I was going to intervene on this
I thought Dassualt were ramping up production and were commited to delivering the first Rafale to India within 2 years?
but PariK beat me to it.
First one has to remember that the Rafale production line was built initially for 33 planes per year.
The 11 minimum aircrafts per annum was the warrantee of buys by the French govt. Below that,
each plane costs more to build and Dassault would see it as a part time job if you will. Exports were
to be the adjustment variable allowing the French government to buy less. 6 sold abroad equals 6
deliveries delayed and money for them along with it. There were still 26 Rafales to be received in the
present programmation law running till 2019. 11 came last year and 4 will have come this year not
including the F1 refits on their own ttimeline. None are coming for 3 years except those borrowed by
Egypt that will trickle in at some point in there. 2020 is when the last tranche planned so far starts.
When Trappier announced the ramping up, he said it would take up to 3 years to reach full speed.
The reason for this is that from the first hole drilled on the first component to the roll-off takes 3 years.
Thus, ramping up means that those at the beginning of the chain have begun producing more already
but the full speed will show in number of aircrafts delivered in 32/33 months : 3 per month. Because of
that delay, Dassault had to hike production prior to signing. It is good for Indians that want this fighter
to understand that Egypt and Qatar having already signed orders above what the line could deliver :
24 + 24 = 48 over 3 years that equal 33 at 11 per year means 15 left or 18 months of production, the
ramping up had to come from another order. And there are 2 prospects : UAE & you Bharatis!
See what I mean? That means that whomever signs first may get normal delivery
( speedy ones are taken, first come ... )
and the other will get a 36 months wait! Which spot do you want?
Of course, if either deal fails, the other will still get its first birds in 2019 but with deliveries of up to ...
20+ per year in 2020 and beyond as a full production of 33, with previous deals served, allows on top
of the 11 that the French Forces should again receive.
For a 36 planes deal in that context, total delivery will take a mere 20 months!
Interesting tale of the tape, wouldn't you say? Tay.
