CPEC is set to transform Pakistan’s economy

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CPEC is set to transform Pakistan’s economy
By Shakeel Ahmed Ramay
Published: February 12, 2018
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PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a hot topic these days. The government wants to sell it as its major achievement, while the opposition claims its contribution in negotiating during its tenure.

A quick review of the documents shows that the CPEC seeds had been sown long ago. Beijing Declaration 2003 gives the first footprint of the concept. Pakistan’s former ambassador to China late Akram Zaki once told me that the land corridor had been on the cards since the times of air corridor in the 1960s, and Silk Road was the first step toward it.

CPEC is a bigger initiative in nature and it will transform the economy of Pakistan and the same has been promised in Vision 2025. Therefore, it is necessary to dwell on linkages between Vision 2025 and CPEC. Comparative analysis shows the two have so many complementarities.
CPEC is a game changer in region: minister

CPEC investments are related to infrastructure, energy, railways, optic fibre, agriculture, tourism as well as research and development. Energy and transport sectors are on the priority list along with Gwadar city and port. Vision 2025 identifies that every year Pakistan loses 4-6% of its GDP due to the energy crisis. This loss to GDP means decline in production base, exports, saving and investment, inflation and availability of employment.

Owing to the energy crisis, industries started relocating outside the country, which further contributed to non-availability of jobs and decline of exports. The declining exports are another area, which is now haunting the country. Trade deficit is increasing and negative impact on foreign reserves and balance of payment is evident. Vision 2025 outlined a plan and strategy for investment in different forms of energy like coal, hydro and renewable. Coal was cogitated as one of the most immediate source.

Despite the investments in coal sector, its share in the electricity mix would be minimum and benefits enormous. It will help overcome the chronic problem of load-shedding. Cheap and sustainable supply of electricity will enhance the competitiveness of the industry and boost exports and provision of jobs, especially for the youth. Apart from coal, a huge investment has made in renewable power sources like solar, wind and hydro, and Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park is already operational.

Vision 2025 also identifies infrastructure related to transport as one of the major impediment for rapid growth. Almost 7% of GDP is lost due to inefficient transport sector. Investment in infrastructure will enhance efficiency and regional connectivity. Regional connectivity will pave the way for trade and peace.

Railways share in transportation will also be increased from 4% to 20%. Through CPEC, investment is being made to upgrade roads, construction of new highways, motorways and creating linkages among existing roads.

Special Economic Zones (SEZs) under CPEC would be a way to achieve goals of Vision 2025. First and foremost would be the enhancement and sustainability of the production base of country. It will create jobs, as Pakistan needs 1.5 million jobs every year to accommodate and benefit from the youth bulge.

Other factors

Another important area is water, food and energy security in the country and along with that are two most serious problems. SDPI in 2013 concluded that almost 58.8% population is food insecure. Analysis further exhibited that the situation in 2025 will be more complicated due to population increase and climate change. Water availability is another area of grave concern. Per capita availability has come down to 1,000 cm2. Climate change is impacting water sector in Pakistan and the country is already facing water disasters like floods and drought. According to IPCC and UNDP report on vulnerability, the situation will be further complicated in the near future.

This grave situation requires urgent and sustainable investment in water and agriculture sector. Fortunately, Vision 2025 and CPEC also prioritise these areas. Vision 2025 outlined the goals of doubling power generation and enhancing access from 67% to 90%. Water storage will be increased to up to 90 days from 30 days. Food insecure population will be down to 30%.

To improve food security, agriculture is an acceptable sector to play a leading role with its multiple roles, eg production of food, employment to 44% labour force, which contributes to 21% of GDP. Long Term Plan (LTP) of CPEC gives a comprehensive list of programmes for investment. It includes farming, livestock breeding, forestry and food growing, and aquatic and fishery. Research and technological cooperation would be augmented. Production of inputs would also encourage and given technological assistance. Agriculture is also targeted as a key area to combat poverty by transferring sector into climate change resilient and globally competitive sector.

Water was the part of CPEC in different forms like drinking, sanitation, agriculture and industry. Now both China and Pakistan have decided to amplify cooperation. Dam building has also been included in the list of CPEC. Different sources quote a figure of $50 billion for building a cascade of dams along the Indus river. Infrastructure related to water will also be made resilient to climate change. There would also be investment in irrigation sector, especially in drip irrigation.

Apart from the areas mentioned above, Vision 2025 also spells out the goals about tourism development. It is a well-established fact that Pakistan is bestowed with beautiful landscape and geography. Vision 2025 identified religious, historical and naturally attractive sites as potential for developing tourism. LTP outlined the development of eco-tourism in coastal and mountainous areas of Pakistan.

China will help improve knowledge base for Pakistan. It will build the capacity of universities and students to compete at international level. Exchange programmes have already been started and now thousands of Pakistani students are not only frequent visitors of Chinese universities, but are also studying there.

CPEC: Govt urged to address private sector’s concerns

A comparative study of Vision 2025 and LTP of CPEC shows that both are complimentary to each other with a number of goals and objectives. The only thing is how Pakistan opts for the Chinese model of success by using its indigenous tools of development and research.

The writer is the Head of Centre for Future Policy and Head of Research Coordination Unit, Sustainable Development Policy Institute



Published in The Express Tribune, February 12th, 2018.

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[MultaniGuy]

Hopefully CPEC will transform Pakistan's economy. The time is coming soon to see prosperous Pakistan.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Hopefully CPEC will transform Pakistan's economy.

First China has to transform Pakistani society. A economy is reflection of a society. You get Germans together and you get German economy. You get Japs together and you get Jap economy. You get Pakistani's together and you get the disaster called pakistan economy.

We need to change. Then our fortunes will change.

 

[MultaniGuy]

First China has to transform Pakistani society. A economy is reflection of a society. You get Germans together and you get German economy. You get Japs together and you get Jap economy. You get Pakistani's together and you get the disaster called pakistan economy.

We need to change. Then our fortunes will change.

Indeed the whole Pakistani mentality needs to be changed. We need hard working and industrious people.

 

[khansaheeb]

First China has to transform Pakistani society. A economy is reflection of a society. You get Germans together and you get German economy. You get Japs together and you get Jap economy. You get Pakistani's together and you get the disaster called pakistan economy.

We need to change. Then our fortunes will change.

Pakistan needs to transform it's governance and taxation system. Mushy started off well with local governance but the disruptive elements took over and are abusing it for their own purpose. Going back to the CPEC topic, CPEC is an evolutionary product of two core objectives: firstly a secondary port called Gwadar as a reslience to attack on Karachi and secondly the Karakorum Highway as a trade and military link with China. Both Pakistan and China saw reason to further cooperation and expand it to what it is today. The initial plans have grown to this grand strategic spectrum of infrastructure and energy projects. If Iran join we will then have to call it the golden pipeline, forget the silk route.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Pakistan needs to transform it's governance and taxation system.

Pakistan needs to transform it's political, social culture first. Once that is done it will inform a natural change in everything. Governance, taxation etc are exposition of a people. If people change their culture these will change as well. If the way we think does not change you can't graft foreign concepts because the society will reject them like our bodies reject a donor kidney if it is not matched to our dna.

The miracle you see in China cannot be replicated because it is the product of the massive social, cultural, societal reforms taken by the Communist Party of China post 1950. CCP effectively destroyed the previous Chinese society and rebuilt it with a Western template modified slightly for their environment. Only after this modified wesernization did China begin the rise.

Their success is a symptom of their efforts to change their society. If we keep our society 'desi' then the only thing you will see the same desi failure in a long line of desi failures begining with the Sikhs thumping us and then British enslaving us. It is amazing that in Pakistan the elephant in the room is ignored. That failed elephant is our desi culture that has only given us failure and defeat.

 

[Menace2Society]

First China has to transform Pakistani society. A economy is reflection of a society. You get Germans together and you get German economy. You get Japs together and you get Jap economy. You get Pakistani's together and you get the disaster called pakistan economy.

We need to change. Then our fortunes will change.

Pakistanis think there is magic wand to fix the economy but they need to realise they have to act to change their economy.

Pakistan has no international grade 5 star resort, rubbish 60s trains, no top airport,no skyline. No built up city centre district. Everything looks poor. Build the damn country its 2018 for god sake. Pakistani expats doing so well why can't locals?

Countries like Malaysia and Phillipines look better.

I don't understand what Pakistanis are doing over there.

 

[Rashid Mahmood]

https://twitter.com/x/status/963998034240724993

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[koolio]

First China has to transform Pakistani society. A economy is reflection of a society. You get Germans together and you get German economy. You get Japs together and you get Jap economy. You get Pakistani's together and you get the disaster called pakistan economy.

We need to change. Then our fortunes will change.

Well said friend, until Pakistani's are not willing to change, as evidenced in Lodhra by- elections, there will be no change, no hope stuck in endless disasters which unfortunately many Pakistani's do not or not willing to understand for the better.

 

[GeraltofRivia]

Pakistan needs to transform it's political, social culture first. Once that is done it will inform a natural change in everything. Governance, taxation etc are exposition of a people. If people change their culture these will change as well. If the way we think does not change you can't graft foreign concepts because the society will reject them like our bodies reject a donor kidney if it is not matched to our dna.

The miracle you see in China cannot be replicated because it is the product of the massive social, cultural, societal reforms taken by the Communist Party of China post 1950. CCP effectively destroyed the previous Chinese society and rebuilt it with a Western template modified slightly for their environment. Only after this modified wesernization did China begin the rise.

Their success is a symptom of their efforts to change their society. If we keep our society 'desi' then the only thing you will see the same desi failure in a long line of desi failures begining with the Sikhs thumping us and then British enslaving us. It is amazing that in Pakistan the elephant in the room is ignored. That failed elephant is our desi culture that has only given us failure and defeat.

Totally agreed with your analysis regarding the social transformation in China.

One thing I think would be very beneficial for Pakistan’s industrialization is setting up a study-work program that send a large number of young students to China. There was a Chinese Diligent Work Frugal Study Movement in 1920’s which sent students to France in thousands and produced a number of future leaders in new China including Deng Xiao Ping. Interestingly his first job was as a fitter at the Le Creusot Iron and Steel Works. The program did not only provide him the opportunity to work in a modern industry but also allow him to meet many young men who were equally eager to save China. What is interesting to me when I read this part of the history is that Deng received great support from his father, who probably never traveled overseas but was willing to send his son to a faraway country that would take a few months to reach in order to save China. His son would have had a comfortable life at home but the father knew this was necessary. I am sure the other thousands students have received the same support from their families and local businessmen financially.

I think there is probably such program already but it should be expanded significantly. When these young students return home, they would bring back not only the technology knowledge but also the experience of Chinese organization and work culture. They can then select the part of the experience that is suitable for Pakistan in order to accelerate the industrialization.