Dassault Rafale, tender | News & Discussions [Thread 2]

[BON PLAN]

A world where professional project management ensures products can be delivered on time...

Lockeed Martin is not Professional so.

 

[Taygibay]

I like the 60 Km+ No escape zone of meteor.

Hum!? Try 115km+ as the Meteor NEZ. High/Med PK to 185 Km.

other than that, the SCALP seems to have a longer range than the Brahmos?

How could we know, really? The difference is mostly MTCR induced.
Check this piece about the Black Shaheens.
http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/204051/saudi-arabia-storm-shadow-the-mtcr/
This sale could be problematic too.

India too got a reduced range but under the form of a different missile altogether.
And yet, if the Slavs are your friends, they could have forgotten an upgrade manual
in one of the crates?

So 500km+ down to - 300km but possibly back up to who knows where is the idea.

PariK bro, some upgrades can be hidden in the fly-away cost in opt. but std kits.

And Agent47, any modification from new bomb to HCMS requires a lot of high pay
grade man-hours to test all combinations. This part called integration is needed for
safety. If india decided it wanted one modif, the price would be low. 5 cost more. etc

​

Good evening all, Tay.

 

[jha]

Lets not buy it .. now what are the options?

How about buying another another 100 MKIs in Super-30 config and integrate Meteor/Scalp/Brahmos-NG? Will not cost more than 12-15 Billion dollars.. Invest rest in Kaveri/AMCA programs ...?

I am not an expert like other members here. So, another 40 Billion does seem to be astronomical amount of money to spend on a foreign plane.

Again, the figures here are all made up we cannot know for sure nor can anyone be clear what India is actually getting for the vast sums ( strategic tech will be coming as per the confidential IGA). Having said that, we DO know that Dassualt will invest 50% back into India so every other dollar is coming back to India and will go to highly advantageous areas (engine, ecosystem etc) so it makes no sense to consider this purely as an import with all the money outgoing.

In today's age top end tech is VERY expensive but that is the cost for quality, in the end India is one of the lowest defence spenders (as a proportion of GDP) in the world and it will spend many times its defence budget on infrastructure, healthcare, education, welfare etc etc.

The cost is justified to safeguard the very idea of India let alone it's 1.25++ BILLION citizens.

You pay peanuts you get monkeys.

So, Dassault will invest $20 Billion here ? Wonder where will that go..

Now Kaveri obviously will come online with their help in-lieu of their commitment with regards to current purchases. Why not start working on AMCA ?

 

[Agent_47]

And Agent47, any modification from new bomb to HCMS requires a lot of high pay
grade man-hours to test all combinations. This part called integration is needed for
safety. If india decided it wanted one modif, the price would be low. 5 cost more. etc

I get that, but do we have to pay these kind of amount every time we integrate something new ?

I don't see we integrating Astra or any other pro indian weapons for such a small order. Lightning,HMDS maybe spice thats it. @PARIKRAMA mentioned modifications for 'harsh climate conditions', Why do we pay for that kind of stuff? So that you can sell this modified planes to 'hot and cold' countries like UAE? This costs more than what dassault asked for changes to UAE requirements. Spending $4 billion of FGFA makes more sense, atleast we get some IPs and experience.

@BON PLAN @Picdelamirand-oil

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

I get that, but do we have to pay these kind of amount every time we integrate something new ?

I don't see we integrating Astra or any other pro indian weapons for such a small order. Lightning,HMDS maybe spice thats it. @PARIKRAMA mentioned modifications for 'harsh climate conditions', Why do we pay for that kind of stuff? So that you can sell this modified planes to 'hot and cold' countries like UAE? This costs more than what dassault asked for changes to UAE requirements. Spending $4 billion of FGFA makes more sense, atleast we get some IPs and experience.

@BON PLAN @Picdelamirand-oil

For the moment nobody know what will be the cost of UAE configuration. From what @PARIKRAMA said, it seems that you have choosen to get a very high level of availability whatever are the condition, Hot, high altitude, sand... So you need some special approach.

 

[Agent_47]

For the moment nobody know what will be the cost of UAE configuration. From what @PARIKRAMA said, it seems that you have choosen to get a very high level of availability whatever are the condition, Hot, high altitude, sand... So you need some special approach.

On Dec. 30, France launched a program worth some €1 billion (US $1.06 billion) to upgrade the Rafale F3 to the F3R standard by 2018. The new version will fire the MBDA Meteor long-range air-to-air missile, a laser version of the Sagem Armement Air Sol Modulaire powered smart bomb, and carry a Thales new-generation laser targeting pod, dubbed Talios, to succeed the present Damocles. The AESA RBE2 radar and Spectra electronic warfare system will also be improved.

The whole upgrade to F3R standard cost €1 billion and we pay $1.7 billion for hot/high + lightning + HMDS ?!
Something is not right, lets wait for full details. If these numbers are true DM is up for a lot of scrutiny.

 

[Hellfire]

@jha Will take you on a short journey of rationality so that you answer your own questions ..... please bear with me

How about buying another another 100 MKIs in Super-30

What will be the cost of another 100 Su-30 MKIs, with their planned upgrade to Super Sukhoi? What shall be the overall LCC costs on overall Sukhoi LCC? As also the additional costs in increasing the present reserve costs and infrastructure upgradation? Have you factored in the costs of these issues and do they turn out to be much 'cheaper' per unit for these additional 100 pieces? In what ways do these 100 meet/surpass and not meet/surpass rafale's capability?

config and integrate Meteor/Scalp/Brahmos-NG? Will not cost more than 12-15 Billion dollars.. Invest rest in Kaveri/AMCA programs ...?

I am sure the breakdown of the whole deal will tell you the cost of aircrafts being approx 3.4 billion euros. The rest going towards creation of infrastructure and weapons suite/avionics as per own specifications and modifications as we want them. So, your armament of Meteor is there, does Brahmos NG meet the criterion of Meteor? Or is Brahmos NG a different weapon for a different role?

What has happened to Kaveri? How long has it been in development and how successful has it been?

how early do you expect AMCA to be airborne? Has LCA been inducted in a squadron strength and is it now frontline combat aircraft after three and a half decades?

Why, in your opinion, did we buy T-90s and not Arjun in 1999 (although Arjun today is a formidable tank) and why do you think that we retrospectively ordered to buy ACs and additional protection suites AFTER paying to get them removed in the first case?

What is your opinion on Indians building a shed for the Phalcon AWACS which are too small and hence they are parked in open where their rotodome has to be looked after from elements?

Why, in your opinion, did we allow US to build integrated state of the art access controlled shelters for C-130s in Hindon and not sub-contract to our own people? And why, in your opinion, did US specifically prohibit maintenance and modifications by India and build it into the contract whereby any tampering will leave the warranty of the platform null and void?

What do you think is the reason for IA building Air conditioned warehouses for storage of ATGMs?

The answers to all these will give you a broad picture. Specifically, the issue has been discussed to death here. You just need to read back.

I am not an expert like other members here. So, another 40 Billion does seem to be astronomical amount of money to spend on a foreign plane.

The forty billion is in technology absorption, the number of platforms and the associated ancillaries. Otherwise, every time one would need to re-enter contract negotiations.

The underlined and bold part is very pertinent.

Intelligence gathering operations and expert 'information' has one thing in common - the ability to collate the data and make sense of it.

The information that you seek to clarify your doubts exists in this forum and this thread itself. It is only a question of your joining the dots and making a sense for yourself.

I suggest you do that, you would have answered your own questions/queries about this project and in the process will be a better informed member and citizen too.

 

[Picdelamirand-oil]

The whole upgrade to F3R standard cost €1 billion and we pay $1.7 billion for hot/high + lightning + HMDS ?!
Something is not right, lets wait for full details. If these numbers are true DM is up for a lot of scrutiny.

Seems that there is also an upgrade of M-88 and integration of some weapons.

 

[Abingdonboy]

How about buying another another 100 MKIs in Super-30 config and integrate Meteor/Scalp/Brahmos-NG? Will not cost more than 12-15 Billion dollars.. Invest rest in Kaveri/AMCA programs ...?

I am not an expert like other members here. So, another 40 Billion does seem to be astronomical amount of money to spend on a foreign plane.



So, Dassault will invest $20 Billion here ? Wonder where will that go..

Now Kaveri obviously will come online with their help in-lieu of their commitment with regards to current purchases. Why not start working on AMCA ?

There is a basic flaw in the argument for anyone pushing the Super MKI (leaving aside it is far from a perfect substitute for the Rafale and even after this deep upgrade will remain primarily a air dominance fighter) over the Rafale in that they assume that it is the cheaper option.

Whilst it is true that a significant proportion of this Rafale deal is being spent on building state of the art infrastructure that already exists for the MKI in India, the simple fact of the matter is the flyaway cost of the Super MKI is actually likely to be quite a bit more than the price being offered to India for the Rafale (this is before any price reductions when localised manufacturing commences). Secondly, even if the Super MKI was matching the Rafale in upfront cost (or marginally less) it will be FAR more expensive to fly, maintain and operate throughout its 30-40 year lifespan with the IAF.

A general rule of thumb that can be applied is that a Western military product will cost 3-4 times its initial price to maintain over the course of its lifespan, Russian equipment can be 5-6 times as costly. There is a reason why Russia has lost EVERY single open contract in India in recent times where Lifecycle cost analysis has been utilised (Aerial refuellers, heavy attack helo, heavy lift helo, RSH etc etc).

A simple illustration of this would be in the power plants of the respective fighters, here I'll assume the Super MKI is powered by the same engine as the current fleet. Whilst the M88 used on the Rafale has a total life span of around 4,000 hours, the AL-31 on the MKI has only 1,500 hours meaning that over the TTL of the MKI (6,000 hours) an MKI would used 4 sets (8 in total) of engines assuming the same TTL for the Rafale (although it could be more I'm not sure @Taygibay @Picdelamirand-oil ) the Rafale would only have used 2 sets (4 total) and there would still be around 50% life left in the second set of M88.

Considering the power plant of any fighter is easily the highest single cost item these costs when considered over a fleet of hundreds translates into MASSIVE expenditure totalling billions. Keeping with the engine topic, for 60-70% of the cost of the AL-31 the M88 offers 400% more performance. Extrapolate this across other elements and it is clear it is not as easy a case to make (more MKI vs inducting the Rafale).


As I have said, in this day and age modern military tech is very expensive there is no escaping this reality.

 

[BON PLAN]

The whole upgrade to F3R standard cost €1 billion and we pay $1.7 billion for hot/high + lightning + HMDS ?!
Something is not right, lets wait for full details. If these numbers are true DM is up for a lot of scrutiny.

The detail of the whole cost is unknown. It's only assumption from some of us.
Maybe these costs hide something else....

And if I remember well, F3R doesn't include a helmet... Seems that French air force doesn't trust on HMD so far.

Integrating Astra, Ligntning pod, russian missiles or bombs cost a lot.

What is quite sure is that the total number of Rafale in IAF can't stay at 36.

 

[jha]

@jha Will take you on a short journey of rationality so that you answer your own questions ..... please bear with me



What will be the cost of another 100 Su-30 MKIs, with their planned upgrade to Super Sukhoi? What shall be the overall LCC costs on overall Sukhoi LCC? As also the additional costs in increasing the present reserve costs and infrastructure upgradation? Have you factored in the costs of these issues and do they turn out to be much 'cheaper' per unit for these additional 100 pieces? In what ways do these 100 meet/surpass and not meet/surpass rafale's capability?



I am sure the breakdown of the whole deal will tell you the cost of aircrafts being approx 3.4 billion euros. The rest going towards creation of infrastructure and weapons suite/avionics as per own specifications and modifications as we want them. So, your armament of Meteor is there, does Brahmos NG meet the criterion of Meteor? Or is Brahmos NG a different weapon for a different role?

What has happened to Kaveri? How long has it been in development and how successful has it been?

how early do you expect AMCA to be airborne? Has LCA been inducted in a squadron strength and is it now frontline combat aircraft after three and a half decades?

Why, in your opinion, did we buy T-90s and not Arjun in 1999 (although Arjun today is a formidable tank) and why do you think that we retrospectively ordered to buy ACs and additional protection suites AFTER paying to get them removed in the first case?

What is your opinion on Indians building a shed for the Phalcon AWACS which are too small and hence they are parked in open where their rotodome has to be looked after from elements?

Why, in your opinion, did we allow US to build integrated state of the art access controlled shelters for C-130s in Hindon and not sub-contract to our own people? And why, in your opinion, did US specifically prohibit maintenance and modifications by India and build it into the contract whereby any tampering will leave the warranty of the platform null and void?

What do you think is the reason for IA building Air conditioned warehouses for storage of ATGMs?

The answers to all these will give you a broad picture. Specifically, the issue has been discussed to death here. You just need to read back.



The forty billion is in technology absorption, the number of platforms and the associated ancillaries. Otherwise, every time one would need to re-enter contract negotiations.

The underlined and bold part is very pertinent.

Intelligence gathering operations and expert 'information' has one thing in common - the ability to collate the data and make sense of it.

The information that you seek to clarify your doubts exists in this forum and this thread itself. It is only a question of your joining the dots and making a sense for yourself.

I suggest you do that, you would have answered your own questions/queries about this project and in the process will be a better informed member and citizen too.

In nutshell, we should be ready to spend $40-50 Billion dollars on ~150(?) odd planes because we obviously are not intelligent enough to build even sheds for Phalcons. Good enough for me.

 

[Abingdonboy]

In nutshell, we should be ready to spend $40-50 Billion dollars on ~150(?) odd planes because we obviously are not intelligent enough to build even sheds for Phalcons. Good enough for me.

Bro, please stop making up figures, it doesn't allow for a constructive discussion at all.

 

[jha]

There is a basic flaw in the argument for anyone pushing the Super MKI (leaving aside it is far from a perfect substitute for the Rafale and even after this deep upgrade will remain primarily a air dominance fighter) over the Rafale in that they assume that it is the cheaper option.

Whilst it is true that a significant proportion of this Rafale deal is being spent on building state of the art infrastructure that already exists for the MKI in India, the simple fact of the matter is the flyaway cost of the Super MKI is actually likely to be quite a bit more than the price being offered to India for the Rafale (this is before any price reductions when localised manufacturing commences). Secondly, even if the Super MKI was matching the Rafale in upfront cost (or marginally less) it will be FAR more expensive to fly, maintain and operate throughout its 30-40 year lifespan with the IAF.

Thats debatable. We are making MKIs in India, while the Rafales are coming from France. MII Rafale will undoubtedly cost more, much more. Not to forget the time it will take to establish a new Rafale Assembly line. If MII deal for Rafale is finalized by 2018, we will see first plane rolling off in 2023-2024.

 

[Indrajit]

Bro, please stop making up figures, it doesn't allow for a constructive discussion at all.

Everybody is making up figures, some do it on the number of jets "guaranteed" to be bought and others then have to come with the figures for the money which that will require (which the first lot simply acts like doesn't matter). As long as arbitrary figures get thrown about, no point in trying to say that only one side has a copyright on that.

 

[jha]

Bro, please stop making up figures, it doesn't allow for a constructive discussion at all.

Do you have a figure with you ? I am simply multiplying the current deal. Because MII will definitely cost more than current lot.

As I have said, in this day and age modern military tech is very expensive there is no escaping this reality.

I agree wit your point that we should be ready to pay more for best available tech. I even agree with one time purchase of 36 Rafales as offset clause will probably help us with K-10/K-9 and we will be able to assess much vaunted Spectra.
What I cant come to terms with is, that we are ready to establish assembly line for for such expensive aircrafts. Which certainly will put strain on other programs.

Anyway my POV seems to extremely unpopular here. So I'll stop posting on this topic of cost.