTW his business record is vastly over-rated, he is not nearly as rich or successful in business as he claims, his tax returns would corroborate his actual wealth , that is why he never released them nor will he.Kudos
Bro,

It is not difficult to look for information on the web:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization

http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/16/news/companies/donald-trump-ethics/

His business entities encompass small businesses and large corporations; over 500 in total. I know from personal experience, how much time even a small business demands to make it successful. Guys like Trump have natural talent in business.

As for taxes, he certainly pays them but he was not under obligation to make them public: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/02/us/politics/donald-trump-taxes.html
 
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