CPEC to boost Pakistan GDP growth to 7.5%...

[mdcp]

We desperately need to create over 5 millions jobs as over 10 million Pakistanis working in overseas which caused in brain drain so we need to keep talent by providing them fair opportunities.

 

[abc123xyx]

its just a road , which they are building for easy and efficient distibution of their products....how it going to improve your gdp ?

 

[shjliu]

Best wishes for CPEC, hope it will prosper Pakistan

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

Such articles seldom makes any sense. CPEC is a huge project extending several years if not a decade. The likely positive impact will definitely be there but would be distributed over years. You can't count all the growth to happen in same year and also use the same year as the base for calculating growth %.

It's Pakistan's Transcontinential Railroad, and Interstate system.

once pakistan had achieved a growyh of around 7 without cpec. if cpec adds two points then 9% to 10% growth is possible in future.

Different Time.

OR the rich will get richer with minimal improvement in the living standard of a common poor pakistani?

Lorenz Curve.

 

[Providence]

CPEC is not a finite project and "just a route". It is a continuous journey that will last many decades and is all about making Pakistan a developed modern nation to at least the standards of Turkey. CPEC is also about making Pakistan industrialised, economically powerful and self-sufficient in terms of manufacturing and developing advanced weapons systems. It's a project that has many facets and areas which have not yet been covered.

It's Pakistan's Transcontinential Railroad, and Interstate system.

You guys misunderstood my point. Suppose your GDP is A currently. CPEC will give an impact of X, X+a, X+2a in subsequent years.

So gdp growth due to it will be X/A in first year.

X+a/ (A+X) in second year.

X+2a/(A+X+a) in third year.

While you are seeing rollover effects and quantum of growth is increasing each year, ie. X, X+a; X+2a etc, your GDP base is also increasing proportionately (A+X; A+X+a; A+X+2a .... etc)

So the actual rate of growth in % terms may not be that high year on year compared !

 

[Reichsmarschall]

Why not? after all you have Ishaq Dar as finance minister.
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1195911/doling-praises-ishaq-dar-declared-finance-minister-year/
Ishaq Dar declared ‘finance minister of the year’
Ishaq Dar declared ‘finance minister of the year’
By Shahbaz Rana
Published: October 9, 2016

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar has nominated Pakistan’s Ambassador to United States, Jalil Abbas Jilani to receive the award on this behalf. PHOTO: INP

ISLAMABAD: A private publication, Emerging Markets has declared Ishaq Dar as ‘Finance Minister of the year 2016 for South Asia’, said the finance ministry, on Saturday, while presenting it as a big achievement for the country.

“Emerging Markets, the newspaper of the IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting, has declared Senator Mohammad Ishaq Dar as ‘Finance Minister of the year 2016 for South Asia’,” reads an official handout. However, people who have worked in the IMF and the WB said the publication does not belong to the IMF or the WB.

“The award is recognition of Pakistan’s economic performance at the IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting which is one of the major gatherings of international financial and economic leaders and experts,” said the ministry.

 

[Turingsage]

• THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE > BUSINESS

The fine print on the CPEC portfolio
By Faran Mahmood
Published: November 6, 2016
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ISLAMABAD: Mega projects are all about multi-billion dollar budgets, fast-tracking schedules and triggering media hype. However, they also involve creating a consistent but compelling narrative for stakeholder consensus.

Pakistan too, is expected to get a “CPEC booster shot” of around $5 billion in Foreign Direct Investment over the next couple of years – with a promise to jump start its sluggish economy, at least in the short term. Since 2013, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has had its fair share of highs and lows in the national media but a closer look reveals that the devil is in the details. Whilst the government claims that CPEC is the ‘Holy Grail’ of its development agenda, the picture is not as simple as it is portrayed to be.

Missing policy frameworks

Imagine the chaos that may ensue if we execute the $51.5 billion CPEC programme in the absence of a national transport policy. All stakeholder exercises in the past have failed to roll out a viable and fair national transport policy. The Federal Ombudsman Secretariat called for formulation of the national policy in February this year but the issue has been thrown on the backburner once again.

Policymakers need to decide the market structure and offer just the right incentives. For instance, if we liberalise the power market and offer targeted subsidies to firms willing to invest in rural areas, we can expect increased rural electrification levels. In the absence of such a winning policy blueprint, the participation of private sector in infrastructure projects will remain low.

Can we break the “connectivity bottleneck” in absence of such a policy framework? Only time will tell.

Who’s calling the shots?

A Prime Minister’s Delivery Unit has been set up in Islamabad that works with the Joint Cooperation Committee of China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Planning Commission. Although a multi-tier mechanism has been put in place besides setting up five joint working groups to deal with energy, transport infrastructure, special economic zones, Gwadar and planning; it is the Ministry of Finance that is calling all the shots. The role of the CPEC secretariat at the Planning Commission has been reduced to that of an inter-provincial coordinator.

CPEC planners lack the deep domain experience of putting systems and processes in place for the performance reporting of Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) companies and frequent tracking of key variables. The only tool available at hand is an obsolete PC-iii form and the committee established by the prime minister in June 2015 to propose alternative mechanisms for monitoring of megaprojects has not yet come up with a new project management process suite.

Problems with the boomtown, Gwadar

Gwadar has an acute drinking water shortage as its Ankara Kaur dam has dried up. The Mirani dam will not able to meet its future water requirements after a mass migration of labour force takes place to complete projects such as Gwadar airport and coal power plants.

With a depth of only 14.5 metres, Gwadar can’t become a trans-shipment hub for transit trade from Central Asian states. Moreover, oil shipments from Gwadar to China via trains aren’t economically viable as it costs 800% higher than direct shipments to Chinese ports.

Iffy Economics: The Chinese model

In 2014, Sri Lanka borrowed several billion dollars from China for infrastructure development, on the condition that major contracts shall be awarded to Chinese firms without any competition. All these projects are now in shambles – with the Sri Lankan government reaching out to the International Monetary Fund for payback of expensive Chinese loans.

Drawing parallels, Pakistan is also repeating same mistakes by awarding contracts to Chinese players without any competitive bidding – with a sovereign guarantee of 18% return on investments.

Moreover, there is no guarantee that Chinese will pump money into our local economy by sourcing materials and labour force from Pakistan. The lion’s share of 400,000 jobs that will be created may go to Chinese labour force – not to mention the hefty cement and construction material import bill that may touch the billion dollar mark.

The way CPEC is unfolding now calls for new rules of business such that it mutually benefits both economies. All tenders should be open and transparent with mandatory provisions to source local materials, labour and management. The key lesson to learn at this stage is that there’s no such thing as a free lunch and there are no shortcuts to development.

The writer is a Cambridge graduate and is working as a management consultant.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1222526/delving-deep-fine-print-cpec-portfolio/



Its clear that this is an asset stripping exercise by China with China sovereign guaranteed by the Pakistan govt to return at least 20% on the whole CPEC lending and provide employment for the Chinese whose economy is facing a major structural change. The Chinese are managing this change at the expense of Pakistan. Its equally clear that NOT A SINGLE BARREL OF OIL will be transported from Gwadar to China, not when it costs 800% more. You have to wryly smile at the gullibility of the Pakistani hoi polloi and their endless ability at self deception fed from its "establishment"

 

[Banglar Bir]

Looks promising. Just hope there is no Corruption in the government which rides the development in negative direction.

YES, AND PLEASE CHECK YOUR RANKING IN THE CORRUPTION INDEX. PLEASE.

In 2015, India was ranked 76th out of 168 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, compared to its neighbours Bhutan (27th), Bangladesh (139th), Myanmar (156th), China (83rd), Nepal (130th), Pakistan (117th) and Sri Lanka (83rd).

 

[Great Sachin]

Nice work guys. By the way it's really funny to watch the comments on Indian news websites . Indians are dying in their jeoulsy and envy of Pakistan China Corridor.

You can easily derive three conclusions of what normal indian public thinks of CPEC to satisfy their ego :-
1) Pakistan will become colony of China. China will become East India Company.
2) India should conquer Pakistan occupied Kashmir and Balouchistan because these two lands belong to India before China gets control of them.
3) India should boycott Chinese products

your media

 

[Chhatrapati]

YES, AND PLEASE CHECK YOUR RANKING IN THE CORRUPTION INDEX. PLEASE.

In 2015, India was ranked 76th out of 168 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, compared to its neighbours Bhutan (27th), Bangladesh (139th), Myanmar (156th), China (83rd), Nepal (130th), Pakistan (117th) and Sri Lanka (83rd).

My countries ranking is not relevant in CPEC is it? Please don't quote my messages if you are typing irrelevant content.
Thanks

 

[haviZsultan]

once pakistan had achieved a growyh of around 7 without cpec. if cpec adds two points then 9% to 10% growth is possible in future.

During PPP and PMLN regimes growth rate has fallen to an abysimal average of 3%, too small for an economy so immature as Pakistans. Musharrafs period had one of the highest growths.

 

[Talwar e Pakistan]

This isn't coming as a surprise.

Before Pakistan's energy crisis our growth rate was reaching 7-10%

 

[Qutb-ud-din Aybak]

loadshedding had just been reduced to half. 3 hours daily in cities. 4 hours in villages. growth will increase.

 

[Mrc]

Teeli khattack wants to take a stay order on cpec through high court...

If he does kpk assembly shud b desolved and governer rule imposed till next elections...

Pti is a dead horse any ways

 

[saurav jha]

It is indeed very good project . it will bring prosperity to Pakistan . more people will get jobs and it will reduce number of Pakistanis becoming terrorists .