A.Rahman
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Defining Victory: The Differing Goals of Israel and Hezbollah
Introduction
Israel and Hezbollah, combatants in Lebanon, have different tactical goals and different ways of positioning themselves to emerge from the current crisis and claim victory. Hezbollah is trying to increase its regional and international profile, and brand itself as the only group to successfully battle the mighty Israeli army. Israel seeks to stop Hezbollah's daily launching of rockets at its territory, establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon patrolled by an international force, and prevent Hezbollah from re-arming after the crisis. "Israel has to deal a knockout blow to Hezbollah's capabilities, but Hezbollah just has to not lose," says CFR Fellow Steven A. Cook.
How would Israel define victory?
"Israelis don't speak in terms of victory," says Michael Herzog, a brigadier general in the Israeli army and a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "They speak in terms of the objectives they want to accomplish: to seriously degrade Hezbollah's military capabilities as much as possible. This is to weaken the group, and also to reestablish deterrence, so that even if Hezbollah has rockets, they will be much more cautious about using them." Israel will also try to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, patrolled by a combination of international forces and Lebanese troops, to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to launch rockets or raids on Israel.
These goals have shifted from the start of the conflict, experts say. Then, Israeli officials spoke of eliminating the Hezbollah threat. "I think people realize Hezbollah will not voluntarily disarm, and there's no force on the ground that will force them to disarm," Herzog says. "But even if we can't disarm them, we can prevent them from re-arming to the same level."
Some experts speculate that Israel also seeks to push into Lebanese territory and hold it to use in negotiations for a ceasefire. "Israel is desperate to gain control of some territory to use as a bargaining chip," says Nabil Abuznaid, a spokesman for the Palestinian mission to the United Nations.
How would Hezbollah define victory?
"Victory is to survive the onslaught and emerge, once again, as the Arab force that takes the lead in confronting Israel," says Hussein Ibish, executive director of the Foundation for Arab-American Leadership. "Hezbollah knows they're a very small fighting force, but the role they seek to play is that of the vanguard of what they call the culture of resistance." Hezbollah is burnishing its image as a heroic band that can inflict damage on the much stronger Israeli army, which the much larger forces of Arab nations could not do.
Many Middle East experts say Hezbollah wins just by holding out this long. "To them, three weeks is a victory," Abuznaid says. "Forty years ago, the Arab armies didn't last one week against Israel." Herzog says Hezbollah has set a very low threshold for itself. "[Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan] Nasrallah initially defined victory as survival," Herzog says. "All he has to do is put his head down and keep firing rockets at Israel. Then, when there's a ceasefire, he comes out of his bunker to say, 'We won.'"
Introduction
Israel and Hezbollah, combatants in Lebanon, have different tactical goals and different ways of positioning themselves to emerge from the current crisis and claim victory. Hezbollah is trying to increase its regional and international profile, and brand itself as the only group to successfully battle the mighty Israeli army. Israel seeks to stop Hezbollah's daily launching of rockets at its territory, establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon patrolled by an international force, and prevent Hezbollah from re-arming after the crisis. "Israel has to deal a knockout blow to Hezbollah's capabilities, but Hezbollah just has to not lose," says CFR Fellow Steven A. Cook.
How would Israel define victory?
"Israelis don't speak in terms of victory," says Michael Herzog, a brigadier general in the Israeli army and a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "They speak in terms of the objectives they want to accomplish: to seriously degrade Hezbollah's military capabilities as much as possible. This is to weaken the group, and also to reestablish deterrence, so that even if Hezbollah has rockets, they will be much more cautious about using them." Israel will also try to create a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, patrolled by a combination of international forces and Lebanese troops, to prevent Hezbollah from using the area to launch rockets or raids on Israel.
"Israel has to deal a knockout blow to Hezbollah's capabilities, but Hezbollah just has to not lose," says Steven A. Cook
These goals have shifted from the start of the conflict, experts say. Then, Israeli officials spoke of eliminating the Hezbollah threat. "I think people realize Hezbollah will not voluntarily disarm, and there's no force on the ground that will force them to disarm," Herzog says. "But even if we can't disarm them, we can prevent them from re-arming to the same level."
"Even if we can't disarm them, we can prevent them from re-arming to the same level," Herzog says.
Some experts speculate that Israel also seeks to push into Lebanese territory and hold it to use in negotiations for a ceasefire. "Israel is desperate to gain control of some territory to use as a bargaining chip," says Nabil Abuznaid, a spokesman for the Palestinian mission to the United Nations.
How would Hezbollah define victory?
"Victory is to survive the onslaught and emerge, once again, as the Arab force that takes the lead in confronting Israel," says Hussein Ibish, executive director of the Foundation for Arab-American Leadership. "Hezbollah knows they're a very small fighting force, but the role they seek to play is that of the vanguard of what they call the culture of resistance." Hezbollah is burnishing its image as a heroic band that can inflict damage on the much stronger Israeli army, which the much larger forces of Arab nations could not do.
Many Middle East experts say Hezbollah wins just by holding out this long. "To them, three weeks is a victory," Abuznaid says. "Forty years ago, the Arab armies didn't last one week against Israel." Herzog says Hezbollah has set a very low threshold for itself. "[Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan] Nasrallah initially defined victory as survival," Herzog says. "All he has to do is put his head down and keep firing rockets at Israel. Then, when there's a ceasefire, he comes out of his bunker to say, 'We won.'"