How Libya is a showcase in the new arms race
A few months later, Saudi Arabia, which buys the vast bulk of its arms from the United States, had concerns about quality. Unhappy about the number of GBU-10 laser-guided bombs that had failed to explode when used against Houthi rebels in Yemen, according to a dispatch from the Riyadh embassy, Saudi officials asked how the number of duds compared with the failure rate of the same weapon in Afghanistan.
In response, a visiting US general described the US Air Forces careful cradle-to-grave testing and maintenance on its bombs. Saudi officials also complained about a lack of progress in obtaining US munitions and technology for strikes in Yemen. In the same Jan. 2010 meeting, the Royal Saudi Air Force chief said that when the US sold its weaponry, it was like a car dealer selling five cars, but with only eight tyres. Saudi Arabia is crucial to US weapons makers who are discussing a huge arms package valued at over $60 billion including 84 F-15 fighter jets and 70 Apache helicopters built by Boeing.
When it comes to Libya, Paris was almost as eager to take on Gaddafi as it was to open up military ties after the EU lifted an arms embargo on the country in 2004. But France was not alone in wooing the country after Gaddafi renounced weapons of mass destruction.
In conversation with an aide to Gaddafis son Saif al-Islam in Dec. 2009, US embassy officials in Tripoli referred to an offer for purchases or refurbishment of C-130 transport planes and military exchange and training opportunities, according to a diplomatic cable from that month. The cable also mentioned a US offer to Gaddafis younger son Khamis to travel around the United States to tour US military installations. There was no indication how the conversation was followed up. Khamis, whose forces are fighting the revolt against his fathers rule, is the commander of the militarys elite 32nd brigade, seen by many analysts as the best-trained unit in Libya.
The same cable also suggested that Washington had resisted Libyan requests for MH-6 Little Bird light assault helicopters, and noted Libyan complaints about slow progress in refurbishing Vietnam-era M113 armoured personnel carriers. Lockheed Martin, manufacturer of the C-130 transporter, declined to comment. The State Department did comment for this article.
MOST UNSEEMLY
In the immediate PR battle over Libya, analysts say the Rafale appears to be winning. Not only was it handed a front-page role on the first day of the conflict, but it also scored a symbolic victory by reaching Libya equipped for air-to-ground attack, something the Typhoon has so far only done in tests. The Typhoon is focusing instead on air-to-air warfare against an enemy whose air force has been more or less pinned to the ground by strikes on radars and air defences.
French officials dismiss any suggestion of deliberate showmanship in the deployment of Rafales in the opening hours of the conflict, saying their flexibility made them right for the task of destroying tanks that were closing on rebel positions in eastern Libya. But there is no doubt the lead taken by Sarkozy signals a more confident diplomatic posture that France hopes will benefit Rafale sales indirectly. Countries buying fighters must be ready to invest in a diplomatic relationship lasting 30 or 40 years, and competitors are bracing for an all-out French sales offensive once the conflict is over, or even before.
Sarkozy has done a great job in getting the Rafale out there and hitting a convoy early on. He will go to export markets and say this is what our planes can do, said a defence executive from a rival arms producing nation.
Thats something Washington will watch closely. Despatches over many months show US efforts to track the hyperactive French president during official visits as he campaigned from Libya to Brazil, India and the United Arab Emirates, for the first foreign sale of the Rafale. US officials were so outraged by the frothiness surrounding Sarkozys two-day trip to open a French naval base in Abu Dhabi in May 2009 - a poorly planned French military manoeuvre interrupted vital fuel deliveries to Afghanistan - that the US ambassador reported the visit had brought out the most unseemly aspects of both host and visitor. The Emirati desire to be the object of unrestrained praise met its match in the French willingness to abase themselves in front of rich clients,
according to the confidential cable. French defence sources say unflattering things about US lobbying too. (
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Another potential customer the French and the Americans are fighting over is Brazil, where the Rafale was until recently seen as best-placed to beat the US-made F/A-18 and Swedens Gripen. Brazil is the focus of a fierce diplomatic contest between Sarkozy and US President Barack Obama to win an order for 36 fighter planes. Obama visited Brazils new president last month and Sarkozy is expected to follow suit.
Arms exporters typically do well at times of international instability. But they also depend on budget stability in their home country. Thats because arms importers prefer to buy from places whose own armed forces are signing up for the same weapons, guaranteeing future support and spares.
Turmoil in the Middle East emerged just as defence officials and lawmakers were gearing up to cut U.S. defence spending, which accounts for half of the worlds arms business, for the first time in a decade or more. The ferment may make it harder for American lawmakers to argue the case for immediate cuts - though it may also, analysts say, encourage them to scrutinise more closely the release of technology to loyal buyers whose governments are looking less stable.
There are probably positive impacts over the next five years on the defence industry because of what has happened in the last couple of weeks. When the US military is used as it is being used in Libya, and in an invisible humanitarian sense in Japan, it probably discourages the Congress from taking an axe to the defence budget, said Joel Johnson, analyst with Virginia-based Teal Group.
At the same time, defence industry executives and military officials say they do not expect a return to the double-digit revenue growth seen after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks - given the sheer size of the US deficit and a generally more sober approach to military requirements and programmes.
Were probably facing a flat period of US spending, Johnson said, but flat at pretty high levels. reuters
