Defense Minister Liang: China still 20 to 30 years behind in terms of weaponry

[marshall]

The sensors and electronics are the part we're least behind on I think. My father worked on his PhD on piezoelectric ceramic sensors sponsonred by CSSC; he said that in 1999, we were 10 years behind the US on this, but the quality of recent publications has indicated we've basically achieved parity.

So are you saying China is <5 years behind the state of the art in AESA radars, jammers and datalinks as well? In the early 2000s, China was pretty much just beginning to catch up in these areas from the looks of it and I don't think it's AESA program was even off the ground yet.

 

[RollingStones]

First of all, even if China surges ahead of the US economy, they would be only at a level they should have been, had they developed as quickly as the US. Because at US per capita levels, both China and India should be around $50 trillion economies each. This is all about energy source. Does the planet have energy sources for these countries and the existing economies to get to these marks? No energy source, no development. India and China's development will be limited by the availability of energy sources and the pace at which it is made available. At least for the present, both India and China have to devise plans to get to the US' levels of installed power capacity. They also should take the lead on harnessing Ocean energy and other sources. Carbohydron sources are fast depleting. This is the real race. the arms race and other races between countries pale in comparison to the energy/resources race. If you want a job that pays well, become a commodities trader.

 

[tanlixiang28776]

So are you saying China is <5 years behind the state of the art in AESA radars, jammers and datalinks as well? In the early 2000s, China was pretty much just beginning to catch up in these areas from the looks of it and I don't think it's AESA program was even off the ground yet.

Well now it 2011 and AESAs have already been integrated into both AWACs and Destroyers. Smaller ones for fighters are going to be installed in J10 B and J11 B. Don't be pessimistic. We get things done really fast when its something we need.

 

[marshall]

Well now it 2011 and AESAs have already been integrated into both AWACs and Destroyers. Smaller ones for fighters are going to be installed in J10 B and J11 B. Don't be pessimistic. We get things done really fast when its something we need.

This is scarily fast if accurate. I've predicted that China will catch up to world state-of-the-art technology in every "commercial" field within 5 years and catch up to state-of-the-art non-military scientific research by 2020. However, military technology has always been the laggard and the weakness that will be exploited by the Anglo-American alliance aka. "Western" world order.

As far as we know, turbofans are now finally coming along without any serious bottlenecks. Nuclear reactors for naval propulsion on the other hand seems to be way way behind schedule. Rumors have been floating around about the 095 for over 10 years but there doesn't seem to be any progress and it all points back to the nuclear reactor.

 

[below_freezing]

China is actually most backwards on traditional technologies like engines and reactors, excluding certain ones heavily developed during Mao's rule such as steel and power plants. That's why we can't even make a ship diesel engine since 2008 but could fabricate ICs since 2001.

RollingStones:

China recently surpassed the US in total power consumed and the trend is up. The question now is whether we can use nuclear for a greater part and not depend on coal and oil. We also don't need to beat the US in per capita. Countries the US regards as "developed" like South Korea have less than half the GDP/capita of the US (yet south Korea also has sky high prices). A GDP/capita 1/3 that of the US would be fine. In terms of national power, it's always the total GDP, total government budget and military budget that matters, not GDP/capita. GDP/capita is useful for roughly measuring living standards though not always.

 

[S10]

This is scarily fast if accurate. I've predicted that China will catch up to world state-of-the-art technology in every "commercial" field within 5 years and catch up to state-of-the-art non-military scientific research by 2020. However, military technology has always been the laggard and the weakness that will be exploited by the Anglo-American alliance aka. "Western" world order.

As far as we know, turbofans are now finally coming along without any serious bottlenecks. Nuclear reactors for naval propulsion on the other hand seems to be way way behind schedule. Rumors have been floating around about the 095 for over 10 years but there doesn't seem to be any progress and it all points back to the nuclear reactor.

Problem with the Chinese AESA program was not that it could not produce it, but the T/R modules required was very expensive to manufacture. I remember reading some guy who worked in the industry that said domestic T/R modules cost 3 to 5 times that of Japan or United States. That was nearly 5 years ago. As far as overall development goes, there is no generation gap.

 

[Akasa]

well downsizing would help, china has officially stated it eventually wants an army closer to the size of the us and russia

Certainly. The PLA should focus on transitioning the men into smaller, highly trained unit.

 

[Akasa]

Not going to happen. The person who makes the decisions is General Liang and he said, without at least 2 million army China will be a weak nation.

Having 2 million men but not enough equipment to arm them still makes China weak

 

[Akasa]

So are you saying China is <5 years behind the state of the art in AESA radars, jammers and datalinks as well? In the early 2000s, China was pretty much just beginning to catch up in these areas from the looks of it and I don't think it's AESA program was even off the ground yet.

Chinese AESA has already almost completed testing

Speaking of jammers, ECCM, etc, just take a look at the Type 052C, KJ-2000, etc, and you'll see that China has actually not far behind. I would say about 7 years.

China also has L-band AESA radar already deployed in KJ-2000

 

[Akasa]

Well now it 2011 and AESAs have already been integrated into both AWACs and Destroyers. Smaller ones for fighters are going to be installed in J10 B and J11 B. Don't be pessimistic. We get things done really fast when its something we need.

Not only J-11B and J-10B, but also J-15 as well.

And don't forget 5G fighters like J-20, J-16, etc....

 

[tanlixiang28776]

Not only J-11B and J-10B, but also J-15 as well.

And don't forget 5G fighters like J-20, J-16, etc....

Lets not count what will happen in the future like you know whos.

 

[Akasa]

Lets not count what will happen in the future like you know whos.

No no the J-15 will be getting AESAs for sure. They reported it along with the J-11B.

5G fighters will by default get AESA. There's not question about that. Otherwise they wouldn't be 5G.

 

[applesauce]

Problem with the Chinese AESA program was not that it could not produce it, but the T/R modules required was very expensive to manufacture. I remember reading some guy who worked in the industry that said domestic T/R modules cost 3 to 5 times that of Japan or United States. That was nearly 5 years ago. As far as overall development goes, there is no generation gap.

they said the exact same thing about russian modules

 

[CardSharp]

Problem with the Chinese AESA program was not that it could not produce it, but the T/R modules required was very expensive to manufacture. I remember reading some guy who worked in the industry that said domestic T/R modules cost 3 to 5 times that of Japan or United States. That was nearly 5 years ago. As far as overall development goes, there is no generation gap.

Any ideas why they cost more? Specific problem or just unfamiliar production methods?

 

[S10]

Any ideas why they cost more? Specific problem or just unfamiliar production methods?

I think it's a mix of low demand at the time and they were not familiar with a new product. Pretty sure it's must cheaper since a good number of years have passed.