Development Ideas for South Asia

[Sky lord]

Step one- Send Bhakt and right wingers of all religions into concentration camps.....development will automatically follow....

Isn't that an extreme right ( or left) wing thing to say? ...and didn't Hitler try it already ?

Live and let live man...what goes your father?

 

[Guynextdoor2]

Does that include modi? Who do you define a right winger?

Everyone. Ban Religion to get rid of this menace once and for all.

Isn't that an extreme right ( or left) wing thing to say? ...and didn't Hitler try it already ?

Live and let live man...what goes your father?

Hitler himself was a right winger (though he called himself 'socialist')

 

[Sky lord]

Ban Religion to get rid of this menace once and for all.

They already tried that in the old communist countries inc. USSR of yore...banning only makes things go underground and re emerge in a more virulent form.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

After going through your thread on emerging markets.. Would like to see valuable inputs on this @LeveragedBuyout

This World Bank report is a bit dated (from 2013), but I think the issues it covers are still relevant for encouraging growth in South Asia. The report covers each country, but here is the abstract for the region (@Shotgunner51 @Azizam may be of interest to you as well):

To regain the strong growth it had before the global crisis, South Asia will have to manage a combination of persistent external economic headwinds and increasing regional macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. Macroeconomic policies to tackle the adverse effects of the global downturn have left the South Asian countries with weaker fiscal and monetary options to stimulate growth today. With the exception of Afghanistan, economic growth across other South Asian countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka-has been moderating or stagnating. In Bangladesh, with export and investment growth slowing, Gross Domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to fall to around 6 percent in FY2013/14, down from 6.3 percent in FY2012/13. Over the same period, Bhutan saw its growth rate decline from almost 9 percent to 7.6 percent. India's economy slowed significantly. As a result, growth of a subdued 3 percent is expected in FY2012/13, down from 4.6 percent in FY2011/12. A significant drop in the region's exports and fixed investment are primarily responsible for South Asia's growth moderation. Private consumption remained stable, helped by resilient remittance flows, and is expected to only pick up slowly due to effects of persistent inflation, fiscal consolidation and slow recovery in disposable income. The overall real effective exchange rate depreciation across South Asia reflects weak economic fundamentals. International reserves fell below critical levels of two months of import coverage in Pakistan and one month in Maldives, reflecting the two countries' difficult external situations. During the first eight months of FY2012/13, Pakistan's net international reserves fell to 1.8 months, down from 2.6 months in the previous fiscal year.

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The World Bank also helpfully provides a press release with a bit more detail, if you don't want to read the full report. An excerpt:

Much of the recent slowdown in economic growth can be attributed to stagnating investment. Total fixed investment grew by 2.6% in 2012, down from a high of 16.7% in 2010. The performance varies widely across the region. For example, total investment in Pakistan during the 2011/12 fiscal year hit a historic low of 12.5% of GDP, while India is projected to register investment at 30.6% for fiscal year 2012/13, only slightly down from the previous year.

In common with global trends, most countries in South Asia have increased their levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) over the last decade. But much of this is skewed toward the services sectors, such as construction, financial and business services, with less going toward agriculture or manufacturing. This, to a large degree reflects a lack of attractive investment opportunities. Some countries, notably Bangladesh and Pakistan, have recently suffered significant declines in overall FDI.

“Exports and domestic consumption are expected to contribute only modestly to growth, and so a revival in investment will be critical for South Asia to regain momentum,” said Rama.“Over the next 20 years, more than 1 million new workers will be entering the South Asian labor force each month. Countries will need to improve their business climate to attract the private sector investment needed for these new entrants to find productive jobs, thereby reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity.”

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Whatever South Asia does, it will need to create a more favorable business climate to attract FDI. In short, that means deregulation (or at least a stable regulatory environment), a favorable tax environment, political stability, and strong institutions (control of corruption). Contrast with the report:

With regard to all other key driving forces for South Asian FDI, the regional performance in terms of effects of policies on FDI growth over the last decade lags the average developing country, more precisely South Asia featured the lowest reduction in corporate tax rates as a share of profits (and actual increases outside India), and hence a net negative effect on its FDI growth, as well as the largest decline in investment policy openness, the lowest level of natural resources per capita, and largest deterioration in political stability (particularly for South Asia outside India), again mostly with a negative impact on inward FDI growth with the exception of a light positive effect from trade liberalization (Figure 21).

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The report also has some interesting charts that illustrate the challenges and potential solutions. Here are a couple:

 

[Sky lord]

Thanks @LeveragedBuyout

The numbers that jumped out to me was that 1 million new workers are going to enter the job market every month. This totally boggles the mind. How can so many people ever be absorbed.. Is it even possible...Is there going to be unrest/revolution ...I wonder,

 

[Aepsilons]

Thanks @LeveragedBuyout

The numbers that jumped out to me was that 1 million new workers are going to enter the job market every month. This totally boggles the mind. How can so many people ever be absorbed.. Is it even possible...Is there going to be unrest/revolution ...I wonder,

Where there is a supply, there will be demand.

 

[Gibbs]

This World Bank report is a bit dated (from 2013), but I think the issues it covers are still relevant for encouraging growth in South Asia. The report covers each country, but here is the abstract for the region (@Shotgunner51 @Azizam may be of interest to you as well):

To regain the strong growth it had before the global crisis, South Asia will have to manage a combination of persistent external economic headwinds and increasing regional macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities. Macroeconomic policies to tackle the adverse effects of the global downturn have left the South Asian countries with weaker fiscal and monetary options to stimulate growth today. With the exception of Afghanistan, economic growth across other South Asian countries- Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka-has been moderating or stagnating. In Bangladesh, with export and investment growth slowing, Gross Domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to fall to around 6 percent in FY2013/14, down from 6.3 percent in FY2012/13. Over the same period, Bhutan saw its growth rate decline from almost 9 percent to 7.6 percent. India's economy slowed significantly. As a result, growth of a subdued 3 percent is expected in FY2012/13, down from 4.6 percent in FY2011/12. A significant drop in the region's exports and fixed investment are primarily responsible for South Asia's growth moderation. Private consumption remained stable, helped by resilient remittance flows, and is expected to only pick up slowly due to effects of persistent inflation, fiscal consolidation and slow recovery in disposable income. The overall real effective exchange rate depreciation across South Asia reflects weak economic fundamentals. International reserves fell below critical levels of two months of import coverage in Pakistan and one month in Maldives, reflecting the two countries' difficult external situations. During the first eight months of FY2012/13, Pakistan's net international reserves fell to 1.8 months, down from 2.6 months in the previous fiscal year.

---

The World Bank also helpfully provides a press release with a bit more detail, if you don't want to read the full report. An excerpt:

Much of the recent slowdown in economic growth can be attributed to stagnating investment. Total fixed investment grew by 2.6% in 2012, down from a high of 16.7% in 2010. The performance varies widely across the region. For example, total investment in Pakistan during the 2011/12 fiscal year hit a historic low of 12.5% of GDP, while India is projected to register investment at 30.6% for fiscal year 2012/13, only slightly down from the previous year.

In common with global trends, most countries in South Asia have increased their levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) over the last decade. But much of this is skewed toward the services sectors, such as construction, financial and business services, with less going toward agriculture or manufacturing. This, to a large degree reflects a lack of attractive investment opportunities. Some countries, notably Bangladesh and Pakistan, have recently suffered significant declines in overall FDI.

“Exports and domestic consumption are expected to contribute only modestly to growth, and so a revival in investment will be critical for South Asia to regain momentum,” said Rama.“Over the next 20 years, more than 1 million new workers will be entering the South Asian labor force each month. Countries will need to improve their business climate to attract the private sector investment needed for these new entrants to find productive jobs, thereby reducing poverty and boosting shared prosperity.”

---

Whatever South Asia does, it will need to create a more favorable business climate to attract FDI. In short, that means deregulation (or at least a stable regulatory environment), a favorable tax environment, political stability, and strong institutions (control of corruption). Contrast with the report:

With regard to all other key driving forces for South Asian FDI, the regional performance in terms of effects of policies on FDI growth over the last decade lags the average developing country, more precisely South Asia featured the lowest reduction in corporate tax rates as a share of profits (and actual increases outside India), and hence a net negative effect on its FDI growth, as well as the largest decline in investment policy openness, the lowest level of natural resources per capita, and largest deterioration in political stability (particularly for South Asia outside India), again mostly with a negative impact on inward FDI growth with the exception of a light positive effect from trade liberalization (Figure 21).

---

The report also has some interesting charts that illustrate the challenges and potential solutions. Here are a couple:

View attachment 236575

View attachment 236576

Tks mate.. Very interesting data

 

[Lord ZeN]

Step one- Send Bhakt and right wingers of all religions into concentration camps.....development will automatically follow....

It's about entire South Asia not just India and there aren't any Bhakts in Pakistan and BD. But are they developed ?

 

[Lord ZeN]

Post any development idea or success stories from South Asia or elsewhere and how they can be related and adapted by South Asia on this thread. Also, remember to be humble and avoid using provocative language.

First and foremost, AWESOME Thread @Azizam , thank you so much for tagging me and inviting me. Had to really think about some projects for South Asia because there's just so much that comes to mind. There are four themes that do come to mind:

Actually i made a similar thread on this very same topic & i think you guys were also in that discussion.But let me reproduce it again.

What's Keeping our region backward

But a common question that arises in our mind is what the hell is keeping us backward, what's that one reason stopping us from our march forward into the future ? Well let me be honest with you guys, actually i don't really know. So let me give out some reasons which i feel is true ( actually it might not be even relevant at all).

1.Partition of India and Pakistan
Well one would wonder how Partition of India is related to this Economic revival thread of mine. But i think it's somehow related. I think many of you would be surprised with the Sub title - "Partition of India and Pakistan". I put it that way to support the perspective of our Pakistani friends that Pakistan by itself has a unique identity and it's not just a Muslim part of India. Some of our Indians brothers have some problem to accept this very basic fact. Well see there are many psychological problems arising from this event which turned really horrific. But don't have that kind of time to list more psychological problems arising from this very event. All I i want to say is these physiological factor the discussion made by both governments on economic front.

2.Wars & Proxy wars
Well it's a well known fact that you can't have a sound economic growth & trade in a region filled with conflicts , violence & turmoil.And this being a defense forum , i don't think that here is much to discuss about all hostilities between biggest of two South Asian nations - including all the proxy wars still going on.

3.Are Socialist/Communists to be blamed
India the biggest of SA nation tried to ape the economic model of the Great Soviet Union including it's landmark 5 year plan. And it failed miserably. Ahh .. I know many here on PDF would disagree on that and say something like it was a necessary evil to protect our vulnerable work force.
But we need to give credit to Pakistan (East & West) for not falling into this trap. During the early period of independence they were actually on the right track in the field of economic growth.

4.South Asians are neither Workaholics nor innovative
Saying South Asians are neither Workaholics nor innovative would be a crude generalization. But what to do, after seeing our people many feel that way. And now is the time to prove all those who think that way wrong.

5.Trade Barriers
Our region is the least economically connected region and it's such a shame in this age of globalization.Like someone said no trade no development seems to hundred percent true. Well the graph below presents the pathetic condition of our region. I truly feel that together we could have achieved much better.

6.Vision less leaders
I guess i don't need to point out the obvious reason. We South Asian know what kind of leaders we had in the past. And they were nothing like Modi ji in the economic front.

Our Way forward
No country can develop in isolation. We need to sort out our difference( both internal and external) and move ahead hand in hand, at-least in the economic front . I'm not saying that we should be best buddies but we must compromise. We must atleast become what China and Japan is today for the future of our region, for our own South Asia.

• So let us make a list of what our South Asian countries must do both individually and collectively . And Let me start with my own country - India

1. Building a strong Manufacturing Sector
Our manufacturing just accounts for 16% of India’s GDP, the Indian manufacturing sector is only responsible for a tiny 2 % of the world’s manufacturing output. Now that's a real shame when we compare it our norther neighbor -China whose 34% of GDP comes from manufacturing.

The manufacturing sector has been plagued by an all-or-nothing philosophy for years. India is home to a variety of giant manufacturing enterprises, but there are very few smaller enterprises. If more small enterprises popped up, it would create more manufacturing jobs and turn India into a legitimate manufacturing option for other countries around the world — both of which would boost the overall economy. And i think "make in India" exactly aims at that

2. Eliminating power deficiency
Nothing can run without power . Factories cannot produce and trains cannot run without power. India’s output comes to a screeching halt every time the power goes out, and the electricity crisis isn't in the rear-view mirror. So making more Nuclear power plants , hydraulic power plants and also solar power plants should be our priority.

3. Competitive exports / service
India has a highly-educated labor force given its per-capita GDP. Our service sector could easily outrun other Asian countries in areas such as information tech, programming, and creative endeavors. Put in place the necessary infrastructure for maximizing these sectors (i.e. high-speed internet, phone lines, the world's best engineering schools, creative-based education, rapid trains, etc). Start in just one state in India (the way China did in early 80s) to make it cost-effective.

4. Eliminating Tax Terrorism.
Economically illiterate Congress men and Commies made India into a place with an absurd tax regime. It's time we get rid of it and it's our good luck that BJP government is already on it. Replacing India’s complicated indirect tax system with goods-and-services tax would be a good start.

5. Improving our governance
Like Modi ji said - India needs maximum governance and minimum government. There is no point having the world’s largest democracy unless it leads to effective government. And we can't expect a economic development without good governance

6. Increase trade with our neighbors
India has little trade with Pakistan even after sharing a large border. And like i said no country can develop in isolation. We need to sort out our difference and move ahead.

7. Build more infrastructure
It's obvious that we need to build more and more and even more Infrastructure.It's time to adopt some of that Chinese drive to invest in infrastructure.

And these things are also applicable other SA countries too. Lets hope for bright future for our South Asia.

Making South Asia an Economic power. My POV

 

[Guynextdoor2]

It's about entire South Asia not just India and there aren't any Bhakts in Pakistan and BD. But are they developed ?

I said right wingers of all relegions