Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[PARIKRAMA]

The offer for something other than Rafale for these would be terribly difficult to justify fiscally, given all the new one time costs yet again for another platform.

Anyway keeping options open only helps India in the long run for the next negotiation whenever it commences (probably after 2019 election).

Enough breathing room has been acquired in the mean time with this interim method.

That would be a wrong assumption bro, assuming the MII line approval is given in march 2017 or max by Dec 2017, the line setup itself will take 3 years so consumption of time puts us in 2021. Again kit based assembly will require at least say 15-18 months for initial low production rate so 2022+ timeline for first MII rafale to roll out.

If we take a call post 2019 elections or 2020, line finishes by 2024 and first plane comes out at 2026 kind of timeline right when FGFA is also available at low production rate from HAL line.
Fiscally it will be impossible to maintain a cost of $200Mn 5th gen fighter along with say a $85 Mn fighter together at one go. In other words, it will be prudent if we space out Rafale MII and FGFA MII production by at least 5 years to have some breathing space. Anyways HAL time is not considered at all for this equation..


Also consider the squadron strength dipping below 30 uptill that point of time with this plan

 

[Abingdonboy]

Posted at: Sep 25, 2016, 12:57 AM; last updated: Sep 25, 2016, 2:48 PM (IST)
Rafale to widen arch of operations
MoD working on multiple options, next 5-6 yrs crucial for Air Force to induct technology

The first of the Rafales will start coming in by September 2019 and the full fleet shall be operational by April 2022. File photo

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 24

Equipped with the latest missiles which widen the arch of offensive operations, the Rafale fighter will be a potential game-changer for India’s airborne capability on several fronts.
India has signed a contract with France to buy 36 such jets at a cost of Rs 58,828 crore, a huge sum but modern technology does not come cheap.

Chiefly the Rafale will provide: dependability of having the very latest technology-backed air-strike platform; ability to hit enemy targets which are further away due to its flight radius of some 1,000 km; be available for five sorties per day instead of three of the Sukhoi 30 MKI; a new set of onboard radars to help pilots navigate and also strike; a new set of missiles that hit targets further away; and infusion of new technology in the Indian Air Force that is presently operating at its lowest level of fighter jets in the past decade.

The Rafale will bridge the shortfall of the fast-dwindling fighter squadrons. India needs 45 fighter squadrons to counter a combined threat from Pakistan and China. Currently, it has only 33, where each squadron has 18-20 jets. Of these, the vintage MiG-21 and MiG-27 form 11 squadrons. The Sukhoi 30-MKI populates 10 squadrons, the 1970s design British Jaguar six, followed by French Mirage 2000 and Soviet Union’s MiG-29 in two and three squadrons, respectively. The last three are being upgraded with better missiles and avionics.

Rafale will be in some ways be superior to what the Chinese presently have in their arsenal, but Beijing is producing its own platforms and weapons and with the next generation J-20 fighter jet getting established, India will need to carry forward its plans rapidly and catch up with Beijing over the next five-six years by widening its ‘make in India’ footprint.

The first of the Rafales will start coming in by September 2019 and the full fleet shall be operational by April 2022. In the intervening period, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) led by Manohar Parrikar, needs to focus on a multi-pronged approach to meet future needs. The Rafale deal was negotiated for 18 months – ‘lightning fast’ going by MoD’s record.

As the good news filters in, the MoD is already working on multiple options – at least four of which are known – to bridge the technology gap of the IAF and add newer planes.

1. The first is to quickly induct the 106 Tejas “Mark-1A”. The MoD has set a 2018 deadline for the first aircraft to be ready with a target to complete its production by 2022-23.
2. The second is to have an additional assembly line of Indian-made fighter jets. This could be a joint venture with a US or European company setting up a plant in collaboration with an Indian partner.
3. The third is completion of the production schedule of 272 of the Sukhoi 30-MKI, expected by 2020.
4. The fourth is to ink an agreement with Russia to co-develop and produce a fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) with stealth features and the works.

The Sukhois were ordered in phases since 1997, the IAF wants 272 of these in its fleet by 2020. The agreement for the FGFA is expected to be inked when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet next month.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rafale-to-widen-arch-of-operations/300365.html
+++
Comments

I have said this before
View attachment 338016
https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.230070/page-351#post-8704512

If the article above is correct, then point 2
The second is to have an additional assembly line of Indian-made fighter jets. This could be a joint venture with a US or European company setting up a plant in collaboration with an Indian partner
Seems to suggest a straight shootout situation as

• F18SH vs Rafale ( USA vs European)
• F16 vs Rafale vs Gripen (USA vs European)

Interesting to note, first option of F18 is not accepted by IAF as of now
Second option is basically a LWF Single engine vs twin Engine MWF/DPSA

In both sense logic, rationality and the MII investments couple with Eric Trappier words indicate the choice is Rafale.

Yet i would love to see rationale of using either other american options (F16/F18) or Gripen instead of Rafale. This brings us to the important second part of the equation.
In my observation for Rafale M and interaction with vstol, we discussed the following


View attachment 338021

View attachment 338022

View attachment 338023
IF what you read above is basically the scope of IN order and its basically much sooner in the horizon owing to inadequate fleet for the carriers.

This opens up the scope of debate further, bcz these orders may be again from Merignac only unless the first MII order is Rafale M (highly unlikely). We know surely the F16/F18/Gripen E are not qualified for STOBAR config ACC.

On top, if supposing say 3 squadrons of 16 aircraft and 6 twin seater are ordered thats 54 odd Rafale Ms. Bascially 90 aircrafts from Merignac Line. Unless of course we order 45 Mig29Ks between now and 2017.

This makes me wonder, why is mainstream media still believing that a US jet or may be another European jet actually is running for a MII line, the likes of LM, Boeing and Saab....

Again all as per the report which does not mention a second LWF which i believe is a possibility if LCA Mk2 is shelved or delayed or the foreign aircraft /LSA is rechristened as LCA Mk2 with some basic changes.


@Abingdonboy @anant_s @Picdelamirand-oil @Vergennes @Taygibay @R!CK @Armani @GuardianRED @surya kiran @Ankit Kumar 002 @Nilgiri @hellfire @Spectre @randomradio @litefire @dadeechi @[Bregs] @BON PLAN @CNL-PN-AA @Skull and Bones @MilSpec @SpArK

By any chance Am I missing something here?

There is ZERO chance of another foreign fighter outside of the Rafale being made in India at this point. Let me say that again.....ZERO.

Which foreign fighter is the ONLY one to :

1) have won the IAF's MMRCA competition and be declared L1?
2) Have a carrier version (ready and in service) able take off from STOBAR and CATOBAR carriers?
3) Has clearance from their respective Govt for the very LATEST standard to be sold to India and ToT to be transferred?
4) has actually now been ordered by the IAF?
5) has been under talks from their OEM to be made in India and is actually being taken seriously?
6) has a Govt-Govt IGA signed regarding its sale to India?


There is literally only one viable candidate at this point.


Sorry @PARIKRAMA bro, there isn't going to be a foreign LWF, the LCA Mk-1A is going to satisfy the IAF the only issues are on the production side and here this GoI is fully prepared to go the extra mile to address the issues as they arise. Furthermore the IN is heavily investing in the LCA MK.2, it will prove to be far more financially and logistically simple for the IAF to follow suit (and thus there will be a high high level of commonality between the IAF and IN; Rafale/Rafale M, MiG-29UPG/MiG-29K, LCA/N-LCA).

The only people taking a second MMRCA seriously now are the paid media or those entirely ignorant of such matters.

The offer for something other than Rafale for these would be terribly difficult to justify fiscally, given all the new one time costs yet again for another platform.

Anyway keeping options open only helps India in the long run for the next negotiation whenever it commences (probably after 2019 election).

Enough breathing room has been acquired in the mean time with this interim method.

Sorry bro but the IAF and IN do not have the luxury of waiting. The current off the shelf deal only amounts to 2 SQNs worth of a/c, for a good few years the IAF has been retiring 1+ SQN(s) a year and from 2019-20 the s**t is really going to hit the fan as the MiG-21 Bisons, remaining MiG-27s and DARIN II Jaguars are phased out. Furthermore by 2024 the IAF will have 3 aircraft carriers (a second Vikrant class is a certainty at this point) requiring a total of 7-8 SQNs (plus reserves) to support them but as of today the IN has a sum total of 2 in service/on order and there is no indication more MiG-29Ks are of interest to the IN. They will be requiring Rafale Ms themselves.

If one waits until after the 2019 elections then that means the deal will likely only be clinched in March 2020 and as @PARIKRAMA has rightly pointed out this comes far too close to the FGFA's projected production output.

It really is a case of now or never.

Any deal with US in MII specifically for a fighter aircraft is going to be sure shot pain in future so better to concentrate onh Rafale MII(both for IN and IAF), signing of FGFA deal at earliest, Super sukhois upgrades and fattier n timely induction of tejas at least now. Gripen wont bring in any thing strategic to us

The biggest joke, As I'm sure @PARIKRAMA will agree, is having known what was offered to India (the Rafale F3++ standard) Boeing had the audacity to offer the ASH to India in an effort to match Dassualt but this offer was made without USG approval. As a result the Boeing pitch is entirely null and void, the US won't clear that product to be made in India (not that any form of critical ToT is even remotely on the table).

So much for the new "strategic partnership" between India and the US. To see the reality just see what the US has offered to under under DTTI; Co-production of a mini hand-held UAV (Raven), co-development of new generation CBRN resistant military uniforms and a few other bits and pieces. When it comes to the US the devil is always in the detail.

Meanwhile India has just signed a deal for Rafales in France that are explicitly nuclear weapon delivery platforms.

 

[Nilgiri]

If one waits until after the 2019 elections then that means the deal will likely only be clinched in March 2020 and as @PARIKRAMA has rightly pointed out this comes far too close to the FGFA's projected production output.

Deliveries of these 36 only start from 2019 onwards. If they were going to be inducted quicker, then I see an earlier MII for 90+ more also being announced sooner possibly. But the way I see it, its going to be a term 2 issue (which is why Parrikar said what he said)...and they have consulted with the IAF as to what the contingencies for using MKI in more workload assignments in the interim period when IAF faces its largest squadron crunch. You are not going to get 1:1 optimisation for a long time, but you can thank UPA for that (for being under 3 trillion USD economy in nominal terms, dragging this out way longer than it should have and also not grabbing the M2000 production line when the opportunity presented itself).

But if something happens anyway in the very near future regarding Rafale MII, I will be very happy. I just don't expect it from what I see. That's all.

 

[GuardianRED]

Posted at: Sep 25, 2016, 12:57 AM; last updated: Sep 25, 2016, 2:48 PM (IST)
Rafale to widen arch of operations
MoD working on multiple options, next 5-6 yrs crucial for Air Force to induct technology

The first of the Rafales will start coming in by September 2019 and the full fleet shall be operational by April 2022. File photo

Ajay Banerjee

Tribune News Service

New Delhi, September 24

Equipped with the latest missiles which widen the arch of offensive operations, the Rafale fighter will be a potential game-changer for India’s airborne capability on several fronts.
India has signed a contract with France to buy 36 such jets at a cost of Rs 58,828 crore, a huge sum but modern technology does not come cheap.

Chiefly the Rafale will provide: dependability of having the very latest technology-backed air-strike platform; ability to hit enemy targets which are further away due to its flight radius of some 1,000 km; be available for five sorties per day instead of three of the Sukhoi 30 MKI; a new set of onboard radars to help pilots navigate and also strike; a new set of missiles that hit targets further away; and infusion of new technology in the Indian Air Force that is presently operating at its lowest level of fighter jets in the past decade.

The Rafale will bridge the shortfall of the fast-dwindling fighter squadrons. India needs 45 fighter squadrons to counter a combined threat from Pakistan and China. Currently, it has only 33, where each squadron has 18-20 jets. Of these, the vintage MiG-21 and MiG-27 form 11 squadrons. The Sukhoi 30-MKI populates 10 squadrons, the 1970s design British Jaguar six, followed by French Mirage 2000 and Soviet Union’s MiG-29 in two and three squadrons, respectively. The last three are being upgraded with better missiles and avionics.

Rafale will be in some ways be superior to what the Chinese presently have in their arsenal, but Beijing is producing its own platforms and weapons and with the next generation J-20 fighter jet getting established, India will need to carry forward its plans rapidly and catch up with Beijing over the next five-six years by widening its ‘make in India’ footprint.

The first of the Rafales will start coming in by September 2019 and the full fleet shall be operational by April 2022. In the intervening period, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) led by Manohar Parrikar, needs to focus on a multi-pronged approach to meet future needs. The Rafale deal was negotiated for 18 months – ‘lightning fast’ going by MoD’s record.

As the good news filters in, the MoD is already working on multiple options – at least four of which are known – to bridge the technology gap of the IAF and add newer planes.

1. The first is to quickly induct the 106 Tejas “Mark-1A”. The MoD has set a 2018 deadline for the first aircraft to be ready with a target to complete its production by 2022-23.
2. The second is to have an additional assembly line of Indian-made fighter jets. This could be a joint venture with a US or European company setting up a plant in collaboration with an Indian partner.
3. The third is completion of the production schedule of 272 of the Sukhoi 30-MKI, expected by 2020.
4. The fourth is to ink an agreement with Russia to co-develop and produce a fifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) with stealth features and the works.

The Sukhois were ordered in phases since 1997, the IAF wants 272 of these in its fleet by 2020. The agreement for the FGFA is expected to be inked when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet next month.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/rafale-to-widen-arch-of-operations/300365.html
+++
Comments

I have said this before
View attachment 338016
https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.230070/page-351#post-8704512

If the article above is correct, then point 2
The second is to have an additional assembly line of Indian-made fighter jets. This could be a joint venture with a US or European company setting up a plant in collaboration with an Indian partner
Seems to suggest a straight shootout situation as

• F18SH vs Rafale ( USA vs European)
• F16 vs Rafale vs Gripen (USA vs European)

Interesting to note, first option of F18 is not accepted by IAF as of now
Second option is basically a LWF Single engine vs twin Engine MWF/DPSA

In both sense logic, rationality and the MII investments couple with Eric Trappier words indicate the choice is Rafale.

Yet i would love to see rationale of using either other american options (F16/F18) or Gripen instead of Rafale. This brings us to the important second part of the equation.
In my observation for Rafale M and interaction with vstol, we discussed the following


View attachment 338021

View attachment 338022

View attachment 338023
IF what you read above is basically the scope of IN order and its basically much sooner in the horizon owing to inadequate fleet for the carriers.

This opens up the scope of debate further, bcz these orders may be again from Merignac only unless the first MII order is Rafale M (highly unlikely). We know surely the F16/F18/Gripen E are not qualified for STOBAR config ACC.

On top, if supposing say 3 squadrons of 16 aircraft and 6 twin seater are ordered thats 54 odd Rafale Ms. Bascially 90 aircrafts from Merignac Line. Unless of course we order 45 Mig29Ks between now and 2017.

This makes me wonder, why is mainstream media still believing that a US jet or may be another European jet actually is running for a MII line, the likes of LM, Boeing and Saab....

Again all as per the report which does not mention a second LWF which i believe is a possibility if LCA Mk2 is shelved or delayed or the foreign aircraft /LSA is rechristened as LCA Mk2 with some basic changes.


@Abingdonboy @anant_s @Picdelamirand-oil @Vergennes @Taygibay @R!CK @Armani @GuardianRED @surya kiran @Ankit Kumar 002 @Nilgiri @hellfire @Spectre @randomradio @litefire @dadeechi @[Bregs] @BON PLAN @CNL-PN-AA @Skull and Bones @MilSpec @SpArK

By any chance Am I missing something here?

There is ZERO chance of another foreign fighter outside of the Rafale being made in India at this point. Let me say that again.....ZERO.

Which foreign fighter is the ONLY one to :

1) have won the IAF's MMRCA competition and be declared L1?
2) Have a carrier version (ready and in service) able take off from STOBAR and CATOBAR carriers?
3) Has clearance from their respective Govt for the very LATEST standard to be sold to India and ToT to be transferred?
4) has actually now been ordered by the IAF?
5) has been under talks from their OEM to be made in India and is actually being taken seriously?
6) has a Govt-Govt IGA signed regarding its sale to India?


There is literally only one viable candidate at this point.


Sorry @PARIKRAMA bro, there isn't going to be a foreign LWF, the LCA Mk-1A is going to satisfy the IAF the only issues are on the production side and here this GoI is fully prepared to go the extra mile to address the issues as they arise. Furthermore the IN is heavily investing in the LCA MK.2, it will prove to be far more financially and logistically simple for the IAF to follow suit (and thus there will be a high high level of commonality between the IAF and IN; Rafale/Rafale M, MiG-29UPG/MiG-29K, LCA/N-LCA).

The only people taking a second MMRCA seriously now are the paid media or those entirely ignorant of such matters.


Sorry bro but the IAF and IN do not have the luxury of waiting. The current off the shelf deal only amounts to 2 SQNs worth of a/c, for a good few years the IAF has been retiring 1+ SQN(s) a year and from 2019-20 the s**t is really going to hit the fan as the MiG-21 Bisons, remaining MiG-27s and DARIN II Jaguars are phased out. Furthermore by 2024 the IAF will have 3 aircraft carriers (a second Vikrant class is a certainty at this point) requiring a total of 7-8 SQNs (plus reserves) to support them but as of today the IN has a sum total of 2 in service/on order and there is no indication more MiG-29Ks are of interest to the IN. They will be requiring Rafale Ms themselves.

If one waits until after the 2019 elections then that means the deal will likely only be clinched in March 2020 and as @PARIKRAMA has rightly pointed out this comes far too close to the FGFA's projected production output.

It really is a case of now or never.


The biggest joke, As I'm sure @PARIKRAMA will agree, is having known what was offered to India (the Rafale F3++ standard) Boeing had the audacity to offer the ASH to India in an effort to match Dassualt but this offer was made without USG approval. As a result the Boeing pitch is entirely null and void, the US won't clear that product to be made in India (not that any form of critical ToT is even remotely on the table).

So much for the new "strategic partnership" between India and the US. To see the reality just see what the US has offered to under under DTTI; Co-production of a mini hand-held UAV (Raven), co-development of new generation CBRN resistant military uniforms and a few other bits and pieces. When it comes to the US the devil is always in the detail.

Meanwhile India has just signed a deal for Rafales in France that are explicitly nuclear weapon delivery platforms.

Excellent Write up guys (positive rating for these two gentlemen)

Totally Agree with you, any military planning with avg intelligence can also it that a second LWF line will be a "ludicous" or a bad idea in the history of bad ideas.

But unfortunately, we are seeing reports, counter-reports, articles , interviews from our favours defence journos that it has filled the entire news space, that people have started to believe that nonsense.

Stick to the Rafale and its variants, meet the deadlines and agreements , have no unnecessary delays. Support and improve the Tejas and NLCA and its variants.

KEEP IT SIMPLE PEOPLE!

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The biggest joke, As I'm sure @PARIKRAMA will agree, is having known what was offered to India (the Rafale F3++ standard) Boeing had the audacity to offer the ASH to India in an effort to match Dassualt but this offer was made without USG approval. As a result the Boeing pitch is entirely null and void, the US won't clear that product to be made in India (not that any form of critical ToT is even remotely on the table).

So much for the new "strategic partnership" between India and the US. To see the reality just see what the US has offered to under under DTTI; Co-production of a mini hand-held UAV (Raven), co-development of new generation CBRN resistant military uniforms and a few other bits and pieces. When it comes to the US the devil is always in the detail.

Meanwhile India has just signed a deal for Rafales in France that are explicitly nuclear weapon delivery platforms.

Would you hear the bigger joke. - ASH clearance is withdrawn. Boeing themselves withdrew it as they felt it will be not cleared even if the Boeing is 100% directly control the Indian Line. So basically its SH only. So no more IWB stuff. No more stealth future talks.. and SH is inferior to Rafale. On top No one had taken clearance from Senate.

The present USG and the Senate is already preparing for the transition stage . In no manner the most of the biggest bills and deals will get approved. Nor we can expect a new POTUS to sign and clear a new fighter jet deal with India within 6 months of becoming the prez. In simple words, we can safely assume that if DM MP sticks to march 2017 timeline, its virtually impossible to get approvals in place inspite of best known assurances...

If people really talk about Engine GE414 thing then F16 does not give it to us its F18SH or a Gripen E. Now we knwo for sure if USG is actually keen to give us the Jet engine tech or its another carrot being dangled.

Last time , the Dassault group planned an MII line was with Reliance Mukesh group for Wings production and other component manufacturing. The assembly was suppose to be based out of Bangalore and cost of setup as part of DA investment was approx $220 Mn and Indian exchange Rs 1500 Crores approx. So an assembly line i suppose even if i take into consideration some more amount also, its at best an investment of not more than $300 Mn from DA side as on today with almost Rs 2000 Crores kind o figure. Its very much possible that this is easily covered by Reliance Defence Anil Ambani group and withThales JV with Samtel and BEL roped in along with Safran GTRE aspect and some more minor players in supply chain all as part of a consortium, the MII line can be up and running much quicker then earlier expectation.

Strangely the media is never able to fins such simple news. I wonder why...

 

[Nilgiri]

That would be a wrong assumption bro, assuming the MII line approval is given in march 2017 or max by Dec 2017, the line setup itself will take 3 years so consumption of time puts us in 2021. Again kit based assembly will require at least say 15-18 months for initial low production rate so 2022+ timeline for first MII rafale to roll out.

If we take a call post 2019 elections or 2020, line finishes by 2024 and first plane comes out at 2026 kind of timeline right when FGFA is also available at low production rate from HAL line.
Fiscally it will be impossible to maintain a cost of $200Mn 5th gen fighter along with say a $85 Mn fighter together at one go. In other words, it will be prudent if we space out Rafale MII and FGFA MII production by at least 5 years to have some breathing space. Anyways HAL time is not considered at all for this equation..


Also consider the squadron strength dipping below 30 uptill that point of time with this plan

OK so you are confident for 2017. Lets hope you are right. I will wait and see.

 

[GuardianRED]

There is ZERO chance of another foreign fighter outside of the Rafale being made in India at this point. Let me say that again.....ZERO.

Which foreign fighter is the ONLY one to :

1) have won the IAF's MMRCA competition and be declared L1?
2) Have a carrier version (ready and in service) able take off from STOBAR and CATOBAR carriers?
3) Has clearance from their respective Govt for the very LATEST standard to be sold to India and ToT to be transferred?
4) has actually now been ordered by the IAF?
5) has been under talks from their OEM to be made in India and is actually being taken seriously?
6) has a Govt-Govt IGA signed regarding its sale to India?


There is literally only one viable candidate at this point.


Sorry @PARIKRAMA bro, there isn't going to be a foreign LWF, the LCA Mk-1A is going to satisfy the IAF the only issues are on the production side and here this GoI is fully prepared to go the extra mile to address the issues as they arise. Furthermore the IN is heavily investing in the LCA MK.2, it will prove to be far more financially and logistically simple for the IAF to follow suit (and thus there will be a high high level of commonality between the IAF and IN; Rafale/Rafale M, MiG-29UPG/MiG-29K, LCA/N-LCA).

The only people taking a second MMRCA seriously now are the paid media or those entirely ignorant of such matters.


Sorry bro but the IAF and IN do not have the luxury of waiting. The current off the shelf deal only amounts to 2 SQNs worth of a/c, for a good few years the IAF has been retiring 1+ SQN(s) a year and from 2019-20 the s**t is really going to hit the fan as the MiG-21 Bisons, remaining MiG-27s and DARIN II Jaguars are phased out. Furthermore by 2024 the IAF will have 3 aircraft carriers (a second Vikrant class is a certainty at this point) requiring a total of 7-8 SQNs (plus reserves) to support them but as of today the IN has a sum total of 2 in service/on order and there is no indication more MiG-29Ks are of interest to the IN. They will be requiring Rafale Ms themselves.

If one waits until after the 2019 elections then that means the deal will likely only be clinched in March 2020 and as @PARIKRAMA has rightly pointed out this comes far too close to the FGFA's projected production output.

It really is a case of now or never.


The biggest joke, As I'm sure @PARIKRAMA will agree, is having known what was offered to India (the Rafale F3++ standard) Boeing had the audacity to offer the ASH to India in an effort to match Dassualt but this offer was made without USG approval. As a result the Boeing pitch is entirely null and void, the US won't clear that product to be made in India (not that any form of critical ToT is even remotely on the table).

So much for the new "strategic partnership" between India and the US. To see the reality just see what the US has offered to under under DTTI; Co-production of a mini hand-held UAV (Raven), co-development of new generation CBRN resistant military uniforms and a few other bits and pieces. When it comes to the US the devil is always in the detail.

Meanwhile India has just signed a deal for Rafales in France that are explicitly nuclear weapon delivery platforms.

Simple Curiosity : Why do you think the DARINII Jags would be phased out? These frames are to upgraded to DARINIII and Hopefully new engines yes?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

OK so you are confident for 2017. Lets hope you are right. I will wait and see.

LOL, Not really Bro, if this approval is to be given in this NDA 1 term, i believe the following timeline may be best applicable

https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.230070/page-346#post-8697166

If its shifted to NDA-2 as you say, then it can be even much later. But yes NDA1- anything between Mar2017 to Aug 2018.

If its Indian Standard Time, add 8-10 years to march 2017 so anywhere between March 2025-27.

 

[indo]

Why isn't the option of private assembly line by L&T for LCA being considered ?

 

[Nilgiri]

LOL, Not really Bro, if this approval is to be given in this NDA 1 term, i believe the following timeline may be best applicable

View attachment 338036
https://defence.pk/threads/dassault...ussions-thread-2.230070/page-346#post-8697166

If its shifted to NDA-2 as you say, then it can be even much later. But yes NDA1- anything between Mar2017 to Aug 2018.

If its Indian Standard Time, add 8-10 years to march 2017 so anywhere between March 2025-27.

Yes see....you understand the IST phenomenon haha. But with diligence of this administration relatively speaking....I am no longer so scared about crazy amount of time being taken for crucial requirements.

It will suck if (as I think) it will be a term 2 thing....but it sucks a lot less than standard IST hehe. IAF can barely get by, there will be a big hit for some years but they wont be paralysed for decades I dont think....and there are contingencies with MKI etc that can be harnessed (less optimal but available).

If its term 1 thing, I will add another feather to cap of DM and Modi admin defence wise....on top of this one I have given for seeing through these 36 rafales....while facing (or pretending to face hehe) all the pressure.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Why isn't the option of private assembly line by L&T for LCA being considered ?

Not a topic for this thread my friend, but still...
HAL turf war. They dont wish to share LCA Mk1A production to L&T as on date. Its their survival instinct and wish to be monopolistic. Their contention seems to be investments already made from their side.Also they realise, L&T with better project management skills and efficiency will anyway garner more accolades and to accommodate L&T, MOD will order a bigger share from them as well.

This should not surprise us at all. Its every PSU who acts like this.. Nothing new at all..But soon there seems to be a review on LCA project and progress of productivity rates which seems now to be more realistic estimated to peak in between 2021-25 types. This may actually trigger involvement of L&T but again for that more numbers of LCA Mk1A has to be firmed or LCA Mk2 project completely be given out to L&T as well as any other aircraft (LSA Ghost/ GripenE) as LCA Mk2 project as well. Thats the risk HAL is playing with. IAF anyway will be not happy as they wanted 4 LCA by airforce day and now is getting 2 SPs and 1 static model and DM MP will see all that as well.

Somewhere HAL has to utilise some of the best known pvt sector companies and stop protecting its turf if it does not want itself out of Tejas project in future iterations.

 

[randomradio]

That would be a wrong assumption bro, assuming the MII line approval is given in march 2017 or max by Dec 2017, the line setup itself will take 3 years so consumption of time puts us in 2021. Again kit based assembly will require at least say 15-18 months for initial low production rate so 2022+ timeline for first MII rafale to roll out.

If we take a call post 2019 elections or 2020, line finishes by 2024 and first plane comes out at 2026 kind of timeline right when FGFA is also available at low production rate from HAL line.
Fiscally it will be impossible to maintain a cost of $200Mn 5th gen fighter along with say a $85 Mn fighter together at one go. In other words, it will be prudent if we space out Rafale MII and FGFA MII production by at least 5 years to have some breathing space. Anyways HAL time is not considered at all for this equation..


Also consider the squadron strength dipping below 30 uptill that point of time with this plan

We had the first MKIs delivered in kits in 2 years after contract signature.

Why isn't the option of private assembly line by L&T for LCA being considered ?

IAF offered it in 2014, including billions in assured orders, no one took it.

 

[anant_s]

We can keep on deliberating on his matter, but given what DM said a day or two before Rafale deal was signed is an indication that future is sealed firmly in favor of Rafale.
LCA Mark 1A is definitely a certainty and now its a matter of streamlining production and these should start arriving in steady stream come 2020/21. By that time MKI lines would've done their work and perhaps gearing up for FGFA and the current Rafale induction would be in its last legs.
So realistically, the scenario could be as follows by end of this decade:

1. HAL: New line producing LCA and its variants.
2. HAL: New line for FGFA functional with low rate delivery initially
   
3. Private Vendor: Rafale production line in commissioning
   
4. AMCA: Prototype development work in some stage of completion.

Effectively that means two matured platforms in full swing production and induction and a new platform under initial phases of manufacturing and induction and one entirely new concept getting off from drawing board.
Beyond this, i don't think we should venture into any new territory, this mix assures that we remain abreast with latest technology, maintain only a few numbers of worthy platforms, cover all threat perceptions and above all donot spread our budget thin on N numbers of options.

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy

 

[BON PLAN]

Are you sure. I think PAF already have it.

even not induced in the USAF or USN, so not in the PAF before.... 15 years ?

France doesn't really have the Capacity to produce that many in a few years

France alone maybe not, even if with a max capacity of 33 plane/year we could boost your fleet faster than you have the funds for it I think
But with MII, it's another history.

All depend of YOU. It's not a question of capacity.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Simple Curiosity : Why do you think the DARINII Jags would be phased out? These frames are to upgraded to DARINIII and Hopefully new engines yes?

Not all DARIN II jets will be upgraded to DARIN III and re-engined A sizeable chunk of jaguar SQNs will begin being phased out in the next 7 years exposing a considerable gap in the IAF's DPSA fleet the needs to be filled.

France alone maybe not, even if with a max capacity of 33 plane/year we could boost your fleet faster than you have the funds for it I think
But with MII, it's another history.

All depend of YOU. It's not a question of capacity.

I hope you're aware Hassan isn't Indian mate