Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[#hydra#]

LIKE I TOLD YOU GUYS 18 MONTHS AGO INDIA CANT AFFORD BOTH RAFALE & FGFA

SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE

$20 BN is a BS figure. The actual figure is around $15-16 BN (50% of which will be ploughed back into India) and the orginal deal had been valued at $12 BN.


The MMRCA is about a LOT more than the planes, it will transform the Indian aviation industry, buying 250 Su-34s won't offer the same benfits to India and will only hurt the IAF.

$20 BN is a BS figure. The actual figure is around $15-16 BN (50% of which will be ploughed back into India) and the orginal deal had been valued at $12 BN.


The MMRCA is about a LOT more than the planes, it will transform the Indian aviation industry, buying 250 Su-34s won't offer the same benfits to India and will only hurt the IAF.


Based on what?? India is going to spend $620 billion on defence between 2014 and 2022 (50% of this will be CAPEX), money is not an issue.

But this costly technology may not be having the edge in next decade over PLAAF,and French will definitely going to charge us heavily for the future and inevitable midlife upgrades for rafale. The mirage saga is a very good example which will not be the case with Russians.

 

[Abingdonboy]

$620B?? WOW, that is incredible. 2014 is already gone. Budget of 2015-16 is announced. So, for like 6 years India would be spending avg $100B per year?

Check the figures which Ajai Shukla provided in this image. Total capex for Army, IAF, Navy work out to be $22B (1$ = 62 Rs) in year 2021-22. If Ajai Shukla did some severe stupidity and even If I double the amount, it would be just like $44B.

Abingdon.

Your figures are outrageous of 609.billion .

India is a poor developing country

Rafale is too costly this is the sole issue now.

We are flying cheap rusty obsekete migs

Get realistic

Money is a massive issue for every nation even the rich western countries.

So do t tell us money is no issue

Indians are running scared. Of the totalaacquisition and life cycle cost of thus hyper expensive yet brilliant fighter

And yes I repeat I predicted this issue before any one else on this entire forum

$620 billion includes Opex and Capex:

India’s defence spend may hit $620 billion in FY14-22.



India's economy is now entering another high-growth phase with a sustained period of above 8% growth looking likely, by 2022 India's defence budget will be touching $100 billion an annum. Deals like the Rafale and FGFA will take up but a fraction of this defence budget.

 

[sancho]

how do you think this TOT will help our industry? Can we implement the manufacturing process we learn while making them here at HAL in to our own projects like tejas?
For ex I read in some article that we manually create Carbon Fiber Composites parts for tejas, while french don't. So can we learn that and implement that into tejas project in furure?

what are the critical technologies we wish to acquire in this deal? I don't think they will share engine tech?

In some point of time in future will we able to manufacture the whole aircraft from raw material?

Modernise our manufacturing process is one part, although I don't think it's needed in the case of the composite materials, since the estimated time to produce a Rafale is pretty close to what Dassault does at the moment in France, with a far more automated process. But overall, learning and implementing this know how into our industry is the key and by far not limited to HAL, it's aimed to spread it over as much Indian companies as possible, to widen the capabilities. Reliance if we like it or not, will be a major player after a Rafale deal, Samtel will benefit hugely wrt optronics, BEL gets the know how of AESA radar systems and EW parts and as halloween stated, much of the M88 engine production will be spread over several Indian subcontractors too, with the end production at HAL.

Critical techs that will be shared are, AESA radar, engine and optronics, not sure how much of the EW will be shared.

Wrt benefits to LCA, sadly DRDO is looking at it as a seperate development, rather than benefitting from joint techs and spare supply. So the benefits for LCA will be limited, while future projects like FGFA or AMCA should gain more.

why has Rafale deal increased from 10 bil to 20 bil ?
Have the size of the kickbacks rocketed ? Or the french being greedy ?

It never was at $10 billion, that were only media estimates, based on the initial MRCA tender, the MMRCA was always costlier, but there is no official statement on the cost / budget.

 

[Storm Force]

I see iaf mmrca saga rumbling on.

I see tejas mk1 entering at a snail's pace until 2020 for forty planes.

I see mk2,coming in 2022.

I see mki service levels dropping

And I see indecision and red tape leaving iaf at the mercy of both Pakistan abd China

 

[Superboy]

I see tejas mk1 entering at a snail's pace until 2020 for forty planes.

This is too optimistic IMO. SP-2 will take a long time to deliver IMO.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I see iaf mmrca saga rumbling on.

One way or another the MMRCA deal ends this year either it is signed or cancelled.

I see tejas mk1 entering at a snail's pace until 2020 for forty planes.

Within 3 years the Mk.1 will be being churned out at 16/year, the latest news is the IAF has insisted on 16/year by next year.

I see mki service levels dropping

A direct contradiction to what the DM has publically stated.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Dassault Rafale offer to Malaysia update
Dassault offers Malaysia 10-yr bank loan to fund Rafale purchase
Jon Grevatt, Bangkok - IHS Jane's Defence Industry
18 March 2015

France's Dassault Aviation has offered Malaysia a 10-year bank loan to support a purchase of the company's Rafale fighter jet, Malaysian state news agency Bernama reported on 18 March.

Citing Dassault's chief executive officer Eric Tappier, Bernama reported that the package is similar to the one offered to Egypt, which in February ordered 24 Rafale fighters for a reported EUR5 billion (USD5.7 billion).

Tappier, who was speaking at the LIMA 2015 exhibition in Langkawi, said the repayment package offered to Malaysia features a 10-year loan provided by an unspecified French commercial bank and guaranteed by the government of France.

Dassault is offering the Rafale to meet the Royal Malaysian Air Force's (RMAF's) severely delayed programme to procure a Multirole Combat Aircraft (MRCA).

Dassault offers Malaysia 10-yr bank loan to fund Rafale purchase - IHS Jane's 360

 

[wiseone2]

Dassault Rafale offer to Malaysia update
Dassault offers Malaysia 10-yr bank loan to fund Rafale purchase
Jon Grevatt, Bangkok - IHS Jane's Defence Industry
18 March 2015

France's Dassault Aviation has offered Malaysia a 10-year bank loan to support a purchase of the company's Rafale fighter jet, Malaysian state news agency Bernama reported on 18 March.

Citing Dassault's chief executive officer Eric Tappier, Bernama reported that the package is similar to the one offered to Egypt, which in February ordered 24 Rafale fighters for a reported EUR5 billion (USD5.7 billion).

Tappier, who was speaking at the LIMA 2015 exhibition in Langkawi, said the repayment package offered to Malaysia features a 10-year loan provided by an unspecified French commercial bank and guaranteed by the government of France.

Dassault is offering the Rafale to meet the Royal Malaysian Air Force's (RMAF's) severely delayed programme to procure a Multirole Combat Aircraft (MRCA).

Dassault offers Malaysia 10-yr bank loan to fund Rafale purchase - IHS Jane's 360

24 aircraft for $5.7 billion. Wow !!!

 

[Corsair]

24 aircraft for $5.7 billion. Wow !!!

A FREMM frigate was sold with the package.

 

[K M Cariappa]

A FREMM frigate was sold with the package, learn before you talk !

You don't need to act in such a hostile manner.
He clearly stated the facts as were presented to him by the article for which you really don't need to behave in such a childish manner.

 

[Corsair]

You don't need to act in such a hostile manner.
He clearly stated the facts as were presented to him by the article for which you really don't need to behave in such a childish manner.

I didn't mean sounding rude to wiseone, rather to the article - I am sorry about that.
I toned down my post.

 

[Abingdonboy]

rumours

Do elaborate sir....

 

[SQ8]

I see iaf mmrca saga rumbling on.

I see tejas mk1 entering at a snail's pace until 2020 for forty planes.

I see mk2,coming in 2022.

I see mki service levels dropping

And I see indecision and red tape leaving iaf at the mercy of both Pakistan abd China

I see no understanding of anything related to defence whatsoever.

New Delhi: Negotiation is taking place for procurement of medium multi-role combat aircraft from Dassault Aviation France but "no final decision" has been taken, the government informed the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.

"Abay chahte kya ho Saalon" An anonymous IAF pilot.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The Egyptian deal involves 3 components - 24 rafales, 1 Fremm frigate and weaponery like MBDA air-to-air missiles

A French Senate report said the average unit price of a 6,000-ton FREMM is €605 million, excluding development cost, using 2013 prices. Whereas another source says, French newspaper La Tribune reported in January 2015 that France had offered two DCNS FREMM multi-mission frigates worth 1.8 billion euros and and 20 Dassault Rafales worth 3.6 billion euros.

If we consider Fremm price to be $ 1Bn and weapons package for jets and frigate to be close to $2 -2.2 Bn (thales CEO says thales portion itslef is close to Euro 1Bn) so what is left is between a ball parked figure of = $2.7Bn - $2.9Bn.

Assuming the financial charges and commission for the bank loans for 10 years to be around $ 300-500 Mn then the left over figure is $2.2 Bn - $2.4 Bn and $2.4Bn - $2.6 Bn == $2.2 - 2.6 Bn

Implying each jet is around $ 92Mn - $108 Mn

One source says On the Rafale, the total program cost is €45.9 billion, excluding the development cost, with a unit price of €74 million for the B twin-seater, €68.8 million the C single-seater, and €79 million for the M naval version, based on 2013 prices, a French Senate report said.

Egypt Seeks Bank Loans for French Arms Buy

Mind you the Euro 68.8 Mn translates to approx $ 89 Mn (Euro/Dollar was around 1.3 in 2013). Thus my ball park figure estimate is almost in line. Only difference would be that Egypt Rafale would be F3R versus 2013 figures of F3. (F3R from 2018 onwards so part fleet perhaps in F3 and part F3R with upgrades later as part of MLU)

BTW if i assume TOT cost and scale for a larger deal the price of $90-110 holds good with perhaps a deal size of $ 11.8-13.8 Bn in the lower side for MMRCA 126 birds. If LCC cost is high (as i still dont know how its calculated within IAF and MOD) then it may balloon to higher figure.

 

[migflug]

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar informed Parliamentarians recently that ” “The ball is in France’s court, and Dassault have to confirm if they agree to our terms since India will Stick to RFP Clauses and have refused to compromise on terms and conditions .

While Indian Air force repeatedly has told Ministry of Defence and Defense minister that they have “No Plan B ” if MMRCA deal collapses, without Such backup plans given by IAF, Parrikar is already working on his own Plan B according to officials.

Parrikar wants to get FGFA ahead of schedule and wants an early agreement with Russians on this , India and Russia are working together to draft Final contract so that work can start on FGFA and India might also agree to buy first lot of Pak-Fa Single seater Russian variant if MMRCA deal is not finalised .

While IAF is not in favour of additional Sukhoi-30 over Rafale, Parrikar is left with two choice said Defence expert Vinayak Shetty, One is to open Second Production line for Tejas MK-II 2020 onwards so that at least 24 aircrafts are produced each year, IAF is also in favour of Second production line for Tejas MK-II which can produce 8 aircrafts from second line so that 24 aircrafts can be produced each year , but IAF is not able to convince Private players for second production line since IAF still cannot commit orders for Second production line .

if we are looking at replacing Migs in 1 to 1 ratio then IAF will require close to 400 MK-II aircrafts said Vinayak Shetty, even with two production line it will take a decade just to produce 240 aircrafts, then there is always chance that technology will be outdated midway in production, IAF have to put final figure for MK-II or commit higher aircrafts for second production line with scope for developing MK-3 variants.

Second option which Parrikar has already talked about is to increase orders for Su-30 which is already produced in India with ” Super 30 upgrade package ” so that IAF too is on-board such arrangement which will provide improvements in Avionics and radar to keep technology and aircraft relevant for next few decades to come till FGFA takes over in numbers