Debunking Indian Claims of “Surgical Strike” in Pakistan.

[Taha Samad]

So having established in my previous post that there is no clear indication of on-ground operation by Indian Forces on Pakistani Side of LOC; what we know is that Indian Military claims is that it carried out some sort of operation against Launchpads 'along the LoC', which it termed as "Surgical Strikes".

- Was it on Pakistani Side? Not clear
- Were Indian Troops on ground on Pakistani Side? Not clear
- Was there artillery/mortar fire? Yes

What Indian Media is claiming?

Indian SF on foot entered Pakistani Side, destroyed 5-6 launchpads, returned back. Artillery fire was for distraction & cover. Launchpads were 1-3KM deep. Op observed by UAV. Helis on standby.

Analysis:

Based on Indian Media reports we can establish following:

- 1-3KM deep targets, with well known location.
- UAV could observe whole area of operation.
- Objective was to destroy launchpads & not to bring back bodies, material.
- Since no one in public or media or military got alerted by blasts and firing: we can assume the targets were in report location with no population hence eliminating chance of collateral damage or alert.

Now from pure military stand point what were the options for this operation:

1 Strike by SF as media claims
2 Accurate Artillery fire/mortar fire.
3 Air Strike

Option#3 Would escalate matters, hence not a good option for a limited objective of destroying launchpads.

Options#1 Possible but is risky and hence highly unlikely; as there was chance of troops getting killed or captured. Helis could have been shot down or at least escalated the matters. Plus what advantage does it have over artillery strikes? The Indian troops were not supposed to bring back any material or bodies(like in the case abbottabad). The targets were in reach of other weapons(artillery/mortar) unlike Abbottabad which would require drone, aerial, covert or SF mission. Since targets were remote areas collateral damage in case of artillery strike would not have been a consideration. Artillery fire could have been directed using UAV which as reported by Indian media recorded whole operation. Even if there was chance that initial in-accurate fire by artillery could alert occupants. Following technique could be used:

"When ranging rounds are needed surprise can be preserved using an 'auxiliary adjusting point'. This point should be an equal range from the battery as the target point but along a different azimuth. Once the chosen auxiliary point is hit the range is dialed in and the switch can easily be made to the target point. (error is usually greater in the range component). Care must be taken that the auxiliary point is far enough from the target to obscure the real purpose."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_for_effect

So in my analysis strike by ground forces does not make any sense from military point of view.

Most likely option exercised based on what we know till now is that India accurately fired at some locations which they believe were launch pads with artillery/mortar directed by UAV. Then keeping op details vague in press briefing, cleverly termed this as "Surgical Strike" & let Indian media do what it does best. Public gets satisfied. Modi jee saves face & votes. Military gets favorable public opinion. Pakistan considers it usual thing and does not escalate.

 

[sbh02]

The Indian Army has a tendency to create fictional accounts, and their hysterical media further exaggerates these fictional accounts. This incident is exactly the same as what they falsely stated about Myanmar last year:

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...m-of-killing-rebels-inside-its-territory-afp/

 

[Joe Shearer]

Whats your take on it sir? I mean the whole strike thing. I think i have missed your post. If you have made one can you point me in that direction?

I hadn't actually, and one reason is because I am confused.

First, let's discard the re-construction that Indian media seems to have made, based on the bits and pieces that the DGMO dropped. Tantalising bits, one tooth fossil at a time, from which our journalists (may their bones rot) built the entire Piltdown Man. That didn't happen; there were no helicopters clattering through the nights, or shadowy C130s dropping sticks of paratroopers on their way to precision landings near their targets. Nor did anyone crawl 3 kms, blow up a launching pad and its contiguous Pakistan Army outpost and come back, all in that time.

What's left is bits and pieces that people who know have been revealing, and it is extremely frustrating to make sense out of those.

Judging from the attitudes and words and general postures to be found within services formations something happened. Something very pleasing happened. Clearly, it didn't happen the way our journos (may their bones rot) visualised. Oscar tried a reconstruction rather different from that of the journos (may their bones...etc.,etc.), but it didn't tally with the mysterious clues given.

So what have we left?

Just the clues, as is where is.

Perhaps the best way out is to list them and let everyone make what they will of them.

1. More than one detachment of SF involved
2. more than one target involved
3. each detachment very small - shouts of laughter on hearing speculation of company strength
4. distracting helicopter flights - very active
5. distracting artillery fire - not intended to cause specific damage
6. detachments used to spot for tasked artillery
7. precision artillery used to do the damage

And that's it. I couldn't reconstruct much from this. If someone else can, I'd like to know.

Something happened, but nobody is telling us the truth. On reading the responses I get the clear feeling that both armies know precisely what happened, and have precisely no intention of sharing that with us. On either side.

PS: After writing this, I saw @Taha Samad 's #50 and #55.

Except for my #1, #3 and #6, the two analyses match. I suspect his account, with some minor modification, will prove to be the closest. What the Indian DGMO didn't say was as important as what he did say.

 

[P@nThEr]

The Indian Army has a tendency to create fictional accounts, and their hysterical media further exaggerates these fictional accounts. This incident is exactly the same as what they falsely stated about Myanmar last year:

http://indianexpress.com/article/in...m-of-killing-rebels-inside-its-territory-afp/

Killing those rebels propagate to both country's interest & also denying it..

 

[New Resolve]

They were claiming the same thing a week ago too and that also blew up in their faces, if the fan boys were disappointed then wait till the truth sinks in about this one.

 

[Spy Master]

Given CARTOSAT and general observation intel was probably gathered over a long time (regarding routes used by forces on the other side), this should not have posed any issue.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...sat-images-for-Army/articleshow/54596113.cms?

It is also important to understand from Indian side, such strikes (although smaller) have occured before, they just were not made official.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ealing-with-pakistan/articleshow/54597079.cms

It was the official declaration of this one that breaks previous precedent.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...er-uri-terror-attack/articleshow/54594097.cms

This is from Indian perspective, so you will probably personally feel you need some salt to go with it.

@hellfire @Joe Shearer @PARIKRAMA

Lol yeah Good story..Keep in mind kid, we are not Bhutan or Mayanmar...These stories are good only for domestic consumption and your army has successfully achieved another feat...!
Just Like your AF painted own Aircraft as PAF...!

 

[IceCold]

I hadn't actually, and one reason is because I am confused.

First, let's discard the re-construction that Indian media seems to have made, based on the bits and pieces that the DGMO dropped. Tantalising bits, one tooth fossil at a time, from which our journalists (may their bones rot) built the entire Piltdown Man. That didn't happen; there were no helicopters clattering through the nights, or shadowy C130s dropping sticks of paratroopers on their way to precision landings near their targets. Nor did anyone crawl 3 kms, blow up a launching pad and its contiguous Pakistan Army outpost and come back, all in that time.

What's left is bits and pieces that people who know have been revealing, and it is extremely frustrating to make sense out of those.

Judging from the attitudes and words and general postures to be found within services formations something happened. Something very pleasing happened. Clearly, it didn't happen the way our journos (may their bones rot) visualised. Oscar tried a reconstruction rather different from that of the journos (may their bones...etc.,etc.), but it didn't tally with the mysterious clues given.

So what have we left?

Just the clues, as is where is.

Perhaps the best way out is to list them and let everyone make what they will of them.

1. More than one detachment of SF involved
2. more than one target involved
3. each detachment very small - shouts of laughter on hearing speculation of company strength
4. distracting helicopter flights - very active
5. distracting artillery fire - not intended to cause specific damage
6. detachments used to spot for tasked artillery
7. precision artillery used to do the damage

And that's it. I couldn't reconstruct much from this. If someone else can, I'd like to know.

Something happened, but nobody is telling us the truth. On reading the responses I get the clear feeling that both armies know precisely what happened, and have precisely no intention of sharing that with us. On either side.

PS: After writing this, I saw @Taha Samad 's #2050 and #2052.

Except for my #1, #3 and #6, the two analyses match. I suspect his account, with some minor modification, will prove to be the closest. What the Indian DGMO didn't say was as important as what he did say.

Thanks for the detailed reply. If i can bother you with one more thing whats your take on the post above you? Post #47 and the questions raised? I did read Hellfire take on it about attacking launch pads but than question number 5 arises in the above post how did Indian army located them and why would there be a such a massive number of terrorists or whatever you wish to call them would be there knowing the situation?
Another thing today there is a huge march against Nawaz Sharif and before yesterday it was about panama leaks but now is has turned to how a leader should reply to India. At the same time there is a meeting going on between army chief and NS about this whole fiasco. Point that i am trying to make is that NS will be under alot of pressure so do you think we will hit you back and if we do how than will India respond?

 

[Salahuddin Ayyubi]

 

[Joe Shearer]

Thanks for the detailed reply. If i can bother you with one more thing whats your take on the post above you? Post #47 and the questions raised? I did read Hellfire take on it about attacking launch pads but than question number 5 arises in the above post how did Indian army located them and why would there be a such a massive number of terrorists or whatever you wish to call them would be there knowing the situation?
Another thing today there is a huge march against Nawaz Sharif and before yesterday it was about panama leaks but now is has turned to how a leader should reply to India. At the same time there is a meeting going on between army chief and NS about this whole fiasco. Point that i am trying to make is that NS will be under alot of pressure so do you think we will hit you back and if we do how than will India respond?

I also just saw two posts by hellfire sandwiching one by Oscar which seems to match what the two posts by Taha Samad seem to be saying.

Which #47 is that? In this present configuration, that is a post about a confidence trickster posing as a defence analyst. Did you mean one of the posts by Taha Samad?

Regarding the launch pads, I am given to understand by one of the sources that infiltrators have been using Garmin devices and that they can be analysed (if recovered intact) to find out exactly where the carrier set out from. Apparently a fairly full list of these 'launch pads' has been made.

These locations were hit; how many terrorists were hit is not known (to avoid injuries to amour propre, I would call them infiltrators!).

As for the future, there is so much speculation about the politics of the whole thing that I fear rushing in where angels fear to tread. But it looks like there will be a series of attacks in a diminuendo, slowly dying in intensity and effect, until the thing boils down to the usual, very stupid cross-border firing, where only some hapless civilian gets hit.

Hope that is useful.

@notorious_eagle
@hellfire

 

[hassamun]

What's your evidence?Article of Dawn or video editing tutorial on Geo?
You people can see lying Indian dead bodies but can't even able to take a snap of it..
Also make make fake propaganda of capturing Indian soldier..Take a break..
Also Osama was also a lie,Pakistan won in 1971..

Reuters India also confirmed the arrest of the Indian Soldier as per BOTH sides...

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=10154365140235630

Watch from 01:55...

Any other fake propaganda???

 

[IceCold]

I also just saw two posts by hellfire sandwiching one by Oscar which seems to match what the two posts by Taha Samad seem to be saying.

Which #47 is that? In this present configuration, that is a post about a confidence trickster posing as a defence analyst. Did you mean one of the posts by Taha Samad?

Regarding the launch pads, I am given to understand by one of the sources that infiltrators have been using Garmin devices and that they can be analysed (if recovered intact) to find out exactly where the carrier set out from. Apparently a fairly full list of these 'launch pads' has been made.

These locations were hit; how many terrorists were hit is not known (to avoid injuries to amour propre, I would call them infiltrators!).

As for the future, there is so much speculation about the politics of the whole thing that I fear rushing in where angels fear to tread. But it looks like there will be a series of attacks in a diminuendo, slowly dying in intensity and effect, until the thing boils down to the usual, very stupid cross-border firing, where only some hapless civilian gets hit.

Hope that is useful.

#SurgicalStrikes: 6 Questions
SEEMA MUSTAFA


#SurgicalStrikes: 6 Questions

SEEMA MUSTAFA
Friday, September 30,2016
NEW DELHI: 24 hours after the Indian Army carried out the surgical strikes taking out seven terror launch pads in Pakistan, both New Delhi and Islamabad seem to be engaged in a new war of words centering around “I am right, believe me” rhetoric for their domestic constituencies.

The world community is following the fracas, rather silently, with just a caution that both the countries must not escalate tensions. The global media has reported the strikes with a big dose of scepticism, giving the ‘Indian version’ versus the ‘Pakistan version’ that claims that the Indian Army did not cross the Line of Control, that two Pakistani soldiers were killed in cross border fire, that one Indian soldier had been captured and several others killed or injured.

That an Indian soldier has been captured by the Pakistani Army has now been confirmed by New Delhi as well, although predictably the versions of how this happened differ. But the soldier is in Pakistan captivity.

It is clear that New Delhi will be called upon to give more details soon. And perhaps release the photographic evidence the Army said it has about the strikes. Questions are already being raised about the paucity of details in the international media and Pakistan is likely to step up the demand for ‘proof’. Of course, it goes without saying that both India and Pakistan will contest the details of the strikes for their own domestic reasons, with the government in New Delhi looking for well earned applause before the crucial elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab; and Pakistan waiting for home domestic response to crystallise before taking the next step.

The uncertainty of the current situation lies in this ‘next step’ with top level meetings being held in Islamabad to determine whether to escalate the situation or let it go. Given the fact that the Pakistan Army, like the right wing here, believes in a well oiled moustache too it is unlikely that Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif will let this incident past without reprisal, more so as he is due to retire in six weeks and will prefer a swan song to a limp last record. Peace is not the constituency of either.

Details about the strikes are still missing, and New Delhi will need to answer the questions that are already finding their way into the public domain, reglardless of the jingoistic hysteria created by sections of the media and the political establishment.

1. What was the rough composition of the strike teams and what sectors of Pakistan territory did they hit? There is confusion about the first, and no details about the second part of this question till now.

2. Were the ground troops who carried out the operation supported by helicopters. There has been a categorical ‘yes’ followed by an equally firm ‘no’ in separate background briefings on the strikes.

3. Many reports seem to be suggesting that such strikes are carried out regularly by the military on both sides, and are kept as part of the not publicised ‘covert’ operations. And these were part of the same except for the fact that a political decision was made to bring the army action into the ‘overt operations’ space. What are the elements that make these surgical strikes different from past military action?

4. Each strike team, defence experts estimate, could comprise 7 to 15 soldiers. That means that a minimum of at least 50-60 would have entered Pakistan territory for the seven targets. Pakistan has been on high alert since the Uri terror attack. Commercial flights over the sensitive region had been stopped. Where then was the Pakistan Army in what is the most heavily guarded terrain, or rather Line of Control, in the world?

5. Terror launch pads are not constructed structures. These are last point positions really from where a group of militants are sent into India at regular periods in time. The militants are not housed here, just assembled to be pushed across. In the 1990s and earlier, as many as 20-25 militants would be brought by the Pakistan Army to a predetermined location, described as a launch pad, from where they would be taken across the LoC by ‘guides’. Lately the numbers have dwindled, and informed sources said that 4-5 persons now assemble at locations just before they are taken across by the guides. These locations change all the time, and hence there is no real location map for launch pads, a different location being determined by the Pakistan Army from time to time. It would thus be a valuable fill-in-the-blank if some details about the launch pads are provided by the Indian Army. How were these located?

6. The Army has spoken of inflicting massive casualties. And while officially no figures have been given, sources have let it be known that the numbers could be in the range of 38 or so. According to retired Generals familiar with operations, the strikes are to take out the target and not count the bodies. And that such strikes take minutes, not hours. How many Pakistanis were killed in the operation?

http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/NewsDetail/index/1/8850/SurgicalStrikes-6-Questions

The above is the post i referred to. Sorry about missing the post number. It was by Zarvan.

 

[Indian Jatt]

14 casualities from indian sides ....7 at one sector and 8 at at other

SOURCE?????

 

[sbh02]

SOURCE?????

Where is the source that 38 terrorists were killed on the Pakistani side of the LOC?

 

[Joe Shearer]

The above is the post i referred to. Sorry about missing the post number. It was by Zarvan.

Funnily, I was planning to go back and read through it carefully.

What do you make of the reconstructions which vary from the media versions: by hellfire, by Oscar (the one sandwiched by hellfire's two posts), by Taha Samad and mine? They seem to me to be pointing in roughly the same direction.

 

[Comfortably Numb]

I have been following various news sources as well as social media to try and understand about what happened yesterday morning, and have come across mainly false accounts of bravado and chest thumping on both sides but mostly on Indian side, (which is natural given the anger that they have felt after Uri attack). Although there is no verified account of the events that transpired yesterday morning, apart from the official statements of Indian military and ISPR, this is what I have gathered so far from everything that has come across and I may be wrong.
There was cross border shelling from both sides, probably started by Indians to facilitate infiltration of their forces into AJK to carry out attacks
There was attempted infiltration by Indian forces but they were either compromised, or couldn't push through and had to retreat ( nothing unusual or embarrassing in that , you either succeed or you dont in any military action)
Soldiers were killed on both sides.
Pakistan has acknowledged 2 killed and 9 wounded in cross border shelling but it could have happened in initial attack by infiltrators on one of its checkposts.
India hasnt acknowledged any casualties, fatal or otherwise (which is understandable given that it will defeat the whole purpose of getting back at Pakistan), and given the regularity of such incidents at LoC, I doubt that they ever will and this will be written as another border skirmish with loss of life.
Pakistan has claimed (unofficially so far) killing 14 Indian soldiers and capturing one.
Indians went ahead with their claim of successful attacks across LoC knowing that any loss on their side can be written off as routine border skirmishes and any attempt by Pakistan to hype this incident will only escalate the situation which will be to India's benefit.
Pakistan knows that even though they have been able to repulse this Indian attack and despite having inflicted heavy losses on Indians, they have to keep it low key and downplay the whole thing, as any escalation will hurt them more ( economically as well as the recent Kashmir uprising).
my two bits