SinoChallenger
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We are moving unavoidably toward a third world war, similar to how you could tell by 1911 that great power rivalry was going to lead to WW1.
USA plans to launch a ground attack on Iran within 5 years, before the Iranians successfully mass produce ballistic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv together with nuclear warheads. USA needs Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan as staging areas for the ground invasion, so USA will try to bully Pakistan. If Pakistan reacts with hostility, USA could say "Islamic extremists have taken over Pakistan, we must secure Pakistan's nukes."
USA will try to ally with india. india is already trying to develop the capability to fight a two-front war: push back PLA from the LAC with a sudden attack while launching Cold Start on Pakistan. india might shy away at first to push a harder bargain with Washington because india is also afraid of being cannon fodder for USA, but the temptation to knock out Pakistan and China at the same time with US help will be too much in the end.
China will need to task the entire Lanzhou military region and Chengdu military region to the indian theater of war. Meanwhile, to help relieve india, USA and its allies Japan and South Korea would probably open a second front by attacking North Korea, trying to bottle up PLAN in the East China Sea or South China Sea or blockade Chinese shipping through the Straits of Malacca. At least 70% of China's military strength cannot be deploy against india but must held back to defend against USA counterattacks.
The only reasonable solution is for China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran to form a military bloc -- the PRIC countries -- to defend ourselves. india and Vietnam both use Russian weapons and Russia can disable some of them using a back-door kill switch. China would also really benefit from Russian oil supply for the war, especially if the Straits of Malacca are cut by US Navy.
2012 will be a election year in the US and also a change of leadership in Beijing. But in 2013, the battle lines would be competely drawn and the PRIC formalized in SCO. The risk of global conflict involving both Middle East and East Asia is very high between 2013 and 2016, IMO.
USA plans to launch a ground attack on Iran within 5 years, before the Iranians successfully mass produce ballistic missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv together with nuclear warheads. USA needs Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan as staging areas for the ground invasion, so USA will try to bully Pakistan. If Pakistan reacts with hostility, USA could say "Islamic extremists have taken over Pakistan, we must secure Pakistan's nukes."
USA will try to ally with india. india is already trying to develop the capability to fight a two-front war: push back PLA from the LAC with a sudden attack while launching Cold Start on Pakistan. india might shy away at first to push a harder bargain with Washington because india is also afraid of being cannon fodder for USA, but the temptation to knock out Pakistan and China at the same time with US help will be too much in the end.
China will need to task the entire Lanzhou military region and Chengdu military region to the indian theater of war. Meanwhile, to help relieve india, USA and its allies Japan and South Korea would probably open a second front by attacking North Korea, trying to bottle up PLAN in the East China Sea or South China Sea or blockade Chinese shipping through the Straits of Malacca. At least 70% of China's military strength cannot be deploy against india but must held back to defend against USA counterattacks.
The only reasonable solution is for China, Russia, Pakistan and Iran to form a military bloc -- the PRIC countries -- to defend ourselves. india and Vietnam both use Russian weapons and Russia can disable some of them using a back-door kill switch. China would also really benefit from Russian oil supply for the war, especially if the Straits of Malacca are cut by US Navy.
2012 will be a election year in the US and also a change of leadership in Beijing. But in 2013, the battle lines would be competely drawn and the PRIC formalized in SCO. The risk of global conflict involving both Middle East and East Asia is very high between 2013 and 2016, IMO.