Bismarck
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Ok let me make some comments about this conflict:Hafter fled to the Russians and then to Egypt. However, none of them could save him. Whichever hole it came out, it will return there. There is no question of dividing Libya by 2. Because the Russians are afraid to show the flag directly. Their powers are not enough to flag the US and the British.
for sure. sometimes he says wild things. lol.You are a bit suspicious.
Most of the "red" and "blue" are empty deserts anyway.
Assuming that Intelligence had prior knowledge of Egyptian military preparations for Libya, this development explains the rush and massive amount of C-130 flights b/w Turkey and Libya over the last two weeks.
They will refrain from targeting Turkish forces, so they will focus on GNA. This means Turkish drones will be back in action, I mean UCAVs that are operated by Turkish military using TAF transponders which we witnessed during the early stages of our involvement to the conflict.
Funny thing with the tanks is that no matter how modern, top armor is a weak spot making them a target of opportunity for drones. So I doubt we will see Egyptian armor in action without CAP support, if so they must be really stupid which they are not. In this case, Egypt and Russia might have reached a secret deal which would explain "unmarked/unidentified" Mig-29s in the country. So either them or Egyptian Air Force will provide CAP to shoot down drones. Egyptian AF sure as hell won't dare to attack Turkish drones, they will carefully target GNA operated drone fleet.
The question is did the Russians deploy Mig-29s there to protect their presence there or they are deployed to shoot down Turkish drones to support, and in coordination with, a possible Egyptian ground maneuvers? With the US backing Egyptian peace initiative now, the latter option has a low likelihood but it never stopped Egypt to engage in close relations with Russia. And we all know from Idlib that Russians have no problem in targeting our forces via air which our government repeatedly disputes that they don't.
So the only way that can prevent this from ending up with a direct military confrontation with Egypt, UAE or Russia is to have a strictly enforced area denial policy (A2/AD) that demonstrates deterrence to use weapons if we have to.
Long story short, Turkish Naval Forces will have a far bigger role in Libya now and Air Force must now race wity the clock to finalize and declare initial operational capability for basing in Libya.
I saw this one a while ago, not sure if its 100% correct. But I think people tend to overlook the demographics of Libya one and often when comparing LNA and GNA.
View attachment 639473
Doubt it. I doubt there's enough farming in the red patch to support 2 million people. The food production must be in the south. Keep in mind it is the countryside that supports a city's food supply. Without the countryside, the city withers and dies. In Chinese revolution the rebels took the countryside and starved the cities to death.
You do realize that it is a flat, desert country with almost no fresh water sources right? It has to be dependent on exports in its agricultural supply which can be navigated to GNA via various routes.
Libyan economy (CIA Factbook, 2017)
Agriculture: 1.3%
Industry: 52.3%
Services: 46.4%
Neighboring Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt all have a sector share of agriculture above 10% And I think it is simple geography for a desert coastline to have its most feasible land near a water source.
that wont happen, because Israel and Egypt currently have a "peace deal". Israel doesnt touch ARab countries that have active peace deals with Israel..at least not b4 notifying US before doing such.As for the Egyptian defense equipment, they're such that Israil can destroy them within a couple of hours...
^^^this. if turkey is willing to commit its forces properly, then naval and air support will be vital for a quick victory.Long story short, Turkish Naval Forces will have a far bigger role in Libya now and Air Force must now race wity the clock to finalize and declare initial operational capability for basing in Libya.
I’d say the coastline is more important once Sirte and oilfields are in GNA hands.^^^this. if turkey is willing to commit its forces properly, then naval and air support will be vital for a quick victory.
also, gna should push south as well, to capture the oil reserves down south, will open up revenue stream for the GNA.
Just hope that this isnt some half assed attempt, like in syria. or else all the hard earned gains will be lost.
sirte is on the coastline. oil reserves are down south.I’d say the coastline is more important once Sirte and oilfields are in GNA hands.