There are only four serious contenders:
Typhoon
Rafale
SH
Gripen...
First of all, there was not a single reliable report about EF coming out first from the evaluations! Only UK and Italian reports said that, based on a dubious comment of the Indian ambassador in Italy, which has nothing to do with the evaluations. All later reports simply took that as the base and further interpreted it, but when we look at what they was able to show during the trials, it would be more than surprising if they would be anything else then average!
EF used in the trials in India was from German Luftwaffe, which neither have IRST, nor full EWS features, let alone any useful A2G capability. So all they was able to show in India, was the flight performance of the EF, especially with A2A loads!
The weapon trials were held in the UK and some reports says also in Germany, which according my German sources is more than unlikly, at least not with the EF (possibly with Tornados to demonstrate Taurus, or other weapons). UK has the only EFs that has integrated a LDP and can show some strike capabilities now. They are also integrating Paveway 4 LGBs and according to rumors Brimstone missiles, but it is more likely that Tornadors demonstrated A2G missiles.
The EF so far can carry the LDP only at the centerline station, because it is the only fighter in the competition, without a dedicated pod station (Mig 35 doesn't have it, but therefor uses and integrated system). That means it can carry only 2 x fuel tanks and 1000lb or smaller bombs, but no 2000lb PGMs at all, not to mention the missing SEAD, anti ship, or additional stand off weapons!
The EF also has no final AESA radar design yet and all they can show in this regard is the CESAR prototype, which is only the ealry base for their AESA developments. The final radar development is only pre-funded yet and the partner countries still did not decided on it, or what other tech and weapons will be integrated into EF T3A, that is on offer for MMRCA.
Conclusion:
EF for sure impressed in A2A performance and on paper (before the trials), but that's it!
The lack of commitment of the partners, in regard of weapon integration and further developments is the biggest problem and limits it to worse multi role capabilities than our upgraded Mig 29 SMT and Mirage 2000-5.
There is no way the EF was able to practically impress in the trials with multi role performance and if at all, could gave some hints on the potential of T3 (if cleared from the partners someday).
When we talk about future upgrades, we should look at the techs and weapons available first and what additional upgrades are on offer, or needed to make the fighter comparable, but are not funded yet. That gives us a real hint on which version will be more capable and how expensive the fighter will be, when they are upgraded to the same level!
Rafale ($87 millions fly away)
- HMS (tested, but never integrated)
- M88-3 / Kaveri - Snecma engine (the earlier developed as a demonstrator so far, the latter will get the M88-3 core and could be integrated as well. M88-3 requires fundings for final development and integration, Kaveri - Snecma developmend is already cleared and would need only fundings for integration)
- CFTs (developed and tested, but not integrated and not neccesarily needed for Rafale, because it already has a high range)
F18SH ($55 to 60 millions fly away)
- GE 414 EPE (an EDE demonstrator for less costs and fuel consumption was funded by the USN, the EPE instead is waiting for an international customer to fund and integrate it. Boeing and GE officials confirmed, that the USN would go for it only if an export customers pays for it!)
- Enhanced EWS features (MAWS, LWR)
- Integrated IRST (not on offer for India, because it won't be available in time for MMRCA)
- Modern cockpit design (not on offer for India, because it won't be available in time for MMRCA)
- Weapon pod for RCS reductions (not on offer for India, because it won't be available in time for MMRCA)
- CFTs, for longer range (not on offer for India, because it won't be available in time for MMRCA)
EF ($109 millions fly away)
- 2000lb LGB
- JDAM
- RBS 15
- Storm Shadow / Taurus
- CFTs ( to add fuel and free desperately needed weapon stations)
- Avionics and engine upgrades
- AESA radar (early prototypes available, but final development and integration needs fundings)
- TVC (developed, but not integrated, or neccesarily needed)
- Naval Typhoon (not developed, no orders, no other potential customer)
Conclusion
Rafale - All it needs that the others have is HMS, the TWR is already way better than of F18SH and we just need to integrate the Kaveri - Snecma engines to make it even comparable to EF, if not better! It clearly offers the most in return, for the costs, which means less upgrades needed to keep it useful in future as well!
The lack of exports so far (8 countries are considering it at the moment) means only, that the costs will be divided by less customers (Fracnce and India)
F18SH - Lowest unit costs, but apart from AESA radar, clearly on a lower tech level. Most of the features others offers, are not available in time and if the costs for these upgrades will be added, it will be much closer to Rafale price!
Moreover, the USN has it's own upgrade path and has a focus on reducing costs only (stated by Boeing officials), which leaves export customers funding increased capabilities. But Australia is using it just as a stopgap till F35 arrives and already plans with them in the EW role only, just like the USN. That means, India would be the only customer, that has a real interest to increase the capabilities during the 40 year life cycle!
EF - Clearly the costliest choice and depending on what the partners decide for T3A, it will be even more costly to bring it on a comparable level, especially to Rafale!
The naval version has no future at all and would remain completely on Indian fundings.
Future upgrades of the AF version instead will be cheaper, because of more partners and export customers so far, but that doesn't equal the high costs and lack of capabilities now.