Debate / Ideas for solutions to Pakistan's economic problems

[khansaheeb]

If any of these components are weak the development will dampen and progress will whimper out and it has to be done in that order:-

Agriculture->human capital->manufacturing->diversification-> research ->innovation->foreign Investment->Growth

 

[Blacklight]

I agree with all your points except one:-" Privatizing the state owned businesses at an accredited rate "

This should be bi-directional. Yes privatise state owned businesses for a profit (money to be used for public/community projects) and nationalise poorly run/mismanaged/ national importance businesses , revitalise them and sell them off for a profit. Also where a private sector business has a monopoly or near monopoly the gov should give it competition by creating a state controlled business and then selling this business off for a profit or maintaining a majority gov controlling share. More competition and liquidity the better for the state.

In theory this is an excellent idea, unfortunately, the acumen required to carry out such an Op does not exist.

No idea will work without land reforms.

For that to work, a 2/3 majority is required, but you wont even get 1/100th.

 

[Blacklight]

Mostly Pakistan diaspora is vocational workers. Now, imagine getting them educated and be Dr and other professionals. Only few thousands can send as much as 100 thousands from Gulf.

Education is a must for basic civic sense, HQ product making, learning etc. For instance, adopting a new technology or medium, to grow your business. Also, to convince them for long term goals like making them realise impact of product quality on sale and market retention. Such as growing HQ onion gives more return. In UK 1.1£ for 3 A grade pieces. You can also buy a 1kg bundle for 60p. So, in Pak, we need to broaden our horizon., and only education can do that.

If we don;t educate our people, then 0+0+0+0+...= 0. Number cannot do anything, if they are not productive. Plus, they will eb a burden on our social system.


Not only better vocational training, but better HE. Basic education improves our understanding, quality, hygiene, work ethics.. Like, if you try to teach the work force in Pak that every step/break/delay you take cost money to entire country, people cannot grasp it

I argue we cannot improve our H.Education bcz it require huge investment in terms of human and capital. Like, in Pakistan with just one paper and PhD, you can become an assit Prof. Here, in UK, even some lab workers have published papers. Asst prof here publish 10s of papers and have supervised a lot of projects.
I have already argued that there is a reason why we achieve highest O/A level grade achievers but cannot translate them into scientists in Pak unis. Bcz, we don't only lack infrastructure but mental faculty to to teach HE subjects.



Brother, I always doubt theses credenials. Like we have not only ministers, but even a PM who was an employee of these orgs, and they made fiscal policy of my country to serve their institution in west. I hope she is legit.
@CriticalThought @Baibars_1260 @Blacklight @The Accountant
about teaching methods, this my thread.

What is a teaching philosophy

Introduction Currently, I am in my final year of PhD at Birmingham City University (BCU). During this role, I had an opportunity to teach MSc students about research activities. Before joining BCU, I had taught various engineering modules to BSc students in Pakistan. It was my first job related...

defence.pk

@Samlee
some thoughts on agriculture
Seriously, I feel the same.. The people/org who have money, in Pak, just think of flour/sugar mils, property, news channel (not now), pvt education institutes, etc.

"They didn't think about MEMS lab, composites, high strength steel, etc. You now, our chemical imports are 5$ billion dollars !! No one interested in chemical industry except fertilisers. Then we don't have vaccine manufacturers. We need good chemical indutries for making can food, long life milk, toffees , chocolate... It will reduce bill on imports

Even we can have some HQ agrarian products, if our institutes can just do research. Like Japanese Ruby Roman grapes, 1000$/bunch, or Wagyu beef 1000$/kilo. and Gulf can be the target market to sell these expensive items. "

THIS is exactly what has been playing in my mind, getting max yield out of what we have. Wagyu beef, produced in Europe was unheard of a decade ago. But now, I'm seeing them. Changing breeds / types is something to be seriously considered.

There is an immense potential for our agri products, but we need to slightly update ourselves. Does not need a huge investment, just educating farmers, but this has to be done on a nation wide scale for us to benefit from it.

You cant imagine my surprise at seeing purple potatoes, from Okara, in Italy!

 

[Darth Vader]

Aerospace is one sector, what other sectors can you identify, given our limitations, that could be a major export for us?

Compute - Investment in AI - That can actually help us solve a lot of limited resources problems
Aero Space itself is not just 1 Sector.
Aeronautics & Space itself is a giant field as you will huge human & Material resources but earn is profitable but biggest profitability lies after this century.
As when you see actual human movement out of Earth's orbit.
1 Pakistan will be not dependent on China.
2 Pakistan can rent out its systems to other smaller countries just like Russia, India and Tesla and other organizations are starting to do now it will generate a lot of revenue,
3 Alot of those asteroids can cripple the human economy but most will be used outside of Earth for external exploration so at least in Next Century Muslims are at least not dependent on modern tech like for the last few centuries.
4 It will build new industries related to this and can build and help the Pakistani public sector in generating revenue and modern systems which can be invested to get better cheaper systems
5 Problem with Suparco is yes they have low funding but have they started any new relevant missions which actually need more funding, even with limited funding they need to step up so they can become relevant in the public eye which will force the state to increase the funding.
Everyone keeps saying Priviting is the way to go but you have to understand the biggest Issue is Majority of the private sector is on hold by very few people and they already get benefits from being politicians are from supporting them so it doesn't actually matter much. What's the official title.

Unless you don't have a stronger middle class which and new companies it doesn't offer much.

 

[Blacklight]

You are being redirected...

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australian Government

As Australia's national science agency and innovation catalyst, we solve the greatest challenges through innovative science and technology.

www.csiro.au

Page Not Found | Ministry of Food, Agriculture, and Rural Affairs

Agrinatura

The European Alliance on Agricultural knowledge for Development

agrinatura-eu.eu

SCAR

Standing Committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) European Research and Innovation (R&I) in agriculture, forestry, food and the wider bioeconomyareessentialtoacceleratetheEuropeanGreenDealagenda,throughscientificevidenceandinnovativesolutions. TheGreen

scar-europe.org

The above are some agencies we should tie up ASAP, learn, and then build our own R&D institutes with help / guidance from them.

 

[Goenitz]

Lidl

Does not need a huge investment, just educating farmers, but this has to be done on a nation wide scale for us to benefit from it

We just need small zones to create such things then propagate it. Pakistanis like to follow. If somebody is becoming engineer, all are becoming engineer.. if somebody is going gulf/italy, all are going to gulf/italy. I always argue that Pakistanis look for safe investment (@Bilal Khan (Quwa) ). Unless, they see it themselves they don't put foot in unknown territory.

Otherwise, everyone will promote sugarcane farming, and try to setup sugar mils. It hurts that why we don't grow corn to make chicken feed (Soybeans also), corn syrup, corn oil, corn flakes, flapjacks (including oats, barley, dried fruits) etc.

I heard China imports 80 billion $ worth of meat .. mainly from Australia and US etc. Similarly, 2 billion $ worth of cheese, and also soybeans. its hard to capture Chinese market but at least we can try.

Wagyu beef, produced in Europe was unheard of a decade ago.

We don't need high quality to start with. Simple, 2nd category HQ mangoes, beef, grapes, etc are enough. We cannot compete EU in HQ but in cost of labour. With time we can compete them with quality too.
BTW, have u ever tasted Victoria grapes (from Lidl)? it is best. Our sundar-khani has its own place, but I wish we could grow Victoria in Pakistan.

 

[Samlee]

Thanks for detailed post. I will discuss and reply this on weekend

Thanx


Now I Move Onto Agriculture.

10.The Biggest Criticism of PTI Government Is The Rising Food Prices.The Biggest Reason That Is Claimed Is The Middleman.Now What Is The Middleman.He Loans Money To Farmers and Supplies Different Essentials Like Seeds Fertilizers and Pesticides.The Farmer Has To Surrender A Portion of His Crop As Debt Settlement Which The Middleman Conveniently Sells At An Exorbitant Rate.

Now The Solution Is To Make The Government The Middleman.

Here Is How
a)State Bank Using It's Massive Cash Reserves Lends To Banks Funds At 1% Which The Banks Will Lend At
2 or 3% To Finance The Purchase Of All Desired Essentials.Banks Can Tie Up With Different Companies In This Regard.Once The Crop Is Ready Government Announces A Minimum Purchase Price.This Would Be Adjusted With The Amount Borrowed

b)Cold Storage Units Will Be Setup.Farmers Can Store Their Produce and Also Use It As Collateral.Plus Commodity Exchange Will Trade These Commodities

c)The Government Will Now Be In Possession of Substantial Commodities of Food Items Which They Can Sell At A Subsidized Rate.

d)Also There Is A Need To Setup Farmer's Markets.Where Farmers Can Directly Sell Their Produce To Consumers

e)Also We Should Encourage Farmers To Form Cooperatives So They Don't Fall Prey To Corporate Greed.A Successful Example Was Dairy Farmers in Lahore Forming A Cooperative Named Hala But It Was Stifled By PML N.Instead of Being At The Sweet Mercy of Sugar Mill Owners Why Can't Sugar Farmers Form A Cooperative and Setup Sugar Mills Themselves

11.Also Support Prices And Subsidies Should Be Conditioned On The Adaption of Latest Technologies (The Biggest Problem With Our Policy Making Is That We Give Our Policies Like Blank Cheques)Especially Drip and Sprinkler Irrigation.In A Water Stressed Country Like Ours We Cannot Afford Something As Wasteful As Flood Irrigation.We Ca Save Upto 95% Of Our Water.We Should Also Line Our Canals Since

A Few Years Back The Chief Justice Saqib Nisar Started A Dam Fund For Mohmand and Bhasha Dams.While his Heart Was In The Right Place It Was A Patently Stupid Idea.Dams Are Capital Intensive Projects.So A Better Alternative Would Have Been To Use The Money To Finance and Subsidize These Drip Irrigation Projects.Also the Rs 1 per litre surcharge on mineral bottled water recommended.This Cess Should Be Used to Finance Water Saving Technologies

12.We Have Millions of Acres of Barren Land That Can Be Brought Under Cultivation By Levelling Them.We Need Bulldozers.For This We Can Utilize A Portion of The $1 Billion Grant.3.8 Million Acres Of Barren Land Can Be Made Fertile

Punjab can turn 3.8m more acres of land fertile | The Express Tribune

Agriculture official stresses importance of bulldozers for preparing farms

tribune.com.pk

13.The Federal and Provincial Government As Well As Auqaf Own Vast Swathes of Fertile Arable Land.This Land Should Be Converted Into Pilot Zones Where New Technology Can Be Adapted and Later Disseminated

 

[Blacklight]

Lidl
We just need small zones to create such things then propagate it. Pakistanis like to follow. If somebody is becoming engineer, all are becoming engineer.. if somebody is going gulf/italy, all are going to gulf/italy. I always argue that Pakistanis look for safe investment (@Bilal Khan (Quwa) ). Unless, they see it themselves they don't put foot in unknown territory.

Risk aversion is part of human psyche, this is why we need R&D Orgs, so that cookie cutter solutions can be implemented.

I heard China imports 80 billion $ worth of meat .. mainly from Australia and US etc. Similarly, 2 billion $ worth of cheese, and also soybeans. its hard to capture Chinese market but at least we can try.

Absolutely, AND we should use our CPEC leverage to push for greater market access.

We don't need high quality to start with. Simple, 2nd category HQ mangoes, beef, grapes, etc are enough. We cannot compete EU in HQ but in cost of labour. With time we can compete them with quality too.
BTW, have u ever tasted Victoria grapes (from Lidl)? it is best. Our sundar-khani has its own place, but I wish we could grow Victoria in Pakistan.

Sometimes, HQ is just a different breed, like Wagyu beef, it is just a different breed of cows. Same goes for dairy cattle, the Holstein Friesian breed produces more milk than other breeds.

For fruits and veg, pre-pkg treatments, packaging, cold / proper storage, proper refrigerated transportation all count.

We have to do proper studies, taking into account High return mkts, and then educate our farmers.

The initiative has to be planned and implemented in such a manner that it has a broad appeal, and pushes farmers to implement change and yield.

I was going through one of @ghazi52's' excellent threads, this one was on Dates, and was happy to note, that the GoP is helping farmers export to other markets due to us boycotting india. This is the kind of initiative that is required.

 

[arjunk]

Step 1: Remove PPP from Karachi and make it an autonomous or federal territory
Step 2: Profit

 

[Blacklight]

Dearest Brother @ghazi52,

You are one of those posters, whose name when I see on my alert list, makes my heart jump with joy. It is always a pleasure to read your posts.

DO got through this thread and add what you see fit, not just off the web, but links to your past threads as well.

Thank You & Kind Regards

 

[Blacklight]

Step 1: Remove PPP from Karachi and make it an autonomous or federal territory
Step 2: Profit

That Sir, is a hornets nest, one I feel will be tackled maybe 2~5yrs down the road. It will be another Iwo Jima, unless MQM and PPP both are neutered.

 

[Goenitz]

Also There Is A Need To Setup Farmer's Markets.Where Farmers Can Directly Sell Their Produce To Consumers

Very relative point. You cannot confront Aarthi as they are deep rooted. They will get support from oppositions, besides farmers as they depend on each other. So, make some alternative markets/Sunday market/Ramzan bazar etc so that the aarthi system dies naturally.

A Successful Example Was Dairy Farmers in Lahore Forming A Cooperative Named Hala

Dr ZafarAltaf project. It bleeds my heart, what PMLN/Musharraf did to him.

All your points are true, but they should be done on pilot level. So that it can be controlled, monitored and improvised. The scale up should come later.

I always argue, that even a highly intelligent, organised, learned, etc CM cannot control an area/pop like Punjab. It is humanly impossible. So, implementation should be limited to some districts. Then it will grow itself.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Just make Karachi a separate Province and we will take Pakistan's economy to Trillion dollar.

Count Hyderabad also in. And we can also devise an alternative economic system for Pakistan as well. We have that capability and exposure.

 

[ghazi52]

The biggest problem

Huma Yusuf
The writer is a freelance journalist.

The first step is always the same: admitting you have a problem. Once the denial is overcome, the problem solving can begin. But how can you admit you have a problem when you still don’t have the right words to talk about it?

Pakistan’s big — arguably, biggest — problem is water scarcity. The country faces acute water scarcity by 2025, and will be the most water-stressed country in South Asia within two decades.

Almost 30 million Pakistanis have no access to clean water. But you may not know this because we have yet to articulate a compelling narrative about the water crisis.

One would think that the best way to spur discourse on water scarcity would be to focus on basic human rights: the right to access clean water, food and maintain hygiene. The UN recently reiterated that water shortages are affecting three billion people globally, and that billions face hunger. But in increasingly polarised, populist polities, such appeals fall on deaf ears.

Another approach could be to emphasise that Pakistan’s water crisis is in fact a failure in water management, an example of our governments’ and bureaucracy’s inability to deliver basic services.

Studies argue that Pakistan’s water scarcity can be addressed through data gathering, improved efficiency, reduced losses and improved sowing. More and better-coordinated government initiatives and subsidies, such as the drip irrigation scheme in Punjab, are needed. The 2018 National Water Policy needs a revamp, and aggressive implementation.

The issue of water scarcity needs a new narrative.

But the water management argument is best made by experts and has not caught the public imagination. For example, researcher Uzair Sattar rightly pointed out that the public commission report into the cartelisation and corruption of the sugar industry released earlier this year covered various angles — subsidies, political influence, tax evasion — but barely touched on the crucial link between sugar and water. Sugar is among the most water-intensive crops; the obsession with being a top-five sugar producer is driving the water crisis.

The national debate on malnourishment — which affects one-third of Pakistani children — also fails to make the link with water scarcity. Malnourishment is highest in Pakistan’s irrigated districts, according to academic Daanish Mustafa, where agriculturalists prioritise growing cash crops for export over domestic food security.

Water is also required for raw materials such as cotton that drive lucrative, export-oriented sectors like textiles. Run out of water, and the dream of becoming an economic powerhouse evaporates too. But we have yet to frame the issue this way. Instead, but not surprisingly, we have securitised the narrative about water scarcity.

Water scarcity has been reframed as the predecessor of food shortages, which would lead to riots and civil unrest (never mind malnutrition and hunger).

Alternatively, water scarcity is portrayed as a trigger for cross-border conflict, as if the former were somehow less devastating than the latter. The water-equals-war drum beats particularly loudly when it comes to the Indus, which flows across Pakistan, India and China, three nuclear-armed nations poised for conflict along various fault lines.

Let’s assume the only way to keep an issue such as water scarcity in the headlines and on politicians’ agendas is by securitising it; the gradual ravage of land and populations is not made for the 24/7 news cycle or the short-termism that five-year electoral cycles engender. Even then, Pakistan’s security apparatus is not taking a holistic enough approach by tackling water scarcity as a national security priority.

Recent developments such as the launch of the National Intelligence Coordination Committee suggests that threats are still narrowly conceived in the form of hostile nations, non-state actors or terrorism, espionage, and domestic dissent or insurgency. Mentions of water as a security challenge are closely tied to concerns of Indian aggression (recently fueled by Indian threats to violate the Indus Waters Treaty). In this paradigm, water flow is a mere precursor to conventional or nuclear warfare.

If Pakistan is to rally around the need to address water scarcity, it needs a new narrative. Water needs to be reframed, most importantly, as a citizen’s basic right, but also as a political priority, central to our prosperity. We need more water experts on talk shows, public-awareness campaigns, and a major focus on water conservation in our school and university curriculums.

The Pakistan Fisherfolk Forum is campaigning for the Indus River to be granted personhood, and associated rights. Many see the idea as too radical to manifest. But it indicates the desperation of those most affected by water scarcity. It might be just the new narrative we need to talk about our most pressing problem.

The writer is a freelance journalist.
Twitter: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, November 30th, 2020

 

[VCheng]

Pakistan’s big — arguably, biggest — problem is water scarcity.

Incorrect. Water scarcity is just another sign of the real problem: a rapidly and unstoppable rise in population. And no solution in sight or mind.