Countering Cold Start doctrine by PAF

[Developereo]

@Dash,

These are the same points as deckinraj, which I already answered.

I will only add, in regards to your last paragraph, that this is precisely the Indian delusion that Pakistan rejects. If Pakistani soil is attacked by India, we will not be held back by international pressure, diplomatic or otherwise. Cold Start begins with a military invasion, and it will have a military end.

India's biggest mistake would be to confuse Cold Start with Kargil.

 

[Dash]

I will only add, in regards to your last paragraph, that this is precisely the Indian delusion that Pakistan rejects. If Pakistani soil is attacked by India, we will not be held back by international pressure, diplomatic or otherwise

lets hope that you dont come under international pressure.

Cold Start begins with a military invasion, and it will have a military end

Well we havr to settele somewhere. Like i said you are still confused. As per the bolded part cold start is not a military invasion plan. period, Its a prepardness for a two fron war. We are not so stupid to attack 2 countries at once, are we?...

So if only its been invaded then cold start will coem into picture. And I am sure you would and any body would have already committed another mistake by invading us first.

so if you take CS as a full fledged war and invoking cold start on you, I dont think you are that stupid either.
Our aim is to limited to Kashmir and kashmir only...

 

[TaimiKhan]

Hi santro --

Apologies i wasnt aware of this. Are we talking post mumbai over here ? Also is there any link or is this heresay from pilots !

Yeah it was after Mumbai, check the new archives for around 13/14 December news.

Here for some help:

Indian jets violating Pakistani airspace ‘technical incursion’, says Zardari (Fourth Lead)

PAF chases away Indian warplanes

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/18830-message-kayani-photogragh.html

And this is some BBC Urdu news item telling about the incident.

http://pakistankakhudahafiz.wordpress.com/2008/12/23/let-the-indians-strike-targets-us-to-zardari/

BBCUrdu.com | ??????? | ?????? ??????????? ?????? ?????

 

[shanixee]

Please read this article

Operation Blue Tulsi: 15 Years in Planning, 10 Years in Preparation and Today in Execution – Updated Pak Alert Press

 

[deckingraj]

A reigning hyperpower does not compromise with a ragtag bunch of guerillas; it dictates terms of surrender.

No not really.... If i can achieve peace by saving a few hundreds of mine instead of killing thousands enemy and hundreds of mine getting killed in combat then there is nothing wrong in going after the first option.....As said there is a change of strategy....US realized the mistake that they need to follow inclusive approach rather then other way....

Defeat would be Taliban taking over AF again.....Regarding hyperpower notion then don't forget fighting guerillas is difficult then fighting a formidable enemy because guerillas are invisible and don't have any pattern....This has been proved in the past(read Vietnam, AF-Russia) and won't be surprised if proved again...However as of now we can call it change of strategy and no defeat.....

As for Pakistan in Swat, we were destroying our own our land and killing our own people, who were misguided under foreign backing. Much better to convert them to our side than to kill them.

Watch out the words carefully.....misguided by foreign backing..were are all dillusions....Mind it i am not ruling out foreign hand...but simply putting everything on foreign hand is a big understatement....B/W people are still blowing bombs so were may not be right either.....

Anyways the idea is change of strategy....You tried to be-friend them but it back fired...they took over Banur and now you are fighting with them....Change of strategy based on ground situation....nothing less nothing more....

I agree that long term Pakistan must fight India on the economic front but this thread, and my statement, is about Cold Start.

Cold Start is going to stay and with economic might the balance of executing it will shift in India's favor....You never know how the equations will turn out to be but its the cold start which will keep you on your toes all the time....

 

[notorious_eagle]

These were M2Ks which intruded, Su-30s most probably were giving them support from across the border through its long range radar.

And i believe in one later incident, Su-30s also had intruded.

From what i have heard Taimi Bhai is that the M2K's were flying in a formation fully loaded with LGB's and were backed up by MIG29's whom were tailing them. PAF was aware that they were approaching the border and Mirage III's were scrambled to intercept them which they did. The MKI was on a different mission, with its advanced ELINT and Reconnaissance pod i am quite sure it was on a snooping mission. The Israelis are famous for this, i think they call it "Test Run". The recent new found friendship between the IDAF and IAF has certainly changed the mindset of the IAF, most probably they borrowed this from the Israelis.

But what many people don't realize here is how close the IAF and PAF came close to engaging each other, the Government(must give credit to them) played a huge role in putting the fire out. After this incident, every squadron was put on a Red Alert. Every plane was loaded with munitions and gassed up, PAF started patrolling the border 24/7 and were aggressively maneuvering their planes near the border which they usually avoid. Forward Bases were activated and SAM's/Ground Radars were deployed on front line positions. The pilots were sleeping with their boots on. Contacts with Friendly Countries(not going to name who) were activated regarding assistance.

I dont know much how the IAF responded but i do know that they were also patrolling their borders 24/7 but they didn't violate the International Borders. Thank God the incident didn't escalate into a full fledged fire fight because either way both countries would have ended up being the losers. Should also give credit to the pilots of both sides for keeping their heads cool and not giving into the temptation .

 

[deckingraj]

@Dash,

These are the same points as deckinraj, which I already answered.

I will only add, in regards to your last paragraph, that this is precisely the Indian delusion that Pakistan rejects. If Pakistani soil is attacked by India, we will not be held back by international pressure, diplomatic or otherwise. Cold Start begins with a military invasion, and it will have a military end.

India's biggest mistake would be to confuse Cold Start with Kargil.

With all due respect and no intention of undermining your sovereingnty please note that saying Pakistan will not be held back by International pressure imply's that either you are not aware of how international politics work or national pride is coming in b/w rational thinking......It is quite obvious that your and My establishment will openly say that there won't be any international pressure to stop us...but that assertion is little far from reality.....

At the moment US is the supreme power...just ponder if they can arm twist you to take a U-turn on AF policy even though it was detrimental to your own interest(mess in Pakistan is proof to it)..if they can carry on drone attacks even though your entire parliament oppose it(covert blessing of Pak establishment does not count as on the peripherry atleast they oppose) what made you so confident that Pak cannot be stopped if someone really want to????

International pressure should not be taken lightly....Unless and until you are a supreme power like US you cannot ignore international pressure....However i agree with you that assuming International pressure will definitely be there to stop Pakistan would be wrong.....but if there is one(read international pressure) ignoring it is very difficult and painful....With growing economic clout and perception of Pak being breeding ground for terrorist there is higher probability that International community will support Indian cause...

So assuming international pressure is there lets ponder what it can do - To me atleast it can ensure Pak retaliation is not nuclear...The world will force us(read India and Pak) to cease-fire and end the hostilities....return back to peace time locations and resolve the issues....Something that fits with Cold-Start because we want to inflict maximum damage as early as possible keeping in mind the nuclear threshold....

Now what is your counter to it...To me counter is not that we will show middle finger to International pressure(the way most members portray)...the counter is to mobilize your own forces at matching pace(if not better) with Indians and make their(read IA) advances suicidal....I am sure your side is definitely working/already worked on it...

And this ties back to my earlier post where is say that our economic advances will put tremendous pressure on your economy and this scenario has the potential to repeast US-USSR cold war results....So honestly your serious challenge is how to get Pak back on economic track....Just to give one hypothetical scenario(hypothetical because it is still not realized)

- India is going to field BDM system....The first phase will cover missiles launched from pak....With such a development you will forced to have MIRV technology as well as huge stock of missiles to overwhelm our BMD system...In short our development forced you to invest more in MIRV technology as well increase your arsenal to almost double/tripple then what you could have lived with had BMD not there....Since india is enjoying economic boom we can affort to have 5 interceptors per missile of yours....but can you afford 2 missiles per interceptor of ours???? Now complement this with our planned procurements in AF, IN and finally IA things are looking bad for Pak....

 

[anathema]

Yeah it was after Mumbai, check the new archives for around 13/14 December news.

Here for some help:

Indian jets violating Pakistani airspace ‘technical incursion’, says Zardari (Fourth Lead)

PAF chases away Indian warplanes

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strategic-geopolitical-issues/18830-message-kayani-photogragh.html

And this is some BBC Urdu news item telling about the incident.

Let the Indians Strike Targets: US to Zardari Pakistan Ka Khuda Hafiz

BBCUrdu.com | ??????? | ?????? ??????????? ?????? ?????

Taimi -- I read the links...however i didnt find any account of MIII taking off from the bases to intercept...neither did i find any account of indian MK2 trying to intrude ..or that Su 30's were in the picture...

So was this all heresay from the pilots involved.

 

[anathema]

From what i have heard Taimi Bhai is that the M2K's were flying in a formation fully loaded with LGB's and were backed up by MIG29's whom were tailing them. PAF was aware that they were approaching the border and Mirage III's were scrambled to intercept them which they did. The MKI was on a different mission, with its advanced ELINT and Reconnaissance pod i am quite sure it was on a snooping mission. The Israelis are famous for this, i think they call it "Test Run". The recent new found friendship between the IDAF and IAF has certainly changed the mindset of the IAF, most probably they borrowed this from the Israelis.

But what many people don't realize here is how close the IAF and PAF came close to engaging each other, the Government(must give credit to them) played a huge role in putting the fire out. After this incident, every squadron was put on a Red Alert. Every plane was loaded with munitions and gassed up, PAF started patrolling the border 24/7 and were aggressively maneuvering their planes near the border which they usually avoid. Forward Bases were activated and SAM's/Ground Radars were deployed on front line positions. The pilots were sleeping with their boots on. Contacts with Friendly Countries(not going to name who) were activated regarding assistance.

I dont know much how the IAF responded but i do know that they were also patrolling their borders 24/7 but they didn't violate the International Borders. Thank God the incident didn't escalate into a full fledged fire fight because either way both countries would have ended up being the losers. Should also give credit to the pilots of both sides for keeping their heads cool and not giving into the temptation .

NE -- Good post.

However if a IAF plane was indeed loaded with LGB's and was tailed by Mig 29 then...it can be safely assumed that they were on a mission ...Regardless of PAF interceptors IAF would have carried on with mission -- after all IAF wouldnt be thinking that 'hey PAF will not come to know about this attack'.....you dont call of the mission just because enemy fighters have taken off to intercept you....

So it would be wise to say that NO LGB's were carried -- Yes A2A ammunition is definite possibility....a big bluff game was carried out , i guess.....

And your point about ELINT --- yes that is definite possibility.

 

[Donatello]

From what i have heard Taimi Bhai is that the M2K's were flying in a formation fully loaded with LGB's and were backed up by MIG29's whom were tailing them. PAF was aware that they were approaching the border and Mirage III's were scrambled to intercept them which they did. The MKI was on a different mission, with its advanced ELINT and Reconnaissance pod i am quite sure it was on a snooping mission. The Israelis are famous for this, i think they call it "Test Run". The recent new found friendship between the IDAF and IAF has certainly changed the mindset of the IAF, most probably they borrowed this from the Israelis.

But what many people don't realize here is how close the IAF and PAF came close to engaging each other, the Government(must give credit to them) played a huge role in putting the fire out. After this incident, every squadron was put on a Red Alert. Every plane was loaded with munitions and gassed up, PAF started patrolling the border 24/7 and were aggressively maneuvering their planes near the border which they usually avoid. Forward Bases were activated and SAM's/Ground Radars were deployed on front line positions. The pilots were sleeping with their boots on. Contacts with Friendly Countries(not going to name who) were activated regarding assistance.

I dont know much how the IAF responded but i do know that they were also patrolling their borders 24/7 but they didn't violate the International Borders. Thank God the incident didn't escalate into a full fledged fire fight because either way both countries would have ended up being the losers. Should also give credit to the pilots of both sides for keeping their heads cool and not giving into the temptation .

M2Ks, MIG 29 and SU30 all in one? Well i am sure PAF scrambled with more than Mirage III.

Some say PAF sent F-16s, i don't know how much info is available to public, but it would be interesting to know how the older F-16s intercepted and what pilots think that could have helped had they been BLK52+ ones.


So was it Mirage III or F-16s to intercept? Because M2K will certainly have edge in agility compared to Mirage III.


Lastly, you say PAF saw them approach which means no Jamming was done by IAF and also they were picked up by land radar?

 

[Contrarian]

Shanixee


Indian already has a significant lift capablity, much more significant than what you suggest these new transport will do - so how does your filling 16 more aircraft with commando troops offer a more dangerous threat?

Could it be that the Indian is hedging his bets with regard to suppliers and siganlling a willingness to engage ina strategic shift while moderninzing his fleet?? possibly?

As a matter of fact India has insignificant lift capability compared to what is needed for the size of Armed Forces that India has. The ratio is absolutely pathetic compared to what is needed to execute doctrines like Cold Start.

This goes right from transport planes to transport helos.

It is in this direction that the C-17 is being purchased. The MTA is being attempted, Mi 17's are being build, et all. C-17 is for Very Heavy Lift Category which are needed to transport guns and tanks which Il-76/78's cannot.

Within 10 years, there will be a significant change in India's lift capabilities.

 

[SQ8]

From what i have heard Taimi Bhai is that the M2K's were flying in a formation fully loaded with LGB's and were backed up by MIG29's whom were tailing them. PAF was aware that they were approaching the border and Mirage III's were scrambled to intercept them which they did. The MKI was on a different mission, with its advanced ELINT and Reconnaissance pod i am quite sure it was on a snooping mission. The Israelis are famous for this, i think they call it "Test Run". The recent new found friendship between the IDAF and IAF has certainly changed the mindset of the IAF, most probably they borrowed this from the Israelis.

But what many people don't realize here is how close the IAF and PAF came close to engaging each other, the Government(must give credit to them) played a huge role in putting the fire out. After this incident, every squadron was put on a Red Alert. Every plane was loaded with munitions and gassed up, PAF started patrolling the border 24/7 and were aggressively maneuvering their planes near the border which they usually avoid. Forward Bases were activated and SAM's/Ground Radars were deployed on front line positions. The pilots were sleeping with their boots on. Contacts with Friendly Countries(not going to name who) were activated regarding assistance.

I dont know much how the IAF responded but i do know that they were also patrolling their borders 24/7 but they didn't violate the International Borders. Thank God the incident didn't escalate into a full fledged fire fight because either way both countries would have ended up being the losers. Should also give credit to the pilots of both sides for keeping their heads cool and not giving into the temptation .

Interesting..
Since from what I heard this was a probing mission, and usually is undertaken by smaller numbers of aircraft rather than a full fledged package.
Since what you describe is a complete strike package and that amount of effort is usually put into an operational mission, meaning the Mig-29's would have engaged and we would have had a war on our hands.
What I heard was a simple probing mission with two jets, lock on was maintained but the GoP had given strict RoE's not to fire unless fired upon or engaged.
The situation was critical though and yes friendly nations were informed that their help in material form may be needed to avert us going nuclear in case war broke out.

 

[Donatello]

As a matter of fact India has insignificant lift capability compared to what is needed for the size of Armed Forces that India has. The ratio is absolutely pathetic compared to what is needed to execute doctrines like Cold Start.

This goes right from transport planes to transport helos.

It is in this direction that the C-17 is being purchased. The MTA is being attempted, Mi 17's are being build, et all. C-17 is for Very Heavy Lift Category which are needed to transport guns and tanks which Il-76/78's cannot.

Within 10 years, there will be a significant change in India's lift capabilities.

C-17s have it's limitations when it comes to transporting tanks. Not to mention the heavy weight Arjun if IA gets it. Plus transporting two tanks is just too expensive to justify for the fuel costs. C-17s are ideal for lifting troops into battle and delivering supplies to vital points.


Most modern tanks are designed with increased range in mind, and in case of Pakistan, Al-khalid is 400km+. Considering our small size and noting the number of formations near to Indian border, we don't need C-17s for any tanks.


In any case, C-17s are useful for moving, say, aircraft components, artillery pieces, mobile radars, counter battery radars, stuff that is not usually deployed in peace time, but become necessary to deploy in a full out war.


Also, Indian C-17s are to replace IL76s which are already out dated. Lets see how it works for them.

But Pakistan needs More C-130s as recent floods have shown we need both more helicopters and Planes to transport goods.

 

[anathema]

C-17s have it's limitations when it comes to transporting tanks. Not to mention the heavy weight Arjun if IA gets it. Plus transporting two tanks is just too expensive to justify for the fuel costs. C-17s are ideal for lifting troops into battle and delivering supplies to vital points.

Arjun will be deployed purely as a defensive attack -- i.e it will not leave its territory and neither will it make any ingress on the enemy territory. T90 is the designated offensive tank. C17 should be able to lift those , i dont know how many.

And ohh nothing is expensive during war -- and everything is justified. C17 will be transporting tanks only during real war time.

 

[Contrarian]

C-17s have it's limitations when it comes to transporting tanks. Not to mention the heavy weight Arjun if IA gets it. Plus transporting two tanks is just too expensive to justify for the fuel costs. C-17s are ideal for lifting troops into battle and delivering supplies to vital points.

Yes they are. IAF nonetheless has this to claim-about putting in armour.

Also, Indian C-17s are to replace IL76s which are already out dated. Lets see how it works for them.

No, they are not replacing Il-76's. They are being added separate to the Il-76/78's. That is why i mentioned the Very Heavy Lift Category.

But Pakistan needs More C-130s as recent floods have shown we need both more helicopters and Planes to transport goods.

Yes they do. As does India. Therefore India signed a contract in 2008/9 to build over 80 Mi-17 V-5's.

The status of MTA is not clear. There will be one medium lift-20tons-plane which will form the bulk of India's transport fleet. It was supposed to be MTA. Now its not sure, could be the C-130 as well. The 6 C-130's purchased earlier are only for spec-ops.